Gold and Precious Metal Thread?
I was wondering if it might be useful to create a Gold and Precious metal thread – or perhaps just Gold, with other threads following on? I mention this as there were a couple of snippets which looked of interest to discuss, but no obvious place to post…..
There is a report that Roman Abramovich has sold his 40% holding in Highland Gold at 300p per share with some thoughts that it may lead to an offer to remaining shareholders.
Is anyone following the situation at Petropavlovsk? It seems that small shareholders are mounting some co-ordinated effort against the board to try and stop what is seen as back door control of the company. It’s not clear if this will succeed.
I hold a modest amount of Highland but recently sold out of POG as I had some memories of the Maxwell years, when unquoted companies in obscure parts of the world had control of publicaly quoted companies. It generally didn’t end well for other shareholders.
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294 comments
The Russian ruble is now freely strengthening versus the US dollar.
The Bank of Russia is now a buyer of gold at 5000 rubles to the gram, or 155,500 rubles to the troy ounce. At a Friday March 25th closing price of RUB96.62 vs. the USD that implies a gold price of $1610 per ounce.
1: At $1550 per ounce the first order effect here is that is implies a RUB/USD rate of around 75. Incentivizing those holding RUB to continue and those needing them to bid up the price from current levels.
Source
I'd love to be able to understand this...
The key point I take from it is that the rouble just became pegged to gold. A gold peg hasn’t existed for a Fiat currency since 1971 when Nixon removed the USD from its gold standard.
The sanctions also mean that ‘unfriendly’ nations now require to purchase Russian gas using gold, not USD or EURO’s…. creating significant buying pressure for bullion.
The opening salvo in the death of the USD as global reserve currency!
https://renaissancemen.org/202...
Time to don the tin foil hats? :-)
Sorry to still be thick - does this mean gold will rise in value for the likes of me who own some or fall?
TL/DR answer is Yes, the price of gold is likely to rise.
The oil price (in gold) according to Russia, is the missing piece of information just now…
This might make it easier to understand..,
https://3circleinvestments.sub...
Yes, thank you.
Excellent article. Thanks for posting Forbsy!
Hmm... I'm not entirely sure the Russians can undercut their "partners" in Opec as the article suggests they might. If they set the price of their oil any lower than the Opec controlled price, in whatever commodity/currency that has a value translatable back to $ that's bound to prove a reaction from the cartel?
Like ramping their production so that the world can ignore this gold for oil barter?
If they float or set the conversion at a similar to current price (effectively the $ to gold rate) then the arb opportunity is not there and sure we might see some pressure on gold as it's used (again) as a medium of exchange for this trade. Fascinating to watch and I guess, yes, a predictable consequence of the foreign reserves being taken off the table.
Could OPEC members not just participate in any arbitrage trade available via Chinese oil futures?
https://amp.ft.com/content/877b3676-5236-4d90-bfbc-b0683faa5af8
https://www.orientfutures.com.sg/post-detail/China-Futures-INE-Crude
Forbsy: Yes exactly. Good explanation.
Teamwork makes the dream work @Alphaflight
PS: Hope you topped up your initial Polymetal International (LON:POLY) buy at the lows :-)
Haha yes I like it!
I did indeed regarding polymetal and also JRS & Evraz. I'll continue to hold, these are world class companies in my opinion - Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy:-)
Anyway, if the UK government eventually de facto expropriate said stocks, then that would clearly send out a dangerous signal to foreign investors to not to trust the LSE. Aside from that, most people seem to have forgiven the Germans, Japanese, etc post WW2.
This is worth watching too: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jEO83...
Once again it won’t post the link. Please sort out stockopedia. Search on YouTube for Jack Corsellis and Gold to $10000.
here is the link: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKsVrO...
This is worth watching.
I too believe that the gold miners are set to have a good run. With inflation and interest rates rising and the current situation in Ukraine the conditions look ideal for the the gold price to rise which means more profit for the miners.
I bought into Centamin (CEY) and Pan African Resources (PAF) in December last year and both are doing well They both have mines in production and are ranked high with the Stockopedia computers.
Thanks for the reviving the thread.
How are gold miners affected by energy costs? (apologies if it’s covered in the video link that was posted, I’ve not had a chance to watch it).
Gold miners obviously don't like rising input costs (e.g. oil). Nevertheless, gold miners have never been this cheap in decades, look at their free cash flow Vs other sectors in the economy and then ask yourself which looks better on paper. Lots of deep value to be found right now even with gold at all time highs.
Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) is also breaking out from long term decline today, I have just added to my existing position.
As part of my old playbook I have also re-established a position in Starvest (LON:SVE) as a leveraged play on Greatland Gold (LON:GGP)
Stocko has a different spin :) - as in bargepole me no touch
Your dismissive tone shows a complete lack of understanding.
The inability of Stockopedia’s algorithms to assess mining exploration companies is well documented.
I suggest you DYOR when assessing these companies and ignore the QV stock rankings, the important factor is the rising M.
Forbsy,
You are indeed right about the Stockopedia computers inability to assess some mining companies. If the gold miner is still in the feasibility stage or in development then no gold will have been processed hence no profits or organic cashflow will have been generated which is why the Quality and Value factors will be low. This does not necessarily mean that the company is a bad investment it just means it has not yet reached the production stage. Your own research is needed to determine if you think it is worth it and get itself into production. Greatland Gold seems like a good shout from what I've researched so far.
I'm wary of putting more of my cash into Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) shares as it doesn't pay a dividend and as such may take too long for me to make a Capital Gain. On the other hand, a rising tide lifts all boats. I do hold Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) but am more likely to go for Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) or Pan African Resources (LON:PAF) who do pay divis.
Silver
I too have a basket of dividend paying stocks with gold exposure. Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) is for the speculative end of my gold stock portfolio. Kinross, Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) , Franco Nevada , £FRES , are among my main holdings which pay dividends.
Sorry, it won’t let me link the YouTube link.
do a search for David Murrin: Bubble popping will mean metals will soar
well worth watching this:
https://youtu.be/FyBTCcKvlFQ
Link to the video mentioned by gmtrader
Cheers Forsby
Forbsy. Dam predictive. :)
Good video, thanks for posting
Interesting video. Some of the extrapolations are long shots presented with too much certainty. But it makes you think.
If WW3 is in 2025 then it doesn't really matter what you invest in!
But assuming there is a future then I cant argue that gold and commodities are set to rise (along with inflation). I'm in process of switching my portfolio. I do think the World has changed.
With gold touchingt all-time highs today, I thought I would reactivate this old thread. BTW I’m noticing that some of the small LSE gold miners haven’t moved much (e.g. Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM), Serabi Gold (LON:SRB), Shanta Gold (LON:SHG)). My guess is that they will start to move fairly soon…
Completely agree with you Alphaflight. I was buying Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) fairly heavily around the 8p region. I’ve also, last week, opened positions in my spread account on Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) & Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM)
They all look undervalued to me right now in a world with Gold > $2061/oz.
Duplicate .
I’m starting to feel bullish on gold miners again so thought I’d resurrect this thread!
Anyone getting that feeling that they are collectively bottoming?
I like the gold miners (particularly Canadian Junior and Explorers) quite a lot, and believe that long-term there is a chunk of upside however I have two short-term concerns:
1) Capital flight from China, and
2) Passive investment vehicles such as Blackrock/Vanguard etc.
Regarding 1), I am pretty bearish on the fate of Evergrande and $300bn of loans that they will not repay in full, which in turn means a system shock to the Chinese economy that could be contagious given the ludicrous levels of indebtedness in the country. I suspect there may be large flows of capital (and subsequent capital controls) from China to safe haven jurisdictions particularly the US, which will strengthen the dollar and lower gold bullion. I think this will be temporary but will be amply sufficient to offset panic buying of gold within China itself (before the CCP bans gold buying).
Regarding 2), N.American gold miners are widely owned by passive investment vehicles (in small amounts admittedly). This means that when any correction occurs and money stops arriving into these monstrous passive funds the gold miners will jag down like everything else, before eventually rebounding. I suspect there may be a fair warning period measured in days when gold mining stocks can be hoovered up for less than they are trading at now.
My opinion for what it's worth would be to buy v.slowly, and in my case to thin positions for the next couple of quarters.
Of course if bullion cruises through $1950 then ignore all above and pile in but I'm not holding my breath.
Interesting points you’ve raised there, thanks as I’d missed the Evergrande story. What do you think the effect of a bail out by the CCP would have? Could gold find a bid as a perceived safe haven?
I currently have a pretty decent holding in $FNV and Solgold (LON:SOLG) but was looking to add some more gold exposure via pure miners again.
Likely I’ll start to add some of the larger players again soon.
Gold spot price looking interesting today on the 4h timeframes. Possible signs of a reversal with rsi divergence vs price showing up. I’ve opened a few spread bets on gold miners and may look to add to my stock positions if I see signs of follow through on the spot price.
Would be interested in any others thoughts on the current situation with the gold price, I feel as long as we can stay north of $1750 it is still a good time to accumulate positions.
PS. Hope you’re feeling better Macro.
I have been innactive on this thread due to illness, sorry.
Really I think for Gold it is all currently about the steepening of the yield curve: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
The broad market commentators on Gold that I trust to get the big picture right are Hedgeye. Their view is that in Quad 2 (Growth and Inflation increasing) there are better asset classes to hold than Gold. But, Gold commentators that I trust (Adam Hamilton, Louis James) take a longer view and seek to build positions over time at lows.
I still hold my core positions: GDX, GDXJ, SIL . But these only add up to 5.5%. So I can go longer and bigger. Hedgeye tells me not yet. Adam Hamilton and Loius James say build slowly - and maximise profit taking in the next upleg.
M.
How many of you are still holding on to your precious metals and gold miners.
It feels like we are sitting on a resitance line for gold and the few gold miners I looked at, certainly a lot of profits have been given back. I think next week, depending which way gold moves and I'll decide if I'm bullish or bearish.
I was wondering how others were currently feeling?
I’ve traded in and out of my gold miners off the gold price movements tbh. Still holding quite a few for gold/copper and general mining exposure but sitting on decent profits banked & paper for all so trades are significantly derisked. I currently hold: Northisle Copper&Gold TSX:NCX, Solgold (LON:SOLG), Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) , Phoenix Copper (LON:PXC) & Bluejay Mining (LON:JAY) and intend to maintain these positions over the longer term. Currently, I’m about 30% cash just now as I’m keeping an eye out, looking to retake some positions in the US/Canadian gold mining majors and Franco Nevada.
Also interested in what others are doing in the space?
Forbsy.
Sold my silver shares recently thanks to uplift in prices, still holding my gold, copper and platinum shares apart from sold Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP). So hold Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP), Tharisa (LON:THS), Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ), Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML), Centamin (LON:CEY), Polymetal International (LON:POLY) and Serabi Gold (LON:SRB). May top up Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) if price drops some more.
I’ve actually just added some CEY and FNV as the charts look good and both look too cheap imo just now. Spot gold price could be turning atm also... but could just be a bounce too.
Am anticipating an increase in gold over the next couple of months and for the rest of the year, but regretting I didn't trade in/out as things dropped. I did trade out of silver on Monday as the price spiked, but wish I had also sold the other half (need the funds for some other areas).
PGM holdings in Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) Tharisa (LON:THS) & Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP) - most conviction in Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) & Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP) so will likely trim the Tharisa (LON:THS) in order to create some cash for other holdings. These have done me very nicely, but still see a lot more upside this year (possibly 50-75% more).
Very small holding in Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) (almost not worth having) but recently bought into AEX Gold (doesn't like the £symbol on this one) and also a Canadian Miner "Minera Alamos". Also medium size holdings in Kefi Gold And Copper (LON:KEFI) and £AUU (Ariana), both of which should do well if the price rises and also Blackrock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM)
Big holdings in GDXJ which I am hopeful for along with £GPM.
Last time I checked I was approx 15% gold & 15% PGM's/others which I am very comfortable with. Got my eye on a US miner as well (Orezone) but waiting for the right price.
Sold out of Centamin (LON:CEY) after their bad news and major SP drop - not enough confidence yet to go back there.
Kirkland Lake seem to have a very good reputation as a company, and have the advantage of a relatively low All In Sustaining Cost (AISC) OF $886. For comparison the average AISC of the Top 25 holdings of the GDX ETF is $1028. The same figure for the mid-cap Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is $985. So, even if the Gold price stays level Kirkland Lake will enjoy good profit margins. Kirkland Lake have the advantage of mines in friendly jurisdictions (USA, Canada, Australia, Mexico) which might matter if some emerging market governments start to nationalise mines to pay for COVID-19.
It really comes down to your view on holding stocks that are in a trading range, If you dont mind holding a Gold Miner while Gold consolidates for 3m-6m, and perhaps accumulate a position over time, then that's fine. If you are after quick returns then there are other Industrial Metals miners who look to be in strong uptrends now.
Some might say there is a place for both participating in strong trends, _and_ buying quality at the bottom of a consolidation channel.
M.
Like the idea of specialised threads in general so well done for starting this. I'm not big on gold though I've held a few miners in my time for insurance purposes. I've held LON:POG in the past and lost heavily. Traded my way to a modest profit with ABX.TO (formerly Acacia). My big lesson has been to avoid mines in second and third world countries - the Acacia story in Tanzania springs to mind here. My current and recent favourite is Kirkland (US:KL ?) which has mines in Canada and looks reasonably valued. Would appreciate any thoughts on KL if you have any.
What is going on with Gold and Gold Miners?
The Yield Curve steepened significantly last week: See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
So although interest rates remain low at the short end of the duration spectrum further out in duration the market is demanding more yield. Not much (~1%) in historic terms, but the rate of change is high. Although many expect QE to continue to hold money market rates down some time (until inflation increases beyond +2% pa for some time) the question is now whether the Federal Reserve will attempt to control the yield curve further out in time - so called 'Yield Curve Control'. Gold and Gold Miners seem to have taken fright at the prospect of a 'bear steepener' as might corporates with high financing needs.
Hedgeye point towards better peforming asset classess in the meantime:
In the meantime Gold specialists such as Adam Hamilton (Zeal - http://www.zealllc.com/essays....) and Louis James (aka Lobo Tiggre - https://independentspeculator....) are essentially saying that the worst of the Gold correction is over; don't be spooked out of your Gold positions; accumulate at the bottom of the channel.
M.
I liked your idea of a gold and precious metals thread, sad to see it hasn't been that popular. You mused that holders of Highland Gold might lead to an offer and so you have been proved right. A holder myself, I made a nice profit and continued to invest in gold miners. The ones I like best are the ones who are actually getting the stuff out of the ground and thus may pay a dividend. I like dividends as they enable me, who is fully invested, to buy into whichever gold miner/explorer appeals to me. I'm amused by the Best Ideas 2021 forum initiated by davidjhill in that he declares: "Rule 3 : No Resource stocks (I have nothing against them and own a number myself but I don't want this idea to be swept up in speculative and volatile type stocks).", because so many of the stocks I hold are not resource stocks but all the same have let me down. Whereas the gold and precious miners I invested in, just when the former were going belly-up, have flourished. Alongside of my portfolio I am running a virtual portfolio, began with 20 stocks at 500 pounds invested per stock on the 22nd of February this year. Last month i added 7, making it 26 after losing the Highland Gold. At present, for an outlay of virtual 13,008 pounds the current gain stands at 9485 pounds plus some virtual dividends. Of the 26, just 6 are below water, could surface any day. Now this is not to be sneezed at and don't I ever wish I had put my little project into practice.
Being so close to the start of a new calendar year many market commentators are offering their thoughts.
