Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 14 May 2025) - MKS, GMS, HAT, IMB, GAMA, SPX, TCAP, BRBY, CRE, RNK, MSLH

Wed 6:00am by Graham Neary

46 comments 5301 reads

Good morning!

Mixed feelings this morning about the proposed takeover of H&T. I'm happy for holders of course, while also being a little annoyed with myself that I don't currently hold it! And I'm glad to see that the value of the business has been verified. But at the same time I'm also very sad to see it leaving AIM: this is a high-quality stock that I've followed for many, many years. If I was ever asked for an example of a decent company on LSE's junior market, there is a good chance I'd mention this one. So I can't help feeling that it's a bad sign that it's leaving us.

With inheritance tax changes, an IPO drought and the takeover of so many good companies in recent years, the search for quality companies on AIM is getting harder. The FTSE SmallCap Index is more interesting than AIM now, in my view.

The Agenda is complete.

1pm: wrapping it up there for now, thank you.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Compass (LON:CPG) (£44.2bn)	Half Year Results	Outlook unchanged: high single-digit adj. op profit growth. Organic revenue growth >7.5%.
Experian (LON:EXPN) (£36.6bn)	Full Year Results	Revenue +6% to $7,523m with adj EBIT +8% to $2,083m. Expect FY26 revenue growth of 9-11%.
Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) (£23.7bn)	Half-Year Report	Market share gains (+6bps) ahead of objective. On track to deliver FY results in line with guidance. CEO retirement with CFO set to take the top job in October.	AMBER (Megan) Shareholders have reacted badly to the news of the departure of the company’s CEO, who has overseen an impressive period of growth in difficult conditions in the last five years. I’m not inclined to be too positive about this one, despite the fact that it is being very well managed. The market is only going in one direction and while the company prioritises dividends and buybacks, there is no arresting the decline in sales.
Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) (£7.1bn)	Cyber Incident - Further update (Tue 13/5)	Some customer data has been taken but this does not include “usable payment or card details” or passwords. Customers are being written to but MKS says there is “no evidence that this data has been shared”.	AMBER/RED (Roland) [no section below] Marks & Spencer shares have fallen by 15% since its cyber attack was disclosed on 22 April. Yesterday’s…

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snowdrop

Wed 8:30am

Car insurance etc is a bit of an oligopoly though? Posh word for racket.

charlie51

Wed 8:52am

JNEO - they have always been conservative. The Cavendish note Fwiw:

Journeo - £10m framework agreement – MC: £48m, CP: 289p, TP: 470p
Journeo has announced a new follow-on 3-year framework agreement with First Bus expected to be worth £10m over 3 years, with an option for a further 2-year extension.
It includes the provision of the Journeo SaaS Portal, CCTV system upgrades and Journeo’s digital wing mirrors on new buses.
This continues Journeo’s close 15-year relationship with one of the UK’s largest bus operators who have nearly 6k vehicles. Around 10% of those are zero-emission and they are dedicated to operating a zero-emission fleet by 2035.
In terms of valuation, it looks compelling on an FY25E P/E of 12x (8x ex-cash) vs peers on 18x, with further upside being seen if they deploy net cash balances of £14m.

Silver Moon

Wed 8:54am

Buy the Insurer not the Policy.

John LA

I think you are right was at M&S food outlet yesterday it was busy albeit some of the shelves were empty, clearly a ransom ware attack a warning to all British companies to invest in securing their networks

Edward Croft

Wed 9:08am

Congratulations to all H&T holders - wonderful news to see value realised there.

murrb

Wed 9:10am

Gamma Communications (LON:GAMA) Absolutely not a profit warning. Feels like market manipulation to me now that trackers will be buying and looking for a good entry price. The share price now is the same as May 2019, yet in 2019 the adjusted diluted EPS was 41p, compared with the range confirmed today for this year between 90p and 95p. Just from 2024 to 2025 there is EPS growth of 26% yet the share price has dropped 25% since last May. Gamma has a habit of under promising and over delivering. There has been no increase in shares in issue either.

portugull

Wed 9:21am

Burford Capital (LON:BUR) has dropped over 5% today I suspect because Morgan Stanley have reclassified the Shares. I hold.

Can anyone explain to me is this purely because Burford Capital (LON:BUR) is now considered a US Company although still listed on AIM in London.

