Good morning! I hope you had a nice weekend.
It's unusually busy for a Monday, as more companies pipe up with their Dec 2025 trading updates.
Today's Agenda is complete.
Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link (updated to 16th December)
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our View (Author |
|---|---|---|---|
Sigmaroc (LON:SRC) (£1.44bn | SR78) | Ahead of exps. Revenue +4%, adj EBITDA +16% to c.£262m. Adj EPS +26%, “to exceed prior EPS guidance by c.10%”. | ||
Great Portland Estates (LON:GPE) (£1.41bn | SR29) | Appointing Jayne Cottam as CFO from 16 Mar 26. Her previous role was as CFO at Assura REIT, prior to its merger with PHP. | ||
Dowlais (LON:DWL) (£1.24bn | SR64) | 2025 performance ahead of previous guidance. Revenue is expected to be c.£5bn, with adj op profit “no less than” £370m, at an improved margin of >7.4%. Adj free cash flow to be >£100m. | ||
Workspace (LON:WKP) (£806m | SR49) | CEO Lawrence Hutchings is stepping down today. He will be replaced by Charlie Green from 2 Feb 26. Green previously founded The Office Group/Fora, another workspace business. A new CFO will also join on 23 Feb 26. | ||
WH Smith (LON:SMWH) (£796m | SR31) | Leo Quinn appointed w/ effect from 7 April 26. Quinn was previously CEO of Balfour Beatty. Chair Annette Court will step down at February’s AGM. | ||
Allergy Therapeutics (LON:AGY) (£743m | SR13) | H1 revenue expected to be +7% to £36.3m, with £10.1m cash position. Commercialisation of Grassmuno has begun in Germany. Confident in delivering revenue growth in y/e 30 June 2026. | ||
Harworth (LON:HWG) (£539m | SR40) | “Headline sales”of £92.5m in H2, taking FY25 total to £110.2m. Including £58.2m of Industrial & Logistics sales (ahead of book value) and £52m of Residential (below book value). | ||
Griffin Mining (LON:GFM) (£491m | SR64) | Mining licence term of 26 years is “based upon” the latest mineral resource estimates. | ||
Marshalls (LON:MSLH) (£449m | SR56) | 2025 revenue +2% to £632m. Adj pre-tax profit to be in line with expectations. Despite subdued end markets, expected “further progress” in 2026. Interim CEO Simon Bourne has been made permanent CEO. | ||
Auction Technology (LON:ATG) (£436m | SR24) | On Friday, FitzWalter announced a possible cash offer of 400p per share. ATG reports this morning that its Board met on 18 Jan and concluded the offer undervalued the company. | PINK (AMBER =) (Roland) [no section below] | |
Property Franchise (LON:TPFG) (£323m | SR71) | Acquired 85% stake in Smart Advice Financial Solutions (SAFS), an appointed representative of Mortgage Advice Bureau. SAFS has 34 mortgage advisers, increasing TPFG’s network to 315 advisors. | ||
ACG Metals (LON:ACG) (£291m | SR55) | 2025 production of 39.2koz gold equiv, 3% above top of guidance range. 2026 guidance is for 20-22 ktpa of copper equiv. production, including 17.5koz of gold equiv. | ||
Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.) (£270m | SR40) | FY revenue to be c.£203m, with H2 +5% vs H1. FY25 adj EBITA ahead of exps due to stronger margins. | AMBER/GREEN ↑ (Roland) Today’s statement gives me confidence that the big acquisition in 2024 is performing acceptably and making a positive contribution to results. My main concerns are the lack of meaningful organic revenue growth last year (+3%) and the broader risk of a sector slowdown as oil prices ease. However, on balance I feel that Ashtead’s FY26 P/E of 8 and improving balance sheet justify a more positive view than we’ve taken previously, so I am upgrading our view by one notch today. | |
Big Technologies (LON:BIG) (£256m | SR24) | Final settlement in Buddi Litigation of £38.5m. Continued mediation, with a view to settlement, with Sara Murray and associated parties. | ||
XP Power (LON:XPP) (£254m | SR52) | 2025 in line with expectations, with order intake +28% to £225.9m and revenue -4% to £229.7m. Book-to-bill 0.98x. | ||
Fintel (LON:FNTL) (£221m | SR36) | Buys Pearson Ham Group's market pricing business, a leading provider of proprietary pricing data to the UK insurance industry, for £11m. Initial cash £7.5m, defcon £3.5m. | ||
City of London Investment (LON:CLIG) (£196m | SR96) | FuM +4% to $11.2bn (Dec 2025). FuM $11.6bn as of 15th January. Total group net outflows $853m over the six months. “Strong market and investment returns over the six months led to net outflows from client rebalancing, asset allocation changes, and capital needs.” | AMBER/GREEN = (Graham) I can’t get truly excited about this while flows remain negative. On the other hand, I think it does have a potentially defensible niche. The way I see things, fund managers have to offer access to something that investors can’t do by themselves. Closed-end funds, particularly in emerging markets, strike me as an interesting asset class and one where investors can benefit from leaving the investment management to a fund manager like City of London. The other key point is that even with negative flows, AUM has been rising. So there is an element of stability here, despite negative flows. | |
