Good morning! It's a very busy day for updates.
The Agenda is complete.
Finished for today, thanks everyone.
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Shell (LON:SHEL) (£152bn) | Re. media reports, Shell has no intention of making an offer for BP and has not been in talks. | ||
3i (LON:III) (£38bn) | Action LFL sales +6.9% YTD, net new store openings of 111. Remainder of PE portfolio in line. | ||
Associated British Foods (LON:ABF) (£14.7bn) | Planning to shut Vivergo bioethanol unit due to US trade deal impact. In talks with govt. | ||
Inchcape (LON:INCH) (£2.5bn) | H1 “resilient”, limited tariff impact so far. Nine distribution wins YTD. FY25 outlook unchanged. | ||
Balfour Beatty (LON:BBY) (£2.5bn) | £833m contract from Technip for Net Zero Teeside Power - 742MW gas-fired generation with CCS. | ||
Serco (LON:SRP) (£1.98bn) | H1 rev +2%, adj op profit >£140m. Order intake c.£3bn, FY op profit exp c.£260m (unchanged). | ||
Chemring (LON:CHG) (£1.5bn) | Expansion plan for Nobel military explosive business moving to concept selection phase. | ||
Sirius Real Estate (LON:SRE) (£1.46bn) | Bought industrial site for €12.9m in Geilenkirchen (DE), 9.3% net initial yield. Nearby NATO base. | ||
Patria Private Equity Trust (LON:PPET) (£838m) | NAV tot. return +2.6%, NAV +1.5% to 791.8p (£1,195m). £108m realisations, £107m drawdown. | ||
Moonpig (LON:MOON) (£804m) | SP down 11% Rev +2.6%, adj PBT +16% to £67.5m. Active customers +4.4%, AOV +2.1%. FY26 trading in line. | AMBER/GREEN (Graham) I'm leaving my moderately positive stance unchanged even though the market is not very comfortable with today's results, and news that the CEO plans to step down. The key features and potential growth of the core business remains highly attractive, in my view, and we have an "in line" outlook statement. | |
Georgia Capital (LON:CGEO) (£686m) | Selling a 20% stake in Georgia Global Utilities JSC for US$70.4m, completion exp July 25. | ||
Volex (LON:VLX) (£582m) | Rev +19%, adj PBT +13.2% to $87.5m. EVs delivered significant growth. FY26 trading “very good”. | AMBER/GREEN (Roland) Strong results today that appear to be ahead of expectations. Revenue growth appears to have been flattered by prior year destocking in EV/consumer markets, but this is still a good set of numbers in my view. I’m encouraged that this industrial group is maintaining stable returns on capital while investing heavily in expansion. Some macro uncertainty remains, but I think it’s reasonable to price in a positive outlook here and have upgraded our view accordingly. | |
Chrysalis Investments (LON:CHRY) (£553m) | NAVps +8% to 152.6p, NAV -1.5% to £827m. YTD realisations £129m w/ 11.9% of shares repurchased. | ||
Foresight group (LON:FSG) (£476m) | AUM +9% to £13,195m, rev +9%, adj EBITDA +5% to £62.2m. Record £587m retail fundraising. | ||
Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) (£376m) | YTD trading in line with exps, good order book visibility for Q4. Exp FY25 op profit to be in line. | ||
Marlowe (LON:MRL) (£347m) | Continuing ops adj op profit +6% to £20.3m. FY26 broadly in line, margin pressure due min wage/NI. | ||
PZ Cussons (LON:PZC) (£327m) | Received offers but decided not to sell. Will outsource US marketing and distribution to existing partner. | AMBER (Roland) [no section below] Last week I speculated that PZC was struggling to find a buyer for St Tropez due to its poor performance over the last year and – perhaps – dwindling franchise strength. Today’s update confirms the company hasn’t been able to solicit any suitable offers for this self-tanning brand and has decided to keep it in house. An existing US partner will take over responsibility for marketing and distribution in this key market, which seems logical. We’ll have to see whether this U-turn delivers positive results, but I can’t help feeling this decision could have been made much sooner. My confidence in management is low, but I continue to see some turnaround potential here, so will remain neutral. | |
James Latham (LON:LTHM) (£229m) |
“Challenging” year, Q4 stronger. Improved trading continued YTD. FY25 rev flat, PBT -19.8% to £24.3m, EPS -20% to 89.9p. SP Angel forecasts: FY26E revenue £374.2m (prev £359.2m) and EPS 95.2p (prev 94.8p) | AMBER/GREEN (Roland) [no section below] | |
