Nordic insurers: Citi favors Topdenmark, Gjensidige on negative catalyst watch

Tryg A/S

05/10/2023 10:35

** Citi Research expects a mixed outlook for Nordic life
insurers, with Gjensidige  GJFG.OL  facing downside risks,
Topdanmark  TOP.CO  poised for gains, and Tryg  TRYG.CO  and
Sampo  SAMPO.HE  holding steady
        ** Overall, it sees Nordic insurers to be affected by
materially higher than normal weather losses, with generally
softer comps for underlying claims ratios in 3Q 
  
    ** The brokerage issues a negative catalyst watch on
Gjensidige ("underweight"), forecasting a 390bps deterioration
in underlying claims ratio, worse than 2Q23, and downside risk
to weather, reinstatement premium and its pension result    
    ** It has an "equalweight" stance on Tryg and Sampo,
expecting similar underlying trends to 2Q for both 
    ** The brokerage is most upbeat on Topdanmark
("overweight"), pointing to anticipated improvement in
underlying claims ratio, changes to discounting practices and a
turnaround in travel claims 
        ** "3Q22 was a particularly bad quarter for travel
claims with SAS baggage issues, which should provide a tailwind
to 3Q23," Citi says 
  

 (Reporting by Jesus Calero)
 ((Jesus.calero@thomsonreuters.com))