M&C Saatchi (LON:SAA) (£153m | SR48) | LFL net revenue to decline around -7%, net revenue £210m, op profit £26m. Net cash £13m. 2026 outlook: “profitable growth”. | ||
Anpario (LON:ANP) (£98m | SR77) | Revenue c. £47m, adj. EBITDA not less than £9.4m, ahead of current market expectations. Net cash £12.4m. | ||
Panthera Resources (LON:PAT) (£54m | SR30) | MD: “The maiden drilling programme by Panthera at the Kwademen prospect has delivered outstanding high-grade intersections within several broad zones of mineralisation that remain open in multiple directions. This bodes well in a strong, rising gold price environment." | ||
Hercules (LON:HERC) (£46m | SR95) | FY September 25 audit is well advanced, however, additional audit work required due to the Company's extensive acquisition activity in 2025. FY25 accounts to be announced in March 2026. | ||
Nexteq (LON:NXQ) (£42m | SR73) | FY25 trading is expected to be in line with market expectations. Adj. PBT not less than $3.6m. Outlook for FY26 remains in line with previous guidance. | ||
Christie (LON:CTG) (£31m | SR72) | FY25 performance from continuing operations considerably ahead of its previously upgraded expectations. Revenue >£70m, op profit >£6.5m. Average fee on business sales/purchases has considerably improved. Remains conservative in its outlook for delivering further profit growth in 2026. | ||
Surface Transforms (LON:SCE) (£23m | SR33) | Revenue +120% to £18m, operating loss reduced from £23m to £9m. Outlook: revenue expectations of c. £27m for 2026, with an EBITDA breakeven. | ||
Neo Energy Metals (LON:NEO) (£18m | SR4) | £8 million strategic investment to advance the Beisa Uranium and Gold Project. £1.5m has been advanced with shares placed at 0.9p (latest SP: 0.79p). Also, there has been a placing to raise a further £1m. The strategic investor has the right to invest £6.5m of convertible loan funding. | ||
Cambridge Cognition Holdings (LON:COG) (£13m | SR6) | Sales orders up 73%. Revenues down 10%, “broadly in line”. Adjusted EBITDA loss in line with market expectations (2024: loss £43k). Net cash £0.2m. Order book £16.9m. “Enters 2026 with a strong pipeline of opportunities” | ||
Thor Energy (LON:THR) (£12m | SR33) | Receipt of the cash completion payment for A$2,250,000. Commencing in September 2026, three successive annual deferred completion payments totalling A$3,937,00 until September 2028, payable in cash, shares or a combination at Tivan's election. |
Graham's Section
City of London Investment (LON:CLIG)
Down 0.5% to 384p (£195m) - Trading Update - Six months to 31 December 2025 - Graham - AMBER/GREEN =
City of London (LSE: CLIG), a leading specialist asset management group offering a range of institutional and retail products, provides a trading update for the six months ended 31 December 2025. The numbers that follow are unaudited.
This investment manager has traditionally been associated with emerging market closed-end funds, but its offering is more diverse these days.
Unfortunately the flows here remain negative, which becomes apparent as soon as you scroll down a few paragraphs.
At least funds under management have been going up:
Funds under Management ("FuM") increased by 4% to $11.2 billion as of 31 December 2025 as compared to $10.8 billion as of 30 June 2025. FuM growth has continued into 2026 with assets totaling $11.6 billion as of 15 January 2026.
Context: FUM rose from $10.2 billion to $10.8 billion in the previous financial year, despite nearly $1 billion of net outflows.
And it’s a similar story in the last six months, although the outflows have been worse considering that it’s just a six-month period: FUM has risen from $10.8 billion to $11.2 billion, but H1 outflows have been some $850 million.
Checking the Q1 update, I see that these H1 outflows have been roughly similar between Q1 and Q2 (a little higher in Q2 vs. Q1).
So there is really nothing positive in the numbers as far as flows are concerned.
The flows are described as arising from “client rebalancing, asset allocation changes, and capital needs.”
In more detail:
Most client outflows were driven by two main factors:
o Portfolio rebalancing, where strong performance and asset‑allocation reviews prompted shifts back to target weights.
o Strategic or structural changes, such as pension funds reaching funded status and moving to liability matching strategies; consultant changes, particularly for OCIO (Outsourced Chief Investment Officer) clients, which often catalyse pre-determined manager changes; transitions to passive strategies resulting in the liquidation of active mandates and withdrawals to meet funding or cash‑flow needs for capital projects.
Performance: at least this looks pretty good for the H1 period, with strong benchmark outperformance from two strategies.
Checking the annual results, I see that all of these four “CLIM” (City of London Investment Management) strategies outperformed their benchmarks last year.
There was “a broad narrowing of closed-end funds ("CEF") discounts and corporate initiatives within the investment universe.”
