Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 30th December 2025) - GMS, OCDO, AVAP, ALRT, LIT, JIM
Good morning! I’ll be with you for the penultimate day of the year. As Graham said yesterday, it is a time of little news, apart from the odd bit of bad news companies hope to sneak in, or results running it to the wire. So expecting it to be a quiet day, interspersed with moments of weakness!
10:50 - With nothing of interest left to report on, I'm ending the report early today. See you tomorrow for the rush of company results to avoid suspension!
Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link (updated to 26/12).
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Lion Finance (LON:BGEO) (£4bn | SR84) | Mikheil Gomarteli, Deputy CEO, stepping down from the executive role to be a non-exec.Levan Kobakhidze appointed as Bank of Georgia's new Head of Payments business. | ||
Ocado (LON:OCDO) (£2.01bn | SR16) | Mutual exclusivity has now ended with retailers in the majority of markets where Ocado's technology is currently live, including with Kroger. | AMBER/RED = (Mark) [no section below] | |
Empire Metals (LON:EEE) (£263m | SR27) | Sale of Empire's 75% interest in the Eclipse ML, a non-core gold asset for A$750k cash. | ||
Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) (£216m | SR74) | Two-year contract extension (one firm year plus a one-year option) for one of its Mid-size vessels currently operating in the GCC region. Company's backlog has increased to $607m. | AMBER/GREEN = (Mark) I have a couple of minor concerns. Firstly, they make no mention of rates in today’s extension, and enhanced rates matter far more than a backlog number to the investment case here. Secondly, the rise in the share price to the top of the recent trading range, appears to more than price in recent news. However, the positives that Roland highlighted in his Christmas Eve coverage remain; the shares trade at a discount to TBV and with net debt being paid down, there should be scope for shareholder returns in coming years, as long as management can resist the siren song of ordering more ships. So, while the valuation case at today’s 19p share price is not as strong as it was at 15p, it is still positive enough. | |
Savannah Energy (LON:SAVE) (£145m | SR69) | 11M 2025 average gross daily production of 19.1 Kboepd (11M 2024: 22.8 Kboepd), of which 84% was gas (11M 2024: 88%). | ||
| Pantheon Resources (LON:PANR) (£113m | SR22) | Final Results | Loss $5.0m FY24: $13.4m loss). · During FY25 raised $64.0m via Convertible Bond and equity issuances. Proceeds were primarily used the Megrez-1 drilling programme, preparatory activities for the Dubhe-1 well, and G&A. 30 Jun cash $13.2 million (FY24: $7.9m). Post year-end, the Company raised a further $46.25 million (before costs). These funds are being deployed to support execution of the Dubhe-1 work programme and to meet ongoing corporate and administrative requirements. | |
Avation (LON:AVAP) (£86.6m | SR42) | Delivered a new ATR 72-600 aircraft (one of the ten ATR 72-600 new aircraft ordered by Avation in 2024) to South Korean airline, SUM Air, on a 12-year lease. | AMBER/RED ↓ (Mark) [no section below] | |
Caspian Sunrise (LON:CASP) (£64.8m | SR41) | Re-issue of the licences at the Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep structures, after significant tax concessions granted: | ||
Zanaga Iron Ore (LON:ZIOC) (£63.7m | SR33) | Have completed targeted project value enhancement workstreams on time and within budget, and look forward to announcing the results of these workstreams on the 6th of January. | ||
Agronomics (LON:ANIC) (£63.2m | SR54) | $600k invested in BlueNalu Convertible Promissory Notes and $6m in Preferred Shares with consideration for the Share Subscription to be satisfied by the issue of 30,643,003 new Ordinary Shares at 14.65p. The subscription for the CPNs will be satisfied using cash from the Company's existing available resources. Agronomics' interest in BlueNalu is expected to be 12.96% on a fully diluted basis. | ||
Zephyr Energy (LON:ZPHR) (£57.8m | SR11) | Q3 production from the Company's non-operated asset portfolio averaged 925 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boepd"), net to Zephyr, versus average net production in Q2 of 632 boepd. Production from the Slawson wells recommenced in October 2025 and is expected to add additional production of circa 130 boepd, net to Zephyr, in the fourth quarter of 2025 ("Q4"). | ||
Defence Holdings (LON:ALRT) (£50.5m | SR18) | New National Security Pillar & Strategic Collaboration with Gloucestershire Police | A strategic collaboration with Gloucestershire Police to deliver a Proof-of-Value (PoV1) programme for AI-enabled automation of ROVI (Record of Video Interview) and ROTI (Record of Taped Interview) reporting. | RED (Mark) [no section below] |
Europa Oil & Gas (Holdings) (LON:EOG) (£18.5m | SR19) | Fuhai will acquire 40% working interest in EG-08 in return for funding 95% of the costs (the "Fuhai Carry") of the Barracuda well, up to a cap of $53 million for the total well cost ("Total Well Cost"). Antler shall fund the remaining 5% of the Total Well Cost | ||
Litigation Capital Management (LON:LIT) (£8.3m | SR22) | Debt covenant waiver from its lender, Northleaf Capital Partners (Canada) Ltd ("Northleaf"), that was due to expire on 30 December 2025 has been extended to 31 January 2026. | RED = (Mark) [no section below] While this is not as shocking an announcement as when Roland reviewed this on Christmas Eve, it highlights the perils here. The debt covenant waiver is extended on the day, and only for one month. I think Roland may be wrong about this being suspended tomorrow, as they released audited results to 30th June here. However, in my opinion, the most likely outcome remains that lenders assume control of the business, wiping out shareholders. | |
Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) (£7.6m | SR83) | As at 29th December 2025 the Group currently has cash of £10.4m. | AMBER/RED = (Mark) [no section below] |
* Market caps at previous trading day’s close
Mark’s Section:
Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS)
Up 3% at 19.3p - Contract - Mark - AMBER/GREEN
It’s another contract win announced over the festive period:
…a two-year contract extension (comprising one firm year plus a one-year option) for one of its Mid-size vessels currently operating in the GCC region. With this extension secured, the company's backlog has increased to $607 million.
