Tech earnings: we will have earnings from the world’s biggest tech companies this week. Given the index concentration achieved by these companies, they are relevant for almost anyone with market exposure.
See our most recent Week Ahead article by Mark for a detailed breakdown. Highlights include Meta Platforms (NSQ:META) and Microsoft (NSQ:MSFT) on Wednesday, and then Apple (NSQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NSQ:AMZN) on Thursday.
The mood music going into these earnings is a little cautious. The NASDAQ Composite index is down 3% this week, and Asian semiconductor stocks have been weak. The Korean Kospi, for example, dropped 11% overnight and is now down by 34% since its high in June. The two main stocks in that index, Samsung and SK Hynix, will both provide earnings reports in the next two days.
The FTSE is unchanged at 10,790
S&P 500 is down 0.4% at 7,385
Brent crude (October) is down 0.6% at $85.40/bbl
Gold is down 0.7% at $4,045/oz
Bitcoin is down 2.4% at $63,400
Wrapping it up there, thank you. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Unilever (LON:ULVR) (£100bn | SR65) | Underlying sales growth 4.8%. Turnover +0.5% (adverse currency moves). Underlying EPS +2.4%. Diluted EPS down 2.5%. Upgraded outlook for 2026. | ||
Barclays (LON:BARC) (£71.6bn | SR73) | Q2 PBT £3.3bn, up 31%. RoTE 14.8% (H125: 13.2%). EPS of 30.7p (H125: 24.7p). “We are upgrading the 2026 Group income target to c.£31.5bn and remain committed to, and confident in, delivering all financial and distribution targets for 2026 and 2028.” | ||
Games Workshop (LON:GAW) (£6.7bn | SR71) | Core operating profit £245.1m (2025: £211.8m). Licensing profit £29.9m (2025: 49.5m). EPS 624p (2025: 594.9p). “...we are not planning any significant changes to the implementation of our core strategy in the year ahead… we remain customer focused and look forward to building on the progress we have made.” | GREEN = (Graham) | |
Croda International (LON:CRDA) (£4.1bn | SR84) | Organic sales +4.6%. Adjusted operating profit +6.7% organically. Adjusted EPS +8.9% (78.6p). Actual EPS +29% (56.5p). “Despite the ongoing macro uncertainty, our outlook for full year 2026 is unchanged and we remain on track to deliver our financial framework for full year 2028.” | ||
Frasers (LON:FRAS) (£3.5bn | SR78) | Merger control clearance in respect of the Offer was granted by the European Commission. The Offer of €38.00 per HUGO BOSS Share remains open for shareholders to accept. | ||
Man (LON:EMG) (£3.4bn | SR50) | AUM $253.6bn (Dec 2025: $227.6bn). Net inflows $7.1bn. 46% increase in core management fee EPS to 12.4¢. Statutory EPS (diluted) of 17.5¢ (H1 2025: 4.4¢). “...our strategy is working. We will continue to invest in the firm to extend our edge, scaling our credit, quant equity, and multi-strat capabilities to deepen the relationships we have with allocators globally.” | ||
Inchcape (LON:INCH) (£2.9bn | SR85) | Half-year Results & Current £175m share buyback increased to £250m | Organic revenue growth 5%. Adj. PBT down 6% to £188m, due to higher finance costs. Statutory PBT down 33% to £124m. Guidance: Adjusted EPS growth of >10%, in line with medium term guidance. H2-weighted performance. | |
Unite (LON:UTG) (£2.9bn | SR52) | Like-for-like income growth 1.5%. Adjusted earnings down 2% to £142m. Earnings “in line with expectations”. IFRS loss of £418m after revaluation decline. EPRA net tangible assets reduced 9% to 865p. | ||
Canal+ SA (LON:CAN) (£2.30bn | SR79) | Revenue +40%. On a like-for-like basis, revenue +1.4%. Adj. EBIT +13% like-for-like. Full year and medium-term guidance confirmed. | ||
SSP (LON:SSPG) (£1.48bn | SR59) | Group Q3 sales +4% at constant FX, +5% at actual FX rates. Trading for the Group as a whole has remained in line with our expectations through Q3… we remain on track to achieve our expectations for the Group for the full-year. | ||
Coats (LON:COA) (£1.48bn | SR50) | Revenue +1% organically, +18% in total. Adjusted EBIT down 2% organically, +18% in total (all figures at constant FX). Full year expectations unchanged. | ||
Bodycote (LON:BOY) (£1.18bn | SR84) | Revenue +3.3%. Adjusted operating profit +10.7% (£61m). Core organic revenue growth was 9.6%. FY26 outlook unchanged. | ||
Uniphar (LON:UPR) (£993m | SR53) | H1 adjusted EPS +11%, in line with expectations. Enters H2 with strong trading momentum across the Group, and underlying trading expectations for the year remain unchanged. | ||
