Morningstar cuts Treasury Wine Estates' fair value, flags weaker earnings outlook

Treasury Wine Estates

09/06/2026 20:42

** Morningstar cuts Australia's Treasury Wine Estates TWE.AX fair value by 18% to A$7 per share on lower mid-cycle earnings, profitability
** The investment research firm lowers FY26 underlying Earnings Before Interest and Taxes forecast by 2% to A$487 million ($342.12 million); cuts FY27 and FY28 estimates by 13% and 24%, respectively
** Says cuts largely reflect impact of commercial wine exits over next two years
** Morningstar sees weaker shipments in the U.S. and China in near term as the firm reduces distributor inventory levels
** Says earnings can improve from FY28 as inventory normalises; sees current demand headwinds as temporary
** Six of 15 analysts rate the stock "buy" or higher, nine "hold"; their median PT is A$5.20, according to data compiled by LSEG
** Stock down 11.6% YTD, as of last close


($1 = 1.4235 Australian dollars)

 (Reporting by Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru)
 ((Roshan.Thomas@thomsonreuters.com;))