Citi sees winter weather, storms hitting Nordic insurers in Q4

Tryg A/S

11/01/2024 10:07

** Citigroup expects winter weather and high claim frequency
to hit Nordic insurers' Q4 results, with Gjensidige  GJFG.OL 
("sell") and Topdanmark  TOP.CO  ("neutral") facing the biggest
downside risk
    ** With heightened claims driven by a harsh and early winter
in Norway as well as a Danish storm surge, the broker expects
weather losses to be materially above budget across the sector
    ** Citi issues downside catalyst watches on Gjensidige's and
Topdanmark's Q4 results, expecting higher claims frequency and
deterioration in underlying loss ratios
    ** It also sees Gjensidige's dividend at 6% below consensus
    ** Citi raises Gjensidige's TP by 18% to NOK 165.3, and
Topdanmark's by 14% to DKK 346.7, while cutting estimates for
2024 net income by 4% for the former and 2% for the latter
    ** Its top pick is Denmark's Tryg  TRYG.CO  ("buy") due to
its consistent margin improvement delivery; it raises TP by 10%
to DKK 164.1
    ** Citi reiterates "neutral" for Sampo  SAMPO.HE  and raises
TP by 5% to EUR 41.8, noting the Finnish group has so far
managed to maintain P&C margin improvement despite rising
inflation

 (Reporting by Elsa Ohlen)
 ((elsa.ohlen@thomsonreuters.com;))