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) (£224m) | Influencer platform acquired for up to $35m, 7x run-rate revenue of $5m. FY25 f’casts unchanged. | ||
Regional REIT (LON:RGL) (£190m) | 7 new lettings and 8 renewals deliver rental income of £1.6m, 6% above estimated rental values. | ||
Inspired (LON:INSE) (£121m) | 81p cash from US PE firm HGGC. 18% premium to rival offer. 33% premium to undisturbed price. | PINK | |
Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SERE) (£89m) | NAV €158.9m (120.1 cents/share). Reduction in capital values particularly for European offices. | ||
Roadside Real Estate (LON:ROAD) (£64m) | Company can realise at least £48m from the sale of its interest in Cambridge Sleep Sciences. | ||
Time Finance (LON:TIME) (£56m) | Strong demand. Revenue and profitability ahead of expectations. Strongly positioned. Forecasts at Cavendish change as follows. FY25 actual results: revenue £37m (forecast £36m). PBT £7.9m (forecast £7.5m). FY26 forecasts: revenue £38.5m (prev: £37m). PBT £8.4m (prev: £8.1m). | GREEN (Graham) [no section below] Relieved to see that I upgraded my stance on this to GREEN in March when it said that full-year results would be at least in line with recently upgraded guidance. It has now beaten that guidance. The company has successfully executed a transition to secured lending (invoice finance and asset finance) where it has enjoyed no shortage of demand. Even better, the growth has been achieved with no cost so far in terms of increased rates of arrears and write-offs. I have no hesitation in staying GREEN on this as I continue to expect quality metrics to grow as the company scales. The usual health warnings apply as with all small lenders. | |
Creo Medical (LON:CREO) (£56m) | 2025 started positively with strong performance in Q1. On track to deliver against goals. | ||
Andrada Mining (LON:ATM) (£48m) | £4.5m from a new investor and a placing to raise an additional £1.5m, all at 3p (8% premium). | ||
Made Tech (LON:MTEC) (£46m) | FY25 rev +20%, EBITDA £3.4m, cash £10.4m, all ahead of exps. FY26 also to be ahead of exps. h2Radnor forecasts: FY25E EPS: 1.21p (prev 0.69p). FY26E EPS: 1.45p (prev 0.87p) | GREEN (Roland) Today’s update has prompted a double-digit increase to EPS estimates for FY25 and FY26. After a disastrous IPO, Made Tech now appears to be delivering strong growth and improved profitability, with the potential to benefit from government spending plans on digitisation. While the shares appear to be fully valued, cash generation is reassuring and I think a positive view can be justified. | |
Cavendish (LON:CAV) (£46m) | Adj. PBT £3.7m on lower costs. £21m cash. “Ideally positioned to benefit from change in sentiment.” | GREEN (Graham) I'm very satisfied with the breakeven result given weak market conditions during the period. And with UK equities possibly coming back into fashion, I'm hopeful that we might see a resurgence in corporate activity. | |
Manolete Partners (LON:MANO) (£39m) | Rev +16%, EBIT +19% (£3m). Net debt £11m. Outlook: indicators of strong flow of insolvency cases. | ||
CT Automotive (LON:CTA) (£30m) | Increasing visibility over FY26. FY25: sales softer than exp’d but on track to meet profit exps. | ||
Atome (LON:ATOM) (£29m) | Zero revs. Company moving from development-stage to “project ready”. Material uncertainty. | (GN) Results to Dec 2024 being published in late June are a red flag. | |
NAHL (LON:NAH) (£22m) | Q1 momentum has continued. The board is confident the full year will be in line with expectations. | ||
Petro Matad (LON:MATD) (£19m) | Heron-1 has continued to produce. Potential concerns raised by PetroChina being addressed. | (GN) Results to Dec 2024 being published in late June are a red flag. | |
Orchard Funding (LON:ORCH) (£14m) | Changes accounting reference date “for operational reasons” from July to January. | ||
Tekmar (LON:TGP) (£8m) | H1 adj. LBITDA £0.7m. FY25 EBITDA “broadly consistent” with FY24. Cavendish forecast unch. |
Graham's Section
Cavendish (LON:CAV)
Up 6% to 12.75p (£49m) - Full Year Results - Graham - GREEN
This was a troubled component of my 2025 watchlist for a few months, but it’s looking much brighter now.