Over at Stockcharts father and daughter team Carl & Erin Swenlin (Decision Point; www.decisionpoint.com ) offer up sound technical analysis - they were joint winners of the Market Timer Digest award a few years back - See link for most recent copy of the Jornalhttps://timerdigest.com/pubs/i...). While neither of them would claim to be Gold specialists they do have impecable long terms charts: https://stockcharts.com/articl... . And usefully show how to use the Premium / Discount on a closed end Gold Fund (the Sprott Physical Gold Trust - PHYS ) as a Sentiment Indicator.
- Carl's conclusion: "Gold is going through a corrective phase to relieve the tension of a near-vertical price advance. A new rising trend is evident on the daily chart, but the rising wedge promises some amount of grief as part of the transition from a correction to a new leg up."
Meanwhile over at Zeal Adam Hamilton - who is a Gold specialist - offers up his thoughts on the new Gold upleg: http://www.zealllc.com/2020/nw... .
- Adam's conclusion on Gold: "So is a new gold-stock upleg really getting underway? It certainly appears so. GDX has been marching higher on balance since late November, with higher lows and highs in the several weeks since forming a nascent uptrend. Before that GDX fell 25% over several months, which should be plenty to rebalance away the greedy sentiment and overbought technicals from early August’s upleg topping. That’s all gone."
Many commentators have offered positive views on Silver - suggesting that the combination of industrial uses and monetary metal give it an advantage over Gold. Normally Gold would lead Silver into a new uptrend, and Majors would lead Minors - not so this time? Adam's Silver commentary from Chrismas Eve is here: http://www.zealllc.com/2020/sl...
Hedgeye continue to suggest that their model shows a Global Quad 2 (Rising Growth, Rising Inflation) in 2021 Quarter 1 and Quarter 2, and that in that mode there will be better performing asset allocations than Gold and/or Gold Miners: namely Momentum and Growth factors; Technology, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary as Sectors; and mercantile exporting nations such as South Korea, Japan, China etc. Their suggestion for those not already positioned as above is to Buy-the-Dip and increase exposure slowly over time.
I offer my precious metals RRG (versus the US Dollar as a Benchmark), below:
Well done to all those positioned currently in Platiunum Group Metals (PGM) stocks such as: Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP) , Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) , $SBSW ; and in Nickel producers such as Gmk Noril'skiy Nikel' Pao (LON:MNOD) and Copper producers - the COPX ETF for instance. Essentially the areas with strong industrial usage. Note that there are no stocks in the Improving quadrant, as yet.
If you look at the same chart for the GDIG ETF then this shows Gold within the context of General Miners:
Essentially all the Industrial Metals miners in the Leading Quadrant, and all the Gold miners in the lagging Quadrant.
Happy New Year when it comes!
M.
I don't place emphasis on short term stuff, however....
I believe the positive performance of gold in last two days as Bitcoin spiked massively is probably a very bullish turn of events. Bitcoin had been casting shade on gold and seemed to be an extra irritant negative influence during recent gold bearishness.
End of year and into Q1 is setting up interestingly. Quite a lot of strong cash flows to come through in gold miners generally and its not very recognised (partly as they are seen as just leverage on gold price and partly as covid disrupted sentiment and interims for many)
Cash generation (with ongoing capital discipline) meets gold price firming again meets an ongoing rotation in to value-ish stocks => formula for gold miners to attract interest as stocks rather than gold leverage chips
Yes indeed. In 10 years time, if you look at a Gold chart, the recent price changes won't even be noticeable. The long term trend is up I imagine. As you alluded to, the gold miners are minting money right now (and they look cheap too).
Note I "mined" a few Bitcoins around 2008. When I say a few ,it was 30 or 40 (or possibly more but under 100). Anyway I discarded them because I needed the Linux Server I was using for something else. Not one of my wisest decisions:-(
Anyway I no longer own any Bitcoin. Tulips were of course a great investment and store of value too, FOMO is a powerful driver however.
One of the key things to understand about Bitcoin is their 21 million limited supply claim. This would be true if people were only trading full coins, but now, people buy a fraction of a Bitcoin. That makes a mockery of the limited supply argument. At the moment, there is enough bitcoin for everyone on the planet to have 0.003 each or circa $70. Additional decimal places could just be added over time, fractions of a fraction of a satoshi etc.
Commiserations on your loss! I owned some in the low 1000s, maybe high 100s as I was in tech startup space at the time in Berlin and it was what the cool kids were doing.
I expect Bitcoin to go higher still from here, perhaps a load. I'm not smart enough to play!
I've researched asset management businesses and hedge funds professionally in the past. I'm 100% convinced that the majority now playing BTC see it as an early-ish stage speculation with great potential to play greater fool game....and partly a reflection of anxiety about the valuation of other assets (bonds and US stocks).
I think there is a perspective problem with Bitcoin. I think its half-gold in that it shares its duration type pricing effect in disinflationary environment (ie nominal rates are low and real rates too) but I don't think it will be attractive in a more inflationary environment as it has no credentials as store of wealth.....BTC is just cyber decreed fiat.
I realise the above point is emotional rather than objective...but being a non state store of value is. BTC will have one moment to prove itself when/if inflation comes...if it slips then for whatever reason its toast
Hi mojomogoz,
Haha thank you. Fortunately my memory is so bad that I can’t remember exactly how many coins I had mined, definitely under 100 though. Wow you must be kicking yourself too; I guess 1000 BTC just now is worth around $23,000,000.
I agreed, I too expect BTC to go higher but I won’t be “investing”. If all of the central banks dump their gold reserves and replace it all with Bitcoin then sure I’ll buy some BTC – this will never happen of course!
I started life of as a mathematician but have a degree in physics and master’s degree in finance. From a mathematics point of view there is nothing particularly interesting about BitCoin (for me anyway). I’ve got the source code and have looked through chunks of it also.
Yes I agree with your analysis. Bitcoin looks like the greater fool theory in real time. It ends up being a trader's market, where the sharp insiders unload their hyped "assets" to the unsuspecting kids who are taken in.
Moreover, once "Fedcoin" is released and other national currencies get their electronic version (CBDCs), the cache and demand for Bitcoin will drop, because of the competition, and the fact that you can buy dinner with "Fedcoin" or "E-Yuan". Try that with Bitcoin and watch your dinner fluctuate wildly in price over the course of the meal:-)
Empirical data tells us that Gold is an excellent inflation hedge. Gold has taken the role of the fixed income (bonds). i.e. a defence against weakness in equities. A classic CAPM with the 60/40 portfolio design no longer functions as gov bonds are no longer performing their historic role in a portfolio. I’d argue that you could go 40% gold in a portfolio now (i.e. replacing the bond component with gold / gold miners and royalties).
Since 2008, equities & bonds have frequently moved together rather than moving in the opposite direction. When equities are weak, gold tends to go up. When equities are strong gold can do anything of course. Gold is a good protector of long term inflation. Counter intuitively, during deflation, gold loses value less quickly than other assets. Gold doesn't like a gradual reduction in the inflation rate however.
My expectation is that when the proverbial hits the fan and inflation takes off, the big “money” will rapidly flow into gold, not Bitcoin or indeed any of the other 10,000+ cryptocurrencies out there.
-Alphaflight
Yes. I confess having traded small amounts of BTC for momentum driven profits.
Interesting, I researched BTC somewhat and noticed the total amount of coins is capped. But, new entries to the blockchain require verification from miners, who are paid in BTC for their efforts. If the supply of BTC stops then miners cease and the whole thing suddenly collapses to zero. Really zero. So the supply cap will have to be lifted, thus the amount is not constrained at all.
At least with Gold, as long as you bought the real thing, it doesn't require further verification to maintain its existence or allow you to sell it onto someone else.
The other thing is the lengthy time required to verify transactions. Not useful as a medium for transactions. Store of value, ok. Thus proponents now call BTC digital gold not anti-fiat anymore.
Suspect BTC has further to run as new money arrives. Paypal loading it onto their network. Greyscale growing. Media buzz. People are buying BTC with no clue what it is, just buy bc it's going up.
So worth trading on the momentum side, but wouldn't load my life savings into it, as no idea when the trapdoor will be sprung. You really need a chair sitting right by the exit.
I think (and correct me if I'm wrong) that currently the maximum fractional amount of a BTC goes to 8 decimal places so at least a possible 21x10^(6+8) = 21x10^14 fractional amounts (satoshis I believe they are called). The decimal places could keep on increasing of course...
Yes just look at the Tulipmania price chart, or John Law's South Sea scam in France to get an idea of what FOMO pricing curves look like. It looks like a side view of the Matterhorn. Even smart people get sucked into these FOMO bubbles of course (e.g. Sir Isaac Newton famously lost a chunk of his fortune on the the South Sea Company bubble of 1720 etc).
Yes, eight dp so it can be subdivided a lot.
But, the miners need to be paid in BTC which gets converts back to fiat to pay electric bills etc. So further subdivision to pay them only works if the BTC price rises in proportion to the division. So without an ever increasing price, the participation of the miners could fold. It's an interesting end-game, when I mention it to BTC holders it's not on their rader. An amazing inflection point really, as without the miners the blockchain updates won't be verified then it all goes to zero, instantly.
Thanks, this is a brilliant point to make:
“So without an ever increasing price, the participation of the miners could fold...”
There are a handful of other risks too I believe.
The trick with manias is to know when you are in one of course.
But you can run a Bitcoin node to verify transactions without being a miner and you don't then have the 'proof of work' cost.
I agree that the increasing complexity and reducing output of bitcoin mining over time does lend itself to an increasing price but I don't think the merry-go-round just automatically stops when the last bitcoin is dug out. It will continue so long as people are willing to trade with it.
I'll be hanging on to my Argo Blockchain (LON:ARB) for now but will likely 50% top slice at some point.
just wanted to follow up on this as my first understanding was wrong.
you need to be a miner to verify transactions, running a node isn't enough
The expectation is that as the number of coined being mined drops the fees for verifying transactions will increase and continue after the last coin
https://www.investopedia.com/t...
Source URL
Recently Gold has reversed its traditional negative correlation with the $USD.
... How is that getting along??? ... Gold heading in the 'right' direction. Now bang-on the zero line!
... And (Large) Gold Miners??? ... Gold Miners heading in the 'right' direction.
... And (Mid Cap) Gold Miners??? And also Mid Cap Gold Miners.
... And Silver??? And Silver, too.
... And (Large) Silver Miners ??? Silver Miners even more pronounced than Silver.
... And Copper??? Reliably negatively correlated.
... And Copper Miners??? Very reliably negatively correlated.
... And Palladium??? Moving in the 'wrong' direction.
... And Platium? Still ok.
... And Rhodium??? Still ok-ish.
... And Nickel??? Still very much ok.
Copper, Copper Miners, Nickel, Platinum still look set fair. Maybe Rhodium , too.
But, Palladium looks like it might be going the 'wrong' way.
Gold, Silver and their Miners look like they might be heading in the 'right' way - at least in terms of their traditional relationship with the $USD. And if that holds then at least one complication in trying to guess the direction of the Gold/Silver/Miners will be removed.
M.
FTSE 100, since 1990 priced in Gold:
Source: http://pricedingold.com/britis...
Adam Hamilton (Zeal) has provided another of his commentaries on the Gold price retraction: Gold-Stock Correction Matures - http://www.zealllc.com/2020/gd...
He has also updated his chart of fair value for GDX (miners) versus Gold (bullion).
My own attempts at re-creating this chart on Stockcharts served to tell me how difficult it is to place the channel Adam has drawn. Nevertheless, from Adam's commentary:
" Just like upleg toppings, exact correction bottomings are impossible to discern in real-time. Gold stocks could definitely still head even lower extending GDX’s correction. Or they could grind sideways consolidating low. But after a 24.9% selloff over 3.6 months forcing this gold-stock benchmark well under its 200dma and killing greed, odds are the great majority of downside risk is behind us. Upside potential outweighs it.
The prudent way to game a probable correction bottoming is to gradually redeploy your capital over time in fundamentally-superior gold stocks. The idea is to add new trades straddling the likely actual absolute low. The earlier ones could grind lower before the next upleg really starts, while the later ones could get added after it is underway. But layering in new trades over time lowers risks and ups odds of catching a bottom."
Meanwhile over at Hedgeye.com they point out that Gold has lost its negative correlation with the $USD. See their daily updates on their Youtube channel for their latest thoughts on the matter. Last time I check they had sold Gold and Gold Miners and were looking forward to Q1 and Q2 2021 in what they call "Global Quad 2 - which is 'bad' for Gold relatively speaking (against other asset classes which they prefer in such a situation). The correlation with the $USD (through the Dollar ETF UUP) is shown below:
Essentially the correlation flipped positive 19th November - so adding a further element of confusion. The trend is falling so perhaps normal service will be resumed soon? Of course whether that has an linkage to a $Gold uplift is anyone's guess. In the meantime Copper and Copper Miners (COPX) continues to do well. Nickel (JJN ETF) is also doing well, and Gmk Noril'skiy Nikel' Pao (LON:MNOD) as a geared play on that too (although not Amur Minerals (LON:AMC) ). Platinum has done better than Rhodium, and Rhodium better than Palladium.
Relative Rotation Graph for GDX says Newmont (NEW) and Franco Nevada (FNV) are showing as 'Improving'. Within GDXJ the strong ones are Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), Eldorado (EGO) and Novagold (NG). Within SIL the strongest are Coeur Mining (CDE) and MAG Silver (MAG). Adam Hamilton's commentary on the Silver miners with the most exposure to Silver are worth re-posting:
"Last quarter a relatively-high three silver miners out of the SIL top 15 qualified as primary ones deriving over half their sales from the white metal. They were First Majestic Silver at 61.2% (FR), Fortuna Silver Mines at 62.2% (FVI), and Silvercorp Metals at 75.2% (SVM). These remain the most-leveraged stocks to silver uplegs, with the best potential to amplify their gains.
Time to get ready? ... Or not quite yet???
M.
I’ve been watching spot gold price carefully over past few weeks. The base appears to be around 1825-1830 even in inter day trading right now. That could obviously change but doesn’t appear likely (especially with ecb likely to announce extension of buying programme). More interesting is the price of the miners - they are less and less aligned with the price - my guess is that means money is discounting the risk of a further fall in gold price (or else at current prices they represent a good buy at current gold prices on future earnings). It’s an interesting puzzle.
Right now, I think everyone is waiting for next fiscal stimulus package in US. Talk is it will be agreed Pre-Xmas and no-one wants to be caught shorting at that point. Of course, who knows what is in that package? It could disappoint versus expectations and cause a fall even if it comes.
In this kind of waiting situation, it’s perfect for swing trading. So for past few weeks, I’ve been buying when my favorite gold stock hits the bottom of its range and selling at top. There are loads of choices out there for this but use the larger of your preferred basket to cut trading fees. Never short though when risk of jump is so high. You run the risk of missing the “big”bump with this but it’s very profitable.
It seems that the physical price and paper prices (spot & futures) tend to diverge as VIX increases. The spot price is set in London and the futures price is set in NY via COMEX. These prices are essentially rigged by the bullion banks, we see this when they move the market via naked shorts to drive the prices down; not at all dissimilar to the plunge protection team.
I witnessed this divergence first hand in March when I was buying physical gold (1kg bars) to vault, they were unavailable and had a 3 week waiting list (I've been buying gold for over a decade and never seen this occur).
So perhaps the gold miners are now behaving more like the physical gold prices i.e. disconnecting from the paper gold prices...
