Good morning! What are the chances of another day without any profit warnings, mishaps, or unwanted surprises?

Update at 7.30am: it looks like we have possibly started a streak of days without any profit warnings!

1pm: thanks for dropping by, see you tomorrow!


Spreadsheet accompanying this report (updated to 17/1/2025)


Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

Already have an account?
Login here

About the Author

Graham Neary

Premium Member

I've been a full-time stock market analyst and investor since 2009, with the exception of one "year out"!I was a chartist (technical analyst) for three years, analysing the fixed income and futures markets for hedge funds and investment bank traders.After that I moved over to the buyside where I got my CFA qualification and learned how to manage equities and fixed income portfolios for a large institution. When given the chance to manage a diversified UK equity portfolio, I generated a return of 28.5% in two years (benchmark: 17.1%).  Avoiding the mining sector was a big help! I then took my year out to study Mandarin in China. Ever since, I've been spreading the word on how individuals can  find exciting investment opportunities.  I've spoken at countless events, taught financial statement analysis to private investors, built up a small following on social media, and have been a regular fixture here at Stockopedia for many years. The stock market continues to fascinate me and I'm sure it always will. more »

59 comments

davidjhill

PEG of 1.5, fwd PER of 40* or 15* EBITDA private market value for this type of business.

All of those suggest 350-400p is fairer private market value and therefore Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS) on sale!!

Note the Nasdaq revenues are not really included in the forecasts as I understand it so it feels as though FY26 is set up for a beat.

Reply
rhomboid1

Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS) interested to understand how a state of the art low latency connectivity business model squares with an 8 year hardware lifespan David…that seems the opposite to what is occurring in the rest of the tech sector…I’m no expert but that looks illogical 

Reply
SCI20

The FCA is and has never been fit for purpose. 

Reply
tom stokes

Volex (LON:VLX) manufacturing plant in China is for domestic market.

The one in Mexico is vulnerable as it is there to serve the American market.

Their major manufacturing is in Turkey and that would also be vulnerable.

Quite worrying for their 2 major items ie charging cables and the cables for the big communication centres such as the new one being constructed in Texas.

I hold but am concerned as it is my largest holding.

Reply
jonno

VP (LON:VP.)

Interesting development in that Jeremy Pilkington , Chairman has bought over 200,000 shares in the last week at an average of around 565p.. That is well in excess of £1 million.

Probably meaningless given that he holds directly or otherwise over 50% of the equity.  However £1 million is a bit more than lose change even for someone as wealthy as him.  I have a modest holding.

Reply
intuitive6191

RE: VP

Thank you for flagging this up

As a rough calculation this takes him over the 50% holding? Slightly unexpected as it was often  speculated that due to his age he might retire shortly and want to reduce his holding

Reply
davidjhill

it was in one of their video presentations rhomboid a couple of years back I think but I don't remember which one I'm sorry. It was in relation to questions around capex, cashflow and depreciation. I only remember them discussing that they had found the hardware had a much longer lifespan than they had depreciated. Be interesting to see if that has changed at the next set of results.

Reply
Harry Hindsight

And there I had to sit through all those financial compliance videos (money laundering, customer is king, complaints, whistleblowing, integrity, act in good faith, avoid foreseeable harm, align customers financial objectives) - see I was paying attention. 

It is one of the important purchases in life and "buyer beware" but all the emotions are in play and you have to be smart to overcome that, in which case you probably would not be arranging finance through the car seller in the first place, unless one of those 0% interest for 3 years etc deals - but who knows all the financial deals going on with that. 

Point is you have to try and train the ethics, integrity and fair play whilst making a profit. Unfortunately it seems rare in the soft pillow of public service. 

Reply
WDWombat

My thoughts are that this clearly supports the view that Katie Potts and team are one of the few outfits dedicated to small caps (not just UK listed) - especially of a tech bent - which have generally been poor for the last year or so but which have a briliant l-t record. But it also leaves me wondering whether ITs really have a future. They have typically been at fairly deep discounts to NAV over the past couple of years and in the case of Herald, like it or not, the discount has dramatically narrowed since the intervention of Saba. I noticed the 'agreement' between Saba and the Blackrock stable of ITs this morning and am hoping for some sort of rationale beyond knowing that Saba is a microminnow set against the might of Blackrock. But do closed-end funds like our British ITs actually have a future?

Reply
GavSmith01

59 likes for that - shows how crowded this trade really is.

Reply
yiannos1

Hmmmmm.

Spot on!


All the best

Reply
SCI20

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is funded by fees paid by the financial firms it regulates. The FCA is an independent public body that operates outside of the UK government
The FCA by virtue of its funding is not independent. Their history is littered with failures to prevent fraud and mis selling. 

Reply
Charles Mitchell

All I can say is if you buy a trust on a discount and it remains on the same discount you have not lost out. The discount is a function of the market, what is important is the underlying NAV performance, and a wide discount, if out of the norm provides an opportunity.

Many companies, especially Property ones trade below their Asset value- should they all be wound up ?

Gearing, in my opinion, gives a closed end fund a huge advantage over open ended funds "unit trusts". Plus no issue with redemptions. Trusts have been around since they started off funding railways in the US , projects in South America in the 19th Century and I am sure they will be around a lot longer. 