Today’s results help to justify the merger of finnCap and Cenkos, with lower costs resulting in a better profit result. They follow on from the trading update I covered in April.
Highlights:
Revenue £55.6m slightly above FY24 on a like-for-like basis
Cash £21m
Adj. PBT £3.7m (FY24: £1.8m loss).
Actual PBT £0.7m (FY24: £4.3m loss).
Unfortunately, I’m going to have to mark down these results for failing to include a clear breakdown of their adjustments.
They say that adj. PBT excludes “non-cash share-based payments, option revaluation movements, associate and joint venture profits, and non-recurring acquisition costs”.
I can see that there was a share-based payments charge of £2.5m, which alone accounts for nearly all of the adjustments.
That’s not a charge which I’m typically willing to exclude.
So for me in this case, the real PBT figure that I would use is the actual PBT figure, £0.7m.
That might not seem very impressive but the year to March 2025 was another period of drought in the UK capital markets, and I think a breakeven result is decent in those circumstances. I noted recently that Peel Hunt (LON:PEEL) failed to hit breakeven. But historically, Cenkos (now part of Cavendish) was able to flex its costs lower and avoid making a loss, even in the bad years.
I’m pleased to see that this tradition at Cenkos may be continuing in its new form.
Comment from the co-CEOs:
"We have been consistently profitable during FY25. We have delivered an adjusted profit of £3.7m to our shareholders and a competitive compensation ratio of 64% to our staff. We have a debt-free and healthy balance sheet and an exciting pipeline of transactions. The payment of a 0.8p dividend for the year reflects our strong performance and our confidence in the future.
I note that the 0.8p dividend will cost c. £2.7m, a small fraction of the company’s cash balance.
Moving to the outlook, while I’ll quote extensively as I think it’s important for the company itself but also has wider consequences for the markets we cover here:
We have started the new financial year well. The M&A market and pipeline remain strong, supported by rising numbers of entrepreneurs exploring exits and increased private equity activity as firms seek to realise value across their portfolios. We maintain active relationships with around 150 UK private equity firms currently deploying over £50 billion in committed capital…
There are tentative signs of incremental asset allocation to UK equities which will ultimately flow through to smaller and mid-cap companies, especially given their attractive valuations. We believe a combination of continued diversification and the compelling valuation of the UK small and mid-cap sectors will create significant opportunities in the year ahead. We are already seeing this in the new financial year having completed a further 2 IPOs, including the UK's largest IPO in 2025, coupled with an increasingly profitable trading book.
As a leading UK small and mid-cap investment bank, with a platform that is profitable even in challenging markets, Cavendish is ideally positioned to benefit both from this change in sentiment and the ongoing momentum in private markets and will do so from a position of balance sheet strength.
Graham’s view
I take two main things away from these results.
Firstly, the company is again able to generate a breakeven result, even in awful conditions, just like Cenkos did.
The finnCap and Cenkos merger completed in September 2023. So these are the first full set of results since then.
On a like-for-like basis, non-employee administrative costs reduced from £17.6m to £14.8m, i.e. a £3m improvement. We were told last year that the company had locked in £7m of synergies as a result of the merger, but the word synergy is not mentioned in today’s report. I would like to understand where the full £7m of synergies can be identified in current performance. The £3m reduction in non-employee costs is certainly a very good start.
Secondly, I take some comfort from the commentary re: increased asset allocation to UK equities. Of course there is no guarantee that this will feed through to an improved IPO market. But it’s consistent with what I’ve read elsewhere: UK equities might be slowly coming back into fashion, as more investors realise that there are bargains to be had (not just the PE firms picking them off!).
With cash of £21m covering 40% of the market cap, I’m happy to stay GREEN on this. In another IPO boom, I expect the company to do extremely well: as I noted at the time of the April update, finnCap and Cenkos separately earned after-tax profits of c. £6-7m each during IPO boom years. In more normal years, they had earned about £2m each.
Now as a combined group they have new offices in Manchester and Birmingham, improved data analytics capabilities, and the improved purchasing power, negotiating power and economies of scale that come with being a larger organisation.
At 12.75p, the enterprise value at Cavendish is £28m. It’s much closer to fair value now than it was at 8.5p in April, but I remain comfortable with my positive stance.