Russia and China are now holding so much physical gold that I wonder if COMEX can keep moving the paper price like this anyway, market participants are now taking physical delivery on COMEX which of course that market was not designed for. By the way, this is a good resource for what is going on in the PM space: https://www.goldmoney.com/rese...
...and this is great for the gold/silver miners: https://www.kitco.com/news/
-Alphaflight
Does anyone have any suggestions on where best to buy bitcoin? Coinbase seems to have terrible reviews/cust Services , if something goes wrong?
Rather than buy BitCoin, you can easily create your own forked version of Bitcoin (100% identical source code to Bitcoin) here:
https://dev.cryptolife.net/order/custom-altcoin/
You just need the marketing drive with the obligatory shiny gold coin with a pseudo-dollar symbol and a fake circuit diagram.
I use Binance for this purpose.
A couple of breadth indicators:
1. The Percentage of Gold Miners Stocks above their 200 Day Exponential Moving Average
2. The Percentage of Gold Miners Stocks above their 20 Day Exponential Moving Average
... I am still not (quite) convinced! Surely for it to be net bullish >> 50% have to be in long and short term positive trends?
M.
Hi Marco,
Gold is competing with Return Free Risk (Jim Graham). Plenty of smart money has or is moving into gold. You just have to sit tight and try not to panic on the big retracements.
"Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller’s family office bought gold making it the largest position in his family office trust."
https://www.indigopreciousmeta...
Note: Stan Druckenmiller's average annual rate of return over the last 30 years has been better than Warren Buffet's. He is still considered the most successful trader of all time I believe.
By the way, this interview with Billionaire Thomas Kaplan is superb albeit painfully slow at the start. Some very insightful information here, I highly recommend watching it all (another smart billionaire ultra long gold). A fairly useless piece of info: Druckenmiller and Kaplan both made George Soro very rich in the past at different points in time.
-Alphaflight
Hi Alphaflight,
Yes, I have seen the video (I have a trial [free] subscription to Real Vision).
It is a little different strategy wise investing for a family office - they tend to be very long term (multi-generational), focused on wealth preservation (versus the threat of inflation) and can wait a long time for asymmetric bets to come right. As a poor person in comparison with Druckenmiller I would find it difficult to adopt his family office's approaches!
Gold is confusing at the best of times. But at the present time the Dollar-Gold correlation has flipped from negative to positive. See below from Hedgeye yesterday:
Note that Hedgeye have sold their Gold and Gold Miner positions.
So at present I am still holding (GDX, GDXJ and SIL) - but still waiting for confirmation to buy streamers and select individual miners.
M.
Thanks Marco I'll watch this video tomorrow.
As for crypto currencies...I'm noticing more and more comparisons between bitcoin and gold however this will only make sense to me if and when central banks start buying it, which seems unlikely.
So far, the central banks have expressed an interest in their own digital currencies (FedCoin et al), not bitcoin. It's pretty easy to understand why.They don't control bitcoin. Meanwhile they all continue to hoard gold in their vaults of course...
Picking the bottom of markets is supposed to be a big "no-no" in investing. Indeed some people refer to [market] bottom pickers, unflateringly, as 'proctologists.' Grant Williams is someone who knows his way around the investment world, and his podcasts are very worthwhile: https://ttmygh.podbean.com/
The most recent podcast saw him invite Fred Hickey (The High-Tech Strategist Newsletter; https://twitter.com/htsfhickey ). Fred spoke about the Bullish Percent Index sentiment indicator for Gold Miners. See below & https://school.stockcharts.com...:
... Essentially, Fred was picking "the bottom".
For interest his "picks" within the Gold Miners were: Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE: NEM), Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI, TSX: AGI), Kirkland Lake (NYSE: KL, TSX: KL), Barrick (NYSE: GOLD) NovaGold Resources (NYSE: NG, TSX: NG) and Pan American Silver (Nasdaq: PAAS, TSX: PAAS). Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM, TSX AEM) is the biggest position in his portfolio.
Going back to the most recent post from Adam Hamilton (Zeal) Silver Miners (within the SIL ETF) he did go out of his way to point out the purest silver plays within the ETF: Quote "Last
quarter a relatively-high three silver miners out of the SIL top 15 qualified as primary ones deriving over half their sales from the white metal. They were First Majestic Silver at 61.2%, Fortuna Silver Mines at 62.2%, and Silvercorp Metals at 75.2%. These remain
the most-leveraged stocks to silver uplegs, with the best potential to amplify their gains. Fundamentally-superior stocks far outperform deadweight-laden ETFs!".
Of course it would probably be best to wait for at least a higher low to be confirmed. But, perhaps it may be time to _consider_ limit orders and what selections to favour?
Meanwhile Copper, and Copper Miners (COPX) continues to do rather well.
M.
Adam Hamilton (Zeal) has posted another of his quarterly reviews - this time for the SIL ETF constituents: http://www.zealllc.com/2020/sm... . Note that it has not yet been posted onto the Mining.com web site (... Thanksgiving holiday).
I have placed the Stockranks alongside Adam's usual chart of the miners fundamentals.
Note that Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) has dropped out of the Top 15 holdings in this ETF and so it has dropped out of Adam Hamilton's analysis. I have retained Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) in the RRG, above, for which the benchmark is the Silver price.
I won't bother to show them but if you were to compare the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) for SIL, against say GDX then they look quite different. GDX shows a consistent picture of all constituents weakening or lagging their benchmark. GDXJ is similar to GDX - but with some relative strenght in two stocks (NovaGold and Eldorado Gold). By comparision the RRG for SIL shows some rotation out of Lagging into Improving, and some in Weakening that are attempting a vertical movement towards Leading (incl. Fresnillo (LON:FRES) ).
... That said most people's benchmark is the currency in which the bulk of their expenses fall due in - and not Gold, Silver or indeed Bitcoin. And the bottom line is that prices are still falling. Precious metals investors must still be patient.
More positively the Copper prices continues to rise, and the Copper Miners ETF (COPX) continues to do well as a result.
M.
Adam Hamilton (Zeal) has posted another of his quarterly reviews - this time for the GDXJ ETF constituents: https://www.mining.com/web/gol... & http://www.zealllc.com/2020/gt...
I have put the Stockopedia Ranks onto Adam's table of fundamental performance. Notable departures from the Top 25 constituents - either due to price falls or M&A activity and / or re-classification - include Centamin (LON:CEY) , Fresnillo (LON:FRES) , Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW), Iamgold (IAG) and Regis Resources (RRL). The new entrants include: Zhaojin Mining, Industrias Peñoles & Merdeka Copper Gold. I have left the old constituents in the RRG - the benchmark of which is Gold.
Eldorado Gold (EGO), NovaGold (NG) and Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) stand out for their strength. Centamin (LON:CEY) , of course stands out for the opposite reason.
Overall impression this week was the divergence between the normal counter relationship between £USD and Gold price. With the $USD at the bottom of it's range one might have expected Gold to be at the top of its trading range. Unfortunately not the case. And with a re-bound in the $USD possible (or even probable) Gold bulls may fear further Gold price weakness next week.
Ho hum! Patience is (still) a virtue.
M.
The Royal Mint has setup this "digigold" site.
Note that their fees are very high Vs say GoldMoney , SilverBullion or Baird !
Also note that it is cheaper owning gold via say GoldMoney than a Gold ETF in pretty much all cases.
This event may interest some of you and covers almost every aspect of investing in gold
https://melloevents.com/upcoming-event/mellotuesday-24th-november/
From gold bars through ETFs to the miners & producers
To get 66% off tickets just enter code MTGOLD
Hi carmensfella: Looks interesting thanks. I see Serabi Gold and Yamana Gold will be attending.
Adam Hamilton (Zeal) has posted another of his quarterly reviews - this time for the GDX ETF constituents: https://www.mining.com/web/gol... & http://www.zealllc.com/2020/gm...
I have put the Stockopedia Ranks onto Adam's table of fundamental performance. Also added this time is the Vectorvest master index, VST (Value, Safety, Trend).
Note that Centamin (LON:CEY) has dropped out of the top 25 constituents of this ETF - and so is not covered in Adam's analysis. I have left Centamin (LON:CEY) in the Relative Rotation Graph.
Note that the benchmark used for the RRG is the spot Gold price. As Miners are geared to Gold and Gold has been falling the Miners are all shown as either Weakening or Lagging against Gold. Newmont might be showing some early signs of life? Centamin (LON:CEY) was discussed earlier in this thread as a possible recoovery play for those patient enough to wait for slope stabilisation work at their Sukari mine in Egypt.
The chart of GDX says we are back in the trading range, having bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last move.
Meanwhile in Volatility space, Gold implied volatility $GVZ, has broken downwards to 17.74. The implied volatility on the GDX Gold Miners, $VXGDX is at a low of 39.75. Silver implied vol levels are higher than Gold, of course, but have dropped to 44.2. All positive news for fund flows into these areas. Oil implied vol, $OVX, seems to be at a moment of truth.
I keep telling myself ... patience is a virtue.
M.
Thanks Marco!
Alex,
Regarding Centamin (LON:CEY) they reported geological instability in October that would reduce production until resolved. The text below in italics is extracted from 'Junior Mining Network':
"
As announced on 2 October 2020, movement was detected in a localised area of waste material in the Sukari open pit Stage 4 West wall. The area was identified by the on-site geotechnical team, and early detection enabled a quick response which stabilised the area and therefore safeguarding our workforce and the short to medium term open pit operations.
The localised area of instability is immediately above a higher-grade ore zone and mining scheduled for Q4 and into 2021 was immediately deferred until the area has been rehabilitated.
A comprehensive geotechnical risk assessment is underway to identify the cause and develop a rehabilitation plan. Initial assessment indicates a combination of steep slope angles and the localised presence of groundwater in the West Wall of the pit as contributing factors.
Supported and reviewed by the Company's geotechnical and hydrogeological specialist advisors, the remediation plan includes both the mining of the waste above the area of instability and simultaneously dewatering the area with the use of boreholes. The waste material to be mined is part of the scheduled Stage 5 waste stripping push back and therefore, at no additional cost outside of planned operating costs. Current scheduling indicates that the remediation work will be completed during H1 2021 and the deferred higher-grade Stage 4 West material can be rescheduled into the open pit mine plan in H2 2021 and into 2022. This rescheduling work is being included in the open pit mine plan being developed as part of the LOA.
Due to historical open pit scheduling, there are limited alternative production areas available to be mined. Open pit mining in Q4 and into 2021 will be focussed on the lower grade (0.7-0.9 g/t Au) Stage 5 North area. 2020 production guidance is consequently confirmed at 445,000 to 455,000 ounces. Improving future mining optionality and flexibility is a key focus of the open pit mining planning.
Any shortfall from the open pit will be provided from low-grade surface stockpiles (average grade 0.47g/t Au). The underground operations remain unimpacted by the changes to the open pit mine sequencing.
"
The table below from Vuma Consensus included not just financial numbers but also the company's estimate of All In Sustaining Cost - which has risen substantially as a result from $1,027 to $1,431:
The brokers estimates have fluctuated as shown in the Market Screener graph below:
More optimistically they also show the evolution of target price:
And how the brokers recommendations fluctuated:
Obviously they need to fix the slope instability problems as an AISC of $1431 is not good. Curiously, the high AISC also makes the current share price highly geared to changes in spot Gold price (both good and bad).
So, if you are optimist: you think the Gold price will go up; and you think Centamin (LON:CEY) will fix their operational issues then the share price might go up ... "by a lot" (to paraphrase one D.J. Trump Esquire).
But if you are a pessimist (Gold price going down or range-bound; operational issues intractible) then there are going to be better places for your capital depending on your time-horizon.
Could be one for some small orders placed below and above the current price? One at or below March 2020 lows of 97p?; and one above the last Automatic Reaction rally at 131p?
M.
There are times when one questions oneself!
The Federal Funds Rate is still 0.25% and Chair Powell has said that it will stay that way until Unemployment improves - and that inflation control will not be the driver of interest rates.
The inlfation rate is still postive at ~1.1%
So real interest rates are still negative: 0.25% - 1.1% = -0.85% . We know that negative to low real interest rates are supportive for Gold/Silver/Crypto.
The yield curve is steepening, with the Fed 10 Year minus 2 Year differential now at 0.79% - so the market is predicting / demanding increasing yield further out in time. Suggesting inflation at some point in the future.
Unemployement has reduced to 6.9%, but we know upward spikes are always faster than the slower declines.
And the monetary base has been expanded greatly, with no signs of it contracting.
So, other than the potential for the $USD to rise significantly in reaction to a global risk-off scenario, or indeed some minor short term fluctuations the case for Gold / Silver / Monetary metals (and indeed Bitcoin) would seem to be intact.
Other risks: Single stock risks (e.g. smaller producton single shaft mines); Jurisdiction related risks (e.g. nationalisation of mines), Risk-off across all Risk Assets ...
Conclusion: I guess HODL (Hold on for Dear Life) and be patient?
M.
Good analysis Marco thanks for this.
View this as a buying opportunity and maintain your HODL thesis.
This video outlines what is going on very well:
Centamin (LON:CEY) is looking really cheap, the expected dividend is >7%. I'm thinking of buying more - can anybody dissuade me before I press the buy button?
Go for Northisle instead ;)
I'll investigate it:-)
Let me know what you think!
Hi Forbsy. I didn't have time to look into it properly so I ended up buying more Franco Nevada. With spot gold languishing at around $1866/oz I feel safer taking the lower risk leveraged position. Gold may keep selling off anyway but timing the bottom is impossible and we know that more currency debasement is coming (=stimulus). Note the December Gold price is ~1863, I also bough some December Franco Nevada call options, as they are well out of the money I expect to take a loss on them but worth a small punt I feel.
Hi Alpha, no worries. I've taken a small speculative position to tuck away for the longer term as it ticks all my check boxes for explorers.
I'd be interested in your thoughts wrt the Sprott interest if you come across any mentions.
Def looking to add some Franco-Nevada myself over coming quarter :)
@Macro, superb analysis (as always!), great to read, thanks for posting.
Hi Forbsy, Sprott feels like the safest place to be for me as they are all over the gold space with royalty and streaming deals as well as charging sovereign wealth funds management fees for their services etc. Their PM ETFs and physical metal vaulting is also nice.
35% of my PM equity holding is in Sprott Inc, 25% in Franco Nevada. I'll hopefully be accumulating more in both companies if gold dips again.
There are lots of reasons to like Sprott Inc really but my main reasoning for such high exposure is that they capture all the Market Beta necessary to do well in this gold bull run. Moreover they mitigate the risks associated with the mining companies (obviating the burning matches). Franco is obviously the best pure PM royalty company in the world but they aren't cheap.
Northisle up >25% since posting here (I hold). I think it’s time to buy up some select miners again. I’ve retaken a position in Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) this week, buying between 13-14.5p .
Hi. Centamin is constantly falling. I do not know what to think.
Hi Alex. Centamin (LON:CEY) fell far this week!! I've been buying it on the way down (never try to catch a falling knife, I should know that by now).
Anyway Rick Rule gave it a score of 4 a few weeks ago and said it was cheap ... so it is really cheap now.
This chart will make you feel better if you bought Centamin (LON:CEY) at the wrong price:
Hi John. I agree, it seems to stay cheap. I've been looking at £GPS for a while, it hasn't done a good job of capturing Beta.
Think I might have found a nice speccy Canadian microcap explorer that's looking very promising for a breakout. Resource location couldn't be better in terms of infrastructure, management with skin in the game and good pedigree, and i read Sprott had taken a shareholding too. The resource, adjacent to BHP 's old 'Island Copper Mine', is on Vancouver Island!
