Live Markets: EU's touted 15% tariff might already be priced into earnings
25/07/2025 11:46
STOXX 600 down 0.4% Puma sinks after results BoJ, Fed meet next week Wall St futures steady Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com EU'S TOUTED 15% TARIFF MIGHT ALREADY BE PRICED INTO EARNINGS It emerged this week that the European Union is close to a trade deal with the United States on a broad 15% tariff rate, well below the 30% threatened by Trump earlier this month. Barclays equity strategists have crunched the numbers and concluded that level might already be priced into earnings estimates, which have been declining over the last six months. Barclays' model, which assumes a 15% tariff would result in a 50% equivalent fall in U.S. sales, predicts EPS growth would fall by approximately 3.4%. "Consensus estimates for MSCI Europe 2025 EPS growth have already declined by -6.3% over the past six months," Barclays says, "implying that a 15% tariff scenario may now be largely reflected into estimates." "At the sector level, our analysis highlights autos, consumer durables (i.e. luxury), construction materials and tech hardware where estimates look the most conservative already among the U.S. merchandise goods export-oriented sectors." (Samuel Indyk) ***** EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS: CITI SEES BITCOIN HITTING $135K CLICK HERE EUROPEAN SHARES DROP, EARNINGS WEIGH CLICK HERE EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES SOFT BEFORE KEY WEEK CLICK HERE MARKETS CALM AFTER GIDDY WEEK OF TRADE DEALS CLICK HERE Tokyo inflation over the last five years https://reut.rs/4lLZnbd European stocks fall as earnings weigh https://reut.rs/3H3GMYO