Jefferies warns Australia's Treasury Wine Estates on soft China demand

Treasury Wine Estates

28/01/2026 18:54

** Brokerage Jefferies sees Australia's Treasury Wine Estates TWE.AX being pressured by soft luxury wine exports to China, citing sluggish consumer confidence and fewer drinking occasions flagged by Wine Australia

** Wine Australia reports a 12% year-on-year decline in the value of luxury wine exports to China in 4Q25, with the Chinese wine market now only a third of its size compared to five years ago

** Jefferies analysts highlight that soft demand in China, coupled with challenges in the U.S. market, adds pressure despite Treasury Wine Estates' undemanding valuation

** Luxury wine reallocation to smaller Asian markets shows promise, with a 134% increase in export value, though these regions remain too minor to offset losses in China, according to Wine Australia

** Stock down 28.42% so far this year, as of last close

(Reporting by Roushni Nair in Bengaluru)

((Roushni.nair@thomsonreuters.com))