Luceco (LON:LUCE) (£410m | SR93) | Revenue +13%, exceeding expectations. Adjusted operating profit +14% (c. £15.8m). Continues to experience strong demand. Expects adjusted operating profit for 2027 to exceed current market expectations. | AMBER = (Roland - I hold) On the face of it, today’s half-year update looks to be in line with guidance and even includes a modest upgrade for FY27. One possible weak spot is the dependence on the Energy Transition segment, which will see an “expected” reduction in Demand Flexibility revenue per charger in H2. There’s also an expected 60% H2 weighting to profit this year, although this is consistent with last year. Despite a seemingly reasonable price tag, I’m inclined to remain neutral for a little longer – especially given the impending departure of long-time CEO John Hornby. | |
Restore (LON:RST) (£380m | SR52) | Revenue +21%, adjusted EPS +24%. Confident of delivering a full year result at least in line with market expectations. | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) [no section below] I struggle to get too excited about this document storage and disposal business due to its low quality metrics – return on capital employed was less than 5% last year. Even so, today’s results look solid enough to me and show nearly £10m of free cash flow (before acquisitions and buybacks). This represents strong conversion relative to net profit from continuing operations of £4.8m. Four bolt-on acquisitions (my preferred kind) were completed in H1 and the company is continuing a £20m share buyback. While leverage is slightly higher than I’d like to see at 1.7x, this ratio is falling. With full-year guidance unchanged and a forward P/E of 10, I’m happy to retain our broadly-positive view on Restore. | |
Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) (£354m | SR81) | Long-term transactions completed +4% against ERV. Occupancy increased from 95% to 95.4%. “...a strong start to FY27, with continued leasing outperformance, rising occupancy and exceptionally high tenant retention.” | ||
Allergy Therapeutics (LON:AGY) (£342m | SR6) | Helge Weiner-Trapness has been Chief Strategy Officer and an Executive Director of the Group since January 2026. Was previously Vice Chairman, Global Banking at HSBC Holdings plc. | ||
Everplay (LON:EVPL) (£330m | SR49) | SP +4% Has traded in line with the Board's expectations during H1 2026. Major releases are taking place across H2 2026. Expects full year results to be in line with market expectations, with an H2 weighting. | GREEN ↑ (Graham) [no section below] I'm shocked to see that this is down by 40% since I looked at it last September. It's true that the company failed to grow the top line last year, but the markdown is extreme. There hasn't even been a profit warning to accompany this sell-off. I'm going to increase our stance on this to GREEN given the value that is currently on offer. 8x earnings for a cash-rich video game developer is a bit too cheap, in my book (the cash balance was £52m as of Dec 2025). Even if forecast revenue growth is fairly modest (5.6%) and even if it relies on an H2 weighting, I think it makes sense to be positive here. The P/E multiple before the sell-off was 15-16x, and I did not think that was irrational. Remember that the back catalogue can generate most of Everplay's revenues; this reduces the risk compared to publishers relying primarily on the success of brand new hits. | |
Forterra (LON:FORT) (£280m | SR65) | Revenue down 13.5%. Like-for-like revenue down 9.3%. Adjusted PBT down 12.7% (£14.5m). No change to FY expectations. | BLACK (AMBER/GREEN =) (Roland) [no section below] Today’s interim results from brickmaker Forterra highlight difficult market conditions. Management commentary may not technically include a profit warning, but I think this guidance for a “similar” performance in H2 vs H1 probably does imply a cut to forecasts. Annualising H1 adj EPS of 5.1p gives a figure of 10.2p per share. That’s 5% below current consensus of 10.7p, according to the StockReport. Commissioned research house Progressive supports my interpretation, saying “we had anticipated a stronger second half and have reduced our estimates” (see left). While the new Burnham government is expected to take measures to stimulate social housing construction, we don’t know how, when or even if this will happen. Forterra’s comment that “forecasting demand for our products in H2 remains challenging” suggests to me that there’s still scope for a further downgrade. Having said all of that, I think it could make sense to keep the faith in this cyclical business. Forterra shares are only trading at 1.2x book value and its balance sheet looks manageable to me. Any recovery in volumes could quickly feed through to profits. I share the StockRanks view of this as a Contrarian play, so I’m leaving our AMBER/GREEN view unchanged. | |
Essentra (LON:ESNT) (£274m | SR44) | Revenue +9.8% at constant FX. Adjusted PBT +7.3% at constant FX (£14m), +12% at actual FX. H1 performance in line with Board’s expectations and FY26 expectations are unchanged. | ||
Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) (£245m | SR35) | SP -30% Chinese Testing Services business: terminating the current customer contract and exiting the business. This will be accounted for as a discontinued operation. The overall trading backdrop has become increasingly more challenging in H2. The Board now expects Group revenue for continuing operations for FY26 to be in the range of £90-95m (excludes Chinese Testing Services). | BLACK (AMBER/RED ↓) (Graham) [no section below] This is a horrible profit warning; commiserations to anyone who was holding it overnight. While it won't come as any consolation to you, I am at least relieved to see that I was merely neutral on this one in April when I saw that it had generated just 37% of forecast full-year profits in H1 (year-end is in August, and so H1 ends in February). At the time, I thought that it might offer value at a cheap earnings mutliple of only about 13x, but we now know that the earnings multiple wasn't real. By my sums, today's profit warning slashes the FY 2026 revenue forecast by some 23%; a combination of the rapid departure from Chinese testing services, and weakness elsewhere. That's an enormous cut with the financial year-end coming up so soon; the new CFO appointed earlier this month will have his work cut out making fresh forecasts. As for our stance, I won't take us down all the way to RED as I still fundamentally view this as a very reputable business, with decent chances of recovery. It also has a net cash position of c. £42m before any working capital outflows that might pop up at year-end. Unfortunately, earnings are unlikely to be pretty in the short-term. | |
Kistos Holdings (LON:KIST) (£214m | SR48) | H1 2026 pro forma production of 20,500 boepd. Guidance for FY26 pro forma production is maintained at 19,000 - 21,000 boepd. Pro forma EBITDA of c. $205m; on a non-pro forma basis EBITDA was c. $155m. | ||
Kore Potash (LON:KP2) (£193m | SR23) | Efforts during the Quarter have been largely focussed on advancing the Formal Sale Process. Two parties are currently engaged. | TAKEOVER | |
Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO) (£171m | SR n/a) | A ship exporting Ferrexpo pellets to the Middle East has been damaged by Russian drones. A crew member has been killed and the vessel’s condition is unknown. Efforts are being made to salvage the vessel but the company does not expect to be able to load additional vessels on this route for the foreseeable future, as shipowners have cancelled their fixtures. The group continues to work towards the previously announced $100m minimum fundraising. | Shares currently suspended. | |
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) (£146m | SR56) | Revenue, profit and cash “in line with FY26 market expectations” (Consensus: revenue £92.3m, adj pre-tax profit £19.7m and cash £16.3m). Contracted ARR +18% to £85.4m with +8% organic growth. FY27 outlook: confident in delivering FY27 market expectations. | ||
Trufin (LON:TRU) (£128m | SR92) | Confirms the value of the previously announced special dividend as £0.4303 per share, with an ex-dividend date of 6 August 2026. The final amount returned to shareholders is expected to be £22,513,707 and will be paid on 28 August 2026. | ||
Andrada Mining (LON:ATM) (£90m | SR27) | Significant surface lithium grades: multiple grab samples returned grades exceeding 3.5% Li2O with associated tin and tantalum anomalies indicated. High-grade lithium samples extended the mineralised strike of the main Lithium Ridge trend from six to nine kilometres. | ||
Journeo (LON:JNEO) (£84m | SR65) | Revenue +53% to £37.6m with adj pre-tax profit +10% to £3.0m. Net cash dropped to £12.6m (H1 25: £18.0m). Outlook: FY26 revenue is expected to be “marginally ahead” of expectations, with pre-tax profit remaining in line with current expectations (consensus: £72m and £7.4m, respectively). | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) This update seems fine to me overall, but it does flag a significant H2 profit weighting. Looking ahead, house broker Cavendish has left 2026 forecasts unchanged but has introduced 2027 forecasts suggesting revenue and profit growth could moderate next year, perhaps with some further pressure on margins. With a forward P/E of 14x and a decent record of growth, I think it’s fair to leave my broadly-positive view unchanged today. | |
Gaming Realms (LON:GMR) (£82m | SR50) | H1 revenue expected to be c.£15.5m with adj EBITDA of £6.6m. Net cash of £13.5m at the end of the half year following £6m buyback. FY26 outlook: remains on track to meet FY expectations. | ||
NWF (LON:NWF) (£70m | SR80) | Revenue +1.9% with adj pre-tax profit -5.3% to £12.5m. Adj EPS of 17.9p, slightly below expectations (Stocko consensus 18.3p). Fuels business saw operating profit fall due to lower winter demand and the Middle East conflict. FY27 outlook: assuming normalised trading conditions in Fuels are maintained, the Board expects the Group’s performance to be “broadly in line” with FY26. | BLACK? RH note: I don’t have access to any revised broker forecasts yet, but previous consensus was for EPS growth of 7% in FY27, so I am inclined to see this as a profit warning for FY27. | |
