Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 20th July 2026) - CRW, GKP, CSSG, DPP

The UK gets its fifth Prime Minister in four years today, with Sir Keir Starmer to make his final speech as PM this morning before handing over the reins of power to new Labour leader Andy Burnham.

Burnham will then speak outside No. 10, with an outline of his speech having already been leaked to the media.

The BBC reports that Burnham “is expected to argue that political stability must deliver "tangible" improvements along with "giving people more breathing room" on the cost of living.”

Precise details of his policy plans are scarce, but they include dropping plans for a government-issued digital ID, honouring existing licences for new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, and greater public control of water and energy companies.

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is down 0.3% at 10,550
• S&P 500 is unchanged at 7,460
• Brent crude (September) is up 2.9% at $90.60/bbl
• Gold is down 0.2% at $4,010/oz
• Bitcoin is down 0.7% at $64,100

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Roland Head joins me today.

The Agenda is complete. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

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Graham's Section

DP Poland (LON:DPP)

Down 1% at 7.2p (£68m) - CEO Succession - Graham - AMBER =

We didn’t cover DPP’s recent trading update, so I’ll do that now along with news of a CEO change.

DPP is a business that has never made much (anything?) by way of profits, but we continue to monitor it, just in case:

Today’s news is simple enough: the incumbent CEO “has decided to step down”. He is thanked and his achievements are lauded. It’s impossible to tell for sure, but my sense is that he has jumped rather than being pushed.

Indeed, his successor has already been chosen: a Polish national with experience at the polish sportswear business OTCF, where he has been deputy CEO. Before that, he spent 7 years at IKEA. Sounds like a reasonable appointment.

Let’s scroll back to the H1 and Q2 update, issued last week, to see what the new CEO is walking into.

Key points for Poland (there are also a few stores in Croatia):

• Like-for-like system sales up 3.7% in Q2, and up 6.2% in H1 as a whole.

• Like-for-like delivery sales growing well, while non-delivery sales shrank.

Due to network expansion, total system sales were up 16.4% in H1. It seems that this growth calculation is based on the conversion of “Pizzera 105” stores over to the Domino’s brand. Pizzeria 105 was bought last September.

Some numbers to demonstrate the impact of this large acquisition: at the end of H1, the DPP network had 208 stores, comprising 139 Domino’s stores and 69 “Pizzeria 105” stores.

At the H1 update last year, they had 207 stores, but this was made up of 117 Domino’s stores and 90 “Pizzeria 105” stores.

CEO comment (the outgoing CEO):

Whilst conversion activity has progressed more cautiously than anticipated, the Group is applying insights gained from completed conversions to refine the process and is now focused on accelerating the pace of future conversions.

The operational benefits of our commissary consolidation, completed in Q1 2026, are beginning to flow through the business, supporting improved cost efficiency, labour productivity and long-term scalability across the network."

On the topic of H2 like-for-likes being lower than H1 like-for-likes:

Whilst Group system sales and orders continued to deliver double-digit growth during H1 2026, like-for-like trading moderated in the second quarter against a strong comparative period, following a significant marketing and promotional campaign in Q2 2025.

The Group recognises the softer like-for-like order performance in Q2 and remains focused on initiatives to improve order growth while continuing to drive profitable system sales growth

Outlook:

The Board is pleased with H1 2026 performance and remains confident in the full-year outlook. The Group anticipates continued double-digit system sales growth in H2 2026, underpinned by ongoing network expansion and the continuing Pizzeria 105 conversion programme.

Graham’s view

I’m still hopeful that this might turn into an attractive investment opportunity at some point.

There’s one big difference between where the company is now and where it was a year ago, that I haven’t mentioned yet: it’s increasingly franchised, rather than running its own corporate-owned stores.

Last year, only 15% of its 117 Domino’s stores in Poland and Croatia were franchised.

This year, franchisee-owned stores are 38% of the estate.

They are “focused on continued franchise transition to a franchise-led, capital-light operating model, which is expected to deliver system sales growth, margin expansion and improved long-term returns for shareholders”.

This is a genuine and (probably) positive change in the business model.

So while the stock doesn’t offer much in terms of quality or value yet, or indeed momentum, I think it’s worth continuing to check for progress!

I was neutral on it at this year’s full-year results, and will leave us neutral on it today.

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Roland's Section

Craneware (LON:CRW)

Down 9% at 1,110p (£381m) - Notice of Cyber Security Incident - Roland - AMBER/RED ↓

It’s unfortunate for Craneware that this cyber attack comes less than a month after the company issued a profit warning in what could be an early sign of regulatory headwinds.