Graham Neary

Wed 10:17am

Thanks very much sharw, that's added to the table. G

rwh3ue

Wed 10:58am

Vertu Motors (LON:VTU) no position

Final results are surely worthy of some analysis by the team. Aren’t they?

yiannos1

Wed 11:14am

Burberry (LON:BRBY)

I do not hold

But this is not even close to RED in any way one tries to value it.

All the best

HHR

Wed 12:36pm

Has anyone read the System1 (LON:SYS1) LTIP announcement today?

I’d be interested in comments especially the sys1 experts I’ve seen commenting here over the last few years – thanks.

Part of me thinks if sys1 gets anywhere near the numbers quoted in today’s LTIP the SP has to go a lot higher…..

and part of me remembers the previous 2021 LTIP was equally exciting and sys1 got nowhere near triggering the initial threshold of that one…… that potentially awkward detail turned out not to be of any particular concern to the CEO as the remuneration committee promptly changed it’s own rules and chucked him a load of ad hoc bonus and nil cost options!

On balance I personally give sys1 the benefit of the doubt for now and I have bought a small stake this morning. I think they deserve their ‘AIM corporate Governance’ award, albeit against not much competition……. Hopefully they genuinely believe the LTIP is achievable……

shanklin100

Wed 1:07pm

Very interesting to hear about Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) apparent £100m of cyber cover. It would be useful to know if there are any clauses in the policy relating to the level of cyber competence required of Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS)

Presumably if it’s a first of its kind, highly sophisticated cyber attack that the company might not be expected to defend then I guess the policy will pay out. However if there has been gross incompetence, say within Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) technology support, opening the door wide open to hackers, I imagine the insurer would be very reluctant to pay out anything…

…after all the insurer is a business, not a charity providing protection against stupidity.

Thoughts welcome

Rusty2

Wed 1:25pm

No doubt their premiums will increase substantially. Probably quite a niche market.

ezlifeme

Wed 2:43pm

If someone was expecting me to pay out £100M - I think I would spend some serious money on expert witnesses to counter the claim. Not a slam dunk claim at this stage in my view. Standard practice to "obfuscate" and delay

ACounsell

Wed 4:30pm

Very frustrating - yet another bid after I have sold! Sold H & T (LON:HAT) at end of 2023 for c. 100% profit over my buy price. Thought that was a good move as share price stalled in 2024 and only recently, probably due to gold price strength (or undisclosed bid rumours!), made it back to my 2023 sell price. Definitely one that got away and perhaps a recommendation for buy and hold strategy though acquisitions for shares I continue to hold are in short supply!!

boringchess

Wed 4:38pm

Be a brave business that insures them at all! Maybe with a tiny coverage of say £1m only.

Wed 4:45pm

Lloyds insures all sorts of risks. Higher risk, less competition, can charge higher premiums.

Insurers will have excess of loss reinsurance. Insurers often make more profit on high risk insurance.

I think Beazley (LON:BEZ) is a leader in this type of insurance.

l'm sure many businesses require this type of insurance, now.

Harry Hindsight

Wed 6:58pm

Other than Scotland, I’m not sure the Americans nowhere the north or Midlands is. Don’t expect any understanding. Hat must’ve got some connection going to the mad suits.

Wed 7:04pm

Rule 1 - hard graft

Rule 2 - earn it

Rule 3 - don’t buy crap

Rule 4 - don’t give it to muppets and clowns aka govt unless have to

Rule 5 - enjoy life aka Mr Burkitt.

Rule 6 - know where the lifeboat and watch the Captain carefully. Plus if it suddenly gets chilly.

Wed 7:57pm

Who's taking its brand. 15% is not a insignificant move in one day for a 'dumpster fire' back in the day or 'falling star' as more politically correct modern stocko interpretation. Good enough for me - barge pole. Gearing at 155% is of concern despite rates falling (not that much).

So clearly something else going on - maybe the Chinese wear this stuff - don't see it much on Londons underground - well don't see any of it (show wealth get mugged - duh).

Have a truck ready to back up into the loading bay but why? some checkered trench coat, handbag.

Gold, defence, minerals and everything else other than retail, food outlets etc.

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 14 May 2025) - MKS, GMS, HAT, IMB, GAMA, SPX, TCAP, BRBY, CRE, RNK, MSLH

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

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