Shield Therapeutics (LON:STX) (£61m | SR13) | Clinically relevant positive effectiveness in pediatric trial (FORTIS). Results confirm safety and effectiveness of ferric maltol treatment in children 2 months and above | ||
Creo Medical (LON:CREO) (£61m | SR19) | H1 revenue +45% to £3.2m, in line with expectations. Company expects to have sufficient cash to reach profitability following the completion of its stake in Creo Medical SL. FY26 outlook: confident in delivering full year revenue growth of 50% to 60%, in line with guidance. | ||
Staffline (LON:STAF) (£56m | SR80) | H1 revenue +15.2% to £559.4m, with pre-tax profit up 383% to £2.9m. “Retender and renewal activity remains high creating strong momentum into H2. FY26 outlook: “well positioned to deliver full year results towards the top end of market expectations” (consensus: PBT of £8.7-9.2m) | GREEN = (Graham) | |
Winking Studios (LON:WKS) (£52m | SR54) | Expects H1 revenue of at least +20% vs H1 25 with adj EBITDA of $1.0-1.3m (H1 25: $2.4m), reflecting increased costs to support growth initiatives. Revenue growth was mainly driven by art outsourcing services, including recent acquisitions. | ||
Flowtech Fluidpower (LON:FLO) (£48m | SR69) | H1 revenue +23.7% to £70.4m, with +1% LFL and the balance from acquisitions. H1 did not see the expected contribution from two major bridge infrastructure projects, which are now expected to be more heavily weighted to H2. FY26 Outlook: “The Group continues to trade in line with market expectations”. | ||
Defence Holdings (LON:ALRT) (£34m | SR12) | FY26 (y/e 31 March): nil revenue and a pre-tax loss of £4.6m. FY26 was a year of investment in the firm’s AI-led strategy and a number of products are under development. | ||
PCI- PAL (LON:PCIP) (£32m | SR42) | FY26 ARR +27% to £24.4m, with contracted ARR +24% to £27.5m, providing good visibility. H1 revenue and adj EBITDA are expected to be ahead of consensus, at £24.6m and c.£1.1m, respectively. | ||
Pebble Beach Systems (LON:PEB) (£31m | SR75) | H1 revenue +10% with strong contribution from project revenue, +19%. Recurring revenue +6%. H1 adj EBITDA is expected to be c.£2.4m with improved margin. FY26 Outlook: “the Board remains confident” and will provide an update on current trading in September. | ||
Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) (£27m | SR31) | H1 revenue +18% to c.£11.6m with cash of £8.9m. Workforce consultation continues with up to £4m of cost savings expected. | ||
Portmeirion (LON:PMP) (£25m | SR50) | H1 sales expected to be c.£36.4m, flat year-on-year in constant currency and in line with expectations. Tableware +4.1% with the USA returning to double-digit growth. Net debt reduced to £6.2m (FY25: £17.5m). Outlook: FY26 expectations unchanged. | ||
Tavistock Investments (LON:TAVI) (£17m | SR41) | Tavistock has acquired 87.9% of Plus Group, a “leading provider of AI Agent technology and paraplanning services to UK financial advisory firms”. Initial consideration is £900k, with a further £3.6m payable in cash over the next 18 months and additional deferred contingent consideration of £11.5m over the next four years. Plus Group reported turnover of £1m and EBITDA of c.£340k in FY25. | ||
Georgina Energy (LON:GEX) (£16m | SR7) | The water well contractor is mobilising to site and will shortly commence the drilling of the water wells to support the Ensign 970 drill rig for the September Q3 2026 drilling work at the 100% owned Hussar prospect EP513. | ||
Chesterfield Special Cylinders Holdings (LON:CSC) (£13m | SR46) | CEO Chris Walters is stepping down by mutual agreement and will leave on 31 July 2026. COO Chris Webster will become MD and join the board. Director of Finance Sally Millen now joins the board as FD. Richard Stavely of Hardwood Capital will also step down as a non-exec. These changes reflect the reduced scale of the company and will reduce central costs by c.£0.3m. Outlook: previous FY26 guidance unchanged. | ||
Empresaria (LON:EMR) (£11m | SR72) | H1 net fee income +5%, with improved margins and cost discipline seeing adjusted pre-tax profit up by c.250% against the prior year period. Management now expects FY26 adj PBT to be at least £5.2m (approximately 27% above market forecast). | ||
DSW Capital (LON:DSW) (£11m | SR63) | Revenue +27% to £6.2m, adj pre-tax profit -17% to £1.3m. DR Solicitors saw 12% annualised growth but M&A activity on the DSW Network was slower. FY27 outlook: trading in line with Board expectations. |
Graham's Section
Games Workshop (LON:GAW)
Down 2% at £197.72 (£6.5bn) - Results for the 52 week period ended 31 May 2026 - Graham - GREEN =
This old favourite, the owner of Warhammer, has issued full-year results.