Obviously this isn’t something that’s consistently repeatable - fund discounts can’t narrow ad infinitum - but it’s still welcome news.
An interesting point:
The CEF structure is arguably the best vehicle for delivering returns from active management and this was aptly demonstrated by strong net asset value ("NAV") performances over the period from several of our largest portfolio holdings.
We would expect CLIG to take this viewpoint but I am inclined to agree. Closed-end funds don’t have to worry about redemptions, after all, so they have far more freedom than open-ended funds. But there are counter-arguments to this view.
In addition to CLIM, CLIG also owns Karpus Investment Management (KIM), and performance from KIM strategies also looks fine for the six-month period. Maybe hugging the benchmarks a little too tightly? Although it seems to have a much higher weighting in fixed income, which would make variance from benchmarks more difficult to achieve:
Graham’s view
I’m going to leave Roland’s AMBER/GREEN stance unchanged.
I can’t get truly excited about this while flows remain negative.
On the other hand, I think it does have a potentially defensible niche. The way I see things, fund managers have to offer access to something that investors can’t do by themselves. Closed-end funds, particularly in emerging markets, strike me as an interesting asset class and one where investors can benefit from leaving the investment management to a fund manager like City of London.
The other key point is that even with negative flows, AUM has been rising. So there is an element of stability here, despite negative flows.
I would however be wary of relying on the dividend. Underlying basic EPS was 36.7p in the last financial year, while the total dividend for the year was 33p.
Roland's Section
Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.)
Up 12% at 374p (£303m) - Full Year Trading Update - Roland - AMBER/GREEN ↑
This subsea equipment supplier to the offshore energy sector is one of the top movers on the London market this morning after issuing an ahead of expectations 2025 trading update.
Here are the main points:
Full year revenue is expected to be around £203m (2024: £168m)
This represents organic growth of 3% and a total year-on-year increase of c.21%, due to acquisitions
Full-year adjusted EBITA is now expected to be “slightly ahead of market profit expectations”
Company-compiled consensus forecasts are for FY25 revenue of £205.8m and adjusted EBITDA of £57.7m (FY24 actual: £50.3m).
What it means:
We can see that full-year revenue guidance is actually slightly below forecast. The improvement in profits has come from higher profit margins than previously expected.
In addition, it seems clear that revenue growth last year was driven almost entirely by acquisitions, with organic revenue growth minimal
In today’s update, Ashstead says that margin improvement has come from two main areas:
The integration of Seatronics and J2 Subsea (acquired in Q4 2024) is now complete. Cost savings have been higher than forecast and there has been a reduction in low margin activities in the acquired businesses.
Across the wider group, “business mix enhancements” and “a focus on operating efficiencies” have helped to improve margins.
Balance sheet: in line with guidance, leverage was reduced to less than 1.4x at the year end (H1 2025: 1.6x). Management expects leverage to fall below 1.0x by the end of 2026 – a comfortable level.
Outlook: Ashtead reports “improving momentum in our business as we enter 2026”, but there’s no specific 2026 guidance today. Instead, CEO Allan Pirie makes this comment:
We are focussed on executing our strategic growth plans and remain confident in the Group's ability to generate significant value for shareholders over the medium-term.
Roland’s view
As we have commented before, a focus on the medium term outlook can sometimes mean the short term is less certain.
In Ashtead’s case, I’m reassured that the £63m acquisition made in 2024 appears to be making a positive contribution to the group’s business and to have been integrated successfully.
While I’d want to review the unadjusted full-year results to gain more confidence, comparing the variation in profit and revenue from last year suggests to me that Seatronics and J2 Subsea may have generated an adjusted return on capital of c.9% in their first year.
Assuming further improvement in future years, this will hopefully help support the group’s very respectable existing profitability:
Ashtead warned on profits in July 2025 but has since maintained in-line guidance. I’m pleased to see I moved our view back to neutral following August’s in-line trading update.
I think we might argue that the lack of guidance for 2026 today means there’s still some risk this year could fall short of expectations.
I don’t have access to any updated broker forecasts today. But consensus forecasts available on Ashtead’s website suggest a modest level of growth this year.
My decision today is whether to upgrade our view from AMBER to AMBER/GREEN. My main concern is the possibility that the wider oil market could be slowing to reflect the impact of lower oil prices.
However, after a significant de-rating last year, the shares are now trading on a FY26 forecast P/E of 8. At this level I think some caution is already priced in, especially given the group’s reduced leverage.
A low StockRank of 40 and Falling Star styling suggest some caution is warranted. However, I suspect the algorithms may take a more positive view when today’s ahead statement and FY25 results are incorporated. Given the modest valuation, I’m going to tentatively move our view up to AMBER/GREEN today.
See what our investor community has to say
Enjoying the free article? Unlock access to all subscriber comments and dive deeper into discussions from our experienced community of private investors. Don't miss out on valuable insights. Start your free trial today!
Start your free trialWe require a payment card to verify your account, but you can cancel anytime with a single click and won’t be charged.