While there is unlikely to be any connection between the two events, my experience is that it often pays to be cautious when companies are experiencing multiple problems at the same time. That’s especially true in a case like this, where both problems could end up being more serious and longer-lasting than they first appear.

Craneware cyber attack - key points

Today’s announcement has left me with a mixed view on the likely severity of this cyber attack. On the one hand, everything seems to have been contained and business operations are continuing without issue:

• Craneware has suffered “unauthorised access to a subset of its data environment”.

• The company’s incident response plan has been activated and an investigation is underway.

• The “incident has been contained and there has been no disruption to customer services or to the Company’s operations”.

• Retained cyber security service providers have been supplemented by “external cyber security and forensic specialists”. These external specialists have confirmed there are “no residual indicators of compromise” in the company’s systems.

• The relevant authorities have been notified in the UK and US.

Data breach: “significant volume” stolen

On the other hand, the company’s description of the extent of the data breach sounds less reassuring to me:

Investigations so far have established that a significant volume of file names were viewed and exfiltrated. The current assessment is that a large element of the data involved is non-sensitive or already public regulatory data. A percentage of Craneware employee data as well as a subset of customer and partner records have been accessed and exfiltrated.

The way I read this, Craneware is saying that a lot of data was stolen, but most of it wasn’t very important or confidential.

This claim seems to be slightly at odds with the idea that the attackers have gained access to employee, customer and partner data.

I wonder if the people and organisations whose data has been stolen share Craneware’s view that it’s largely “non-sensitive or already public”.

Impact assessment is still underway

In any case, it sounds like it’s too soon for a definitive assessment of the data that’s been lost and the commercial or legal consequences:

The Company is continuing to assess the precise nature and scope of all the data involved and is working with its advisers to identify affected parties and prepare appropriate notifications, including any required further notifications to relevant authorities, in each case in accordance with applicable regulatory obligations.

Outlook

Further updates are promised “as appropriate”.

We are told there has been no impact on operations, so I assume existing guidance for FY26 and FY27 remains unchanged at this time, barring perhaps some additional costs relating to the incident.

Roland’s view

The market reaction to today’s news has been relatively muted, with the shares down by 9% at the time of writing. One reason for this may be that Craneware has already suffered a fairly dramatic de-rating over the last year – the stock has fallen by 50% since July 2025:

This decline has left the shares trading at an unusually low valuation for this business:

For some context, the P/E has generally been above 20x in recent years:

This low rating appears to be at least partly due to concerns about the future of the US 340b programme, which allows hospitals and clinics to make discounted drug purchases. As Graham mentioned recently, Craneware’s core product appears to have been built around the US 340b programme, but there now seems some uncertainty about the future prospects for 340b.

If Craneware can adapt to changing conditions and maintain the relevance of its product offering, then I think this low rating might be an opportunity.

Recent CEO share buying could also be a positive indicator – Craneware CEO Keith Neilson spent £100k on shares at 1,102p following the recent profit warning, adding to his existing holding of 3.2m shares (with a 9.4% interest, he is Craneware’s largest shareholder).

However, I’m less positive about this purchase than I’d normally be for a CEO buy. After all, the amount Neilson spent was around only one-tenth of his annual dividend income of c.£1m from Craneware.

The combination of a profit warning, a business model that may need to change and a cyber attack means my confidence in the outlook for this business is lower than I’d like.

To reflect this view I’m going to move our view down one notch to AMBER/RED today.

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Croma Security Solutions (LON:CSSG)

Up 6.5% at 73p (£10.0m) - FY26 Trading Statement - Roland - BLACK (AMBER =)

Checking back in the archives, the last time we looked at this UK locksmith and security solutions business was in November 2025. Croma’s strategy is to expand through bolt-on acquisitions to act as a consolidator in these sectors.

At the time of my last review I noted that without significant earnings upgrades, FY26 profits were likely to be substantially below FY25 levels. The shares have trended lower since then:

Today we have a full-year trading update for FY26 and updated broker note, so it seems a good time for a fresh look.

FY26 trading update (y/e 30 June 26)

• Revenue to be +15% at c.£11.0m (FY25: £9.6m)

• EBITDA to be down by approximately 15% at c.£1m (FY25: £1.17m)

• Net cash of £4.9m, up from £4.4m at 31 Dec 25

Profits are certainly going to be lower than in FY25, but both revenue and EBITDA are said to be slightly ahead of expectations, according to the company.

The net cash balance is also impressive – net cash now appears to cover half of Croma’s market cap.