Reply
yiannos1

I have the impression that the yearly share options charge of approximately £2.5m for generating nothing is equally a major concern and a bright red flag.  If you take the rule of 10% then the FCF amount should be equivalent to £25m!

Not in a million years.

I know the ending.

All the best

Reply
Boon

He had wanted to sell out in 2022 didn't he? 

So this is a very interesting development at VP (LON:VP.) 

He hasn't bought in the years since, so the timing is interesting.

Reply
Boon

The fatal flaw in Revel Collective (LON:TRC) is hoping that the nightclubs side of the business can return to growth instead of continuous decline. 

The pubs business is probably doing decently and worth multiples of the current market cap.

Not long soon till the next restructuring; probably a split of the two businesses but not sure current equity holders will get much. Meanwhile, insiders like Luke Johnson will get to dictate the new structure and participate in fresh fundraising at a price they like. 

Reply
davidjhill

there are just 6m share options in issue (less than 10% if fully vested). Those options only vest under fairly challenging profitability and are not zero cost but issued at the price - so mostly above £1 ranging £1-£1.60

They are generally not paid to directors but senior employees in the majority.

The share based payment charge of £2.3m is a function of black scholes option modelling which of course looks at how far in the money the call option is and given the large share price rise that is what is generating the payment charge.

If you look at net issuance c. 500k or less than 1% in the last year. not unreasonable, hardly dilutive.

Reply
Rusty2

There are a lot of companies reporting, at the moment, but only 6 each day this week, have been covered, therefore many companies are being missed. Would it not be possible, to do more short reviews, on some of these? 

Reply
rmillaree

The FCA is and has never been fit for purpose.

i would say we probably protect consumers better than we used to back in the day - but yes i would agree the FCA do seem to be an incoherent outfit when i expect them to be coherent - the main annoyance should be is that if customers were being shafted by unfair practicies how could they not work that out sooner and ensure that was not the case.

I dont think its a compcliated notion that where such arragemnets are in pace everything should be transparent particularly if you are quting an apr number  

Reply
sharw

Volex (LON:VLX) 

As far as China is concerned get your answer straight from the horse's mouth - go to https://www.investormeetcompan... press the Q&A button (LHS under date) and listen to the answer to Q4.

Reply
>
© Stockopedia 2025, Refinitiv, Share Data Services.
This site cannot substitute for professional investment advice or independent factual verification. To use it, you must accept our Terms of Use, Privacy and Disclaimer policies.
Name (Mkt Cap)RNSSummaryOur view (Author)

Intermediate Capital (LON:ICG) (£6.2bn)

TU

$22bn raised in 12 months, 2x 2023. Fee-earning AUM +2.8% QoQ to $71bn.

easyJet (LON:EZJ) (£3.9bn)

TU

Q1 LBT of £61m, improved vs LY. ASK capacity +11% YoY. Holiday profit +39%. FY25 outlook in line.

AMBER/GREEN (Roland)
A solid Q1 update suggesting cont’d progress in FY25.

Quilter (LON:QLT) (£2.2bn)

TU

Core net inflows £2bn in Q4, £5.2bn for the year.

J D Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) (£747m)

TU

H1 LfL sales +5.1%. LfL sales for main Christmas period +6.1%. Labour-related costs to rise £60m.

AMBER (Graham)
Downgrading this as I'm not sure it has enough of a profit margin (after interest costs) to absorb higher NICs from April.

LBG Media (LON:LBG) (£261m)

Full-year Results

Ahead of exps for 2024 and positive Q1 for FY Sep 2025 gives confidence for new financial year.

AMBER (Graham)
US expansion provides a growth opportunity. Perhaps it's fairly valued at current levels.

Enquest (LON:ENQ) (£246m)

Acquisition of Harbour Energy Vietnam business

$84m. 53% interest in 2 production fields. Fast payback, low capex, reduced carbon intensity.

Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS) (£177m)

Exchange Cloud now live with Nasdaq

Agreement enables Nasdaq to offer cloud infrastructure and analytics. Underpins FY25 exps.

AMBER/GREEN (Roland)
Confirms previous leak re. Nasdaq. Exciting growth potential.

Secure Trust Bank (LON:STB) (£88m)Media: Reeves bids to intervene to cut lenders’ £30bn billTreasury applies to Supreme Court to prevent economic harm from excessive compensation.AMBER/GREEN (Graham)
A proportionate outcome to legal situation is now more likely.

Headlam (LON:HEAD) (£112m)

TU

Rev -9.7% to £593m. Adj. pre-tax loss c. £34m. Cash £11m and remaining properties worth £95m.

AMBER (Roland)
Losses expected in 2025, but cash from property sales should support the business.

Colefax (LON:CFX) (£46m)

Half-year Results

H1 sales+1.8%. PBT -0.5% to £4.4m. Strong in US, challenging in UK/Europe. Cash £18.6m.

Transense Technologies (LON:TRT) (£24m)

TU

FY25 in line. H1 revenue +37% at £2.4m, but net earnings exp c.20% below prior H1, due to hiring.