Analysis: U.S. and allies turn to deterring war with North Korea as options for preventing nuclear tests dwindle

US Nuclear

31/10/2022 07:31

By Josh Smith
       SEOUL, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The prospect of a new North
Korean nuclear test underscores the limited options for
Washington and its allies, who have embraced "deterring"
Pyongyang through major military drills that some current and
former officials say may exacerbate tensions.
    South Korea said in October that a new nuclear test would
face an “unparalleled” response from the allies - but it’s
unclear what measures would not retread old ground.
    Years of sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and shows of
military force have not prevented North Korea from developing
and expanding an arsenal of nuclear weapons and long-range
ballistic missiles that could reach the United States.
    Now that the North's nuclear weapons are mature and
deployed, the United States and its allies are looking to simply
dissuade the North from military action. 
    South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said last week
the focus of efforts to deal with North Korea should be shifted
from curbing nuclear weapons development to deterring their use.
    “We plan to expand the scope of our involvement in
intelligence sharing, planning, exercises and drills,” he told a
panel of lawmakers. 
    A ministry official told Reuters that Lee was not throwing
his support behind the idea of acknowledging North Korea as a
nuclear state, but rather was emphasizing the immediate need to
prevent North Korea from using the weapons.
    “Lee is saying out loud what policy makers in Seoul and
Washington are thinking — namely that while denuclearization is
the ultimate goal, deterring North Korea is the here-and-now
priority,” said Daniel Russel, a former senior U.S. diplomat.
    FOCUS ON DETERRENCE
    The United States and South Korea are in "lockstep" in their
efforts to seek the "complete denuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula," a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security
Council said when asked about Lee's comments.
    “We continue to prioritize diplomacy, but simultaneously
continue to jointly strengthen deterrence and work to limit the
advancement of (North Korea's) unlawful weapons programmes,” the
spokesperson said.
    Some analysts saw Lee's comments as the latest sign that
Washington and Seoul are facing the reality that North Korea is
a nuclear state. But they noted the focus so far has remained on
deterrence rather than risk reduction, such as negotiating to
cap the number of North Korean weapons and prevent them from
proliferating.
    U.S. State Department spokesman Vedant Patel declined to
specify what measures Washington would take if North Korea
tested a nuclear bomb for the first time since 2017, but cited
sanctions and military drills as examples of tools it can use to
“hold North Korea accountable."
    Observers expect China and Russia would condemn a new
nuclear test, but are unlikely to back new sanctions, which they
say have failed and only harm ordinary North Koreans. 
    The newly released U.S. Nuclear Posture Review says Kim Jong
Un's regime would be annihilated if it ever attacked with
nuclear weapons.    
    'TURN THE VOLUME DOWN'
    In early October, the commander of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet
said the rare deployment of an aircraft carrier to South Korea
“probably precipitated” part of a “tantrum” from Kim Jong Un. 
    Another major drill began on Monday with hundreds of South
Korean and U.S. warplanes, including a rare deployment of
American F-35B fighters.  
    The drills, a centrepiece of the allied response, have been
met with new rounds of missile tests or military exercises by
North Korea.
    Patel has called suggestions that the drills are
exacerbating tensions "baloney." Duyeon Kim, with the U.S.-based
Center for a New American Security, noted that rising tensions
are not always correlated with drills.
    "Normalizing combined drills strengthens readiness and
publicizing them again is intended to deter North Korea and
reassure the South Korean people," Kim said.
    One senior former U.S. defence official told Reuters that
although the stepped up drills ensure readiness, the publicity
and chest-beating surrounding them can be counterproductive. 
    "They're doing it because they want to send a message to
North Korea, hey, we mean business," he said. "But it's not
helping."
    When political leaders said drills had been scaled back in
previous years to enable diplomacy, that often meant that the
exercises were just not being publicized, the former official
said, adding that current rhetoric seems to have gone too far in
the other direction.
         "A way to reduce tension is to sort of turn the volume
down a little bit, and see if that helps."
  
 (Reporting by Josh Smith; Additional reporting by David
Brunnstrom in Washington. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
 ((JoshSmith1@thomsonreuters.com;))