Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 13 June 2025) - PAY, MPE, LTI, AGR/PHP, OXIG, GRIO, MFX, NXR, MOTR
Good morning!
First up, I'm sorry that we didn't cover more in yesterday's report - it was entirely my fault, and I'll try to make up for it today! There is hardly any news today, so my main focus will be the backlog.
First up, we have a section from Roland on PayPoint.
Wrapping up the report there, thanks everyone.
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.62bn) | Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) has not given up in its bid to acquire Assura, despite KKR/Stonepeak having their cash bid recommended by the Assura board two days ago. That cash bid is 50.4p plus scheduled dividends bringing the total value to 52.1p. Today PHP argues the case for its own bid, saying that its LTV leverage will only “temporarily” exceed the target range (40-50%) and will return to that range in the short-term and that it expects to obtain an investment-grade credit rating. From a risk point of view, it notes that the combined group’s portfolio would be principally let to government tenants. Based on yesterday’s PHP share price (103p), their proposal is worth 53p, a small premium to the proposal from KKR/Stonepeak. | PINK (Graham) [no section below] It’s a wonderful position for Assura shareholders to have two competing proposals, but KKR/Stonepeak have made their “final” cash offer. Perhaps PHP should offer a little more? The premium they offer over the KKR/Stonepeak deal is less than 2% which is not much considering that one is cash and the other is a riskier mix of cash and shares. To win over Assura shareholders may require a higher premium, and the Assura board are satisfied that KKR/Stonepeak is the right choice. So for now, it looks like KKR/Stonepeak are more likely to get it through. Personally I agree with the strategic merit of what PHP are proposing, even if it is rather ambitious. The two companies are roughly equal in size, so it would always be somewhat tricky for PHP to acquire AGR. | |
Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) (£1.09bn) | Revenue +6.5% (£500.6m), adj. operating profit is up 10.8% when measured at organic constant currencies, but is only up 2% without those additional adjustments (£82m). Very large FX headwind (£8.5m) due to USD weakening. Statutory operating profit falls to £39.2m. Net cash stable at £84m. £60m disposal to boost cash further and a £50m share buyback will commence shortly. Outlook: vague. “Our differentiated higher margin business will continue to deliver attractive profitable growth.” | AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] This is a highly reputable FTSE-250 stock with a good track record, but I’m reluctant to be fully GREEN on it. For a start (and as noted by Megan in April), growth is underwhelming with orders rising just 0.9% for the year, using the company’s own adjusted figures. Multiple factors are at work here including “general market weakness”, the company’s own acknowledged mistakes, and cyclicality. Secondly, I dislike when a company needs to use multiple layers of adjustments to present its figures, as is the case here. Thirdly, OXIG’s earnings forecasts have been unstable and have been marked down repeatedly. I do suspect that it is in value territory at current levels (a takeover bid would not surprise me at all), but in light of the above factors I don’t think I can justify a fully GREEN perspective. The StockRank is only 40 and it is categorised as a Falling Star. | |
M P Evans (LON:MPE) (£537m) | Fresh fruit bunches harvested +11%. Palm oil production down slightly (less 3rd party product brought in than last year), but sale prices are up by 14%. There’s an increased final dividend of 37.5p for 2024, making total dividends 52.5p per share. Board’s intention over the long-term is to increase or at least maintain the dividend. | GREEN (Graham) [no section below] Roland was GREEN on this in March and I’m happy to leave that unchanged seeing as this is a Super Stock (StockRank 99) and not much has changed for the company in recent months besides a $34m (£25m) acquisition in April, which brought in additional Indonesian planted hectares near their existing operations. The company had net funds of $46m as of Dec 2024, with which to pay for that acquisition. Palm oil prices have cooled off since the highs they reached at the end of 2024 and are now back around the levels at which they traded in 2023 and H1 2024. | |
Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LON:LTI) (£170m) | This niche investment trust owns a stake in Lindsell Train Limited (its own investment manager, accounting for 26% of its assets) and also in a portfolio of quoted investments. The NAV return is minus 2.2% for FY March 2025 after gaining 2.1% in FY March 2024, both years underperforming the MSCI World by a wide margin. However the share price return for FY25 was better at +9%, as the trust’s discount to NAV narrowed. The main detractor to performance for FY25 was the holding in Lindsell Train Limited, which generated a return of minus 29% due to fund outflows into passives. Funds under management at LTL declined from £15.2bn to £11.4bn. | AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] It’s a quirky setup to find a trust that owns a stake in its own fund manager: it would be much cleaner to have the fund manager listed separately. But I am a fan of Nick Train’s methods and I follow many of the same stocks, e.g. Unilever, Diageo, A.G. Barr. However, the methods haven’t worked over the past five years and the fund manager is another casualty of the success of passive S&P 500 investing. LTI's net asset value per share (as of 6th June) is £968.63, with the shares currently trading at a 14.5% discount to this level. As I’m AMBER/GREEN on most fund managers and I believe their methods are fundamentally, sound, I’m content with a moderately positive view here. I’d like to think that they can outperform the indexes again, perhaps when the Magnificent 7 are no longer providing such easy returns. | |
Ground Rents Income Fund (LON:GRIO) (£25m) | This tiny REIT is gradually selling its assets. NAV decreased to £50.4m as of March 2052, with a like-for-like reduction of 10%. They made disposals of £9.2m during the period and since the period end, at a 1.8% discount to the official independent valuation of these assets. LTV falls to 6%. | AMBER (Graham) [no section below] These special situations can be tricky, as I’ve found to my cost. I’m still holding some shares in a fund that delisted all the way back in 2021, as the fund is still in liquidation and my stockbroker can’t remove it from my account - which means that I can’t crystallise the loss for CGT purposes. This experience has taken the fun out of investing in wind-down situations for me, and I’m unlikely to do it again. For those who can’t resist a discount to NAV, GRIO does offer that, subject to uncertainty around building safety liabilities and the potential impact of leasehold reform for freeholders. Personally, I’ll be staying away in the light of my ongoing experience with a delisted fund. |
Backlog: PAY, MFX, NXR, MOTR.
Backlog
PayPoint (LON:PAY)
Up % to p (£85m) - Results for the year ended 31 March 2025 - Roland - AMBER/GREEN
At the time of publication, Roland has a long position in PAY.
This has been another year of progress for PayPoint where we have delivered a resilient financial performance and made further significant steps towards delivering £100m EBITDA by the end of FY26.
This UK payments group is focused on providing a range of commercial and payment services to the private sector (mainly convenience stores) and to the public sector (e.g. some benefit payments).
Graham and I have both written positively about this business in recent months and I also hold the shares personally and in the SIF portfolio. However, the complexity of PayPoint’s results always makes my head spin; there are a lot of moving parts here!
2024/25 results summary: I’ll try and keep this as simple as possible. These group-level numbers show flattish revenue and some improvement in underlying profitability – but with the caveat that PayPoint’s profit figures have been much more heavily adjusted than usual.
In fact, the company provides no fewer than three measures of pre-tax profit, something I dislike:
Revenue up 1.4% to £310.7m
Net revenue up 3.7% to £187.7m
Underlying pre-tax profit up 10.2% to £68.0m
Pre-tax profit excluding exceptional items down 7% to £49.7m
Statutory pre-tax profit -45% to £26.3m
Net corporate debt up 44% to £97.4m
Dividend up 2% to 19.6p per share
I’ll return to the profit adjustments in a moment, but I think it’s useful first to take a look at the trading performance of PayPoint’s different divisions last year. Reassuringly, net revenue improved across the board:
Broker Panmure Liberum has published a detailed and informative note this morning. It includes this chart, which provides a much more useful visual representation of quarterly revenue performance across the business over the last four years. I hope they won’t mind me reproducing this here:
This seems to reflect the mix of mature and growing operations within PayPoint’s operations. It’s now clear to see that the Love2Shop acquisition has helped to support otherwise anemic revenue growth in recent years.