To save me some typing, here’s the full highlights table. I’ve emphasised the key revenue and profit lines::
As you can hopefully see from the above, “core revenue” has continued its march higher, while “licensing revenue” has retreated.
The company has been very clear in the past that licensing revenue will be lumpy and can’t be expected to increase at a predictable rate every year. The previous financial year “included a surprise but very positive product release”. The prior year included the release of Space Marine 2.
Comment by CEO Kevin Rountree:
We delivered Group revenue and profit before tax at record levels thanks to another good performance from the core business.
After a record year, we remain customer focused and look forward to building on the progress we have made. I thank all of our customers together with our staff, trade accounts, our licensing partners and broader stakeholders for their ongoing support. Exciting times.
Mr. Rountree has been running Games Workshop for over a decade, and has always done it in his own way - never worrying too much about City forecasts, or offering very precise financial guidance. This style hasn’t hurt him or the company at all.
The usual strategic commentary is provided, which I think is cut-and-paste from prior years. These words will be familiar to long-time followers of the company:
Our ambitions remain clear: to make the best fantasy miniatures in the world, to engage and inspire our customers, and to sell our products globally at a profit. We intend to do this forever. Our decisions are focused on long-term success, not short-term gains.
I applaud the company for reminding investors of the basics of its business model in every results statement, and doing it in plain English. I’d appreciate it if more companies did this.
As far as the FY 2026 performance goes, Kevin Rountree explains an important measure he uses:
A useful measure for me to judge our financial progress each year, but one not classified as a key performance indicator, is our profit growth percentage, calculated as 'core business profit growth £value divided by the core business sales growth £value'. The percentage we achieved in the period reported at 53.9% was significantly better than last year's 12 month reported core business profit % of 37.5%. This highlights what we can achieve when we stay focused on profitable sales growth.
While other CEOs focus on sales growth, EBITDA, and other measures that flatter to deceive, Games Workshop focuses on converting a very high percentage of any additional sales into additional real profits.
No measure of adjusted earnings appears anywhere in this report.
As for cash management, they’ve eschewed many standard policies pursued by other companies:
We continue to keep things simple: a debt free balance sheet with only the necessary amount of cash tied up in stock. We could add all sorts of financial treasury policies e.g. share buybacks, progressive dividends, forex hedging, but we won't; we believe staying focused on what we're good at i.e. running your vertically integrated company well and delivering consistent and significant rates of return which not only rewards you but also gives us some headroom if times are tough. Our job is to manage the business under all scenarios. So far so good.
The irony is that share buybacks over the years would have accelerated shareholder returns even faster than the returns that have already been achieved - but they clearly believe that it would not have been worth the distraction. Shareholders aren’t complaining:
FY 2026 was “a relatively normal year for us”, but “...it is not all great news, not all of our Warhammer stores have performed at a level that we are satisfied with. We understand what the issues are that need to be addressed and we're discussing with our store managers… the solutions that need to be delivered consistently in 2026/27. All but a few are profitable.” Could this be a sign of trouble coming down the tracks for the company’s retail operations, or merely a reflection of their high standards?
For more evidence of high standards, Rountree is upset that May 2026 saw the company failing to achieve year-on-year core business sales growth:
…in May 2026, we missed by £1.5 million, that still hurts. That was due to a poor execution of our plan in the final week of the year. The operational directors were distracted by the detailed planning for the launch of the 11th edition of Warhammer 40,000 in June 2026. But still, no excuses, lessons have been learnt.
AI: they are not using it in product design, which is very important. I’ve noticed an enormous amount of backlash against hobby creators who allow even minor aspects of AI to creep into their artwork or design. Most consumers still want human-produced artwork.
