MS, Jefferies cut PT for Australia's Treasury Wine Estates on China, US concerns

Treasury Wine Estates

14/10/2025 02:04

** Analysts at Morgan Stanley slash their price target for Australia's Treasury Wine Estates TWE.AX to A$6.90 from A$8.70; Jefferies cuts PT to A$8.50 from A$10

** TWE's shares rise 0.2% to A$5.94 after falling over 15% on Monday

** Morgan Stanley says withdrawal of guidance for 2026 creates further uncertainty around FY26 and FY27 earnings profile

** Lowers FY26 and FY27 EBITS forecasts by 8% and 10%, respectively,  citing weaker-than-expected China Penfolds trends and net sales revenue impact of exit of its California distributor, Republic National Distributing Company

** While Jefferies forecasts TWE's FY26 EBITS of A$722 million ($470.74 million), nearly a 6% fall vs previous year

** MS adds, risks remain of further downgrades, albeit maintains equal-weight rating on valuation of TWE

** TWE down 47.5% YTD

($1 = 1.5337 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

((Keshav.singhchundawat@thomsonreuters.com))