I think it looks worth a small wager :)
Stockranks quite like it too @ 77, 43, 81 - 76
Check out 'Northisle Copper & Gold' CVE:NSX
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
https://markets.businessinside...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/...
Hi Forbsy. Very interesting!
GOLDEN PROSPECT PRECIOUS METALS LTD - Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM)
This Gold Investment Trust has a 22.53% discount!! Look very cheap to me (no yield though).
It looks essentially like an IT version of a junior gold mining ETF (i.e. leveraged gold play).
Have a look at its top 10 holdings:
I hold :)
£GPS it is, or seems to be, very well run and is very cheap, problem being , its nearly always cheap :( I hold
Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM) i mean, still no mobile editing
Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM)
Does the 22.53% discount you mention take into account the subscription shares that are likely to be exercised on 30 November?
Well, both Gold and Silver have broken out of the top of their risk ranges. These were $1929 for Gold and $24.99 for Silver.
I suppose a conservative investor might wait for confirmation: i.e a retest of the top of the range to test that resistance has become support. But for those with less patience the top few Stockranks in the major ETFs are:
- GDX: Newmont (NEM) and Kirkland Lake (KL)
- GDXJ: Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) and Eldorado Gold (EGO)
- SIL: Polymetal (Polymetal International (LON:POLY) ) and Fresnillo (Fresnillo (LON:FRES) )
- SILJ: Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Hochschild (Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) )
Note that on the above I do not have access to the Canadian and Australian elements of the above ETFs within Stockopedia. Perhaps Alphaflight or Forbsy could add???
Within just the UK (LSE) Gold and Silver listings then: Polymetal International (LON:POLY) is an obvious choice and Wheaton Precious Metals (LON:WPM) has just listed if you want a royalties play. As would FNV on a US listing.
Over in Copper (CBoE Continuous Contract) has not quite broken out of the top of its range (3.17), yet. Neverthless the top SR within the COPX ETF are currently: Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) and Southern Copper (SCCO)
Remember that factor based investing does rely on the portfolio effect to avoid the randomness of "hits" and "misses".
Perhaps the conservative approach would be to wait for a Dollar-Up day to see is these risk levels will hold???
M.
Canadian elements:
GDXJ: Kinross Gold & B2Gold Corp.
GDX: Franco Nevada & Agnico Eagle
Silver as listed above.
Hi Marco,
Thanks very much for this.
Yes chartists were looking at $1929 but gold smashed right through that. As this is a secular gold bull market it will blow up at some point especially with a weak dollar president like Biden (assuming he becomes president). So with more money printing than the republicans were proposing and more misallocation of capital under the new quazi-leftist government (Harris was a Marxist just like Corbyn in her youth as you probably know) it all looks bad for the dollar and good for the yellow metal (oh and silver too!).
At the start of the week I was actually expecting a big pullback in gold to tell you the truth however I’m not so sure if we will get than now with Biden at the helm.
EB Tucker is confident that gold with see $2500/oz by the end of the year (~28% higher than spot gold right now) , I believe he will be proved correct. The December price however is currently $1951, I have a good mind to buy some call spreads to be honest.
In terms of best value for the Canadian PM stocks, the results come out as follows. SEA, MUX and NG score well (I don’t own any of them unfortunately).
1. Seabridge Gold (SEA)
2. First Majestic (FR)
3. Barrick Gold (ABX)
4. McEwen Mining (MUX)
5. Novagold Resources (NG)
6. Sprott Inc (SII)
7. Osisko (OR)
8. EMX Royalties
9. Sand Storm (SSL)
10. Maverix Metals (MMX)
11. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
12. Franco Nevada (FNV)
My favourite stock from the above list is still Sprott Inc with their 3% dividend (highest of them all). A friend of mine recently sent me this old Rick Rule quote which I quite like:
"…I can say from my own perspective, and as you know Maurice, I'm the largest shareholder now of Sprott Inc. The attractiveness, to me, is that Sprott Inc. does only resources—we don't try to be all things to all people. We have concentrated on an area that's out of favor—an area that's out of favor, where every prior time and my life that's been out of favor, it returned to favor.
Sprott's market share, offering financial service to investors in natural resources and also to natural resource issuers, grows and grows and grows, even as our competitors shrink or, in some cases, die. We have managed to stay profitable as a firm during a bear market that has seen equity valuations in the small cap resource space followed by more than 80%. In other words, while most of our competitors have died, we have continued to thrive. We have a very strong balance sheet; we manage or administer over $10 billion in assets, which is a lot in the junior resource space.
And importantly, we pay a very healthy dividend. Today, I think the dividend is around 4%. If you were to buy a broad-based natural resources mutual fund, you'd probably be paying 125 basis points. That is a 1.25% management fee. If you buy Sprott, which gives you the same diversification, we pay you a 4% dividend, so it's pretty compelling arithmetically. Even aside from all of the other benefits that you might see by owning Sprott."
Note: Sprott’s (TSX: SII) earnings report is today. I predict they will jump…
Does anybody own either of these two "optionality" gold companies and if so what is your opinion of them?
NovaGold (TSX: NG)
Seabridge Gold (TSX: SEA)
Stockopedia's metrics suggests that Seabridge is still cheap.
Also, McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX) looks interesting although like everything else it has jumped in price today.
Hi Alphaflight, I have previously held McEwen mining but sold out for a break even trade a few months ago due to excessive volatility around the $1.30 mark so maybe looking decent value just now. I think it's a management play primarily, a bet on future discovery / extension of existing mine life in the Nevada territories from the investment case I'd read before. Not sure if things have improved or if the other projects may drive the SP though.
Rob McEwen was the founder of Goldcorp before selling to Newmont for $10billion, so the question really is - can he do it again?
Haven't came across the others you mention but will take a look, thanks.
Hi Forbsy, thanks for the feedback much appreciated!
Funnily enough Rob McEwen was my main attraction to the company and I believe he owns 20% or more of the stock which is always a good sign...
Regarding NovaGold (TSX: NG) and Seabridge Gold (TSX: SEA), I found out about them recently via a Rick Rule interview, he seem to think they have a lot of upside potential if gold goes high:
;feature=youtu.beAdam Hamilton (Zeal) has produced another of his sector analysis series - this time focussing on seasonality effects on Gold and Gold Miner market prices: https://www.mining.com/gold-st... & http://www.zealllc.com/2020/gs...
I checked this out on a Seasonality toolset:
So yes, I am satisfied that there is a seasonal effect on Gold and PM Miner pricing in the months November-December-January-February. The effect seems to be led by Gold with Silver lagging, and led by Majors with Juniors lagging. First mover being Gold Majors (GDX) and lagged most by Silver Juniors (SILJ). Of course this could simply be a correlation with equities generally which are also traditionally bullish at this time of year.
For those with a shorter term disposition Hedgeye produced a daily update today that was still Bullish trend on Gold (low end of risk range $1861; high end of risk range $1940). Silver is still on a Neutral Trend. Copper Bullish trend ($301 - $321 risk range).
Watch out for the USD and signs of disputed election results state-side!
M.
This is the issue with just relying on the pure data. It is always worth digging deeper Trident Royalties (LON:TRR) listed on AIM on 2 June 2020. (I don't hold but is on my watchlist once the next round of fundraising is completed).
LSE listing
Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) one thing I had not realised was the dividend is over 8% which is rather nice, I have just bought a few for my SIPP.
Yes Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) is one of my favorite stocks and they still look pretty cheap right now.
Altius Minerals Corp in Canada have a much better portfolio that LON:APF but their dividend is significantly lower. Altius cover a lot of the base metals as well as some gold and silver.
Hello Alphaflight
Out of curiosity, why do you rate Altius portfolio much higher than Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) ?
Do you feel aspects of APF weigh it down? Or is Altius just superior.
Thanks
Hi mojomogoz,
As I say, I own both Anglo Pacific and Altius and I feel that they compliment each other (Altius has lots of potash, Anglo Pacific has more uranium exposure etc etc). I view them as leveraged base metals (and other) plays, superior to sketchy ETF equivalents (Daily Copper 2x, Lithium 2x, Zinc 2x et al).
As I'm expecting to see inflation at some point in the future (unlike the gov bond "markets" :-)) I figure that owning these two royalty companies should act as inflation hedges.
Altius' stock was not moving until fairly recently. Commodities have of course been out of favour (and still are). The investing public is invariably turned off because of the coal assets (similar argument for Anglo Pacific too of course). The ESG screens will block ALS on that basis, so many funds are probably avoiding them for those political reasons. CEO Dalton has said that they are trying to get rid of the coal assets, it was all a package deal that brought them the wonderful potash assets which I really like. The stock should get a lift when they can get rid of the coal (I actually like coal but that is another conversation). Those are supposed to subset in 2030, so if they don't get compensation from Canada (for the taking involved in banning coal), they will sell or write them off by then.
Altius are pioneering "alternative power royalties" via their subsidiary "Altius Renewable Royalties Corp"; I can see this doing really well especially under a Biden/Harris presidency. This is the main reason for my preference of their portfolio over Anglo Pacific's but I think it makes sense to hold both companies.
CEO of Altius Brian Dalton has a massive stake in the company of course which I like too. He targets very long lifespan royalties/streams too so the company could grow organically alone now:-)
This is quite a good interview with Dalton:
Hi guys,
Do you have any thoughts on Duke Royalty (LON:DUKE) as a royalty streaming candidate that is listed on the UK markets? I saw it highlighted by user Camraid on another thread and thought it looked interesting.
Don't think DUKE have any PGM's as yet but seems likely they could enter the space if not already doing so.
If you want UK listed exposure to the PGM space, you may wish to consider the recently listed Trident Trident Royalties (LON:TRR) . There's a lot of material on the web following its listing with the CEO Adam Davidson raising its exposure as the only UK focused resource royalty play. Here's a Crux interview;
https://youtu.be/WoRlvuefIB0
That's great, just the ticket! Definitely worth a small allocation I think having watched the video. Thanks for highlighting.
It does look likely they will do an equity issue before too long though. I guess if handled well not too damaging? ie no discounts, use of exact average weighted price or other?
Trident Royalties (LON:TRR) is up 70% since March. Stockopedia say they are a momentum trap, I'd be inclined to agree.
If the current chart pattern holds, it could keep on trucking... worth a spread bet at least imo.
Duke Royalty (LON:DUKE) focus on corporate royalties (no PM exposure) so they provide finance to small private European companies and in return they receive a royalty. Actually I own some of this stock so I am biased of course. They are the only European listed company in this space right now by the way.
Duke royalty are producing more and more shares. Does it matter that they are struggling?
Alphaflight is correct that Duke Royalty specifically do not operate in the mining sector.
So off-topic for this thread but they had a difficult Covid crisis as one of their larger holdings was a river cruise company and they have other holdings that were hit.
Popped the Canadian selections from Alphaflight into another toolset to see how they look - as I do not have access to the Canadian market on Stockopedia, yet.
RV = Relative Value (rather like Value in Stocko)
RT = Relative Trend (rather like Momentum in Stocko)
RS = Relative Safety (rather like Quality in Stocko)
CI = Comfort Index (a measure of resilience to pricing setbacks)
VST = master index (rather like QVM in Stocko)
A quicktest is just a simple form of backtest, in this case from the 2nd January this year.
My choice from the above is: FNV and WPM - conservative choices!
Thanks Marco this is useful.
Also note that Franco Nevada have a load of Oil Royalties under their belt which is very interesting (as oil is on its knees obviously). FYI: Another good oil royalty company that I own is Freehold Royalties in Canada, they pay a ~5% dividend.
Note: Sprott Inc (SII) is in my opinion the best value for money right now and their dividend is the highest of the PM royalty companies. I own all of these but I bought more Franco Nevada on Friday and also more Sprott Inc. Sprott deals with sovereign wealth funds and so on (Sprott own the gold/silver/platinum) vaults as well as lots of royalty/streaming etc. They stand to do well as PMs becomes more prevalent in the world.
-Alphaflight
What is the SII dividend per annum? Stocko says 2.6% but I don't trust their dividend figures anymore.
Hi herbie47: Yes the dividend is about 2.6% so better than Franco or wheaton despite sitting next to them in quality level:
OK thanks, SII does look quite interesting.
herbie47. Well I'm biased as a Sprott shareholder but Rick Rule is still Sprott's biggest shareholder I believe. He is up there with Pierre Lassonde i.e. the old gold/silver veterans that have made billions of dollars in the past, they are the Warren Buffetts and Charlie Mungers of the PM world...
If you look into what Sprott have financed in terms of gold miners for example you will see that their fingers are/were in every pie (something else that took me a while to identify). I own for example £SRB for the reason that they were previously financed by Sprott (so my initial child-like reasoning was that they matched the necessary criteria on Sprott's due diligence list).
herbie47, it seems to be the nature of the beast. Extracting Gold is becoming increasingly difficult. The low fruit has been taken and what remains often comes with serious issues. Everything from jurisdiction to technical problems. In my opinion, Gold has a long way to run and Gold mining stocks are an excellent way into that theme. But diversification is key. Too much can go wrong. Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ), a company that I'm invested in, was recently impacted by the war in Nagorno-Karabakh - some of its engineers were conscripted and the company revised down its guidance production figures. That's why I hold a portfolio of Gold producers (No explorers - that is at the casino end of the market) and all with low all-in sustaining costs. The only way I want exposure to Gold mining exploration companies is through a collective investment (Which I also hold) and they represent a small part of the overall portfolio. But a diversified portfolio is key and that includes larger producers. One of the largest (By market capitalisation) Gold plays I hold is Polymetal International (LON:POLY). The latter has just announced good results and has a portfolio of operations - both open-pit as well as underground and, very importantly, it can extract Gold from refractory ore. Operationally, it's doing well but comes with what some might regard as jurisdictional risk (It's based in Russia). Most Gold miners seem to come with flaws - the downside could be 100% and that's why I prefer to spread it around. Yes, I'm a super spreader, at least in terms of Gold miners.
Thanks, I'm pretty well diversified with 4 gold miners but a bit surprised 3 have been hit in as many weeks. I did reduce my Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) holding. I do hold Polymetal International (LON:POLY), that is doing well.
herbie47: It took me a while to work out that the Royalty/Streamer companies are the smartest way of getting leveraged exposure to gold and silver. The mining companies however are essentially burning matches, nevertheless I own Serabi, Centamin and Shanta. I sold out of the other main UK listed miners (such as Anglo Asian, Highland Gold etc) and moved further into Royalty/Streamers in order to obviate my headaches.
I have a list here in this thread below of the main royalty players. Note If you want gold plus base metal royalty exposure then look at Altius, they are good quality and cheap, Rick Rule scores them at 4 (i.e. same score he gives to Franco Nevada!).
Ratings as of about 2 weeks ago:
Note: I own all of the 4's above.
OK thanks, I will look into Royalty/streamers which I don’t know anything about.
Hi herbie / Forbsy,
Yes my list is all Canadian except Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) (Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) own one of the Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM) Royalties in Africa). Anglo Pacific is dirt cheap in my opinion, I bought a lot more yesterday and will continue building a position on pull backs hopefully. Their ~9% dividend is nice too!
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is about to have a joint listing on the LSE next week. They are almost as good as Franco Nevada...
Note that Franco Nevada has a market cap of 35 billion and only have 38 staff !!!! Incredible business model with basically no overheads.
Also look at Metalla Royalty and Streaming (MTA)!
Roughly speaking the precious metal royalty/streaming companies will rise twice (or more) as fast as the underlying gold spot price so they effectively act like a x2+ gold ETF and they pay (in some cases) a dividend.