ROCE: this is spectacular at 196%, up from last year’s 191% (calculated on the core business). Stockopedia’s calculations aren’t at this level, but still excellent:
Outlook: no specific guidance is given, only that “we remain customer focused and look forward to building on the progress we have made”, as already stated.
Dividend: in a separate RNS, the company announces a £1.40 dividend, which will cost £46m. The results disclose that the company now believes it needs a cash buffer of £120m. The cash balance at May 2026 was £183m.
Graham’s view
I can’t speak highly enough about the quality of Games Workshop.
Of course, the secret’s out, and the shares aren’t cheap:
We’ve been GREEN on it and I’m going to leave us GREEN on it today, on the basis that it’s important to keep backing long-term winners, and there are no obvious near-term headwinds to continued success.
The stock is naturally categorised as a High Flyer (high quality, high momentum, low value).
The QualityRank of 100, which is calculated only with respect to the financial figures, is consistent with my own view (which I like to think is a mix of qualitative and quantitative factors). Buying into quality is no guarantee of success - nothing is - but I’ve briefly owned GAW before and wouldn’t mind owning it again some day. I should have held onto it!
Staffline (LON:STAF)
Up 3% at 48.3p (£56m) - Unaudited Interim Results - Graham - GREEN =
Staffline (AIM: STAF), a market leading recruitment group, announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 ("H1 2026" or the "Period").
It’s nice to see signs of life at a recruitment company: 15% revenue growth in H1 has resulted in a massive improvement in profitability:
Revenue growth was driven by “new contract wins and expanded mandates with existing customers”.
The resulting increase in profitability was helped by “strong ongoing cost control”. See the increase in profit margins above.
It’s important to highlight that Staffline is primarily a blue-collar recruiter; it’s not serving the same companies/jobs as other recruiters we cover here:
Third-party logistics, supermarket distribution, and food manufacturing generating strong demand with significant further growth potential for the Group
These three sectors are highlighted by Staffline as the strongest ones that it serves. These strike me as being potentially quote resilient over the long-term; they are certainly thriving in current conditions.
Outlook:
Strong trading momentum into H2 2026… The Group is well positioned to deliver FY 2026 towards the top end of current market expectations.
CEO comment:
"We are delighted to have delivered such a strong first-half performance, with revenue up 15.2% and operating profit increasing 57.6%, creating significant momentum going into H2… Our market leadership with its scale and reach coupled with our unrelenting focus on customer delivery and governance, means we are well placed to navigate ongoing macroeconomic challenges, leaving the Group in an excellent position to continue to grow market share.
Market commentary: I’m interested to see how they explain their success while other recruiters have struggled.
UK unemployment remains at approximately 4.9%, while job vacancies have continued to decline, with the number of available roles now around 707,000, reflecting a more cautious approach to hiring by employers compared with previous years. However, hiring within the temporary worker segment has seen a slight improvement on the like-for-like data compared to 2025. This is also reflected in the uptick in temp-to-perm movement.
Blue-collar temporary recruitment is 90% of Staffline’s business, and so the slight increase in the temporary sector helps to insulate it from weakness elsewhere. Additional growth on top of that must be coming from increased market share - which the company is clearly achieving.
Net debt: one blemish on the performance is an increase in net debt, but this is a seasonal event for the company. Note that it happened last year, too - a very large outflow in working capital, including a Q1 VAT payment.
The cash performance is not all that different from last year, so I won’t read much into the large outflow.
Adjustments: there are no “non-underlying charges”, and there were only £0.4m of such charges in H1 last year. So these results are nice and clean.
Dividends/buyback: Staffline has not been paying dividends, preferring to buy back its own shares instead. When your stock is at a single-digit earnings multiple and you are confident in your outlook, this can work out very well:
Estimates: at Zeus, the adj. PBT forecasts are upgraded as follows.
2026 estimate is now £9.4m (previously £8.7m)
2027: £9.7m (previously £9.1m)
2028: £10.1m (previously £9.4m)
The way I think about these forecasts is that they’ve significantly accelerated the company’s expected progress: the company is now expected to achieve in 2026 what had previously been forecasts for 2028.
Graham’s view
Recruitment has been an object of fascination for us at the DSMR. Is it structurally broken or just going through a rough patch? It appears that it is still possible for recruiters to succeed, but they have to be either 1) in America, or 2) in the blue-collar space.
Fortunately, Staffline fits into one of these categories. I’m pleased to see that I upgraded our stance on this one to GREEN in May when the share price was 40p. There’s no reason at all to change my stance today.
The choice to buy back its own shares rather than pay a dividend is either courageous or foolhardy: I’m leaning towards courageous.