Profit adjustments: these totalled almost £42m last year, accounting for more than 60% of the group’s preferred measure of underlying pre-tax profit. Digging down into the footnotes reveals a mix of one-off and repeat items. Here are the main culprits:
£12.8m loss on a 2024 £15m convertible loan to Judge Logistics (parent of Yodel), recorded when Judge was acquired by InPost last year and the loan was converted to equity - with hindsight, this “strategic investment” now looks a little more like a bailout to me.
£14.2m settlement with customer Utilita (a pre-pay utility provider) relating to a legal dispute, the two companies have now signed a new agreement
£6.4m in legal fees – presumably relating to the Utilita settlement and a second legal dispute with Global 365 that is ongoing and currently in front of the Competition Appeal Tribunal. From what I understand, Global 365 provides pre-pay energy payment systems.
£8.7m amortisation of acquired intangible assets
Personally, I am not inclined to simply accept all of these as exceptional items. As far as I can see, they all represent cash outflows (past, present or future) and are – in my opinion – a reflection of PayPoint’s business model and risk appetite. Similar items could occur again, in my view.
Turning to the cash flow statement for some kind of reality check, my sums suggest an underlying free cash flow figure of £37.8m, before acquisitions and investments.
For comparison, reported profit after tax was £19.3m. Adding back the amortisation of acquired intangibles gives me £28m. So my feeling is that the underlying business here remains highly cash generative.
Unfortunately, there were many additional calls on PayPoint’s cash last year, including almost £25m of investments and acquisitions (of which £12m has already been written off, plus the £6m in legal costs mentioned above.
The £14m settlement with Utlita will be paid during the current financial year, representing a further outflow.
As a result of these factors, plus £28m of dividends and £15m of buybacks, PayPoint’s net debt rose by £30m to £97.5m last year. This probably isn’t a problem in itself, but I’m concerned to see that the company intends to escalate its buybacks going forward, potentially using more borrowed cash to do so.
Outlook & Updated Guidance: the company has reiterated its goal of reaching £100m EBITDA by the end of FY26.
PayPoint’s CEO Nick Wiles has also announced some new targets covering the period until FY28:
Net revenue growth of 5%-8%
Reduce share capital by at least 20% through buybacks of at least £30m per year until the end of FY28
Maintain leverage at 1.2x to 1.5x EBITDA
With thanks to Panmure Liberum, we also have updated earnings forecasts:
FY26E EPS increased by 0.7% to 75.7p
FY27E EPS increased by 4.7% to 90.2p
FY28E EPS introduced at 103.1p
These numbers put PayPoint on a FY26E P/E of 10.4 and suggest solid growth (boosted by buybacks) from the FY25 adjusted EPS figure of 69.1p.
However, PanLib’s forecasts also mirror my own view that net debt will need to rise further to support these buybacks, something I dislike.
Roland’s view
I have mixed feelings about these results. While the numbers show some organic growth and good underlying profitability and cash conversion, this progress has been overshadowed by a high level of adjusting items. I would argue that these reflect some of the underlying risks in this complex business and that ignoring them all could give a false sense of security.
More broadly, I am a little uncomfortable about the increase in debt and the apparent use of borrowed cash to fund buybacks.
While this may prove to be affordable and should boost earnings per share, extra leverage also adds risk to a business where organic growth has been inconsistent and not especially strong. I’d prefer to see PayPoint deleverage and focus on returning genuine surplus cash to shareholders.
However, I need to maintain a balanced view. As far as I can tell, PayPoint’s operating businesses are continuing to perform largely as expected. Underlying profitability and cash generation still seem good and my sums suggest the stock could be valued with a free cash flow yield of c.7% at current levels. That’s potentially attractive, in my view.