Shareholders have certainly warmed to these announcements, with the shares up 20% on the month, and with the backlog now reaching a recent high, this shows the strength of their delivery.
Roland did a detailed review of the previous two contract extensions on Christmas Eve, so I won’t repeat that coverage. However, I think it is worth pointing out a couple of things:
Firstly, these contracts have added £45m to the market cap, or around $60m. The backlog has increased by $90m since the half-year. With a Gross Margin around 47% in H1, this will have added around $42m of additional PBT over the lifetime of these contracts. So the market has more than priced these contract wins/extensions on a purely numerical basis. Of course, these announcements also improve sentiment, and this is a share price that has repeatedly cycled between about 15p and 20p in recent times, so these moves make sense not just on a pure valuation basis. However, it is worth noting that the share price is now approaching the top of that trading range and it will probably require new positive news, not just contract extensions to break out of that existing 15-20p trading range.
My second concern is what is not said in today’s announcement. When announcing a contract extension on 13th March this year, the company said “These extensions, secured at enhanced rates…”. So the implication may be that they haven’t been able to secure higher rates for this contract. Broker Zeus makes no change in forecasts today. I haven’t seen them comment on rates for new contracts. However, average day rates were up by 8% in H1. With utilisation typically around 90%, and the need to move rigs for new contracts, any growth here is going to come from only two sources. The first is new vessels. Fleet expansion is something most shareholders would oppose, given the history of capital allocation. The second is enhanced rates. What rate enhancements they manage to deliver in H2, plus the rate outlook for 2026 will be the key figures to watch when the financial results are released.
Mark’s view
The positives that Roland highlighted in his review remain; the shares trade at a discount to TBV and with net debt being paid down, there should be scope for shareholder returns in coming years, as long as management can resist the siren song of ordering more ships. So while the valuation case at today’s 19p share price is not as strong as it was at 15p, it is still positive enough for me to keep an AMBER/GREEN view.
Given the constraints on the business, rate trajectory is absolutely key here, and matters far more than overall backlog. Especially, if these assets are to become much more productive, and hence make the business deserving of trading at a premium to tangible book value. This will be what we will be looking for when the financial results are released.
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28 comments
Avation (LON:AVAP) (I hold) Sum Air is a newly created Korean regional airline, so a 2 year initial lease does not appear unrealistic given that they seem to be closely wedded to this particular type of aircraft in their plan for growth https://mrobusinesstoday.com/s...
I hold M&G M&G (LON:MNG) and am doing very nicely out of it. But the momentum is down 10 over the last 30 days and the StockRank down 7... How so?
I think it relates to EPS downgrades:
The Avation announcement today says the new lease is a 12 year one but you have it down as 2 years?
Re Avation (LON:AVAP)
Yes Mark you got this wrong. The RNS mentions 12 year lease twice.
Can you correct. Future readers may be confused
Yes, sorry. Will, update.
Thanks Mark
Santa Rally in full swing today. Lots of retail punters with time on their hands between Christmas and new year topping up holdings in off-the-beaten-track stocks eg Seraphim Space Investment Trust (LON:SSIT), Vanquis Banking (LON:VANQ), James Cropper (LON:CRPR), Steppe Cement (LON:STCM) Watkin Jones (LON:WJG).
Not really seeing that, Vanquis Banking (LON:VANQ) is only up 1.6%. My bigger risers are Audioboom (LON:BOOM) Filtronic (LON:FTC) and Fresnillo (LON:FRES) but Eleco (LON:ELCO) is down 10% on no news.
Phoenix Copper (LON:PXC) has 2.5x'd in a few trading days, inc +50% today (as I write). No news - yet, or leak/insiders? I suppose it could be genuine interest in an early stage copper play in a decent/safer jurisdiction...
