Our first podcast of the new year, with a general chat about how we view the markets and the opportunities in commodities and tech. Also our new years resolutions, and lots of reasons to be optimistic.
Hope you enjoy and leave feedback as usual.
https://twitter.com/DonaldPond...
https://www.buzzsprout.com/138...
As ever, it will appear on Apple, they just take longer
Among the ones I've enjoyed recently were Russell Napier on the Moneyweek podcast, James Anderson and Tom Slater of Baillie Gifford on the IC podcast and Jeremy Grantham also on the IC podcast. They are all free. There is also a very good Jeremy Grantham on on Invest Like the Best from the summer. Makes walking the dog more educational!
I agree with most of that. Bull markets climb a wall of worry though. And while i think US valuations are silly, in the end, we've never had to deal with such a clearly overpriced bond market before. When the risk free return is zero, it undermines a lot of thinking about how to value shares. I'll answer the spread bet point below.
I measure it quite simply as the difference between when I started and now, adjusted for anything I've withdrawn (which is where it gets tricky). So on 23 December my balance was something like (and I'm making this up but it is proportionally correct) £5,300, and on Friday it was £8,300, and I'd also taken £1,000 out between then, so I do it simply as 9.3/5.3 to make around an 80% gain.
There's been quite a lot of trading in and out of things like POW and ECR, but the biggest winners have been CPX, EML and PXC. Obvs with the margin, a 20/25% gain in the underlying can lead to a 100% gain in the value of your account. Which is nice!
With my SB account though, I find it stressful and time consuming (but I love it!) so I won't let it get beyond a certain amount that I feel comfortable with. Any excess I withdraw. What the market gives it can just as quickly takeaway.
Thanks Donald. That's roughly what I do, although I'm only using leverage of 1.25:1 at present. My real return is 7% so far in the first week of trading this year, but 28% as measured against the margin: largely thanks to TSLA and ICLN. My New Year's resolution was to start a spread sheet so I have precise figures at the start of each trading day.
Strangely I don't find spread betting stressful (although I probably will when I start making heavy losses...) but as you say, it is indeed time consuming and totally absorbing.
Friend of mine is a co owner of the Canadian mining company First Quantum. Has been advising me to buy for quite sometime but have never quite got round to it !! Certainly a quality company operating in Zambia and elsewhere .
Bearing in mind your comments of the prospects fro copper perhaps I am not too late to invest? Wonder if you have looked at this company ?
Thanks Donald + Dave - another fascinating conversation. I like the wide-ranging agenda.
My Flyer feed has just alerted me to this https://www.flyer.co.uk/drone-...
It sounds a sensible baby-step application of drone delivery. I'll take a look at the drone company you mentioned.
Thanks for feedback, £UAVS is the one but its very volatile. Announced a multi-year deal from a state in the US to monitor cannabis crops, different world over there, drones and dope!
Thanks to the creators of this Blog. Haven't as yet listened to the podcast but plan on doing so over the weekend.
Re $UAVS, yes I was able to scalp this a few times when notified to me at < $3. Although its now approaching full valuation (according to some US groups I subscribe to) and next one with a promising chart set up/ undervalued is $RCAT. Albeit only listed on the OTC market and so not available on IG.com. Have opened up a Firstrade account when looks seems to be a good range of OTC stocks available too.
Thanks again, and look forward to listening to the podcast soon.
Spl183
@Donald & Dave
Listened to a couple of your podcasts yesterday, and the content was quality; well articulated opinion, a great balance between broad content and depth of discussion for each stock/ sector discussed. Well done Gents, on great quality content ! Not listened to a huge number of investing podcasts, but definitely prefer it to the Investors' Chronicle and AJ Bell ones, which can be 'waffly' as well as unnecessary sales pitches/ teasers to buy the weekly edition being discussed.
I have recently focused more on US stocks so great that you cover both markets ! Re SB activity, I did a couple gutsy trades; going long on BTC at 20 p a point / ETH at £1 a point, the day before the UK derivatives ban kicked in. Hoping to ride the choppy wave which ends up (hopefully) with BTC in six-figure territory by year-end. Occasionally scalp some US stocks based on charting set ups (mainly descending wedges). E.g. recent trades were $LMND, $W, $OSTK, & $RIDE & $CCIV.
Will certainly look more into other names you both mentioned, that haven't come across my radar (quite a few ...).
Keep the good work - will definitely be listening in regularly.
Best,
Spl183
I was wondering if Dave was still holding $PLTR, it had an interesting day on Friday, up about 12% at one time but finished up only about 2.7%, not sure why there was such price movements. Could not see any news.
I suppose this weeks blog is snowed off?
Sorry to hear that you're calling it a day as far as the podcasts are concerned.
Another "red tape" casualty.
Totally agree! Very sad that it's had to end but really appreciated all the information gained and the views aired. The contrast in the two trading styles was interesting. I hope 'compliance issues' wasn't the cause - but agree Bailey was as useful as a chocolate fireguard at the FCA, witness all the mini-bond scandals now coming to light (and speaking as a minor Dolphin victim).
Episode 14 struck a good balance. Thoughts on risk management were good. I still harbour doubts on Surface Transforms (LON:SCE) - full marks to them for persevering since the dot com days (when I was briefly invested) and I recall in those days they wanted to attack the aerospace market; given the current downturn perhaps it's no bad thing they've focused on auto. Arguably it's been a case study in how bright-eyed UK start-ups totally underestimate the hurdles and delays in gaining acceptance by the major clients. Possibly it was only when Brembo started to win over manufacturers that the concept started to be taken seriously. But I still feel the market for sub-10 second 0-200 kph vehicles that can justify CCBs is perilously thin - maybe the added weight of electrification will help the business case; I just don't know.
Your mention of Verici Dx (LON:VRCI) was also helpful - it set me looking at their presentations which was useful as I'm contemplating a seed investment in a new cancer diagnostic.
One question (primarily for Dave I suppose): what are your favourite sources of commentary on US small caps? I find SeekingAlpha shouty and unbalanced. I know there are respected commentators on specific sectors ( eg Jamin Ball for SaaS businesses) but these seem hard for UK people to track down and I'd like to find some more generalist sources.
Anyway - best wishes to the two of you in your trading endeavours!
Thanks for all the kind words folks, the podcasts were really getting popular and the feedback very positive. Unfortunately Dave and I juggle a few things and one of them wasn't happen with the perceived regulatory risk of having a connection with the podcast.
FWIW, that is my general problem with regulation: there are 3 types of people - those who don't care, those who are caught and try to comply, and those who shouldn't be caught but worry that they might be. I think our issue is with the third group but they are entitled to choose their own risk tolerance and ask us to like it or lump it.
In my experience regulation focusses on the middle group only, the third group make life difficult for themselves and the first group, who are the ones that cause all the risks, get off scot free.
Oh well, off my hobby horse. I was pleased that people liked the podcasts and if things change Dave and i will return as I feel we were just getting into our stride.
Wilbrahim, are you on twitter? If so, the easiest thing will be to ask Dave directly. I think he has a stocko account but I don't know if he uses the discussion board.
I have enjoyed your podcasts, and I am sorry to hear that you will no longer continue with them.
Twitter is good. I follow you and Dave so I keep up with what your doing, although it's not quite the same as listening to your cheery voices.
Like the others, really sorry to hear your podcasts are no more. Its good to hear a different perspective