Roland's Section
Journeo (LON:JNEO)
Down 0.4% at 473p (£474m) - Trading Update - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =
Today’s half-year update from this “leading provider of intelligent systems for transport networks and critical national infrastructure” flags up strong revenue growth but a somewhat weaker profit performance.
Broker Cavendish has left FY26 estimates unchanged but has now introduced forecasts for 2027, adding some colour to the company’s claims of an improved opportunity pipeline.
Let’s take a look.
H1 2026: key points
Revenue up 53% to £37.6m
Adjusted pre-tax profit up 10% to £3.0m
Cash balance reduced to £12.6m (H1 2025: £18.0m)
Sales opportunity pipeline “increased substantially to £200m” (H1 2025: £80 million)
Sales order intake up 3% to £31m, “providing increased visibility into H2 2026 and beyond”
The reduction in cash follows a £10.7m payment for the acquisition of Crime and Fire Defence Systems in September 2025, so I don’t think this is a concern in itself.
H1 order intake seems fairly pedestrian to me relative to the increase in both sales and the opportunity pipeline, but I recognise that six months is a short time and new wins can be somewhat lumpy. I think these metrics are often more useful over 12 month periods.
What’s less clear to me is why a 53% increase in revenue has only translated into a 10% rise in pre-tax profit. At first glance, this seems to suggest the extra revenue came from lower margin work – or that Journeo’s cost base is growing faster than its sales.
There’s no comment on this today from the company, but broker Cavendish does mention it in today’s note, commenting that management expects “lower margins in 1H than 2H” as a result of product mix and a higher weighting to US sales in H1.
Updated FY26 guidance:
Revenue for the full year is expected to be marginally ahead of current market expectations, with adjusted profit before tax remaining in line with market expectations.
Checking broker forecasts (with thanks to house broker Cavendish) shows the following, with FY26 forecasts unchanged today:
FY26E revenue/adj PBT: £72m / £7.4m
FY26E adj EBIT margin: 10.1% (FY25: 10.0%)
FY26E adj EPS: 32.2p
These forecasts confirm a 41%/59% H2 weighting to pre-tax profit is expected this year. This is said to be in line with expectations. I don’t think this is necessarily a concern, but it could be worth watching as I don’t feel the company has provided much visibility on the reasons for this.
FY27 outlook: forecasts initiated
Shareholders with access to broker forecasts can gain an information advantage today by studying newly-initiated 2027 forecasts from Cavendish.
These numbers are useful because we can assume they are a broad reflection of how management expects the group’s order book and pipeline will translate into revenue and profit next year. Here are the key numbers:
FY27 revenue: £80 million (+11% vs FY26)
FY27 adj pre-tax profit: £8.0m (+9% vs FY26)
FY27 adj EPS: 33.4p (+4% vs FY26)
My reading of these numbers is that the shift towards lower margin work and/or a higher cost base is expected to continue next year. Cavendish’s numbers imply an adjusted EBIT margin of 9.8% in 2027, down from 10.1% in 2026.
Roland’s view
Today’s forecasts put Journeo on a FY26E P/E of 14.7, falling to 14.2 in FY27.
This doesn’t seem excessive to me for a business with a net cash balance sheet and decent quality metrics:
However, expected 2027 revenue growth of 11% is a long way below the 31% that’s forecast for 2026, suggesting the strong trend of recent years could be weakening:
The StockRanks are moderately positive here. On balance, I share that view:
I think it’s fair to leave my previous AMBER/GREEN view unchanged today.
Luceco (LON:LUCE)
Down 9% at 232p (£388m) - H1 2026 Trading Update - Roland - AMBER =
(Disclosure: at the time of writing, Roland has a long position in LUCE.)
Shares in this “designer and manufacturer of residential and commercial electrification products and systems” have fallen by nearly 20% since June’s announcement that long-time CEO John Hornby plans to retire this year.
As Mark commented at the time, this could prove to be a harsh reaction, but Hornby has been in charge for 21 years and is the architect of the group’s recent success. Today’s update confirms that the search for a successor is underway and that “advanced discussions with a number of candidates” are taking place.
H1 trading: smart charging boost
Despite the downbeat reaction to today’s half-year update, expectations appear to be unchanged today. Although an H2 weighting will be needed to meet full-year profit guidance, this has been fairly typical for Luceco in recent years so is not necessarily a concern.
