Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 23 July 2025) - PGH, CMCL, BREE, JDW, INF

Good morning! Let's see if we get another day without any major profit warnings.

Today's Agenda is complete. Breedon are at the lower end of expectations but apart from that, there are a lot of "in line" updates, and even a few upgrades! So it's another day of mostly good news, I think.

Today's report is now complete.

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Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Informa (LON:INF) (£10.8bn)	Half Year Results	Total revenue +20% to £2,036m with underlying revenue +7.8% Adj op profit +24% to £578.9m. FY25 exps upgraded: Underlying revenue growth +6% (prev +5%) Total revenue unch. at c.£4bn Adjusted earnings growth maintained at c.10%	AMBER (Roland) This FTSE 100 trade show, data and publishing group enjoyed a strong first half and has upgraded its guidance for full-year underlying revenue growth slightly today. However, a £484m impairment charge suggests to me that last year’s combination with TechTarget may have been poorly judged. With the stock trading on c.16x FY25E earnings and showing very mixed quality metrics on the StockReport, I’ve echoed the StockRanks and taken a neutral view on this initial review.
Fresnillo (LON:FRES) (£10.8bn)	Q2 production report	Silver +1% to 12.5moz, gold +1% to 147.7koz. FY25 outlook unch, gold towards top end of guidance.
Canal+ SA (LON:CAN) (£2.2bn)	Update on MultiChoice Mandatory Tender Offer	Received approval from South African Competition Tribunal re. Acquisition of MultiChoice Group.
Alpha International (LON:ALPH) (£1.4bn)	Recommended Cash Acquisition(11am)	Recommended cash offer from Corpay for 4,250p per share.
Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) (£1.4bn)	Q2 Production Report	Silver -5.4% to 2,448koz, gold +0.6% to 66.8koz. Mara Rosa processing remains suspended.
Breedon (LON:BREE) (£1.34bn)	Interim Results	LFL rev -3%, adj PBT -20% to £48.9m. FY25 to be at lower end of exps (EBITDA £291.4-311.5m)	BLACK (AMBER/RED) (Roland) The aggregates specialist has warned of challenging market conditions in all of its markets and is now guiding for profits at the lower end of expectations. I’m a little concerned by the sharp rise in costs and elevated leverage following a recent acquisition. The shares are now trading close to NAV, which is a level I might normally consider attractive for this business. However, the combination of weaker trading and higher debt means I think there’s a risk of further downgrades to come, so I’m taking a cautious view until we know more.
J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) (£882m)	Trading Update	LFL sales +5.1% over last 12 weeks, YTD sales +5.1%. FY profit to be in line with exps. Y/end net debt exp £720m (H1: c.£700m) Consensus forecasts suggest FY25 EPS of 48.6p (+3.8% vs FY24)	AMBER (Roland) [no section below] Today’s update seems to strike a relatively upbeat tone. I’ve noticed this from a couple of the other listed pub chains recently too, so perhaps their scale and value focus is allowing them to cope slightly better with cost headwinds than smaller hospitality operators. Chairman Tim Martin says the business benefited from good weather during the last quarter and interestingly notes that volumes have now (finally) risen above pre-pandemic levels. He also notes improved food sales, with a “clucking good performance” from chicken (!) and a recovery in breakfasts. Having said all of that, actual profit growth is expected to be sub-5% this year, at an adjusted EPS level. Net debt also remains substantial, relative to profits. I think JDW is an excellent operator that’s likely to continue to thrive. But with the stock now trading on 14x FY26 earnings, I’m going to mirror the StockRanks and leave our neutral view unchanged today.
Warehouse Reit (LON:WHR) (£491m)	Publication of Response Document	Warehouse independent directors unanimously recommend voting in favour of Blackstone offer.
Capita (LON:CPI) (£390m)	Ofgem opens investigation into Smart DCC Ltd	Ofgem investigating if Smart DCC (smart meter rollout) breached competitive procurement rules.