I’m still broadly positive about the outlook for PayPoint shares, but my view is that the equity now looks slightly riskier than previously. I’d also like to see stronger evidence of organic growth – last year’s 3.7% net revenue growth is well below the 5%-8% rate now being targeted.
To reflect this view, I’m going to downgrade our view by one notch from GREEN to AMBER/GREEN.
Manx Financial (LON:MFX)
Up 20% yesterday to 26.5p (£31m) - 2024 Results Advance Guidance - Graham - AMBER
I tend not to comment on Jim Mellon stocks very often, but there’s been a request that I look at this one. Manx Financial is the owner of Conister Bank.
Yesterday’s RNS does not motivate me to look at Mellon stocks more often:
Manx Financial Group PLC (AIM:MFX), the holding company providing a range of diversified financial services to the Isle of Man and the United Kingdom, is pleased to announce that it is anticipating a 41% increase in its consolidated Profit Before Taxation for the year ended 31 December 2024 to a result in the region of £9.9 million (2023: £7.0 million), subject to final auditor sign-off. The Group expects to release its full, audited financial statements no later than 25 June 2025.
A 41% increase in PBT is not to be sniffed at, and for a market cap of £31m, PBT of £9.9m screams extraordinary cheapness.
But how on earth can it take six months to publish results?
There is a reason for the 25th June deadline:
This date has allowed the Group to successfully implement the controls and systems at its wholly owned subsidiary, Payment Assist Limited, to meet the enhanced governance requirements of being part of a listed entity following the completion of its acquisition on 13 September 2024.
Payment Assist is a business that allows people to spread the cost of unexpected bills - with no fees or interest. It would be really helpful to know what “controls and systems” were lacking that have prevented Manx from issuing its results.
Graham’s view
I have found Jim Mellon stocks to be rather hit-and-miss, and I don’t think I’ll be able to judge the risks associated with this one.
Historically, I missed out by not holding onto my shares in Charlemagne Capital, his fund management business that was bought out in 2016. But there have been others, like Webis, where I’m glad that I stayed away.
Manx is probably too cheap in terms of its P/E multiple, and so perhaps I should be at least AMBER/GREEN. However, the lateness of these results is a red flag, and the reason for it strikes me as odd. So I’d prefer to stay neutral.
Norcros (LON:NXR)
Unch. yesterday at 268p (£237m) - Results for the year ended March 2025 - Graham - AMBER/GREEN
Norcros, the number one bathroom products business in the UK and Ireland, today announces its results for the year ended 31 March 2025.
The company’s expectations for FY26 are unchanged and so the market didn’t react much to these results, which I think were only a slight miss in terms of revenue:
It’s a remarkably similar result vs. the prior year.
However, I note that actual operating profit came in at only £8.3m.
After finance costs including £5m of bank interest and £1.7m of lease-related interest expense, PBT comes out at a measly £2m.
(And that’s not even the last word - the company also suffered £9m of losses on pension calculations, which aren’t on the income statement.)
It’s a much messier set of accounts than we saw last year from Norcros. The main source of the mess is “acquisition and disposal related costs” (£25.4m), which largely consists of the loss incurred when Norcros sold its Johnson Tiles UK division last year.
The explanation for the loss is simple enough: “The sale completed at a consideration lower than the carrying value of the assets of the business.”
Checking the balance sheet, I see that the company’s tangible net assets have reduced £54m.
Net debt of £36.8m gives rise to a leverage multiple of 0.8x, which would generally be considered very safe.
Current trading:
Group revenue in the two months to the end of May 2025 was 1.8% below the prior year on a constant currency like for like basis, adjusting for Johnson Tiles UK and the number of trading days in the period (UK and Ireland -1.1%, SA -3.2%). Market conditions are likely to remain uncertain, with the pace of recovery in the new build sector still unclear, however, the RMI sector remains resilient and the Board's expectations for FY26 remain unchanged.