Here are the key numbers from H1:
Revenue up c.13% to £143m with growth accelerating to c.15% in Q2 vs 11% in Q1
Adj operating profit up c.14% to c.£15.8m, with a margin of 11.1% (H1 25: 11.0%)
Net debt of £69.6m (H1 25: £68.0m) with leverage reduced to 1.5x EBITDA
Growth driver - Energy Transition revenue up c.120% YoY: it’s been clear for a while that growing demand for EV charging products has been powering Luceco’s profits. To this is now added a growing contribution from Demand Flexibility.
As I understand it, Demand Flexibility refers to Luceco acting as an aggregator to vary electricity demand according to grid requirements. Underlying this are EV owners who use the company’s Sync Energy systems and associated software. Luceco now has over 10k smart chargers signed up to this system and generates revenue from grid operators for helping to manage demand.
The attraction of this revenue line is that it has the potential to provide a recurring income from past hardware sales, adding to the lifetime value of these products.
Checking back, revenue from Demand Flexibility was described as “immaterial” in 2025 but “progressively more meaningful” in 2026. Hopefully the company will provide some numbers on this soon, perhaps with its half-year results.
It may also be worth noting that there’s no explicit comment on charger sales today – I’d hope to see this broken out in the interim results, so we can see if the installed base is still growing at an attractive rate.
Core business: sales in the group’s core business (electrical and lighting accessories) rose by 6% in H1. I’d guess that a good chunk of this reflects price increases to offset increased costs.
Headwinds: Luceco does most of its manufacturing in China and reports “continued headwinds in certain commodity prices”. I’d imagine logistics costs may have risen too. However, stable H1 margins suggest the company has been able to increase prices and control costs to offset the ultimate impact of the Middle East conflict.
FY26 Outlook
Demand Flexibility revenue is subject to regulatory oversight and it looks like the income available from each charger may already have peaked. Despite this, Luceco has maintained its previous full-year profit guidance today:
As expected, changes to the regulated mechanics of Demand Flexibility have begun to crystallise, and are expected to reduce recurring revenue per EV charger towards a more sustainable level early in the second half. Such changes are consistent with the Board's expectations and, as a result, the Board continues to expect Adjusted Operating Profit for 2026 to exceed £40m
H1 adjusted operating profit was c.£15.8m, so this guidance implies H2 adj op profit of at least £24.2m. That’s equivalent to a 40/60 split, weighting to H2.
Today’s FY26 guidance is in line and earnings forecasts from Longspur Research (available on Research Tree) are unchanged today at 17.2p per share.
FY27 outlook: Luceco has upgraded its 2027 guidance today, again citing the expected contribution from Demand Flexibility:
With further clarity around the economics of Demand Flexibility, the benefit of continued operational efficiency gains in the UK and while remaining mindful of the broader economic backdrop, the Board expects Adjusted Operating Profit for 2027 to exceed current market expectations, with the potential for further significant outperformance dependent on Demand Flexibility
Previous consensus for 2027 is specified as £42.3m, with a range of £41.7m to £42.9m.
Again, with thanks to Longspur we have updated forecasts today. It looks like this research house was at the upper end of the consensus range already:
FY27E adj operating profit: £44.5m (+4.7% vs £42.5m previously)
FY27E adj EPS: 19.5p (+3% vs 18.9p previously)
Roland’s view
Today’s guidance puts Luceco on a FY26E P/E of 13.4, falling to a P/E of 12 for 2027. That’s at the lower end of the recent valuation range for this business and doesn’t seem expensive, given the group’s quality metrics:
However, the shares are now down by almost 9% as I type. There’s clearly something here investors don’t like.
I think one possibility could be the growing dependence on the Energy Transition segment and Demand Flexibility, in particular.
With core sales up 6% in H1, at least partly due to price increases, it’s clear that the Energy Transition segment is driving most of the growth in this business at the moment. That’s a potential risk – Demand Flexibility revenue per charger already seems to have peaked and there’s no comment today on sales of EV chargers. Are previous growth trends being maintained?
The H2 weighting is another possible culprit, although last year’s results also saw a 60% H2 weighting so this isn’t necessarily a warning flag.
Finally, one possible explanation for today’s weakness is simply that investors were expecting more of an EPS upgrade: the recent trend has been pretty strong, with FY26 estimates rising by 23% since the start of the year:
Something I’ve learned the hard way is that it’s often unwise to bet against a falling share price. Quite often, the collective wisdom of the market is telling us something, even if it’s not yet apparent.
I don’t see any serious problems at Luceco and I don’t view the valuation as unreasonable, but with the current CEO enjoying a summer sabbatical ahead of his departure and no successor yet appointed, I’m inclined to maintain Mark’s previous neutral view for a little longer.
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