Caledonia Mining (LON:CMCL) (£326m)	Profitability expected to be ahead of expectations	SP +8% Based on current production & gold prices, FY25 profits estimated to be materially ahead of exps. Broker forecasts are unchanged today ahead of the H1 results, but Panmure Liberum estimates that FY25 EBITDA could be lifted 13% to $136m if gold prices remain at current levels.	AMBER/GREEN (Roland) [no section below] Today’s update follows last week’s upgrade to production guidance, which was prompted by record Q2 gold production. The current gold price of c.$3,400/oz is also around 13% above the $3k average used by Cavendish and PanLib in their 2025 forecasts, so today’s upgrade isn’t a big surprise. I suspect that this upgrade could also result in the company reaching a net cash position sooner than previously expected, which would help fund capex on new projects and reduce downside risk. The obvious point that remains worth repeating is that higher profits are dependent on gold prices being maintained. I’d also note that while CMCL has some exploration and development opportunities underway, the Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe is currently the company’s only producing asset. This means there’s a higher degree of political and operational risk than with a diversified miner. These caveats aside, I think it’s reasonable to take a moderately positive view here ahead of August’s interim results.
Frp Advisory (LON:FRP) (£307m)	Full Year Results	Rev +19% w/ good organic growth. Adj PBT +10% to £37.1m. FY26 trading in line with exps.
Wilmington (LON:WIL) (£286m)	Trading Statement	Double-digit growth from HSE sector, but organic rev -1% due to US. Adj PBT to be flat at £27.7m.
Norcros (LON:NXR) (£258m)	AGM Statement	Q1 trading “resilient” with FY expectations unchanged. Q1 revenue +0.6% LFL.
VP (LON:VP.). (£228m)	AGM Statement	Q1 performance “resilient” in mixed conditions. Full year expectations unchanged.
Sovereign Metals (LON:SVML) (£225m)	DFS Progressing with Completion of Geotech Program	“Confirm favourable subsurface conditions aligned with regional geology”
Ecora Resources (LON:ECOR) (£177m)	Q2 Trading Update	Portfolio contribution +42% to $8.4m ex-Kestrel. $3.4m contribution from Kestrel.
Software Circle (LON:SFT) (£112m)	Full Year Results	FY25 “Operating EBITDA” £4.8m Pre-tax loss £0.7m. FY26 trading aligns with internal forecasts.
Personal group (LON:PGH) (£98m)	H1 Trading Update	Trading in line. H1 rev +11% to £23.3m. Adj. EBITDA +41% to £5.5m. Cash £26.9m, no debt. Insurance annualised premium income +12% to £38m. Benefits platform ARR +10% to £6.9m. Canaccord Genuity forecasts are unchanged today: FY25E EPS: 19.7p (+19% vs FY24). FY26E EPS: 24.9p (+26% vs FY25).	AMBER/GREEN (Roland holds) [no section below] Today’s update from this workplace health insurance and employee benefits group shows continued strong progress, with record H1 insurance sales of £7.4m (annualised). Growth is being targeted through new products such as digital insurance and new customer segments for the benefits business. The partnership with Sage (disc: I hold) is also being expanded. Customer retention levels in insurance are over 80%, suggesting individual employees see value in their policies. The outlook seems positive to me with unchanged forecasts implying double-digit earnings growth in 2025 and 2026. My only niggling concern is that the very high margins of the insurance business could come under pressure at some point, as I’ve previously discussed. However, I remain comfortable holding this stock in the SIF folio and would expect the c.6% yield to remain affordable, barring any kind of disruption to the business model.
Skillcast (LON:SKL) (£42m)	Trading Update & Notice of Results	H1 rev +18% (£7.5m). ARR +22% year-on-year to £12.7m. Trading in line. Cash £11.5m, no debt.
Van Elle Holdings (LON:VANL) (£42m)	Full Year Results	“Resilient” FY25 performance against headwinds. Confident in achieving revised FY26 exps.
Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX) (£37m)	Q2 2025 Trading Update	Remains on track to achieve guidance of turning cash flow positive by the end of 2025.
Cyanconnode Holdings (LON:CYAN) (£29m)	Full Year Results	Rev down “largely” due to delays outside their control. Op loss £3.8m. Going concern warning.
Symphony Environmental Technologies (LON:SYM) (£28m)	AGM Statement	Sales nearing completion. H1 revenue down due to order timing. Market exps not mentioned.
Christie (LON:CTG) (£28m)	Mid Year Reviews	Christie & Co. has published reviews of positive conditions across a number of core sectors.
Manx Financial (LON:MFX) (£27m)	Payment Assist Limited Key Partner Agreements	PAL enters 5 new agreements expected to increase advances by £27m, and revenue by >£5m.
Itaconix (LON:ITX) (£17m)	H1 2025 Trading Update	Exps unchanged. H1 Rev $4.8m (+73% y/y) led by Cleaning category (+87%). Net cash $5.7m.
World Chess (LON:CHSS) (£13m)	Web Domain Change	Consolidates all consumer-facing assets under a single platform and brand, WorldChess.com.
CPPGroup (LON:CPP) (£12m)	Disposal of CPP India	Agreed disposal of CPP India for $21m (£15.7m). No distribution expected for shareholders.