Their medium-term targets include organic growth of 2-3% above market, and ROCE >20% (underlying ROCE was 17.3% in FY25 according to the company). I’d be impressed if they managed this! Historic ROCE (without adjustments) has been 7%-15%.
Graham’s view
I’m happy to leave this at AMBER/GREEN (see Mark’s coverage in April). I like companies that are willing to rationally simplify their operations, and my sense is that Norcros is doing this. The strategic review of Johnson Tiles South Africa is said to be “nearing completion”.
In valuation terms it continues to trade cheaply, although this is another stock where top-line growth is limited (or non-existent). So do bear that in mind.
Pension repair contributions (i.e. repairing the deficit) are set to end after June 2027 and are modest at £4.5m per annum.
To my eyes, therefore, this is another cheap stock. There are some reasons for it to be cheap, but there are also some reasons for optimism - low leverage, disposals/simplification, and stretching medium-term targets that management are working towards.
Motorpoint (LON:MOTR)
Down 1% yesterday to 161p (£135m) - Final Results - Graham - AMBER
This is “the UK’s leading independent omnichannel vehicle retailer”.
The results released yesterday showed very nice improvement vs. FY March 2024:
One nice feature is zero exceptional items. A reminder that we don’t have to accept a barrage of exceptional items as the norm!
The company is back in profit and proposes a 1p dividend, which will hardly see any shareholders quitting the day job but is a nice gesture nonetheless. It’s an £850k payment.
Of greater significance is the share buyback. A first buyback of 3.6 million shares was already completed, and another 3 million share buyback is underway. The latest share count is 85.6 million.
The company’s £20m bank facilities were undrawn at year-end, as it had a positive cash balance of £6.6m.
Current trading/outlook: positive momentum in FY26 including retail volume growth in the first two months of the financial year. Economically, they “expect ongoing macroeconomic pressures to generally ease, with further, moderate reductions in interest rates; although mindful consumer confidence in near term remains uncertain.”
CEO comment:
"I am extremely pleased with our performance in FY25. Motorpoint has experienced several years of considerable economic headwinds that have hampered our industry. We responded in FY24 with our Brilliant Basics programme which rightsized the business and improved margin performance. This successfully laid the foundations for growth and in FY25 resulted in double digit year on year volume growth, significant gains in market share, faster stock turn, and a welcome return to profitability. I am also delighted that our customer NPS improved through the year, reaching record levels in the final quarter, and that we have been recognised as one of the Sunday Times' best big places to work.
Estimates: there is no change to next year's forecasts at Zeus. In FY26, revenue is seen rising to £1,209 million, with adjusted PBT (hopefully the same thing as unadjusted PBT!) increasing from £4.1m to £7.2m.
Graham’s view
With such slim profits margins, small differences in performance - particularly in the cost base - have an outsized impact on the bottom line. Motorpoint says that it will “continue to prudently manage cost base despite labour inflation headwinds”.
I’m inclined to leave Roland’s AMBER stance (see here) unchanged. While I do rate it as an above-average motor dealer in terms of its brand value and recognition, this is a sector that should trade cheaply given its economic exposure, low margins, and general lack of pricing power.
If Motorpoint hits its FY March 2027 estimates from Zeus, that implies a forward earnings multiple of 14x, then falling to 13x based on FY March 2028 estimates. But these estimates are highly uncertain - we had a profit warning from Motorpoint only two months ago. I think the stock is fully valued.
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45 comments
I have published this week's "Week Ahead" article for anyone who wants a quick preview of the central bank decisions and company announcements that are coming up:
Link: Week Ahead (16th-20th June)
Thanks for the PayPoint (LON:PAY) analysis Roland. Very comprehensive and fair.
Roland, thanks for the analysis of PayPoint (LON:PAY).
I have sold on the back of these results for a healthy profit, mainly following;
> share price is now at the top end of its historic level, as are key metrics.
> I dislike the approach to their reporting, too many words and too much management-speak.
