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Berlin’s 2022 Uniper bailout could turn profitable

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Pierre Briancon

BERLIN, May 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Trying to sell a big energy company while missiles fly over the Gulf may sound counter-intuitive. German utility Uniper UN0k.DE, bailed out by the government in 2022 to the tune of 13.5 billion euros ($16 billion), is going ahead regardless. It will either attempt to convince public markets again, or sell itself to private investors. In either case Berlin seems to be on the verge of bagging a hefty profit from its crisis takeover of the company four years ago.

Uniper is a shadow of its former self — sales in the first quarter of the year amounted to 17.3 billion euros, just over 10% of what they were in the same period of 2022. But after absorbing the shock of the interruption of Russian gas, it is profitable again, due in part to its UK and Swedish markets, and a focus on renewable energy. The group reiterated last week its target to reach EBITDA in the range of 1 to 1.3 billion euros this year.

Based on peers E.ON EONGn.DE, RWE RWEG.DE and Engie ENGIE.PA, which trade at a multiple of 8.7 their average EBITDA over the next 12 months, Uniper could be valued at between 9 and 11 billion euros. Add more than 4 billion euros of net cash currently in the company’s coffers, and the equity could be worth between 13 and 15 billion euros. The group already repaid 2.6 billion euros to the German government last year, so the upcoming sale means that Berlin stands to bag a profit of as much as 5 billion euros.

The government said it had not decided yet whether it would send Uniper back to public markets or sell its stake to one or several private players. As part of the original bailout deal with the European Commission, Berlin is forced to shrink its stake down to 25% by 2028 — which it still intends to do. According to Reuters, Norway's Equinor EQNR.OL and Abu Dhabi's TAQA TAQA.AD are among the interested parties, as well as Brookfield BN.TO, the Canadian asset manager.

The would-be buyers have until June 12 to confirm their interest. But at the higher end of Uniper’s EBITDA estimates it already looks like Berlin could bag a 35% return on its 2022 investment. A nice ending for a crisis nationalisation that took the government several months to figure out.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Germany kicked off the sales process for ‌bailed-out energy firm Uniper on May 19, paving the way for what could become one of Europe's biggest deals this year.

Berlin had to nationalise Uniper during Europe's 2022 energy crisis for a ​total of 13.5 billion euros ($15.7 billion) in order to save it ​from collapse after its former main supplier of gas, Gazprom, stopped ⁠deliveries.

Suitors have until June 12, 1200 CET (1000 GMT), to submit a letter of ​intent to JPMorgan and UBS, the government said in an official note placed in ​the Financial Times, adding that a sale or a listing were being considered for the 99.12% stake it holds in Uniper.

European utility shares have shot up in the last year https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/zgpolxnngvd/chart.png

(Editing by George Hay; Production by Streisand Neto )

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on BRIANCON/pierre.briancon@thomsonreuters.com))

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