Edited to add: Sky News reported on Tuesday that Smith and Williamson (S&W) had made an offer recently to buy Cavendish's M&A division. Cavendish then produced a mid-morning RNS, confirming that an offer was made (price not given) and that it was rejected. My analysis does not depend on a takeover taking place, but I would not be surprised or terribly unhappy if a generous bid came in for the entire company! I do agree with Cavendish that an offer that would result in a break-up is not ideal - they should be adding to their existing capabilities, not breaking up and separating them. I also think that the offer from S&W helps provide evidence that CAV might currently be undervalued. Perhaps there have been other proposals that never made it to the press!
Moonpig (LON:MOON)
Down 11% to 217p (£717m) - Final Results & CEO Succession - Graham - AMBER/GREEN
I wanted to keep this to a short section but there are a few things to discuss!
Background: I nearly went GREEN on this in April, but kept it AMBER/GREEN as the balance sheet wasn’t all that strong. The company was buying back shares despite having modest leverage.
Today’s results show revenue growth of 2.6% (£350m) and an adjusted PBT of £67.5m.
The adjusted PBT gets wiped out by a £57m impairment charge against the goodwill in the “Experiences” division.
Therefore, Moonpig’s actual PBT, after the impairment charge and other items, is only £3m.
The impairment charge occurred in H1, and was disclosed in the interim results, so it’s not really news. But we should highlight it as Experiences is clearly still having a tough time.
From the Business Review:
The Experiences segment continues to face a challenging market environment, with a proposition more exposed to cyclical pressures than the rest of the Group. The transformation of Experiences will continue, with encouraging progress underway in expanding the product proposition and enhancing the customer experience.
The online greeting card market is less troubled and has a clear growth driver:
We operate in a structurally high-growth and underpenetrated market. The online card market is still in its infancy, with only 6% penetration by volume and 15% by value in the UK. We are driving and capturing this long-term secular shift from offline to online through innovation in technology and data.
When I look at the revenue mix I see cards growing by 8% and gifts attached to cards up 5%.
The weak points are standalone gifts (down 11%) and experiences, down 19%.
Performance against expectations: the company doesn’t outline this explicitly. Today’s results for FY25 are below expectations for revenue, but above expectations for adj. PBT.
Turning to the balance sheet, we are reminded that the company has leverage of 1x, which it considers low enough to justify a sizeable buyback in FY26 (£60m) after already buying back £25m in FY25.
Net debt is £96m, or £82m excluding leases.
Outlook:
Since the start of the year, trading across the Group has been in line with our expectations, including strong Father's Day trading. Moonpig is growing at double-digit levels and Greetz revenue is in line with the prior year. At Experiences, we continue to build on recent operational momentum.
For FY26, we expect Group Adjusted EBITDA to grow at a mid-single digit percentage rate and growth in Adjusted earnings per share at between 8% and 12%, with continued strong free cash flow generation funding ongoing investment in our growth strategy and consistent returns to shareholders.
With respect to the medium term, we continue to target double-digit revenue growth, Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25% to 27% and mid-teens growth in Adjusted EPS.
CEO succession: with the shares down 10% today, I suspect some of this is to do with the loss of the CEO. His notice period is 12 months, though, so there is plenty of time to look for a successor. He has been CEO since 2018 (the company did not IPO until 2021), and owns 1% of the company. Not a very large overhang if he decides to sell.
Graham’s view
Despite the c. 10% fall in the share price today, I’m inclined to leave this at AMBER/GREEN.
My reason is that the outlook is in line with expectations - so I’m not treating this as a profit warning.
Additionally, the results that just occurred were a miss on revenues but a beat on profitability - again, I don’t treat this as a profit warning.
The loss of the CEO is a blow but with a very long notice period, it’s not an emergency.
Finally, the problems in the Experiences division don't take away, in my view, from the attractiveness of the core business (remember that it controls the majority of market share in its niche, both in the UK and the Netherlands).
On balance, therefore, I think I can leave my stance unchanged, even if the market is a little uncomfortable with today’s results.
Roland's Section
Volex (LON:VLX)
Up 24% to 391p (£718m) - Preliminary Group Results - Roland - AMBER/GREEN
Volex plc (AIM: VLX), the specialist integrated manufacturer of critical power and data transmission products, announces its preliminary results for the 52 weeks ended 30 March 2025 ("FY2025").
Today’s results from Volex appear to be ahead of expectations, with adjusted earnings of 36.3 cents per share nearly 10% above Stockopedia’s consensus estimate of 33.2c.
Shares in this electrical cabling specialist have fallen out of favour since President Trump was elected in November last year. They suffered sharply when tariffs were announced in April. But the market reaction to today’s full-year results has seen the Volex share price complete a round trip back to levels last seen before the US elections:
Are investors right to be taking a more confident stance? Today’s numbers certainly highlight some strong momentum over the last year.