> Three profit measures is far too much for a PI to get head around. Too many adjustments, which are not really 'exceptional'.
> I would agree with you that they have bailed out Judge Logistics, a well thought through 'strategic investment' would not be written off by 80% within one year.
> Taking on debt to finance a share buyback.
My first post
I also sold paypoint on Friday for a decent profit.
Red flag was using debt for buybacks
Rather than reducing leverage, I'm sure there is some clever tax efficient reason for doing this.
Not totally convinced how much value
buybacks actually achieve in the long run.
Jut recently I've been considering selling my PayPoint (LON:PAY) , have jumped too soon on other stocks I 'm keeping it on. There should be no need to mention the going ex-dividend on the 3rd of July as that is built into the current share price. Of course if the buy-backs are to pad out the Directors share options based on price performance it's a blight. Other than this, the 3-year performance chart and the 50dMA tells me there is more to come with Paypoint.
I agree with Graham about trusts winding up, I did some of these in 2016/7 and in those days the delisting and winding up was very quick. Recent ones have taken ages, a prime example being Rdl Realisation (LON:RDL^B21) formerly Ranger Direct Lending which still seems to be in my portfolio even though it went a long time ago - even the web site has been deleted! I have several on the go at the moment, and might now exit in the market if there's a profit to be made, to avoid the cash being locked up for an extended period.
With the threat of nuclear war flaring its head again, an interesting play would be Iofina (LON:IOF) who is one of the largest suppliers of Iodine I believe? There could be panic buying, panic stocking up? One to DYOR as I do not know Iofina very well.
LTI M Lindsell keeps hoovering up shares
following my previous comment on Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) , I notice that it is now the sixth most 'viewed in the community'. And it is a company with interesting niches, so perhaps worth a look
Graham, i have to somewhat disagree with your comments on LTI.
Of the 3 stocks you mention, 2 seem to have gone ex growth at the eps level.
Unilever's eps has gone from 257p in 2020 to a forecast 298p in 2025. About 16% over 3 years, call it 3% per annum between friends.
Diageo is even worse, eps of 169p in 2020, forecast 161p in 2025.
Whatever their "method" was, it clearly didn't include selling ex growth stocks when on a growth rating.
(To be fair, AG Barr did well.)
Failing to sell ex growth, or dear stocks has been a fundamental error of all the "i buy quality stocks and hold them investors" . T Smith, Baillie Gifford, Lindsell Train, the Buffetology Fund etc
It begs the question, did the bulk of these investors performance simply come from the rerating caused by the fall 10 year gilt yields from about 2.8% in Jan 2014 to 0.2% in Jan 2020?
Whatever their "method" was, it clearly didn't include selling ex growth stocks when on a growth rating ... It begs the question, did the bulk of these investors performance simply come from the rerating caused by the fall 10 year gilt yields from about 2.8% in Jan 2014 to 0.2% in Jan 2020?
Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LON:LTI).
It's unquestionably the case that the quality buy and hold funds benefited from the interest rate falls in the last decades - but so did the overall market and they outperformed that. Beating the market in the last five years has pretty much meant being in the Mag7, but outperforming an index tracker in that market is nigh on impossible.
But human stupidity is ineradicable. When the trust was flying high on a diet of bond proxies investors were piling in at a premium to NAV over 100% despite the chairman of the company and Nick Train telling them not to do it. Now it's at a discount no one wants to buy it despite the fact the portfolio is packed with quality stocks many of which are themselves cheap. Plus you have the fund manager stake, which is itself discounted due to how unloved active management is.
Anyway, apart from Lindsell Train itself the top holdings are London Stock Exchange (LON:LSEG), Nintendo Co (TYO:7974) and Relx (LON:REL) . 10% is in WS Lindsell Train North American which holds Fair Isaac (NYQ:FICO) , Equifax (NYQ:EFX) and Visa (NYQ:V) as its top three holdings.10% discount available on all of that. I've been buying when it went lower, but it's still a fair price I think.
timarr
Some very fair points in there Chris! I only mentioned them as examples of stocks that I follow as there are some quality arguments to be made for them, or at least there were! They did become overvalued, but then so did many other stocks when rates were lower.