Checking the half-year accounts and adding today’s additional cash suggests to me that Croma’s tangible net asset value could be around £10.8m or 79p per share. On that basis, it looks like the current share price is slightly below the group’s tangible net asset value – potentially a value indicator.

Unfortunately, one reason for this may be Croma’s poor profitability:

Without achieving higher returns on capital and equity, this business seems unlikely to generate sustainable value for its shareholders or justify a higher rating.

I note that book value per share has been pretty flat since the bump generated by the Vigilant disposal in 2023:

Updated forecasts: is this actually a profit warning?

There’s also some bad news today, although this is certainly not obvious from reading the RNS.

With thanks to broker Zeus and Research Tree, we have access to updated FY26 estimates.

These suggest to me that today’s update should actually be seen as a profit warning.

While Zeus has increased its FY26 revenue and EBITDA estimates in line with today’s trading update, the broker has cut estimates for FY26 pre-tax profit and earnings per share:

• FY26E revenue: £11.0m (+3.5% vs £10.6m previously)

• FY26E adj EBITDA: £1.0m (+8.7% vs £0.9m previously)

• FY26E adj pre-tax profit: £0.6m (-13% vs £0.7m previously)

• FY26E adj EPS: 3.5p (-12% vs 4.0p previously)

Checking the details of Zeus’s model, it seems that there are two reasons for this divergence between EBITDA and real profits:

• Rising costs: Croma’s overhead costs are expected to have risen by 22% to £4.4m this year as the company invests in new operational capacity.

• Normalised tax charge: it seems that the company benefited from an abnormally low tax charge last year. Checking Croma’s FY25 accounts, this is flagged as being linked to “adjustments for prior years”. I don’t know the details of this, but Zeus forecasts show the tax rate rising to 25% for FY26, from just 4.3% in FY25.

Higher costs put a dent in pre-tax profit and the impact of this is compounded by the effect of a higher tax rate on earnings per share.

The end result is that Croma’s adjusted earnings per share are expected to fall by 44% to 3.5p per share for FY26, according to Zeus.

Trading commentary

While today’s profit warning is disappointing, today’s commentary does suggest to me that Croma is continuing to make some progress:

• Two acquisitions completed in H2 - presumably these will contribute to earnings in FY27

During H2, Croma completed the acquisition of TLS Security Systems, an established locksmith and security business based in Taunton, Somerset, in January 2026, followed by the acquisition of Southern Security Services Limited, an established electronic security and specialist locksmith business based in Poole, Dorset, in March 2026. Both businesses have been successfully integrated and are trading in line with management's expectations.

Outlook

There’s no financial guidance or trading commentary for FY27 today, but Croma does make encouraging noises about the prospects for further acquisitions:

The Company has a healthy pipeline of acquisition opportunities and is actively progressing a number of discussions, providing a strong platform for further acquisitive growth.

Roland’s view

Zeus has opted not to provide FY27 forecasts today, so there are no forecasts in the market yet for the current year. I guess these will be provided with the FY26 results, but last year’s these weren’t published until November – so visibility for investors is limited.

To some extent this goes with the territory when investing in micro-cap stocks. Croma’s £10m market cap means it’s never going to justify much coverage. CEO Roberto Fiorentino also controls almost 30% of the stock, so (probably) has effective control and is presumably focused on his own strategy for building longer-term value.

None of this is necessarily bad news. Without studying this business in detail, my general feeling is that progress is being made with the group’s targeted roll-up strategy, but more slowly than expected.

In terms of valuation, the situation seems interesting.

Based on today’s forecast for FY26 EPS of 3.5p, Croma shares trade on a lofty P/E of 21.

However, stripping out £4.9m of net cash from the £10m market cap brings this P/E down to around 10x. There’s also expected to be a 2.5p per share dividend, giving a useful 3% yield.

As I mentioned earlier, I also estimate a tangible net asset value of c.79p, above the current share price.

Do Croma shares offer value at current levels? Based on the information available to me from today’s updates, I think the answer is maybe.

Taking a positive or negative view would require a greater understanding of the acquisition opportunities available to Croma and some modelling of the potential economics of an enlarged business.

If this business can become more profitable and/or faster-growing, then the shares could be cheap. On the other hand, it’s possible that this situation could morph into a value trap, with management unable to leverage the strong balance sheet into genuine growth.

I think the StockRanks’ Contrarian styling is very fair here:

In my opinion, this is a good example of a small company where private investors might be able to gain an edge through careful research. I can’t do that today, so I’m going to leave my previous neutral view unchanged.