Sprott Inc (SII) has a massive Royalty/Streaming component and they pay best dividend of all on my list, moreover has Rick Rule as its biggest shareholder:-)
- Alphaflight
Had a quick look and it seems all are Canadian apart from Anglo Pacific (LON:APF). On foreign shares I have to pay 1% forex fee each transaction so that is not good, not checked if those can be held in an ISA yet.
Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) looks interesting and has had some directors buying recently around 105p.
Hi Herbie, I'm also looking to add some streamers. The only thing that stopped me buying into Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) is the apparent, current, lack of exposure to PGM's...
Excerpt from most recent RNS I can find showing the royalty distribution.
"So far, Anglo Pacific has royalties in coking coal, iron ore
and uranium. It is seeking to acquire royalties from metals such
as copper and lithium and rare earth minerals, which are
associated with a shift towards greater electrification.
Geographically, it is looking for projects in South America,
Australia and Europe.
Anglo Pacific already has a warchest of $75 million without
needing to raise more capital, Treger said. "
A lot of gold miners have been hit in the last few weeks, Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ), Centamin (LON:CEY) and now Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) for various reasons.
Hi herbie47:
Very true!!
As per Serabi's 3rd quarter report (link), they are back on track. Most market participants are not looking at these stocks so they are still (in my opinion) dirt cheap. If gold starts to take off (as I believe it will), Serabi will blow right up in price i.e. leveraged gold basically.
Centamin is recovering a little bit today. I spoke to Rick Rule a few weeks ago (I emailed him via is metals portfolio ranking page - link) and he gave it a rating of 4 and said it was cheap (he gives Franco Nevada a 4 for your reference).
Every time Gold dips and I question my thesis and then I remind myself of the last 2 Gold Bull Runs:
(1) 1971-1980 (gold up 2,200%)
(2) 1999-2011 (gold up 760%)
Since 1971 (i.e. when the US came off the Gold Standard), gold is up 5,000% even after the bear market setbacks (1981-1998 and 2011-2015). Gold has to go higher I believe meaning the gold mining companies will come back into favour.
C
Thanks, I think patience is the key. Not sure about Centamin (LON:CEY), it was recovering before and then fell again.
Solgold (LON:SOLG) likely to continue the recent breakout imo as they advance their rapid drilling programme across multiple high quality targets throughout Ecuador. Recent pick up in activity there would support the thesis by Macro re South American miners/explorers.
CV-19 has been impacting Gold and Silver miners in Peru and Mexico.
However, just spoken to a Peruvian friend who tells me that the family back home think the worst is over in terms of CV-19 infections. Apparently in Peru everyone now wears masks in all public settings, all public building have foot disintection at entry. Getting organised and should now have the benefit of a Southern hemisphere summer?
Looking at the FT figures for Gold / Silver mining countries shows the seasonality of the virus spread between Southern and Northern hemispheres:
Does make me wonder whether to favour the Southern hemishphere miners versus Russia over our winter months?
Peru is on it's first wave still, it has the highest number of recorded deaths , per million from CV-19, in the world. It is too early to know how the second wave will affect countries, so far the death rate has been lower. Recorded numbers difficult to compare countries as some are doing much more testing than others. I think the problem in colder climates is mixing CV-19 with the seasonal flu. Not sure it is seasonal, as UK got first wave in March until around July, the lockdown did have an effect but now in September lockdown ended, so cases are going back up again. This pattern has occurred in many other countries.
On 9th October over at www.mining.com Adam Hamilton (Zeal) wrote another of his sector reviews on Gold: https://www.mining.com/web/gol... & http://www.zealllc.com/2020/gm... suggesting that the price correction is not quite over yet. Essentially the ratio of the GDX ETF to the Gold price needs to come back into the channel - preferably well into the channel.
Meanwhile over at Stockcharts on 1st October Martin Pring wrote a technical analysis piece suggesting that the low may be in (the oversold RSI), but caveating that statement that he is waiting for confirmation. On the GLD ETF that would be: the Red support line holding, the Green resistance line being broken and the 50d MA being broken. As of today all but the breaking of the 50d MA have occured. ... And the KST indicator has just tiggered a Buy signal.
Summary: Close, but not quite yet! Even more patience seems to be required. An optimist might say this gives us time to get ready???
M.
Some of the big mining companies are still cheap according to Rick Rule so I'm still buying on pullbacks. Gold is going back up above 2000/oz at some point in the next 6 months you can be sure of that.
Yes, I still hold core holdings in GDX , GDXJ and SIL , and am acculating in WPM and FNV . When I get a confirmed up signal I will add a select few high Stockrank stocks from each ETF. When SILJ starts to outperform SIL and GDX , GDXJ it will be added to the mix, too.
Going back to Adam Hamilton (zealllc.com ) I have been trying to re-create his GDX/GLD ratio chart. What I am finding is that the placing of the channel is somewhat subjective. See below. The channel could just as easily have been placed higher. Right mouse click to 'View Image' in more detail.
This charting issue does not matter much at the moment. The ratio of Gold Miners to Gold Price is still falling, Gold Price is falling, and so there is nothing to do - other than 'fade' long positions on up Dollar days - if one feels in the mood!
What target prices for gold, you think will be in end 2021-2022?
Sorry for newbie question.
Alex,
The top of a bull run in Gold, Silver or indeed stocks is un-knowable.
From past Precious Metal bull-runs we know that the stock prices of Miners typically rises by x3 for Gold Miners, and as much as x5 for Silver Miners from trough to peak. By that measure we are not even half way there.
However, no two precious metal bull runs are likely to be the same. A period of broad price inflation in the late 1970s will be fundamentally different from a re-bound out of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 where inflation was muted. So, the answer is that nobody really knows.
Furthermore parabolic peaks in asset prices are very volatile periods, with prices swinging wildly. Knowing when to get out of a parabolic run - or when to stay in for one more leg higher - is also unknowable. That is true whether it is Gold / Silver / Miners or indeed Tech Stocks.
In the short term (up to the USA election result being a known known) we can expect rising implied volatility in the options markets. All things being equal (... they may not be) this should spill over into the cash markets to produce rising realised volatility. Generally money tends to flow away from asset classes with high and rising volatility, towards asset classes with lower and ideally lowering volatility. At present there are not many asset classes out there with implied volatility that is trending lower. ... Expect prices of all risk assets to decline towards the election result being definitively declared?
So even though most Gold-bulls believe that "inflation is coming", and that "cash is trash" you might like to know that I am currently holding ~40% cash! A precious metal bull run might last 3 years or more, or peter out after 18 months. The interim pull-backs tend to be 'serious'. Treat it as a 'campaign' and not a single 'battle'.
M.
The last big bull gold run was ended by Paul Volker when he allowed market forces to take place (i.e. he let interest rates rise). We won't see that this time, there are no Paul Volkers out there so expect more "stimulus" and lots of it over the coming years. It is all bullish for gold as real rates of return on gov bonds are going to stay low for a long time. Timing this mess is impossible so go with a thesis i.e. the conditions are good for gold/silver so merely buy on the pull backs over time.
Looking at Fresnillo (LON:FRES) on a 5 min chart there was sustained high volume selling for the first 30 mins. Looking at the trade history on the LSE site there seems to have been a large trade at the open which was then follwed by a stream of 'ALGO' trades. Choose your own interpretation. Could have been a large trade that pulled price down and then triggered stops? Who by? Under what motivation?
For Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) there seems to have been no trade volume until mid afternoon. It is very small.
The equivalent data set for Gold Miners (Mid Cap) ETF GDXJ, taking results and analysis from the Q2 www.zealllc.com report at: https://www.mining.com/web/gol...
Overall a much stronger picture than the Silver Miners. Several with good fundamental, good Stockranks and good momentum trajectories versus the underlying metal index as benchmark. ... Pleased that I still hold it! Centamin (LON:CEY) momentum weakening - but perhaps one to stalk for a good technical entry?
The equivalent data set for Silver Miners (Large Cap) ETF SIL, taking results and analysis from the Q2 www.Zealll.com report at: http://www.zealllc.com/2020/sm...
The gaps in the data are from Canadian, Mexican and Korea listed stocks. which I do not have data for.
What does the data say to me? Perhaps that the previous leaders (with the good fundamentals and good Stockranks) have already weakened in terms of momentum and relative strength. And, perhaps that those with weaker fundamentals have better momentum trajectories. So, I think my conclusion is that I will be sitting out Silver stocks until those with the good fundamentals show some technical recovery. Moreover, narrative from Zeal's Adam Hamilton suggests that you really need to know what is going on with the Covid related mine shutdowns in Mexico and Peru - which I dont! If I was to be tempted into a holding in single stock it might be Polymetal International (LON:POLY) , or Fresnillo (LON:FRES) .
I note Fresnillo (LON:FRES) are down almost 7% today, can't see any news.
Any thoughts on Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) which have underperformed other gold miners this year, they are down over 15% over the year.
I have been looking at the quarterly Sector summaries from www.zealll.com to see if there is information that might be actionable.
The most recent (12th-14th August) report on the Gold Miner (Large Cap) ETF can be seen at: http://www.zealllc.com/2020/gm...
So, thinking about how to combine this information with Stockopedia brought back memories of a particularly annoying boss from many years ago who - no matter what I did - always asked for all of the information to be re-presented on just one page. So with that in mind ....
So, the cells on the left, from Stockopedia, show 'The Stock Ranks' - where green has been colour coded to be good. And the cells on the right show Adam Hamilton's (www.zealll.com ) chart where year on year deltas are shown in green for 'good'. The blank lines are those stocks with Australian, Canadian and Honk
Kong listings - I don't have access to those from within Stockopedia,
unfortunatetly.
So out of the GDX ETF constituents who has the most 'Green'. ... Centamin (LON:CEY) ... which is good news for Roland Head as he has just put it into his SIF Portfolio!
Next up, the GDXJ (Mid Cap Gold Miners) and SIL (Silver). Let's see if the results are the same. ... I hope so as doing the data manipulation was a pain in the neck.
But just to prove that I still cant put all of the relevant information onto just one page, here is a Relative Rotation Graph with the $GOLD Continuous Contract as the benchmark which shows several candidates that have better 'momentum technicals' than Centamin (LON:CEY) .
https://www.mining.com/web/gol...
Latest sector review by Adam Hamilton, Zeal.
Gold Miners, Large Cap (GDX) versus Silver Miners Large Cap (SIL) ? Surprisingly ... SIL
Double check. Gold Miners, Large Cap (GDX) versus Silver Miners Mid Cap (SILJ)? Surprisingly Silver gaining ground here, too.
How about other PGMs? Palladium versus Gold Miners, Large Cap (GDX)? Palladium starting to show relative recovery after a dip.
Rhodium? XRH0 showing short term improvement over GDX.
Copper? COPX Copper Miners ETF showing short and medium term improvment versus GDX.
And within Gold have Mid Caps started to outperform Large Caps, yet? Nope, Not yet.
Conclusion: A broadening of the materials bull run out of Gold into other PGM and industrial metals? But not yet showing a late cycle tilt towards 'Juniors' (Mid Cap) Miners.
As per the resolution of the Requisitioned General Meeting of Petropavlovsk PLC - the Company is now required to arrange for an independent forensic investigation of related party transactions during the 3 years prior to the date of the RGM.
Our group specializes in corporate fraud investigations.
We attach an example of the analysis of cases of suspected fraud at IRC Limited, a party related to Petropavlovsk PLC.
Please contact us at WeChat: AntForensicF "E if you are interested in our service for Petropavlovsk PLC.
The analysis of banking transactions for the period from 01/01/2017 to the present revealedpayments made to the accounts of companies with the purpose of illegal cashing and/ or theirwithdrawal abroad.
In accordance with Russian legislation the activity on cashing out funds (except for cases when it is carried out by banking institutions) or their withdrawal abroad is illegal, contrary to the Federal Law of 08/01/2001 No. 115-FL "On anti-money laundering procedures and financing of terrorism prevention" and under certain circumstances may give rise to criminal liability, the responsibility for which is provided by the following Articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation: Art. No.159 - Fraud, Art.No.172 - Illegal Banking Activity, 174.1 – Money
legalization (laundering) or other property acquired by a person as a result of the commission of a crime, 193.1 – Making foreign exchange transactions to transfer funds in foreign currency or currency of the Russian Federation to the accounts of non-residents accounts using of forged documents, 199 - Evasion of Taxes.
Companies involved in illegal cash withdrawal operations have the following characteristics:
the company does not carry out the real financial and economic activities, doesn't make a
real movement of goods on the basis of contracts, performance of work or services
doesn't take place. All contractual relationships exist only on "paper" and are signed only
for money transferring;
there are no employees required to sell goods, perform work or provide services;
Page 1
there are no assets other than account receivables, as a rule, there are no fixed assets and
reserves;
companies were liquidated subsequently on tax authorities demand;
the CEOS are nominal persons, massive directors (who are directors in 5 or more
companies) and / or founders;
the balance of companies in terms of revenue contain undervalued figures, compared to
the money transferred from CS GOK Ltd;
no payroll taxes are paid;
mismatching between the company's main economic activities and the payments
received by it.
In Russia such types of companies are usually called "fly-by-night companies" (a well-
established idiomatic expression).
Page 2
In our professional opinion, the following payments of the Company could have been made for
the purpose of illegal cashing out:
Company name
INN
Amount (in rubles)'
78, 827, 244. 48
Eq 1 076 644 USD
232, 000. 00
Eq 3 169 USD
40, 772, 731.79
Eq 556 885 USD
9, 547, 900.00
Eq 130 408 USD
9, 101, 780.00
Eq 124 315 USD
AGRO-GARANT Ltd.
7728820499
DalAvto Ltd.
7901545115
ProGaz Ltd.
2724225130
REGION-FINANS Ltd.
2801163280
TechnoComplex Ltd.
2723156902
UPRAVLENIYE
190, 963, 905.26
Eq 2 608 237 USD
4,700, 842.00
Eq 64 205 USD
POSTAVOK Ltd
7704348333
ENERGOLES Ltd.
2461025184
3, 346, 403.53
Eq 45 706 USD
Total amount
Page 2
Analysis of Companies
DALAVTO Ltd.
(INN-7901545115, hereinafter referred to as the Company)
We believe that the Company has the characteristics of a fly-by-night company for the following
reasons:
The General Director and the sole founder of the Company is Aleksey Dmitrievich
Spivakov, INN - 790101068322.
The Company did not actually carry out economic activities, and that's why it was
liquidated by the decision of the Federal Tax Service on the basis of the Federal Law of
08/08/2001 No. 129-FL, Clause 2, Art. 21.1.
Addresses of the location of the liquidated organizations are assigned to the address of mass
registration.
A.D. Spivakov also was the sole member and CEO of DALAVTO Ltd. (INN-
7901545115), with a staff of 1 person in the staff, with a share capital of 10,000 rubles.
The basic activity of the Company is motor vehicle trade; the number of staff is 1 person.
Address of the Company's location: Office 302, 16, Komsomolskaya Street, Birobidzhan city.
The address refers to the address of mass registration.
1 Note: conversion of rubles into US dollars was carried out at the rate of the Central Bank of Russia as of August
17, 2020
Page 3
Revenue of the Company for the period of 2017 amounted to 389.000 rubles (Eq 5 313 USD);
the Company does not have basic funds. While for the period from 10/30/2017 to 01/11/2018
only CS GOK Ltd. delivered payments to the Company for a total amount: 6, 551, 984 rubles
(Eq 89 489 USD).