That said there has been some decent insider (director and advisor) buys very recently, this may also be putting it on people's radars.
Phoenix Copper (LON:PXC) also has gold (often found with copper) but reading their description it mentions cobalt (EV batteries etc). On-shoring of critical minerals is a high MAGA priority to reduce reliance on China and the main cobalt provider the DRC.
Only guessing but they can't do much exploration without revenue and burning through recently raised cash.
Also got some silver worth alot more now, their forecasts old using out of date metal prices. I brought a few following directors a seller has been cleared.
@GMS - Mark, there is another possibility here, GMS have now been awarded four contracts over a matter of days. It’s likely that there are other ongoing negotiations for new contracts and releasing pricing information at this stage may compromise their competitive edge. The flurry of contract awards also indicates higher level of activity within the industry which should bode well for rates.
Going forward, the company is likely to benefit from lower costs of borrowing as interest rates fall and the share price goes up.
That's certainly possible, but if they did get enhanced rates, I don't see how revealing that would damage ongoing negotiations. Indeed, if they were looking to sign contract extensions, being able to point to increased rates on other similar vessels would surely strengthen their hand, not weaken it?
The other factor is that these recent contracts have been longer ones, compared to the ones they signed earlier in the year. This is great for revenue visibility, but customers often demand lower rates to sign up for longer.
This is all speculation, though. Which is why I'd want to see the actual rates acheived in H2, plus their commentary on the rate outlook before making any judgement on the impact on the investment case, here.
Depends on the bidding process. Often closed bids are submitted along with technical proposals, pricing is only one part of the equation. Normally, clients reduce the number of compliant bidders to two or three before award. Releasing pricing information enables rival bidders to better understand your pricing model and undercut if required.
The FCA finished-off Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM), that's for sure. The FCA is just another bloated quango doing a lot but achieving very little, in my view. I too was a holder at Jarvis, but fortunately exited not at the right time but at a decent profit. The learning point for me was that they never disclosed the names of their white-label partners either by RNS or on their website. This was a red flag. Undoubtedly, some of these were partners that shouldn't have been touched with a bargepole. Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) itself had an impressively aligned dividend policy and run by an entrepeneurial owner. Unfortunately, it was too small to withstand the FCA and the enormous cost of the investigations imposed on them.
Why did the wheels come off at Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM) ?
I was a happy client till they shunted me off to ii.
It seems hat the FCA didn't view that they were treating clients fairly, in the non-execution-only part of the business. There had been an ongoing review at Jarvis's expense, for some time. There are some details in today's AR.
While I don't doubt that the FCA was acting in the interests of those it views to have been unfairly treated, the downside appears to be that as a corrollary of this, they forced Jarvis to sell X-O to ii, for what seems to be only around 2x annual OCF. In the process, they give the impression of reducing competition in the brokerage space, and damaging shareholders (of which I was one at the time). If Jarvis is right about the total cost of redress, this is probably less than they spent on the FCA review over the last few years. I struggle to see how these actions bolster the view that the FCA is there to protect investor's interests, but of course, we don't have the full picture, and we may never have it.
I always thought the FCA were using a sledge hammer to crack a walnut. Perhaps as in the phrase used in WW1 in connection with alleged cowardice, "To encourage the others". Couldn't possibly have been to kill off cheap competition, a bigger rival instigated a complaint.
Having retired from nearly 40 years in business as an IFA, Mortgage & Insurance broker, in my opinion the FCA (and all its predecessors) does very little to protect clients, it merely places a huge administrative burden on firms effectively driving up costs to the client.
As a commercial insurance broker of 50 years service I could not agree more on the effect of the FCA
I am not an expert on this but going but ever since the regime was established in the late '80s, regardless of the name and despite regulators coming from within the industry, we keep seeing issues recognised too late, with prevarication and misstep wher early action would have avoided heavy handed action well after any useful guardrails should have been put in place
I took a case to FCA and they were very helpful the firm I was in dispute with had to stick to its contract
A bit out on history there Samsgrandad. In 1757 Admiral John Byng was shot by firing squad during the Seven Years War against the French, for not being aggressive enough in battle. Voltaire commented that every now and then the English shoot an Admiral 'pour encourager les autres'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
I used Jarvis and ii. The transfer did make it cheaper for me. £19.99 a month, 4 free trades, 3.99 on all other trades with interest on cash held. Now ii are changing to 14.99 a month and one free trade. Now closing my account and moving to Trading 212. I have a different fca header but it is too brutal and rude to put here
Let me say it for you. As a regulatory body the protection they provide clients is worth F_C_All.
Must be nice going in to work each day knowing everyone thinks you are a bunch of sex donkey pits.
Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust (LON:EWI) - Saba up to their old tricks again. UK shareholders need to fend off Mr Weinstein. The worst kind of activist.