Strong growth
Group revenue rose by an impressive 19% to $1,086.5m for the year ended 31 March. Encouragingly, this included 11% organic growth, driven by strong performances in the group’s electric vehicles (+40.2%) and consumer electricals (+9.6%) divisions.
The group’s consumer electricals offering is said to have benefited from “strong market positioning and competitiveness”.
The remainder of last year’s revenue growth was contributed by a full-year contribution from Turkish firm Murat Ticaret, which Volex acquired for €178m in 2023.
Most of this revenue growth dropped through to profits, despite some pressure on costs:
Underlying operating profit +18.4% to $106.2m
Underlying operating margin: 9.8% (FY24: 9.8%)
Underlying pre-tax profit up 13.2% to $87.6m
Reported pre-tax profit up 24.6% to $64.3m
Underlying earnings up 7.7% to 36.3 cents per share, reflecting the dilution from last year’s equity raise
As always, there are a few things to unpack here.
At an underlying level, the smaller increase in underlying pre-tax profit versus operating profit is largely due to a 42% increase in finance costs to $23.5m, reflecting a higher level of debt during the year.
However, year-end net debt was down to $174.8m, from $204.5m at the half-year. So in the absence of any further acquisitions, perhaps this figure will continue to trend lower. In any case, a year-end net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.0x looks manageable to me.
In addition to the increased finance costs, last year’s reported profits were also held back by $23m of adjustments (vs $25.8m in FY24).
Despite being described as one-off costs, most of these seem to be recurring! While I might accept the amortisation of acquired intangibles, most of the remaining costs below strike me as being business-as-usual for an acquisitive industrial group. I wouldn’t adjust them out:
On this basis, my calculations give an adjusted pre-tax profit of $74.5m, 14.6% above the equivalent figure of $65m for last year. Still a good result.
Profitability & cash flow: free cash flow was poor last year, as Volex continued to plough cash into expanding and upgrading its facilities. My sums suggest underlying FCF of $27.8m last year, from a net profit of $49m. This reflects $42.9m of capex, up from $27.5m in the previous year, plus $10.9m of deferred consideration on acquisitions.
Fortunately, this extra spending seems to be delivering acceptable returns on capital. I calculate ROCE of 13.8% for FY25. That looks respectable to me for a business of this kind and is slightly above average for the last six years:
Divisional review
Electric Vehicles are not the company’s largest segment, but they did deliver the strongest growth last year with revenue up 40% to $172.9m.
This growth was supported by new programme wins with new and existing customers. These included “a leading global North American automotive manufacturer” that Volex is supplying with high-voltage connectors from its upgraded plant in Mexico.
However, EV-related sales also appear to have benefited from a favourable comparison last year, when sales were held back by customer destocking.
Consumer Electricals contribute the largest element of revenue, with sales rising by 9.6% to $257m last year. This was driven by higher volumes, plus some pass-through of higher costs.
Again, the comparison benefited from destocking in the previous year. Last year’s revenue was slightly below the $259.6m peak seen in FY23.
Medical sales fell by 4.9% to $168m after “an exceptionally strong comparative period in FY2024”. Customers are said to be adjusting their inventories (destocking?) but Volex expects this situation to start stabilising towards the end of this calendar year.
Complex Industrial Technology - this is the group’s second largest vertical and saw sales rise by 14.5% to $244.4m last year. Growth was driven by strong demand from Data Centres, where sales rose by 33% and accounted for nearly half of all segment revenue.
Off-Highway revenue rose by 50% to $244.2m, although this largely reflected the acquisition of Murat Ticaret. Only 3.6% of this increase was organic growth.
Demand in agricultural and construction sectors was said to be subdued during the year, although European bus and coach demand was stronger.
Geographic exposure
Volex doesn’t report segmental profits for the operating divisions listed above, preferring to segment results geographically.
This year’s results show that 46% of revenue and 58% of operating profit came from North America, up from 41% and 47% respectively in FY24. This increased exposure to the US seems to carry both risk and opportunity, in my view, depending on how macro events pan out.
Outlook
Executive Chairman (and 25% shareholder) Nat Rothschild says he believes Volex has “attractive growth opportunities” and remains “firmly on track to deliver our five-year strategic plan”. This includes achieving annual revenue of $1.2bn by the end of FY27, implying revenue growth of 5% annualised over FY26 and FY27.
