Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 13 Mar 2025) - Pension News, VANL, IGG, ESYS, FAN, GMS, OSB, GEMD, STB, CABP, DFS, RST

13th Mar by Graham Neary

58 comments 5572 reads

Good morning! Thanks for all the positive feedback on yesterday's report. Today's Agenda is now complete.

1pm: wrapping up for now, thank you.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Halma (LON:HLMA) (£10.0bn)	TU	Adj. EBIT margin for FY March 2025 now expected above 21% (prev: “around 21%”).
IG group (LON:IGG) (£3.2bn)	Q3 TU	Trading rev +15% year-on-year, driven by higher rev/client. Confident of meeting exps.	GREEN (Graham holds) A pleasing update with revenue growth flowing from positive market conditions - there are plenty of reasons for customers to want to trade in this environment. Against that, customer numbers aren't growing much. A new buyback could be announced after the balance sheet is adjusted, leading to further share count reduction.
Deliveroo (LON:ROO) (£1.82bn)	Preliminary Results	Robust top line, adj. EBITDA at top end of guidance. Outlook: high single digit growth.
Osb (LON:OSB) (£1.55bn)	Preliminary Results	Adj. PBT +4%, actual PBT +12% (£418m). £100m buyback. 2025: low single digit loan book growth.	GREEN (Graham) I tend to be positive on cheap lenders in this environment, and can find few reasons not to be positive on OSB at this valuation. It's going to buy back some shares very cheaply using only a fraction of post-tax profits, while also paying a well-covered dividend.
Savills (LON:SVS) (£1.43bn)	Final Results	Rev +7%, adj.PBT +38% (£130m). 2025: most markets in recovery. Expects refinancing-driven activity.
Allianz Technology Trust (LON:ATT) (£1.40bn)	Final Results	NAV +35.6%, behind benchmark. Avoided excessive concentration risk. Discount narrowed to 8.6%.
Trainline (LON:TRN) (£1.39bn)	TU	FY Feb 2025: rev +12%. EBITDA margin: marginally ahead of guidance. New £75m buyback.
Volution (LON:FAN) (£1.03bn)	HY Results	Rev +4% organic. PBT -11.3% due to non-underlying costs. Outlook: ahead of consensus.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] The SP is up 30% since we looked at it last year. The company has "good momentum" going into H2 with structural growth drivers that include tightening building regs, demand for quality indoor air, and the need to reduce energy costs. With earnings for FY July 2025 trending ahead of consensus (30.4p), I think the current-year PER is likely to be c. 18x. Organic revenue growth is modest at 4%, and I note a large gap between statutory and adjusted earnings, due to acquisition activity. Acquisitions have resulted in net debt of nearly £190m and a higher leverage multiple of 1.5x, and the balance…

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JohnDoe2378

13th Mar

Kitwave (LON:KITW) down 5% today, another 52xweek low. Crazy. Forward PE of 7

ISAallowance

Ex-div today

Rusty2

There has been some director buying recently at Kitwave (LON:KITW)

doug2500

FWIW I completely agree with Graham on Volution (LON:FAN)

If I was in charge I'd be considering a raise at these prices of about a 10% increase in shares. This would knock a big hole in debt and leave it with an easily manageable amount. I might feel differently if they were at 3 or 4 pound but if they could get it away at £5.60 I think it would put them on a really solid footing.

Or they could cut the divi but I think that would hit the price harder than a raise. They probably don't need to do either if nothing goes wrong but risk is up.

The best roll ups happen when cash flows fund them.

I hold.

boringchess

Where's the monopoly? I can't really speak for outside of the UK, but as a commuter in UK I can't understand why anyone is still using Trainline. I switched to Trip.com app ages ago. Just like Trainline, they've integrated with the centralised booking systems for tickets, sort out split tickets for you if it cheaper, give you an eticket with a QR code etc. In fact when I just looked, for the same journey (my standard commute to London) Trip.com is £2 cheaper.

Surely the trend for trainline in the UK is now exclusively downwards - seems to be so many good ways to buy tickets now without punitive fees. Even just buying direct from the train websites is pretty good these days.

