Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 4 April 2025) - THG, JEMI, GOT, CAV, QUBE

4th Apr by Graham Neary

111 comments 5313 reads

Good morning.

It has been a tough week in the markets - the FTSE down 2.2% and the AIM down 4.5%. At least stocks can't go down any further tomorrow!

As the fallout continues from Trump's tariff announcement, I'm still hopeful that this will be a temporary rather than a semi-permanent obstacle to global trade. This quote stood out to me, reported in the last few hours:

That’s the beauty of what we do. We put ourselves in the driver’s seat. If we would have asked some of these countries, most of these countries, to do us a favour, they would have said now they’ll do anything for us," Trump said.

“If somebody said they are ready to give you something phenomenal, it’s good," Trump added, on being asked if he would make a deal with countries.

Therefore I'm still hopeful that despite what Trump's aides have said, this is in fact an enormous negotiating tactic. And that in six months, perhaps many of the tariffs will be reduced if not eliminated completely, with Trump able to point to various concessions he has achieved for the United States.

But I acknowledge that in the short-term, this prospect is cold comfort. We'll have to assume these tariffs are here to stay for the time being.

12pm: I see that China is hitting back with a 34% tariff on all US goods from April 10th. Index movements:

Dow futures down 2.6% overnight after falling 4% yesterday.
The FTSE is down nearly 4% today (down 6% in total this week).
The AIM All-Share is down 3% (down 7% in total this week).

These are the days when a brisk walk outside, or a relaxing swim, can be the best response. Those with cash may consider buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. As usual, I am not hitting the sell button on anything today!

(This report is done for today, please enjoy your weekend!)

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
THG (LON:THG) (£434m)	Completion of Debt refinancing	Leverage reduces from 3.2x to 2.2x, pre fees, based on 2024 adj. EBITDA excluding Ingenuity.	RED (Graham) I'm unconvinced that this is a financially sound business. It remains leveraged despite raising nearly £200m of fresh equity since October.
Jpmorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust (LON:JEMI) (£354m)	Half-year Report	H1 (to January) NAV return +5.9% vs. benchmark +4.9%. Share price discount…

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littledavesab

4th Apr

Is it fanciful to hope the manufacturing cost in those Myanmar / Bangladesh etc is sufficiently low to be able to handle a 40% tariff?

Interesting take on the reasoning behind hitting the poorest countries here - https://www.theguardian.com/us...

Patrickmylnetrade

Can I short it?

Couple of thoughts.

1. The biggest global companies have outgrown their home markets (even in the US). If we remember the days of "national champions" that was back in the 1980's! These days the likes of Nike, Apple, Boeing etc are global with interests with diversified
manufacturing etc. There is no way I am a Trump supported and definitely not liking anything that is going on, but this is probably a bigger "hiccup" for the global diversified companies. Also the political elites/top economists do give too much attention to the big global players and not as much as they should to true national champions like...erm BT (ok maybe not BT but you know what I mean) .

2. If manufacturing returns to the US it will most likely be in hi tech fitted out factories, plenty of robots, very few workers, that will not resemble the "good ole days".

af20001

Err, nothing?

laurie

Apparently the setting of tariffs is not in the president's gift anyway.

This is a good explanation: https://natlawreview.com/artic...

Samsgrandad

Pre Trump's election I heard a supporter say he was looking forward to paying less taxes, because when "they" pay the import tariff, income taxes etc can be reduced.

JimMcLad

Hope Volodymyr Zelenskyy has .........

dulciemo

I hope the US citizens do suffer. They put the idiot in charge and voted for him and half of potential voters didn't bother to vote so you get what you settle for.

gmtrader

Well certainly there is blood on the streets.

Topped up my ISA as it's the last day today and gone on a shopping spree.

I actually turn 55 this year and it would be a dream to retire at 55, but that is not a reality for me. Maybe in 3 years? So while I don't need to worry about my investments in the near term, I have taken advantage of the fall in prices while I still have a little cash left to invest later if I wish. How low the markets go is really any bodies guess, but when I see a good price I add knowing that in 3 years time the markets will likely be higher ( I hope).

A little fact: 60% of US citizens are invested in the markets. Which is by far more than most countries.

djlcollinge

Their electric vehicles are much poorer than the Chinese equivalent. European and Japanese cars much better too.

SCI20

I cannot think of any physical goods that are superior in quality.

Lefty99

Good thinking. I am 57 and hoping to retire before 60. A few months ago I decided to alter my pension from equities into bonds, and cash. Thinking of changing back now.

Just a little thought: If a product in the shops that everyone wants is slashed in price, everyone rushes out to buy it. Yet, in the Markets it is often the opposite.

Turn your screens off and get outside to enjoy the sunshine over the weekend. Have a good weekend everyone. Most things in life do not seem that bad after time and you often wonder why you worried.

Silver Moon

There must be lots of pen-pushing bureaucrats coming on spare to learn a semi-skilled trade.

Barbara

Well you’re guaranteed that as presidents are only allowed to serve 2 terms unless he rewrites the constitution.

Wigge

The only "good" thing to come out in the last two days is I'm now beating my bench mark the FTSE All-share.

JohnDoe2378

Looking at long term chart for FTSE100, not even much of a pullback noticeable. Pure conjecture, but 7500 could be a real possibility

Mark L.

Thanks. Interesting reading and I bet the lawyers have a field day arguing this one in court.

NeilS

When I bought an X5 I had to wait for it to arrive from the USA! So maybe not such a big deal. Don’t own one now though.

Pimlico on Thames

5th Apr

I remember an extended stay in the Philippines around 2009/10 when the great contango formed part of the GFC. As I looked out to sea, the number of tankers rose each week while waiting for oil and gas prices to recover.

I can't help wondering if a similar scenario may arise, whereby ships carrying cargos now subject to the tariffs choose to sit it out offshore for a few weeks on the basis that patiently doing so will be rewarded by the return of profit margins from lowered tariffs offsetting the cost of waiting .

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 4 April 2025) - THG, JEMI, GOT, CAV, QUBE

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Graham Neary

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