ENERGOLES Ltd.
(INN-2461025184, hereinafter referred to as the Company)
We are of opinion that the Company has the characteristics of a fly-by-night company for the
following reasons:
Andrey Leonidovich Sokolov also was CEO and the sole member of the Company, INN -
245305703738.
Page 3
The Company did not actually carry out economic activities, and that's why it was
liquidated 12/20/2019 by the decision of the Federal Tax Service on the basis of the
Federal Law of 08/08/2001 No. 129-FL, Clause 2, Art. 21.1
A.L. Sokolov has the hallmarks of a mass CEO.
Previously, A.L. Sokolov was in positions of:
STKOMPLEKT Ltd. (INN - 2460218313), the member of DISA
LLP (INN-4501017250), CEO of VISIT Ltd. (INN - 6148007778), MONA LLP (INN -
5035008754), CEO of COMFOST Ltd. (INN - 7723206831), Director of AIS LLP.
the Director of TEKHNO
These Companies have been liquidated on the same ground, according to the decision of the
Federal Tax Service.
Account receivables for the last reporting year exceed 90% of all assets of the Company. There
are no other assets.
For the period of 2017 year revenue of the Company amounted to 6.504.000 rubles (Eq 88 833
USD); the Company did not have the main funds.
For 2017 CS GOK Ltd. made payments to the Company totaling: 62.798.731 rubles (Eq 857 722
USD.
TECHNOCOMPLEX Ltd.
(INN-2723156902, hereinafter referred to as the Company)
We believe that the Company has the hallmarks of a fly-by-night company for the following
reasons:
Page 4
The CEO and the sole founder of the Company is Andrey Alexandrovich Lazarev, INN -
272312754247
Actually the Company did not engage in business activities.
Previously, A.A. Lazarev was in the positions of the General Director and the sole member in
DV TECHNIK Ltd. (INN - 2723090948), the member in DVTK Ltd. (INN - 2721141146).
These companies were liquidated by the decision of the Federal Tax Service, indicating that the
information about the address of the location was not reliable.
Page 4
Currently, A.A. Lazarev is simultaneously the sole member and CEO of DV TECHNIK Ltd.,
INN – 2723127316 (the number of staff is 0 people, the charter capital is 10,000 rubles), the
member in DV TAIR Ltd. (2801134352) owning 50% of shares in the authorized capital, the
charter capital is 500,000 rubles, the number of staff is1 person, the information about the
inaccuracy of the location address was put into the UGRLE; he also was the General Director
and the sole member in Technocomplex Ltd. (INN- 2723156902).
The basic activity of the Company is wholesale trade in automotive parts, assemblies and
accessories; the staff consists of 7 persons.
Account receivables for the last reporting year are from 50% to 90% of all assets of the
Company.
The Company revenue for 2017 amounted to 136,469,000 rubles (Eq 1 863 931.USD); the
Company does not have the main funds.
For the period from 2017 to 2020 CS GOK Ltd. made payments to the Company in the total
amount of 53,011,880 rubles (Eq 724 051 USD) .
Agro-Garant Ltd. (INN-7728820499, hereinafter referred to as the Company)
The Company was registered on 10/03/2012 at the legal address: K12, POM 412B, 4th FLOOR,
BUILDING 16, MITINSKAYA STREET, MOSCOW CITY, 125430.
The General Director is Sergey Anatolyevich Petrov (INN-772736627302)
We are of opinion that the Company has the characteristics of a fly-by-night company for the
following reasons:
The Company revenue for 2019 amounted to 42,016,000 rubles (Eq 573 866 USD).,
while for 2019 CS GOK Ltd. transferred 40, 277, 548 rubles (Eq 550 122 USD) to the
Company's account, which amounted 96% of the counterparty's revenue.
The number of staff is 5 people.
According to the financial statements for 2020 CS GOK Ltd. has already transferred 38,
549, 696 rubles (Eq 526 522 USD) to the company's account.
Page 5
Page 5
According to the documents of payment the funds were transferred for the work
performed under the contract, while the main activity of the company is Wholesale
trade in oilseeds and oil-containing fruits.
Over the past 2 reporting years the company has receivables of more than 90% of all
assets.
The General Director S.A. Petrov was the founder and CEO of 3 liquidated companies.
Moreover, at the specified address on 04/01/2020 an absolute "double 2" of this company
was registered having the same name, director, but with other founders and INN.
Region-Finance Ltd. (INN-2801163280)
The Company was registered on June 21, 2011 at the legal address: OFFICE 507, BUILDING
103/1, KALININA STREET, BLAGOVESCHENSK CITY, AMUR REGION, 675000.
The General Director is Alexey Vitalievich Khokhlov (INN-280119217945)
The main business: 69 - Activities in the field of law and accounting.
We believe that the Company has the hallmarks of a fly-by-night company for the following
reasons:
For 2019 CS GOK Ltd. transferred 9, 547, 900 rubles (Eq 130 408 USD) to the
company's account. While the revenue of the company for 2019 amounted to 3, 318, 000
rubles (Eq 45 318 USD) according to the financial statements, which is 3 times less than
the funds transferred;
The funds were transferred for LIEBHERR R 934 C AK 3582 Excavator of 2012
production year, whereas the main business of the company was activity in the field of
law and accounting.
At the beginning and end of 2019 there were no main funds and reserves of the
company.
Page 6
There is only 1 person in the staff.
The General Director A.V. Khokhlov was the founder of 4 liquidated companies.
UPRAVLENIYE POSTAVOK Ltd. (INN-7704348333)
DENIS VALERIEVICH LEGENKIN is the General Director (INN-280113214909)
The Company was registered on 03/09/2016 at the address: Office 09, bldg. 1, 6, Luzhnetskaya
embankment, Moscow, 119270.
Page 6
The core business: 46.21-Wholesale trade of grain, unprocessed tobacco, seeds and feed for
farm animals.
We believe that the Company has the characteristics of a fly-by-night company for the following
reasons:
For 2017 CS GOK Ltd. transferred 246, 036, 264 rubles (Eq 3 360 430 USD) to the
Company's account, while according to the financial statements for 2017 the revenue of
UPRAVLENIYE POSTAVOK Ltd. amounted to 33, 205, 000 rubles (Eq 453 523
USD), which is several times less than the funds transferred only by CS GOK Ltd.;
For 2018 the amount of 69, 859, 530 rubles (Eq 954 161 USD) was transferred to the
Company's account by CS GOK Ltd., which is almost 100% of the revenue of
UPRAVLENIYE POSTAVOK Ltd.. According to the financial statements for 2018 the
company's income amounted to 70, 205, 000 rubles (Eq 958 879 USD);
For 2019 CS GOK Ltd. transferred 80, 875, 826 rubles (Eq 1 104 624 USD) to the
Company's account, which is less than the total income of UPRAVLENIYE
POSTAVOK Ltd. According to
amounted to 67, 976, 000 rubles (Eq 928 435 USD);
financial statements for 2018 the Company's revenue
The staff consists of 1 person;
The company is located in Moscow, however, the basis of payment is "for 3 BR Type
Coal"
The fact of purchasing coal from a Moscow Company arouses bewilderment, which staff
Page 7
consists only of 1 person, however, CS GOK Ltd. purchases coal from other major
operators including Russian Coal JSC. Payment is made for coal despite the fact, that
UPRAVLENIYE POSTAVOK Ltd. has its core business - wholesale trade of grain,
unprocessed tobacco, seeds and feed for farm animals.
The General Director D.V. Legenkin is also CEO and a founder of 9 different companies.
Account receivables for the last 2 years exceed 90% of the Company's assets.
Throughout its activity the Company does not own the main funds.
PROGAZ Ltd. (INN-2724225130)
The Company was registered on October 31, 2017 at the address: Office 4, Corp. K, 20,
Promyshlennaya Str., Khabarovsk, 680009.
The General Director is Sayora Abatovna Kulagina (INN-143409142135).
The core activity: 41.20 - Construction of residential and non-residential buildings.
Page 7
From the analysis of the Company it can be assumed that Progas Ltd.is involved in dubious cash
withdrawal operations, CS GOK Ltd.is the owner of these funds.
We are of opinion that the Company has the characteristics of a fly-by-night company for the
following reasons:
For the period of 2017-2018. CS GOK Ltd. transferred 33, 184, 121 rubles (Eq 453 238
USD)to the Company's account (21, 267, 901 rubles (Eq 290 483 USD)- in 2017 and 11,
816, 220 rubles - in 2018). According to the accounting statements for 2018 the
Company's income amounted to 12,783,000 rubles (Eq 174 594 USD), which is almost 3
times less than the funds received from CS GOK Ltd. Transfers for 2017 were made at
the end of the year, but that transferring was not reflected in the financial statements.
The company was just registered and 21,3 million rubles (Eq 290 921 USD) (were
transferred to it in 2017;
Page 8
At the moment of payment there were no employees in the company;
The core activity: 41.20 - Construction of residential and non-residential buildings,
although, the Company is not a member of SRO.
Summary statement:
The abovementioned companies have the characteristics of ones that do not carry out real
financial and economic activities (there is no staff needed for the sale of goods, performance of
work or provision of services, there are no assets other than accounts receivable, companies are
subsequently liquidated at the request of the tax authorities, have mass directors and / or
founders, the balance of companies in terms of revenue contains underestimated indicators,
compared to the funds transferred from CS GOK Ltd., etc.), and aiming at the transit of funds for
the purpose of further cashing out or withdrawing funds abroad that grossly violates the Federal
Law of 08/01/2001 No. 115-FL "On anti-money laundering procedures and financing of
terrorism prevention".
Taking actions contrary to law, illegal operations and violations of the legislation of the Russian
Federation the management of CS GOK Ltd. and the relevant companies may contain signs,
corpus delicti, the responsibility for which is provided for by the following Articles of the
Criminal Code of the Russian Federation: Art. No.159 - Fraud, Art. No.172 - Illegal banking
activities, 174.1 - Legalization (laundering) of funds or other property acquired by a person as a
result of a crime, Art. No.199 - Evasion of Taxes.
Page 9
!
Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) shot up >13% today before closing up 10.27%.
Does anybody know why this occurred? Their press release on Tuesday didn't move the share price much at the time so it can't be attributed to that old news surely?
Thanks.
Returning to the question of whether to have a bias towards 'Junior' (mid-cap) Gold Miners over large-cap Gold Miners.
The chart below shows the ratio of GDX (large cap) to GDXJ (mid cap), with three trend momentum measures below - short, medium and long term.
The long term trend of large cap outperformance that has been in place for ~3 years seems to have been maintained. The recent surge in precious metals seems to have created a short-medium term outperformance of large cap that was quickly followed by a rebalance by the mid caps. But for now we appear to be back to the long term trend.
Returning to the subject of whether to have a bias to Gold or Silver. Over on Stockcharts.com guest writers add blog commentaries on the market. On of those senior contributors is Martin Pring – author of many books on Technical Analysis: https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=m...
Back on 6th July Martin Pring wrote an article entitled, “Silver May Be Close to a Major Breakout”, within which he asked the rhetorical question: “Silver Bottoming against Gold?”. His monthly chart of the two ETFs: the iShares Silver Trust ‘SLV’, and SPDR Gold spot tracker ‘GLD’ is shown below. The indicator used is his own multi-timeframe KST indicator. If you want to understand KST better see: https://school.stockcharts.com...
Martin’s commentary concluded the until the trend line is broken and we see a monthly close above 0.15 then his assumption was the Gold would continue to outperform.
One the neat features of Stockcharts is that you can click on any of the expert’s charts and they become ‘live’ and update with fresh data. The updated chart – with my own annotations – looks like the following today:
So, is Silver outperforming Gold, yet? Using Martin Pring’s approach my conclusion would have to be: “Close, but not yet!”. Note that the chart is a monthly chart which indicates the need for patience. Note too that the indicator used is a multi-time frame indicator which will lag and even if it does trigger that does not guarantee that Silver outperformance would persist. And given the ongoing US dollar gyrations against other major currencies any path for all precous metals is not likely to follow a straight line.
Let’s see what the chart looks like on 1st September.
A summary of the 'static' approaches tested so far for the period 01/01/2019 - now:
By 'static' I mean selections that are made and fixed at the start of the test period - in this case 1st January 2019. Of course 'dynamic' approaches are possible that trade off increased performance against increased dealing (and stamp duty) charge, and if market timing is included attempts to minimse maximum drawdown within the equity curve.
Next I want to have a lok at how to determine if there really is a shift that takes place from large miners at the start of a Gold/PGM bull-run towards smaller miners as the run matures. That will mainly be based around ratio charts of Gold, Silver, and the size biased ETFs.
For the next piece of number crunching I looked back to the start of the bull-run in Gold: 1st January 2019 and looked to see if so called ‘Master Indices’ are predictors of Returns. In this case I looked through the period to 18th August 2020. The two master indices that I used were the Stockrank from Stockopedia and also the master index from Vectorvest, VST. Remember that on 1st January 2019 there has been a bear market in Gold, there is no inkling of a rise in the Gold price. In the cases below I used quartiles. Note too that Eurasia Mining (LON:EUA) was left out of the analysis as its inclusion would have skewed the results:
Conclusions for 1st January 2019:
And what about the data record that was conveniently omitted because it would have skewed the results too much, Eurasia Mining (LON:EUA) ? Neither Vectorvest or Stockopedia places Eurasia Mining (LON:EUA) in the 1st Quartile on 1st January 2019. Vectorvest would have it placed in the 4th Quartile, and Stockopedia in the 2nd Quartile. But, as I mentioned above – when two models disagree that is a reason to look deeper.
Lastly, remember that the above considers what may be the 1st phase of a Gold bull-run and may not be representative of what happens next!
Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM) down 13% this morning!!
I'm guessing Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM) is being hammered this morning due to the military coupe that is taking place in Mali right now. Does anybody know what the implication are here for Hummingbird? I wonder if it is likely that the military will expropriate their Yanfolila mine for example.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/world/africa/Whats-happening-Mali-coup.html
"...The military in Mali arrested the country’s president and prime minister on Tuesday in a coup staged after weeks of destabilizing protests over a disputed election, government corruption and a violent Islamist insurgency that has lasted for eight years."
Thanks Marco
No argument just wanted to know the tools used for backtesting, not being very knowable in the area.
BSV
There's an updated August corporate presentation Solgold Solgold (LON:SOLG) . I do put my research on CEO.ca or ADVFN boards but I noted there was some interest here so;
Slide 3 Franco deal expeceted Q3
Slide 10 new picture of Alpala Camp which has grown significantly from the last picture
Slide 21 DFS back to Q3 2021 (from Q2 in previous chart)
Ineresting to see several slides deleted:
-Alpala PEA showing Tier 1 with block caving (which stated "SolGold has received 10 qualifying bids for the off-take of copper-gold-silver concentrate from Alpala. This points to a strong outcome in the generation of a near term development funding package"),
-Alpala top 5 global development project (SOLGOLD BELIEVES ALPALA IS THE ONLY INDEPENDENT AND INVESTABLE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECT GLOBALLY)
-Metallic overview
-High grade core to deliver fast payback
-Lowest cost copper quartile project
Are things brewing on the corporate funding side of things?
Aug 18 presentation
Added a bit more Trans-siberian Gold (LON:TSG) into my gold stock holdings this morning on strength.
The Evolution Of Fiat Money
Some of you might find the following article interesting: Part 1,Part 2 and Part 3.