Perhaps I am missing the point? To me, it looks like a company living purely off of its brand at this point, can't see that they could feasibly maintain the sort of fees they're charging... Maybe its simply a circumstance of where I live and the commuting I do, but neither I nor anybody I know still bothers to use Trainline.

I don't get it either. I just book with my train company, it is just as easy as Trainline and does not charge any fees, so it is always cheaper. Just save the e-ticket. I would not use Trip, as they are Chinese, people have had problems with them, if things go wrong.

John LA

I share your frustrations, but I am heartened by the sound analysis and views of the stockopedia team backed up by the experienced members whose insights help an amateur like me avoid the rocks , except where I have rush of blood and press the buy button before taking a much needed breathe

Hope it does read across Cmcx seems to be death spiral

Couldn't agree with you more, Labour government need to wake up to the importance of outsourcing expertise. I think extending trains journeys to Europe is a real opportunity for trainline

yadi

Portfolios (usually) hits the troughs before recession and bounces back once trade war and the recession have arrived.

The experience of lockdowns during Covid is the evidence.

Markets fell before each lockdowns and rose during the lockdowns!

Yes markets slump before the recession starts but "On average, the U.S. stock market peaks five months before the start of a recession", the peak was only about 3 weeks.

So we could have a way to go. Markets have not fallen that much yet.

jonno

Hi sharw,

Apologies if I am teaching my grandmother to suck eggs, but for Harwood read Rockwood Strategic (LON:RKW) , which is part of the Harwood stable along with Odyssean Investment Trust (LON:OIT) . Christopher Mills owns 29% of the equity in Rockwood Strategic (LON:RKW) . As you stated Rockwood Strategic (LON:RKW) do not at present have board representation insofar as I am aware.

I have no doubt that Richard Staveley along with Peter Gyllenhammer, who is now holding 5.11% of the company will be having some frank conversations with the management team, led by CEO, Mark Cuttler who in fairness comes across well in company presentations. However as young Richard points out that while revenue has grown operating margins have gone nowhere in a number of years.

Canada appears at present to have been a poor allocation of capital. We shall see what the prelims bring, which unfortunately we have to wait until July for. I continue to hold and have a full size position.

Mark B

I buy train tickets via my Uber phone app. Currently they are giving a discount and I get extra American Express points. The trainline is no monopoly for me.

sharw

Hi jonno -

Van Elle Holdings (LON:VANL)

Yes, I am aware of the complex Rockwood/Odyssean/Harwood/C Mills setup. I wrote Harwood because that is the named holder on both Stocko https://www.stockopedia.com/sh... and the company itself https://www.van-elle.co.uk/sha... - I think they have used that because Harwood are named as the "person subject to the notification obligation" on form TR-1.

I did a lot of work looking at VANL a couple of weeks ago when it popped up on Ed's screen "Multibaggers: Extreme Criteria at Breakout" (and still there). I concluded that I would not buy but sit on the fence for a while, partly because of the Richard Staveley clip I linked to in my last comment.

Ex div yes but down more than 7.5p

Good call to sit on the fence. The share price recovered a fair bit from the low today. Would I buy if I didn't hold? I know the company well, like you having done a fair amount of research, so with that knowledge, yes but probably only half a position size. Time to sit back and see what transpires. There is plenty of potential and value in the company.

Fire Juggler

All good points. But why is split ticketing even a thing? My 5yr old kids don't understand why a journey to the same place is cheaper if you buy two tickets instead of one. It's a mess. ELI5 for me?

It's a great idea but I believe the Uber train app is london only as a test. And American express is 1%. of the UK card market. And TRN i think is 75% of UK - e tickets. I guess it depends how you define monopoly. But a discount is a discount, I'd do the same.!

'Does not charge any fees'? . Sign me up for the free lunch. Also worth remembering most train tickets are still subsidised by gov tax payers by 25%...

Trainline charge booking fees, the train company does not, you just pay for the ticket.

One thing l really hate on Trainline, is the misleading prices, it says from £12 on various dates in April, when l select that date, there are no £12 tickets, the cheapest is £28. Plus their booking.

Why pay a booking fee, why not just book direct, with the train company?

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 13 Mar 2025) - Pension news, VANL, IGG, ESYS, FAN, GMS, OSB, GEMD, STB, CABP, DFS, RST

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Graham Neary

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