LTI's largest individual stock holdings are London Stock Exchange, Nintendo and RELX.
As far as Diageo (LON:DGE) are concerned, I would be reluctant to invest since the younger generation do not seem to be drinking as much alcohol as their parents did. I think that this is a long-term problem for all major brands of alcoholic drink.
The problem is that Train stubbornly never sells anything - no matter what problems a company may be facing he sticks by his 'hold forever' principle. You're right, I suspect a lot of the earlier strong performance was the heavy exposure to so-called 'bond proxies' which did extremely well when rates were cut to zero.
Hi Bouden54
The problem is that Train stubbornly never sells anything - no matter what problems a company may be facing he sticks by his 'hold forever' principle.
Not entirely true - after years of buying at higher levels he sold Pearson (LON:PSON near the bottom. I was on the other side of that deal in a modest way, and it's been a highly successful purchase.
By and large they stick to their approach, which is to buy serial compounders and hold for a long time. That part of the market had its time in the sun during the period where interest rates fell to near zero, and has been less successful since. But that is the nature of the approach - no market sector leads forever, so if your approach is buy and hold it will inevitably go through periods of underperformance.
In respect of Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LON:LTI) both the Chairman, Julian Cazalet, and Nick Train warned investors off the trust in 2018 when it went to a 40% premium. Investors, being the herding creatures they are, ignored the warnings and sent the premium over 100% before the inevitable reversal. Now that it's trading at a discount it's the managers who are fools, although no one ever seems to look in the mirror.
LTI is a peculiar beast, being a combination of a normal investment trust and a fund manager. If you believe that active fund management isn't entirely dead then the company is currently very attractively valued. Also note that they're proposing a 1 to 100 share split to enable more monthly saving and dividend reinvestment.
timarr
could we please have yr views on Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) , which seems suitable for this page. It has results that appear to be good and promising, but a sharp dip in share price.
Thank you nettle, I've added my brief comment on OXIG.
Many thanks. Your comments were very valuable to me. I was strongly considering investing, but as an amateur I hadn't appreciated the points you made. Both the plus, and especially the minuses. I shall delay my investment. As St Warren Buffett has written, with a Baseball metaphor: "You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch."
Some defence shares down today...go figure!
Travel and arrive?
BAE already on 24x earnings, Babcock on 21x and Chemring on 28x.
Selling dear stocks is a tough discipline when the story is good (see comment re: LTI!)
MS International (LON:MSI) on around 13 x
Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) with the market so unsettled a little diversion - I have been awarded a tiny holding of these shares, as part of the tradeoff from AngloAmerican. What thoughts out there - Will they follow Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) up and down - worth holding on ?
I also got a holding in Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) as a result of holding Anglo American (LON:AAL) and posted somewhere here that I added more on the dip as holders not wanting them sold out, and added that Anglo still have a holding and are free to start selling that stake after 90 days.
I sold Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) mainly because the short term profit looked too good to miss, along with the platinum price falling back after big and Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) recent gain.
I used to hold Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) but sold near the bottom. It’s a good idea to check the spot platinum price to help Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) decision making.
This link is for an excellent site for all the latest commodity prices, and this particular one is for the latest spot platinum price:-
https://tradingeconomics.com/c...
I’m not sure why there is a buyer for Renold (LON:RNO) offering 84.2p this morning. They know something we don’t. However, I’m happy to get 84.2p when the offer is 82p. Maybe another bid is incoming but a bird in the hand….
Agreed I’ve just sold out - think with the Iran conflict there’s likely some buying opportunities coming so keeping powder dry!
Same, I've just sold as World events seem a bit unpredictable at the moment!
Am I naive to hope that such blatant insider trading will be investigated?
Very obvious what has happened yesterday and today: someone in the know is buying.
