** Australia's Treasury Wine Estates TWE.AX falls 8.8% to A$5.035, lowest since December 23; stock down 6.1% so far this week
** UBS downgrades luxury winemaker to "sell" from "neutral", cuts price target to A$4.75 from A$5.25
** Says Penfolds grey market supply has risen significantly in China as the supply chain has not been managed, indicating less local demand built in new markets
** Market execution in the U.S. mixed, with doubts rising on the financial health of key U.S. distributor, Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC) - UBS
** Brokerage says net debt to EBITDA ratio forecast for H1FY26 is 2.5x, above its target range of 1.5x-2x
** Says industry-wide decline in alcohol demand and underperformance of wine pose significant challenge for co
** TWE down 3.9% YTD
(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)
((Keshav.singhchundawat@thomsonreuters.com))