Nordic Insurance: Gjensidige most positively geared - CS

Topdanmark A/S

02/07/2020 07:31

** Credit Suisse forecasts COVID-19 impact on Q2 combined
ratios to range between 0.2 ppts and 2.0 ppts for Nordic
insurers on an underwriting level 
    ** It expects Gjensidige  GJFS.OL  ("outperform") to be most
positively geared from an earnings perspective given its larger
investment portfolio and medium-sized COVID-19 impact
    ** The brokerage assesses reduced motor claims, content and
accident claims, and increased travel claims 
    ** For travel claims it assumes loss equivalent to two
thirds of the level of losses seen in Q1 with exception of Tryg
 TRYG.CO  which has reportedly taken the majority of its travel
claims in Q1 
    ** CS says lower motor claims frequency benefits reduce over
time from 3.5-4.5% of combined ratio levels seen in March,
reducing by 1 ppts a month and largely back to normal levels in
June
    ** Adds Tryg ("underperform") to be the most impacted,
largely from lower motor frequency 
    ** CS reiterates "neutral" on Sampo  SAMPO.HE  as it
believes future divided progression remains uncertain and upside
potential from Nordea  NDAFI.HE  stake has reduced 
    ** The brokerage keeps "underperform" on Topdanmark  TOP.CO 
saying deterioration in the company's claims trend will continue

 ((joanna.wodzicka@tr.com))