I have re-run the back-test on the UK Gold & Silver Miners for the two most recent periods, as these correspond to the period when we also have Stockranks data available from within Stockopedia. I suspect that the Stockopedia team have access to historical data such as FCF and Forward EPS estimates which would also be good to look at:
Bearish: 1st May 2013 through 1st January 2019
Bullish: 1st January 2019 through to today
Perhaps someone with some time on their hands and the necessary motivation could volunteer to tabulate / graph ARR versus starting Stockrank?
Hi Marco,
what did you use to run this backtest ?
Kind regards,
BSV
Bluesky,
... I don't want to get involved in any arguments over which toolset is 'best'. My view is that tools are all good of a particlar purpose. I subscribe to Stockopedia because of the individual stock analysis, the sheer coverage of the market, the forum and the modern software implementation. I also subscribe to Stockcharts because of the charting and technical scanning capabilities, plus the gues analyst articles. The toolset I use for the broad end-to-end investment process is Vectorvest - including backtesting and automation. At present I am sitting in US pre-market with IG open, Stockcharts open for pre-market prices, Stockopedia open and Vectorvest to hand if I need it intraday. A bit like walking into a Gun Room and being confronted by wall to wall weapons ... one day I would like to add Tradestation, and ThinkorSwim, and HGSI. I might give ProRealTime is try out, too! They all have a place and in my mind they are not competing with each other but are helping me to compete. For me interoperabilty between toolsets is important - being able to import / export watchlists from tool to tool quickly is very important to me.
M.
Has anyone tried Trendspider? I'm looking to add to my tools, some great ideas to check out there, thanks Macro. Currently I mainly use Stocko, Tradingview & Twitter with the occasional look at ADVFN & LSE.
Thanks
BSV
Still can’t see past Solgold (LON:SOLG) for long term gains. Nice buying pressure showing up on the charts too.
https://news.financial/comments/barrick-gold-desert-gold-solgold-buffett-s-berkshire-gives-the-starting-signal?_gl=1*1dbfjd3*_ga*NTA1ODQ4MTg2LjE1OTcxNTY3Nzc.
warren buffet is buying gold, well, Barrick, which is a gold miner
https://www.ft.com/content/393...
I was taken by the Quarterly Report on www.Mining.com analyzing the constituents of the GDX ETF: https://www.mining.com/web/gold-miners-q2-2020-fundamentals/
In particular the table of constituents against All In Sustaining Costs and their Return from the recent run in Gold.
So I put the Tickers into a toolset that can do back-testing to see what it might tell us over different timeframes. The toolset I used could only work on one country at a time, so my endeavors are limited to those that are listed on USA exchanges, which thankfully covers the vast majority.
The time period I am limited to is from 1996 through to today, although for obvious reasons there were not ETFs in 1997. GDX was not ‘invented’ until 2006. Below is a monthly Gold chart going back to Spring 1997 with a 200M MA, a 20M EMA and a Chandelier set for 20M look-back and 3.0 standard deviations.
Interesting periods are:
Bearish: 1st February 1996 through 1st January 2002
Bearish: 1st May 2013 through 1st January 2019
Bullish: 1st January 2019 through to today
For completeness, the entire period from 1st February 1996 to today
General thoughts:
Macro - this is excellent work. If it's not too much trouble could you do it with shares traded in the UK
Okay. But it will need to be after US market close.
Macro - Thank you
Terry,
I had a quick look at the UK data this evening. First objective was to answer the question of Annualised Return versus Market Cap.
Ideally the output would be graphed, but the diffence in both return and market cap means that you need to use a log scale. And then you run into problems with taking the log of a negaive return.
One way round that is to produce a "Size Rank" for Market Cap, and an "ARR Rank" for Return.
The next problem is that one data entry skews the result horribly. So removing the entry and continuing the next step is to assign the entries to quartiles by "Size Rank". The answer to the question is that the first quartile by "Size Rank" (i.e. the largest companies) has an average return of 112% pa. The second quartile has an average return of 66% pa. The third quartile has an average return of 49% pa. The fourth quartile (i.e. the smallest by companies by market cap) has an average return of 0% p.a.
So the conclusion is that the larger companies do better. This ties in with the article from mining.com (which was source from http://www.zealllc.com/index.h... ... which suggests that in the early phase of a Gold bull-run it is the larger companies which benefit first, with the smaller companies joining in later.
There is a quick way to check this in the USA where there are ETFs for both 'major' (GDX) and 'minor' Gold Miners (GDXJ). A quick test of these two ETFs over the same time period gives the majors (GDX) an ARR of 64% pa, and the minors (GDXJ) an ARR of 63% pa.
The same check can be done with Silver where the majors are represented in the SIL ETF, and minors in the SILJ ETF. The result was an ARR of 59% pa for the majors (SIL) and an ARR of 56% pa for the minors (SILJ).
I then looked at royalty companies only. An imaginary portfolio of just three "streamers": Frano Nevada (FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) and Royal Gold (RGLD) - these are the three largest Gold royalty companies by market cap with USA listings. The returns over the same time period were: FNV 71% pa; WPM 106% pa; RGLD 40% pa. This gives an equal weighted average of 72% pa ARR.
My conclusion so far:
- If Zeal are right then at some point a bias towards smaller market cap miners is warranted.
- If the ETF backtests are right then we may already be at the mid point of the PGM run?
- If the Silver versus Gold results are any indication then Silver is still at an earlier phase in its run compared to Gold.
- Selecting an ETF seems to place you in the second quartile of ARR, which might be quite acceptable.
- Selecting a small group of streamers / royalty companies places you at the top end of Quartile 2.
If I get time tomorrow night I will have a look at the correlation between historical Stockranks and ARR for the same set over the same period.
PS: I currently hold WPM, FNV, GDXJ and SILJ. What I now know is that I might have purchased them in the wrong order, and that in future I may need to adjust the weightings between the holdings!
M.
From my own research i agree in the early phases of the metals cycle it is the larger producers who benefit most, as they begin to exhaust their mine supply they will look to add further territories. This is when the smaller players would expect to gain more speculative interest. Also need to consider that smaller players may be more likely to have greater forward hedging on the gold price, as this comes of their profitability jumps quickly if the gold price is sustained.
Also added a few Serabi earlier this week on the slight weakness, thanks for the steer.
Also topped up on my Solgold (LON:SOLG) holding on the news of recommencement of drilling programme yesterday.
""The commencement of drilling at La Hueca marks the start of SolGold's next growth phase for the benefit of all shareholders and Ecuador".
To add on Serabi, Crux did a very good interview with Clive Line their CFO, talking through managing cash, balance sheet and exploring debt facilities for Coringa. Very encouragingly he emphasised avoiding diluting shareholders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHyjme-IeJo&feature=youtu.be
Good video
Good update from Serabi Gold today. So unloved in the market generally. If they stop diluting the shares as they say then this will be worth a lot, lot more in my view.
100% agreed! I read all of the Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) unaudited results this morning. My own opinion is that Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) are completely mispriced, the market appears to be applying a large discount here based on the perceived C-19 risk in Brazil. I actually bought more of their shares on Tuesday...with both hands:-)
Is the drop in net assets - a result of the delay to the Coringa purchase ?
Actually it's because investments in subsidiary entities are in BRL , so it merely reflects that and not any cash movement or business related impairment.
Good to know, thanks!
Hi Lee,
I looked at your posting and examined Serbi Gold £SBR. Liked the valuation looking for a long position. Could do well over the next few years.
Thanks !
Certainly a correction in Silver, IShares Physical Silver ETC (LON:SSLN) was down 7% this morning but has recovered somewhat.
Not sure why Gold and Silver prices have fallen so much recently.
Since last week they are still up. It is possible that when they went parabolic and kept on gapping upwards each day, a little amount of exuberance had crept in. Some traders would have been quick to jump on, and also exit.
I don't think it changes the longer term case.
A 1 day much needed pull back. May continue but fundamentals remain sound.
Precious Metal Royalty/Streamer List
I've compiled a list of precious metal royalty/streamers. If anybody knows of any others then please add to the list.
Dynacor Gold Mines
Thanks Forbsy, I'll look into them.
Cheers Alpha. Not sure it’s a pure royalty streamer though, ore processing with interesting Senegalese play in the offing.
I'm looking into Dynacor. In the meantime I bought a couple of my wishlist Canadian Royalty/streamers this afternoon seeing as gold/silver are being "monkey hammered" down.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4363841-precious-metals-royalty-and-streaming-companies-july-report
Worth reading every month.
Hi Lee Brown. Thank you.
Funnily enough I had stumbled onto this article already thanks to Google. I do love these royalty/streamers, they are probably the best business models in the world and yet most people seem to miss the point with them so I'll illustrate it like this:
Franco Nevada
Market cap: ~ $26b
Number of employees: 26
Market cap per employee: >$1b
Apple
Market cap: ~ $1336b
Number of employees: ~100,000
Market cap per employee: ~$13m
I agree! My favourite is Metalla although I bought at $7 which has long gone now. But as you say buy on weakness.
Funny, my favourite is also Metalla although I paid a lot more than you did!
Altius Minerals Corp is another Gold & Silver Royalty/Streamer. They also cover some of the base metals and coal [Copper, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Cobalt, Coal, Lithium, Lead, Iron Ore].
Any views on the consequences of the results of the Petropavlovsk general meeting today?
I sold out on the news. As I understood it, the result increases the likelihood of the company being controlled by another company listed in Hong Kong. Whether good or bad I don’t know, but as things were going well with the share price I’d have preferred the existing board to remain.
Do we include general mining in here or just metals? £Bhp are trending nicely. Looking at Evraz (LON:EVR) about to breakout from a channel but as not great quality. £CEM looks good but not sure how if this market will go higher just on gold price and the world economy naysayers.
Hi Garry. This thread is purely for Precious Metals.
LON:AMC are my choice, although there are a few others I like the look of. This a Nickel play. The post Covid move towards Electric cars will be the game changer with Nickel being major component of the batteries. Amur Minerals have a 1.58million tonne Class 1 Nickel deposit.
Here is a rather brilliantly written article by Alasdair Macleod .
Note: He predicts that the synthetic ETFs will fall apart:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-at-2k-so-why-the-fuss?mc_cid=dc73dcec05&mc_eid=a423c6bd45
Right, so I bought CEY Centamin today to add to my growing holding of Gold Companies.
Another gold company that was not on my list and has just come to my attention is (KAZ) Kaz Mineraies. It's mainly a Copper (80%) miner but also mines Gold (14%), Silver (3%), and Zinc (3%). I will add it to my Paper Folio.
How are the rest of you guys doing?
Yes I like Centamin (LON:CEY) I took some profits but still have a good holding to run with. I hold Physical Gold £SGLN ETF, Gold Producers £SPGP as well as Physical Silver £PHSP. I also have some Pan African Resources Pan African Resources (LON:PAF), Fresnillo Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Silver miners and Hochschild Mining Hochschild Mining (LON:HOC) who mine Gold & Silver.
There don't appear to be many mentions of ASX listed miners on here.
One stock I recently came across which I think looks very promising is a company called White Rock Minerals.
Excellent research has been done here: https://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/white-rock-minerals/white-rock-minerals-1-world-class-gold-target-2-advanced-assets-for-us23-m/
Here is his investment case summary:
My Case For White Rock Minerals in Short:
White Rock Minerals is a pretty simple case. The company owns three projects. The “Red Mountain” asset is an early stage, district scale, base metal play with an inferred resource of 9 Mt grading 13% Zinc Equivalent (Including 46.1 Moz of silver and 260 Koz of gold). The company also owns a currently small but very advanced project called “Mt Carrington” in New South Wales, Australia. This project is on its way towards being fully permitted and already has a PFS done which shows outstanding economics in today’s gold environment. The most exciting aspect of this company however is that it has quite recently discovered an immense gold in soil anomaly near their Red Mountain project which is located within the Tintina gold province of Alaska, USA. The company was not even really looking for gold but was looking for more primarily base metal rich VMS targets that could complement their pre-existing Red Mountain resource.
One can currently buy all three assets for US$23 M which qualifies it as a rare “no brainer” in my book simply because I think any of the three assets is worth more than that alone. In other words I see it as getting three assets for the price of one which by extension implies that I take little to no risk and get any and all benefit from two out of the three assets. Furthermore, I’m not talking about three grassroot exploration assets but talking about a) One low CAPEX, PFS stage project that shows incredible economics at today’s gold price and is perhaps 12-18 months away from a decision to build in a tier 1 jurisdiction, b) One advanced exploration asset in a tier 1 jursidiction with a 9 mt high grade resource already, and c) Probably one of the most impressive grass root gold exploration projects around.
Note that the stockopedia information is out of date.
The company recently did a very well supported cash raising and now have plenty of cash in the bank to see through the development of the projects.
The links to video presentations are well worth watching.
Hi Fungus,
I am definitely interested in the potential of some Aussie stocks as the metals cycle gets going but use HL mainly to trade in my SIPP & ISA, and Spreadex for CFD’s. Neither platform appears to allow trading on ASX shares.
Wondered what broker/platform you use?
You can easily trade all international stocks with ii . I'm surprised HL don't offer it. Have you asked them?
I haven’t spoke to them but they have a list of markets on the website as follows:
ON WHICH MARKETS CAN I BUY SHARES?
Through Hargreaves Lansdown you can deal thousands of UK, American, Canadian and European shares listed on the following markets:
UK markets
London International
London Stock Exchange
North American markets
Canadian Venture Exchange
NASDAQ
NYSE
NYSE ARCA
Toronto Stock Exchange
European markets
Amsterdam Stock Exchange
Brussels Stock Exchange
Copenhagen Stock Exchange
Deutsche Boerse Exchange
Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Helsinki Stock Exchange
Irish Stock Exchange
Italian Stock Exchange
Lisbon Stock Exchange
Luxembourg Stock Exchange
Madrid Stock Exchange
Oslo Stock Exchange
Paris Stock Exchange
Stockholm Stock Exchange
Swiss Stock Exchange
Vienna Stock Exchange
HL: Currency charges?
Not all shares are available from those markets, many Euro shares are not available or have restrictions.
Forex is 1% now.
This link shows that for large transactions (over £5,000), it gets a bit cheaper: https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-dealing/overseas-share-dealing-service#charges
Value of trade
FX charge
First £5,000
1.00%
Next £5,000
0.75%
Next £10,000
0.50%
Over £20,000
0.25%
So to compare apples with apples we would need to compare the round trip innefficiencies for Overseas and UK investments.
Generally no Stamp Duty on Overseas shares, but Currency transactions x2.
Generally Stamp Duty (0.5% x 1 way [buying only] ) for UK shares (except AIM) and no currency innefficiency (unless it is a London listing in a foreign currency).
Then again, as most Londin listed ETFs are domiciled in Luxembourg or Ireland for company registration purposes, there would be no stamp duty to pay, and if the listing is in GBP no currency inneficiency either.
Is Spread betting efficient for overseas shares, and less risky if gearing level can be reduced, compared with international dealing?
I use IG index. Unfortunately they don't trade Canadian shares.
I posted this on the other newish thread so thought I'd copy it here.
Good summary. I'll start the ball rolling...
There are lots of snake-oil sales people around - especially newsletters in North America so treat "hot stories" with care. Crux is indeed excellent and I would recommend June's interview with Rick Rule as a starter for anyone interesting the starting in the sector as he has done it and there are lots of pitfalls! Crux Rick Rule interview
I have long term material holdings in Solgold (LON:SOLG) and Adriatic Metals (LON:ADT1), both of whom are multi-metal explorers (copper/gold/silver and base/precious metals respectively) in emerging juridstictions (Ecuador and the Balkans respectively), both of whom are moving towards production with Tier 1 resources (Alpala and Rupice respectively), with several other land blocks (largest operator in respective countries). The management have skin in the game (and have each won Mines and Money multiple awards such as CEO and explorer awards) in both companies and also have strong stakeholder partnerships with majors likely to move into further corporate activity (including BHP/Newcrest/Franco and Sandfire respectively).