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Roland's section

Breedon (LON:BREE)

Down 10% to 350p (£1.2bn) - Interim Results - Roland - BLACK (AMBER/RED)

Breedon Group plc (Breedon or the Group), a leading vertically-integrated construction materials group in Great Britain, Ireland and the United States, announces unaudited results for the six months ended 30 June 2025.

Today’s half-year results include a warning that profits for the full year are likely to be at the lower end of expectations. The market appears to have interpreted this as a profit warning, with the stock down by nearly 10% at the time of writing.

Breedon is primarily an aggregates specialist and this can be an attractive business model for companies with decent scale; quarries tend to have high local market share as it’s not economic to transport such materials over long distances. My general long-term impression of Breedon is positive, but today’s headline numbers don’t look very encouraging to me and flag up several potential areas of concern

H1 2025 results summary: like-for-like revenue fell during the first half and while the contribution from a recent acquisition lifted overall sales, this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp fall in profits:

• Revenue up 7% to £815.9m (-3% LFL)

• Adjusted pre-tax profit down 20% to £48.9m

• Adjusted EPS -19% to 11.2p

• Net debt up 37% to £648m

• Adjusted Return on Invested Capital: 7.8% (H1 24: 8.8%)

The contrast between total revenue and like-for-like revenue is explained by the acquisition of US firm Lionmark for $238m in March. Lionmark reported $246m of revenue in the 12 months to 30 November 2024, so I’d estimate its contribution since the acquisition completed in March might be c.£62m. This squares up roughly with a 3% decline in underlying group revenue, so seems a reasonable assumption.

Figures provided with the acquisition suggested that Lionmark would be slightly margin-dilutive, with a FY24 EBITDA margin of 12.6% versus 15.6% for Breedon. Unfortunately the decline in the group’s UK business in H1 has exacerbated this impact, with lower volumes leading to negative operating leverage.

UK: The company seems to have faced a number of challenges during the first half. In the core UK market, which generates nearly 60% of revenue, conditions were described as “challenging”. Decisions on new projects were slow and lower levels of housebuilding were also a headwind.

UK EBITDA fell by 8%, reflecting a 2% drop in revenue and the impact of negative operating leverage.

Ireland: revenue fell by 7%, although creditably underlying EBITDA was unchanged at £17.5m.

US: revenue rose by 8% on a like-for-like basis, or by 140% to £127.2m including Lionmark. However, this higher revenue did not drop through to profits, with total underlying EBITDA up by just 27% to £13m. The US EBITDA margin fell from 19.2% in H1 24 to just 10.2% in H1 25.

This big fall in profitability seems to be due to a mix of weather disruption and seasonality, perhaps with some margin dilution from Lionmark. We’ll have to see how the full-year numbers pan out.

Debt: the increase in net debt looks concerning to me on both an absolute and leverage basis. The net debt/EBITDA of 2.2x is now above the company’s previously-stated target range of 1-2x. Management says leverage is expected to fall in H2 due to the seasonality of this business, which is fair. But if trading conditions remain weak, then there's a risk that deleveraging could be slower than expected, while finance costs will remain elevated.

Outlook & Estimates

Breedon has stopped short of cutting its guidance for the year today. But management has come close, guiding expectations downwards:

Given the difficult first half and the macroeconomic headwinds we now expect our result for the full year will be at the low end of the current range of market expectations

Broker consensus range for FY25 EBITDA is given today as £291.4-£311.5m, with an average of £302.8m.

I would guess we can expect a figure below £300m. The comparative figure from last year was £270m, so this would still represent modest growth.

