Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 23 June 2025) - SXS, AGR/PHP, AVON, ITM, SEIT, CBOX, OHGR

Mon 6:00am by Roland Head

21 comments 4990 reads

Good morning and welcome to today's report.

The agenda is complete.

Update at 1pm: That's all we've got time for today, thank you for your comments.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) (£4.2bn)	Takeover of Urban Logistics REIT becomes effective	SHED shares will be cancelled from 8am tomorrow (24/6).	PINK
Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) (£3.7bn)	Refinancing supports delivery of strategic objectives	New £400m 5-year RCF replaces £300m facility. Options to extend. Also refinanced £150m loan.
Spectris (LON:SXS) (£3.3bn)	Recommended cash acquisition	Spectris has recommended an offer from private equity group Advent for 3,763p per share. Advent offer: 3,735p in cash plus 28p interim dividend. Shareholders will also be able to receive this year’s final dividend if the timetable allows.	PINK (Roland) [no section below] The Spectris board has recommended this offer from Advent, but rival private equity group KKR also remains in the bidding and has until 11 July 2025 to make a firm offer. KKR has issued a statement today confirming that it is “in the advanced stages of due diligence and arranging financing commitments”. Unfortunately (in my view), it looks like this high-quality British engineering group will be leaving the FTSE 250 one way or another. However, there’s still a real possibility that a bidding war between two PE buyers will increase the final offer for shareholders. If I held the shares, I would continue to sit tight.
Plus500 (LON:PLUS) (£2.4bn)	Plus500 secures new regulatory licence in Canada	Gained licence from CIRO. Will initiate services within the OTC market, with aim to expand further.
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.6bn)	Recommended combination of Assura and Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP)	Corrected at 10.50: Assura board has recommended a new cash and shares offer from PHP worth a total of ~~53.3p~~ 55.0p per share at Friday’s closing PHP share price of 103.5p. PHP offer: 0.3865 new PHP shares + 12.5p in cash, plus a 0.84p special dividend, plus April & July quarterly dividends.	PINK (Roland) Updated at 10:50 to correct the offer details Perhaps under pressure from shareholders, Assura’s board has engaged more closely with PHP and secured an improved proposal that has replaced the KKR/Stonepeak bid as the company’s recommended offer. PHP shares are down slightly today, but my sums suggest that at current prices…

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bohenie

Mon 7:01am

Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) - Glad to see Assura directors have come their senses, though will be interesting to see how the financing works out and the Mkt reacts. Wonder if KKR will be back in a while with an offer to buyout the enlarged Assura/PHP Group - but at a sensible price.

Mark Carter

Mon 7:51am

MTC Blimey, is that still going?

I notice that net debt is increasing whilst revenues are decreasing. which worries me. I also see that the share count has increased substantially over the last few years. The "bankruptcy risk" stats that Stocko shows in the extreme distress region. Ouch.

Stockopedia classifies MTC as a "value trap". It seems a pretty classic one, too. It has an obsolete business model. Like Kodak and Polaroid, there's only one place it can go.

RichTea

Mon 8:41am

Will be such a shame to see this taken out, it's been a very reliable holding for me.

JohnDoe2378

Mon 8:43am

markets shrugging off Iran situation with ease ha

InvestmentHunter

Mon 9:16am

I agree.

Roland's numbers are incorrect in the summary page. The new PHP offer is 55p and KKR is 52.1p. So PHP offer much better

bsharman

Mon 9:28am

Morning Graham. Did you speak to the management of Record (LON:REC) and if so are you able to report back. Thanks!

Silver Moon

Mon 9:59am

Petards (LON:PEG) , does anyone agree with my estimation that a holding will be worth keeping over the next 5 years?

Roland Head

Mon 10:03am

Hi InvestmentHunter,

Thank you for flagging this up, my apologies for the error. I had not included the two declared quarterly dividends in my total.

I have updated an corrected the section on Assura (LON:AGR) / Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) now.

Roland

carmensfella

Mon 10:40am

Join us for MelloMonday tonight: https://www.melloevents.com/mm...

There is plenty on offer with two company presentations, a keynote on HK/China & two companies to be BASHed on our popular panel.

5:00pm Wallace Lo is presenting on Hong Kong/China Equities and Trade War
5:40pm Company Presentation from STV (LON:STVG)
6:20pm Company Presentation from Theracryf (LON:TCF)
7:00pm Q&A with the Mello Founder, David Stredder
7:15pm Mello BASH Panel (Mark Simpson will cover Macfarlane (LON:MACF) & Ildar Davletshin will cover Trustpilot (LON:TRST)

Hope to see you asking some questions & engaging with our presenters...

Use MMSTOCKO50 for 50% off

Morris1602

Mon 12:27pm

Megan - I generally enjoy reading your reviews but the facts regarding ITM Power (LON:ITM) ( I hold) are a little wide of mark. ITM doesn't generate electricity but uses it so any comparison with Sizewell is inappropriate. Technologically you are perhaps thinking of fuel cell companies like Ceres Power although even they would not be generating power for the grid.