I already offer my research both on the CEO.ca link and ADVFN boards so I don't wish to repeat it here but I hope this is useful!
I have made up a Folio of Gold and Silver stocks. I have filtered the list down by removing all Sucker Stock, all stocks below 20 million Market Capital, all stocks with SR rating less the 10, and all stocks with a "Very Speculative" rating. This leaves me with 28 stocks.
I have also been SB the following Stocks
Epic Name Mining SR Stop Loss
AZZ Anglo Asian Plc Gold 95 SS 18%
ATYM Atalaya Mining Gold 81 SS 10% now at break-even
FRES Fresnillo Plc Gold+Silver 84 HF 14% now at break-even.
GPM Golden Prospect Gold 92 SS 17% now at break-even.
HOC Hochchild Mines Gold+Silver 75 HF 13%
POLY Polymetel Int' Gold& Silver 87 HF 10%
If anyone has any comments I will be very interested to read them.
I like your approach but this will exclude Solgold (LON:SOLG) (currently a sucker stock), which in my opinion, is the best long term play out there in this space. If you haven't read the latest RNS it's worth a look, sounds like the company is getting ready to prepare for premium listing.
Edit: Actually i see it has recently moved from sucker stock to momentum trap in the stock ratings. Next stop is Turnaround :)
Thanks, Forbsy, I will add SOLG Solgold back into my Folio.
I am now looking at CMCL Caledonia Mining and CEY Cemtemin.
The idea behind creating the "Gold Folio" is to monitor the Gold and Silver Shares to see which share price advances the quickest. The top share sofar is CNIC. but it is early days.
Hi, guys, there's gold in those hills
As Solgold (LON:SOLG) is being flagged as a momentum trap and falls into the "expensive junk stocks, tend to underperform" section of the bubble chart it may be too risky for most, better quality out there like £SRB.
Alpha, appreciate your comments. Let's end this squabble.
I have a small position on Serabi. However, Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) is producing therefore the market will rate them on Production.
Solgold (LON:SOLG) is an explorer turning into developer. The institutional shareholders listed on the Stockreport would disagree with this assessment of SolGold ("expensive junk stocks, tend to underperform"); but i would definitely agree it's less of a short term play on current gold price spike. and one for the longer term.
In terms of relative risk: Explorer --> Developer --> Producer
Advise all who are interested in the space to have a mix across types.
Hi Forbsy,
As Franco Nevada are bankrolling the Alpala Solgold (LON:SOLG) project to the tune of $100m I'd say that they more than pass my due diligence criteria so you are correct, they are well worth looking at. Thanks for bringing them to my attention. I have a large Franco Nevada holding so I guess I was getting exposure to Solgold (LON:SOLG) without even realising it:-)
I would advise to look at Canadian stocks as they are far superior. It's easy to trade and you can get another country added to Stockopedia for about £89 I think. My fav UK stock is Serabi Gold SRB although it does has some convertible loan hangover. Going forward it seems extremely undervalued. GPM is great although it is trading close to NAV now, a few months ago it was at a 23% discount! You can find better returns on individual stocks now although riskier of course.
Hi Lee Brown,
Good summary. I can't find a gold mining company more undervalued that Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) right now. This too is my favourite UK listed mining company (it was previously Highland Gold Mining (LON:HGM) before the takeover!)
Moreover, £SRB come out in front of every single UK listed gold miner if you run them all through Stockopedia's bubble chart. The discount is mainly due to perceived C-19 risk in Brazil I beleive, the convertible loan isn't an issue for them and could be paid off immediately. The R$ is the cheapest it has ever been meaning that their running costs are low in terms of selling Au and converting some of the proceeds to R$ to pay salaries et al. 10 years ago R$ was twice as expensive as it is now Vs GBP for example - Brazil is dirt cheap right now.
I don't fully understand it but I think the issue is due to a prior loan which was converted and the shares are being sold off in big numbers currently. It is good the share price is holding up if I am right?
Hi Terry, FYI, Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) mines gold, copper and silver (in that order of significance).
Cheers,
Simon
Hi Simon
Ok, I will check it out, thanks for the heads up, in fact, I will do it right now, then redesignated it. It is very good, because I have been looking for companies with silver elements. as it seems that silver will move up quicker than gold.
DYOR as always
Simon your right of course about the Silver and there's little Zinc also. Thanks again
They don’t currently mine the zinc Terry as it is not in commercial quantities (although that may change with some of their ongoing exploration work). It is currently treated as a contaminant.
Cheers
Simon
Hi Terry
I had a look at Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM) a while ago - as Lee Brown has stated, the discount was up to about 25% but now about 5%.It’s had a good run.
I seem to recall that Simon Cawkwell was interested and looking at a leveraged play via the subscription shares Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPSS). The exercise price of subscription shares is 46.14p on 30 November 2020 with the current sell price being 21 p
Needless to say, Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPSS) is volatile. Not quite my cup of tea, but may be of interest for adventurous souls who are prepared to follow GPM closely.
Edit - the the £sign in front of the ticker hasnt worked very well here as it does not obviously show that two different stocks are being discussed GPM and GPSS. Hope that this makes some sense.
Having viewed the RNS yesterday I see that institutional shareholders are apparently bailing out of Highland. I followed suit on the basis that it seems a done deal. Thank you for the various comments on the subject.
On another point of possible interest I did notice in July an announcement regarding Yamana Gold seeking a listing on the LSE. The article from Proactive Investors can be found here.
The timescale seems a bit vague - does anyone follow Yamana?
I follow Yamana but don't own any. They are still scoring well and the majority of analysts watching it are saying it is a buy (Quality 84, Value 33).
Could someone please explain to me a little more about the pros and cons of holding on to Highland Gold Mining (LON:HGM) until the takeover is completed? When is the sale likely to be completed and what are the advantages of holding on, other than the 5p increase in share price? Is dividend also expected before sale completion? Thanks and sorry if any of this is obvious.
In general I sell when takeovers are announced as risk is usually to the downside, unless enough people want to oppose it. This to me feels like a 'done' deal so there is no advantage to holding. As time goes on you get no advantage from rising gold prices, if that is what you believe is going to happen, so your money is better off elsewhere. Let the arbitragers fight over the final few pennies.
Edit: If truly undecided as to action, then you could sell half. That way you are right whatever happens.
Fortiana have also said they 'reserve the right' to offset any dividend payment so they could drop the 300p figure if it doesn't complete the sale until after the divi is paid.
I sold out on Monday and moved it into another gold miner as I believe there is more upside in other places now. But DYOR.
Firstly, I believe that the bid grossly undervalued Highland Gold Mining (LON:HGM). So, as a shareholder, I have no intention of accepting it. The takeover is due to complete in Q4, 2020. That appears to be a key issue. Shareholders will receive their 300p per share some way down the line. In the meantime, Gold is performing strongly, at least for now. So, I suspect that some shareholders are bailing out and placing their money in other Gold mining stocks.
As for the dividend. Highland Gold has built a strong reputation for rewarding shareholders through dividends. However, the offeror has made it clear that any dividends (Or distributions) will be subtracted from the offer price.
Importantly, shareholders will receive at least 300p per share. In theory, the offer could be increased. And, for now, shareholders probably have little idea about the bidder’s intentions.
Should the Russian authorities not allow the deal to go ahead, I think it’s unlikely that the stock will fall in price - Gold has risen sharply since the bid was announced. If it goes ahead, then shareholders are looking at receiving at least 300p per share in several months.
For US & Canada, also consider ‘McEwen Mining’, high leverage play (I hold). And in Canada I like ‘Osisko Mining’, looking to add this to portfolio too.
Would be interested of anyone has any small cap Canadian & US gold plays?
Does anybody have an opinion on Ormonde Mining (LON:ORM) ?
They are "net cash". Tiny market cap of 3.31m...
In the Folio's 'Quality Vs Value' bubble chart it scores right in the middle.
It qualifies for the Benjamin Graham NCAV Bargain Screen...
Looks like a shell searching for an asset to me. Too high risk. Better plays out there in my opinion.
Hi Forbsy,
Thanks for your opinion. It is a penny stock based in Spain with little momentum behind it. If it was listed on a North American exchange the stock price would have invariably gone through the roof by now.
We are in a gold bull run and Ormonde Mining (LON:ORM) are potentially sitting on what looks like quite a lot of gold here. Their tiny market cap and all this gold under the ground says to me that someone will buy them over within the next 6 month. Consolidation is the name of the game now as more money floods into the PM space.
Peralonso
At Peralonso, an initial diamond drilling program of eleven holes (total of 1,268m) tested a strong gold-in-soil geochemical anomaly. Drilling results:
Cabeza de Caballo
At Cabeza de Caballo, initial trenching on an extensive gold-in-soil anomaly (800m of strike at 50 ppb gold) was followed up a limited diamond drilling campaign of four holes totalling 442 metres. Drilling results:
Pino de Oro
Gold mineralisation at Pino de Oro, Zamora Province, is hosted in steeply-dipping structures characterised by quartz veining, silicification and alteration in granites.
Previous Drilling: In the 1990s drilling was carried by Spanish government agencies which intersected high-grade gold mineralisation. Better intersections included 1.0m grading 65.8 g/t and 10.7m grading 3.7 g/t gold on the El Facho and La Solana structures. Drilling by Ormonde in 2007 confirmed the previous government drilling, with intersections including 1.0m grading 18.9 g/t, 1.0m grading 16.6 g/t and 3.0m grading 4.3 g/t gold.
Hi Alpha,
Appreciate it’s a penny stock with some potential. However, in my opinion, it is very high risk. The drill results are average at best and the gold is very deep, therefore expensive to recover. I personally don’t see this being picked up until very late in the precious metal bull cycle so unlikely to move any time soon. Best of luck if you go for it.
Best regards,
Forbsy.
Hi Forbsy, you might be right, I'll dig deeper:-)
Also I see you are looking at North American related PM investments. I would recommend looking at Royalty/Streamers like MTA, they are a massive leveraged play on the junior minors basically hence why their share price is shooting up (went up 14% yesterday).
Will check it out, thanks for the tip.
£ORM recently sold its interest in the Barruecopardo project (€6m cash). It also holds other assets on their books equating to €2.7m.
This equates to a net asset value of over 1.5p per share.
The share price shot up 32% today (it is a penny stock though).
Current price as I write is 0.75p so it is priced with a 50% discount to NAV. I bought some...
Just looking at an interesting announcement from Serabi Gold which has extended a draw down period on a convertible loan facility without penalty. It has also paid down the remaining $3.5 loan to Sprott.
Also stated that recent production was lower, albeit compensated by a higher gold price.
Hi intuitive,
Here is an interview with Michael Hodgson (CEO of Serabi) from July 22nd, they are doing really well in my opinion with a lot of upside potential. They sent home 35% of their workforce as a precaution so the production numbers were lower but still pulled out 8000 toz...great result and no covid issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=zidepQVcrwg&feature=emb_logo
Thanks Alphaflight
As a brief summary I took the following from the video.
It’s very interesting how quickly these miners can pay down debt in the current situation. Is there an easy way to assess how such companies are hedged against the current gold price? Those with near full exposure to the current price must be making significant money.
Hi intuitive, thank you for a brilliant summary. I bought more Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) this morning.
Mining as you know is a fairly unloved sector. As the money continues to find its way into gold, we will see these mining companies gaining easier access to finance so I'm not so worried about hedging the Au price. Some of the miners are selling below spot price because they previously locked in to sell at a fixed future price in order to hedge - not good when gold is >$2035.
Note: Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff are both predicting $15,000/toz by the year 2025. See Kitco interview below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnOcRRJHTmk
"...Rickards was willing to put a number on it. He projected $15,000 gold by 2025. He extrapolated some data to make his point. And he showed that given the M1 money supply in dollars, euros, pounds, yen and yuan – if you divide it by the official amount of gold, you get about $15,000 per ounce."
A few of the quality UK listed gold mining companies still look undervalued, Serabi Gold (LON:SRB) is one of them I believe.
PERTH MINT BLACKLISTED BY TWO MAJOR BANKS - Two of the world’s biggest banks, HSBC and JPMorgan, have suspended gold purchases from the Perth Mint. The government-owned Perth Mint has been buying up to AU$200 million per year in suspect gold, which has forced the LBMA to placed it under formal investigation.
Also an HGM holder somewhat unhappy with the takeover price. However you go into these things with your eyes open, a smallish cap company (very small when I bought into it) with dominant shareholders is always at risk of an unwelcome takeover, same thing happened with another of my biggest holdings Dragon Oil. I'll probably hold to the takeover but in the meantime look to deploy more of my current cash into another gold miner, not sure any have quite the combination of HGM though (great yield, tons of free cash and good prospects).
Hi martinji: So true I'm afraid!
Hi Iron,
You are very welcome. Yes all true.
I've got some exposure to Hummingbird's Liberian Dugbee mine via my Anglo Pacific (LON:APF) holding, they have the NSR royalty from any sales of gold mined within a 20km radius of a specified point in the Dugbe 1 Resource.
I think/hope Shanta Gold (LON:SHG) might pay a dividend soon, time will tell but they are making so much money that it would be rude no to to pay some of it out to its shareholders:-)
RE Gold and Silver
HI
Has anyone a list of these companies, or can anyone help me set up a screen of gold and silver stocks along with ETFs?
Thanks in advance
Hi, don't panic I have just found the list, they are in a post called
List of Gold and Silver Miners
Er, I think I should have spotted it earlier.
Yeah, ideally people would post everything related to PMs in this thread, it would be easier that way but anyway...
Petropavlovsk story is long and full of characters like War and Peace. Article on forthcoming Boardroom problems by Forbes.ru gives history and profiles. Shareholders votes needed asap. Article will translate from Russian on most PC's
https://www.forbes.ru/milliardery/405641-dlya-nego-kompaniya-delo-vsey-zhizni-kak-byvshiy-senator-voyuet-s-milliarderami
Had a letter of instruction from HL regarding this, deadline to respond is tight. All PI’s recommended to respond ASAP to prevent deterioration in corporate governance. Recent RNS inferred likely to be difficult to get one of the big 4 on board to do the accounts if the Prosperity action fails.
Thanks everyone for comments regarding other gold miners.
I will have a look at Serabi / Shanta / Hummingbird.
Think I need to sharpen my pencil and try and work out how much of the increased gold price will drop through to the bottom line.
Santa
my two penies worth and hopefully they add up to two pence
as mentioned by Graham, if many goverment bonds and central banks are now offering negative interests rates, as a store of wealth you could argue that gold presently has a possitive yield (or at least doesnt have a negative one)
the ratio between gold and silver is historically 50:1, it was 67:1 in 2016 and currently is about 80:1.
Based on todays gold price that gives the silver spot price a target price of $1023 per kg to 2016 levels and $1260 to historic, currently its at $785.
We are currently sitting in histories most hated bull market for equities, nobody seems to trust it and anyone who says they understand it is obviously confused. Therefore a lot of smart money is going into gold. Will it overshoot as HumorMe suggested, almost cerntainly, wheres my money, well a lot of it is in gold and sliver ETfs and theres some more in Polymetal.
interestingly physical silver is becoming harder to get, its all sold out
https://www.sharpspixley.com/b...