I don’t have access to any updated broker notes today, but today’s 10% share price drop suggests to me that the market is pricing in a modest reduction to forecasts.

Roland’s view

Megan flagged up the risks of Breedon’s debt-funded expansion in March, when market sentiment towards construction stocks was notably more positive. She took a neutral view at the time, even though Breedon’s 2024 results were slightly ahead of expectations. This turns out to have been a prudent move.

Today’s fall has left the company with a market cap of £1.2bn, only slightly above today’s reported net asset value of £1,15bn.

The long-run average return on capital employed from this business seems to be around 8%, so I would argue that a share price somewhere around NAV is fair and potentially attractive.

However, I am inclined to view today’s update as a modest profit warning, so I’d be cautious about getting involved just yet. We often find that a period of weaker performance follows an initial profit warning.

I note that the consensus trend has been drifting lower since March:

Given the combination of weaker trading and elevated leverage, I think the risk of further problems is higher than it might otherwise be.

I’m going to downgrade our view to AMBER/RED today to reflect these reservations, although on a longer-term view I think Breedon’s asset base is likely to remain attractive.

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Informa (LON:INF)

Up 5% to 870p (£11.3bn) - Interim Results - Roland - AMBER

This FTSE 100 trade show, data and publishing group enjoyed a strong first half and has upgraded its guidance for full-year underlying revenue growth slightly today, which I read as organic growth. The main areas of growth seem to have been the Live B2B Events business (undlerying revenue +8.5%) and Taylor & Francis academic publishing (und. Revenue +11.5%).

However, it’s worth noting that performance enjoyed a significant boost from acquisitions in H1, with non-underlying growth seemingly contributing 12% of the 20% growth in total revenue.

As a result, overall revenue and earnings growth expectations for the year seem broadly unchanged at $4bn and c.10% respectively today, despite the upgrade to underlying revenue growth guidance.

Informa’s adjusted operating margin of 28.4% certainly looks impressive and suggests a high-quality portfolio of businesses. I don’t know this company in detail and this may indeed be the case. But the StockReport shows a statutory ROE and ROCE of c.5%, almost certainly below the group’s cost of capital:

This combination of high margins and low returns suggests to me that Informa may have paid a high price for some of its (many) past acquisitions.

This view is reinforced by today’s £484m goodwill impairment charge, which relates to the Techtarget (NSQ:TTGT) business.

Informa has a 57% stake in the NASDAQ-listed JV, which was formed in 2024 through a combination between TechTarget and the Informa Tech business. Informa contributed $350m in cash and its existing Tech division and the combined business had a market cap of $1.4bn at the start of this year.

Today, TechTarget’s market cap is around $530m (£390m), around 60% lower than at the start of the year:

The company says today’s impairment charge is due to a subdued market backdrop among its enterprise technology customers, who are apparently preferring to spend money on AI development:

An impairment indicator was identified due to the market capitalisation of Informa TechTarget falling below its net assets and a 4.3% decline in underlying revenues being reported for H1 2025. This performance reflects a subdued market backdrop, with enterprise technology customers continuing to prioritise AI-related research and development over investment in product marketing and sales support.

The upshot of today's £484m impairment this is that $350m in cash paid last year and some of the value of Informa’s original Tech division has now been written off. This merger – much-hyped by management – does not seem like a very good example of shareholder value creation to me.

Outlook

Assuming that consensus earnings remain broadly unchanged after today’s results, Informa shares are currently trading on c.16x 2025 forecast earnings, with a dividend yield of 2.7%.

Roland’s view

This is not a company I’ve followed in any detail, in part because I’ve always been discouraged by the low quality metrics and low dividend yield. In combination, these don’t suggest an attractive combination of value and quality to me.

I’m also discouraged by the high levels of acquisitions and resulting high levels of debt. Net debt excluding leases was £2.7bn at the end of June, which the company says is equivalent to leverage of 2.5x EBITDA. This is somewhat above my comfort zone for a cyclical business like this.

In fairness, underlying cash generation seems quite strong and Informa does seem to have good market share in some sectors. Performance may be stronger when cyclical conditions improve and if management scales back acquisition spending.

However, on initial inspection, I don’t see any compelling reasons for me to consider getting involved at the moment. I’m going to initiate our coverage by taking a neutral view today.