Tariffs don’t seem a major concern:
The Group currently expects limited direct impact from the evolving tariff situation, given its global footprint, manufacturing flexibility and strong customer lock-in.
Trading so far in the 2025/26 financial year is said to be “very good”, but unfortunately Volex stops short of making an explicit statement regarding expectations for the current year.
I don’t have access to any broker notes for Volex, so it’s not clear to me if the current consensus forecasts on Stockopedia remain accurate after today’s results. Prior to today at least, market expectations were for a marked slowdown in growth this year:
Roland’s view
This looks like a strong set of results to me, although I feel that the combination of prior year destocking and a large acquisition have probably flattered the underlying volume growth in the business. I expect a more modest increase this year.
Even so, I don’t see much to dislike and am impressed that Volex still appears to be generating low-teens returns on capital employed while investing heavily in growth.
I took a neutral view on this stock in April, citing a lack of clarity on the near-term outlook. To some extent, that concern remains true today, but given today’s apparent earnings beat and strong market reaction I think it’s fair to price in a modest upgrade to the outlook – I’ll be watching for changes to consensus over the coming days.
Reflecting these factors, I’m going to upgrade our view to AMBER/GREEN.
Made Tech (LON:MTEC)
Up 15% to 35p (£53m) - Full Year Trading Update - Roland - GREEN
Trading ahead of recently upgraded expectations
Today’s update from this digital service provider to the UK public sector includes an upgrade to expectations for both FY25 (y/e 31 May) and FY26. A nice double whammy!
Ed has also flagged up in the comments today that Made Tech is almost hitting the three setup rules he highlighted last week for trading ahead of expectation situations. These have delivered an average 36% gain so far this year on 12 previous setups.
Trading update & revised expectations
FY25 expectations (y/e 31 May 25): full-year revenue is now expected to be around £46.4m. That’s a 20% increase on last year and 8% above previous consensus for £43m. Today’s upgrade follows a previous revenue upgrade with the company’s AGM Statement in November 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 is now expected to be c.£3.4m, 13% ahead of previous consensus of £3.0m. This means the group’s EBITDA margin has increased from 6.2% to c.7.3%.
Finally, year-end net cash was £10.4m, ahead of previous forecasts for £9.2m.
Order book: Made Tech won over £82m of new sales bookings last year, more than double the £36m achieved in FY24 (a poor year). This figure represents contracted sales to be delivered by FY29.
Recent wins have included an £8.4m three-year contract with the Legal Aid Agency and some smaller contracts with clients such as the Department of Health and Social Care.
As a result, the group’s contracted backlog has increased to c.£92m (FY24: £60.6m). This represents contracted revenue that’s yet to be recognised.
Prospects for further sales growth could be aided by the recent government spending review:
The Board is encouraged by the recent publication of the Spending Review and notes the UK Governments' commitment to the digital transformation of the public sector. The Board believes that the Company is well positioned to benefit from this increased investment and anticipates that the Group will deliver profitable growth and continue to be free cash flow positive throughout FY26 and FY27.
Updated estimates: the strong order book is supporting an upgrade to expectations for the current year (FY26).
While Made Tech doesn’t provide explicit financial guidance for FY26 today, advisory h2Radnor has provided an updated note today – many thanks. This is paid research, so we can assume it is closely-aligned with management expectations:
FY25E EPS +75% to 1.21p
FY26E EBITDA +16% to £3.9m
FY26E EPS +66% to 1.45p
These figures put Made Tech on a FY25E P/E of 29, falling to a FY26E P/E of 24.
Roland’s view
Ed’s three rules are:
Company says it’s trading “ahead of expectations”
Share price jumps at least 10% on the day
The StockRank is above 75
MadeTech just falls short on its StockRank today, but I would not be too surprised if the StockRank edged higher when updated forecasts feed through to our consensus figures. The previous trend for earnings forecasts was not that encouraging, so today’s upgrade represents a significant improvement:
I’m also encouraged by today’s guidance from the company for positive free cash flow in FY26 and FY27. Today’s FY25 guidance for net cash of c.£10m means that cash represents nearly 20% of the market cap. I find that reassuring, given that this business has not yet reported a statutory profit since its 2021 IPO:
Graham upgraded Made Tech to AMBER/GREEN in April. Given the strength of today’s upgrade and the seemingly supportive external conditions, I’m going to upgrade our view to be fully positive today. GREEN.
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