ITM Power (LON:ITM) were a little ahead of the game in that under the previous CEO they built manufacturing capacity well in excess of needs at the time; now, with demand rising and the strong focus of the new CEO on sales as well as product quality, their Gigawatt scale (/year) manufacturing capacity positions them well as one of largest in the world, averting the need for potential customers to look any further.

Hydrogen, incidentally, is if anything less dangerous than the natural gas use in our kitchen gas cookers and certainly far lower threat than the magic ingredients in that giant cooking pot at Sizewell.

Is it still AMBER !

sparkler

Mon 2:03pm

I think it might be better if you explain what you think is the buy case, Silver Moon. All I can see is a very small loss making company finding orders slow in both rail and defence markets. If you have some greater insights or knowledge of what is going to drive growth please do share.

dscollard

Mon 2:34pm

A few more corrections on the ITM Power (LON:ITM) opinion piece in terms of data corrections

1) Each Poseidon module develops 20MW of power not 2MW (which is the lowest base module) some of the recent contracts have been for multiple modules - typically 120MW. The modular nature does make it scalable

2) short interest is at 3.65% from FCA pubs -not 5.4% Table below , outranked by a good few FTSE 100 and 250 names

3.) ITM Power (LON:ITM) still has a good bit of cash on the balance sheet with £203m so a bit of runway even as it accumulates contracts which will deliver revenue in advance of the end of that runway based on on current burn rates

4.) another tailwind is the Government Hydrogen Allocations Rounds of which ITM Power (LON:ITM) is a leading supplier: the 27 projects identified in this scheme in April 25 will deliver 765MW of hydrogen power between '26 and '29 . There are significant capital and revenue support components of this scheme which run over 15 years. Including that in your piece might have been informative and more reflective of the current status of the sector and the investment case rather than the historical Covid narrative. . FWIW, in units of your article that is 0.765 GW or 24% of a Sizewell C for a fraction of the cost delivered 10-12 years sooner at a minimum.

While i am a huge fan of nuclear, let's be clear Sizewell C is due late 2030s if it all goes to plan... Given Hinkley Point was originally supposed to be operational in 2025, the base case now is 2030 with an overrun from an original budget of £18bn to current estimate of £31-35bn with a potential end cost of £45bn and a more likely operational date later in the 2030s . So let's not hold our breath on the Sizewell C delivery date (or budget) . It is a bit of an apples and elephants comparison.

There's a lot to be said for small, quick, low cost modular sources of power to complement the monolithic behemoths which have a track history of delays and overruns

Your "hunch" actually has a bit of data and a few positive catalysts behind it.

Hopefully the above corrections are helpful in informing others.

Disclosure I am long ITM Power (LON:ITM) from 28p so it's more than a bagger for me and risk free (as I took profits to cover capital ) though to be clear I am much more of a trader than an investor so my risk appetite is different (though rooted in data)

To add some more context on why ITM Power (LON:ITM) is a bit more of a flash in the pan here

Below is a relative strength plot of the UK LSE for all 1060 names with MCAP >£30M

The Renewables sector is the stand out performer over the past month and quarter (top right rising in both timescales) with the sector up 42% YTD: bubbles are sized by total mcap

below is a plot of all the Renewables sector components again on a 1 month and 3 month basis ITM Power (LON:ITM) is the best of the bunch (size = mcap, coloured by bearish (red) to bullish (green) )

Aligning with the strongest name in the strongest sector is often a good idea in high momentum plays from a trading point of view

Mon 3:00pm

Hi dscollard,

Thanks for pointing out the MW typo- I have corrected this.

Mon 3:24pm

Hi sparkler, I totally agree with what you say and cannot understand why anyone would want to buy its shares. My experience comes from buying Petards (LON:PEG) at the peak of 29 pence in July 2017 and deciding to shoot the dog in August 2024 at 7 pence/share all the while hoping the management was worth its salt. Which it wasn't and still isn't but feel there is grounds for going long on it. Stocko and its merry men have taught me to buy low and sell high but a possible 5-year wait is beyond my territory.

TheRaven

Mon 5:03pm

Disappointed that Stocko have not updated Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) share price post consolidation.
Maybe tomorrow. (Isn’t that a song??)

10Bagger

Mon 7:12pm

Dscollard, thank you for your well explained and thoughtful counter to the review, extremely helpful.

Mon 7:38pm

The shares were suspended, try looking up Greatland Resources tomorrow.

Mon 7:54pm

No, they were trading on Aim today. Google has closing price at 325.50p.

Mon 9:00pm

Nearly 650,000 Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) shares traded today. Suspended today? No. Friday 20th, yes. Stocko keep up.

8:06am

Stocko is well behind the curve then. I bought into the Retail Offer at 350 pence :-(

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 23 June 2025) - SXS, AGR/PHP, AVON, ITM, SEIT, CBOX, OHGR

Companies Reporting

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Roland Head

21 comments

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