I also sold earlier at 84.4p after buying in at 72p off the back of reading the commentary on this board. Seemed like good risk/reward given bids already in at 77/81p at the time. Just took a medium sized position but still, easily pays for this years subscription, so thanks all :-)
Clearly not naive after that quick trade/opportunity :)
Anyone got any insight on why Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) is down 8% this morning?
Proximity to Israeli strikes on Iran.
Well said Graham - I do very much respect a person who owns up to being at fault.
Rare occurance these days - ref. one R. Reeves!
No need to apologise Graham, the Stocko writers consistently provide significant and detailed output, worth the subscription alone . Appreciated the PayPoint (LON:PAY) write up this morning Roland.
AFC Energy (LON:AFC) have signed an agreement with a supply partner which will reduce the costs of their Fuel Cells by 85%. They have also announced a strategic partnership with Volex (LON:VLX) which with volume over time will see these costs decline further. The new Management team is having a transformational impact on the operations of AFC. Its clear to see a much more commercial strategy is being implemented. You can read the full statement here
I see their price is down 10% this morning but an 85% reduction in build cost sounds bullish to me. What am I missing ?
AFC Energy (LON:AFC) is probably the worst jam tomorrow company on the market. Listed over 20 years and still no product anyone wants. Zero sales. Skeptical they can reduce costs by 85%, even more skeptical that anyone has suddenly decided they want to buy their product.
thanks
Just read offer for Renold (LON:RNO) at 82p.
Summary
· The boards of Bidco and Renold are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash acquisition of the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Renold by Bidco.
· Under the terms of the Acquisition, each Renold Shareholder will be entitled to receive:
for each Renold Ordinary Share: 82 pence in cash
· The Acquisition Price values the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Renold at approximately £186.7 million on a fully diluted basis and the Acquisition Price represents a premium of approximately:
Clearly the market knew this yesterday!! Insider trading……,
Shares are selling at more than 82p maybe not the end of the bidding.
Indeed currently at 84p, confusing
I have just exited to be safe as unclear the risk/reward is still favourable at this point. Bought in at 72p after the first offer and sold at 84.4p just now.
Management statement of "support" for the deal was hardly glowing. Read more like they had been rescued when the bid is opportunistic as Renold (LON:RNO) pension is about to be put to bed.
" Notwithstanding the strategic and financial progress achieved, the Renold Directors believe that the long-term potential of the Renold Group, as a market leading growth business in a fragmented industry, has not been adequately reflected in the price and valuation rating of the Renold Ordinary Shares, which have fluctuated significantly in the past twelve months. Investor sentiment in the public markets, particularly towards UK smaller companies, remains subdued and, when set against the current elevated level of geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, the Renold Directors consider that potential for a sustained, material improvement in the valuation of Renold's Ordinary Shares in the near term is likely to be limited. In addition to affecting the price of the Renold Ordinary Shares, this would also adversely impact its ability to access capital and drive further growth whilst remaining as a quoted company.
· The Renold Directors believe that the Renold Group's ability to access growth capital through public markets is uncertain and that the Acquisition may provide the Renold Group with improved access to flexible capital, enabling the removal of public company costs and, along with additional insight and support which Webster brings, give it the best chance to achieve its STEP 2 Growth objectives faster and more sustainably than Renold would be able to achieve alone as a listed entity."
Having the bidder tell shareholders they're generously paying 50% above the undisturbed price ignores the "insider"uplift before the announcement and that the market has made considerable gains since.
LTIT is our 6th biggest holding by cost, I hope one of the team comments on today's results. Michael Lindsell has been a consistent buyer of their shares, I've been happy to add a few more when he adds a lot but it will be interesting to see market reaction to the dividend cut. I thought their recent substantial holding in Clarksons was well timed but today's Middle East events might test that!
Morning All,
One of those "Tin Hat" days today, could present one or two opps...
It never ends…….one thing after another.
What do you expect with an idiot in the White House.