It’s tough out there - how our analysts are coping in 2025

In last week’s analyst meeting, the team at Stockopedia commented on the fact that the challenges in the markets seem to have bubbled up rather rapidly. As 2025 began we were all feeling relatively (or perhaps cautiously is a better word) optimistic about the outlook for global equities. Three months later and our collective feelings have changed somewhat.

We know you’re feeling it too. Our message boards are littered with comments ranging from mild uncertainty to hysterical anxiety. And although there is no joy to be shared in these feelings, it’s nice to know that we’re all in the same boat - investors with whom we can weather the storm.

Here’s how the team at Stocko are planning on waiting it out and (hopefully) taking advantage of opportunities as they come. 

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Megan

I’m a long term investor with a strong bias towards quality and growth. It’s a strategy which has served me well as US tech giants have taken the market by storm (I hold four of the Magnificent 7). I also seek to emulate the wise words of Terry Smith and look to make changes to my portfolio as infrequently as I dare. To do so requires strong conviction in the stocks that I own and also resilience when faced with markets behaving as they are right now.

As of 7 April, my portfolio is down 12% in the year to date, with NVIDIA (NSQ:NVDA) acting as an especially heavy weight on the performance. I am glad I stuck to my strategy of rebalancing overweight positions in December - slicing the top off my NVDA holding means it was worth less than 10% at the start of the year. There are nine companies in my 25 stock portfolio which have fallen by double digits so far this year and only ten have risen.

I take comfort in the fact that one of those companies is L'oreal SA (EPA:OR) - a stock which has caused me some trouble over the last couple of years, but I have retained my conviction that the underlying investment case remains the same and, as such, share price weaknesses have presented a buying opportunity. And I am quite pleased to have added Next (LON:NXT) for the first time in January based on the hunch that I might need slightly more UK exposure - it’s been the strongest performer in my portfolio in 2025 so far.

In reviewing my portfolio as the new financial year begins my main objective is to check whether the fundamental investment case for any of the businesses I hold has changed. That’s going to help me make a rational decision rather than one driven by the fear of crystallising losses. It also keeps me grounded in the reality of the company, rather than the increasingly uncertain macro environment.

Even with some backpedalling from Donald Trump, I expect the markets are going to get worse before they get better. A recession in the US seems unavoidable and that’s likely to drag the S&P 500 lower. So far only a year’s worth of gains have been wiped out by recent market movements. There are still some lofty valuations out there and I assume that there is further to fall.

But eventually I am confident that these conditions will provide opportunities - no developed market has ever failed to bounce back from sell-offs like we’ve seen in recent weeks. So while I am painfully aware that on paper I am getting poorer, I am optimistic about the potential to scoop up some better value stocks in the future. I regretted not taking more decisive action when the markets crashed during the pandemic. Now is the chance to make up for previous missed opportunities.

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Graham

Everyone in this community has their own unique circumstances - risk tolerance, investment ability, time horizon, etc. So naturally, when speaking about how to navigate financial turbulence such as that which we are currently experiencing, I can only speak for myself.

Of course I have mixed feelings when markets are falling. But my primary reaction (hand on heart!) is that I’m excited about the opportunity to buy at cheaper levels.

That’s not to say that I’m happy about the reason markets are falling. That is a totally different question. This week, for example, I’m not happy at all that global trade is being disrupted by tariffs.

I’m reminded of this quote by Ben Rickert (Brad Pitt) in the Big Short:

If we're right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions. You know what I hate about ******* banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number - every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?

I don’t think the unemployment statistic is necessarily true, but I agree with the sentiment. I do try to remember that behind every ticker code, there are employees and families who depend on the success of that company. And the same goes for falling stock markets in general. Volatility does have terrible real-life consequences, even while it provides opportunities for those who can react to it intelligently.

Market panics almost by definition provide the greatest opportunities we ever get to make really attractive returns.

So when markets are falling, I’m getting more excited about the stock market, not less. I want to invest more, not less. Because my plan is to be fully invested nearly all of the time anyway, and I’d rather get in at lower prices than higher prices.

Of course a big part of the challenge is making investments that will stand the test of time, not end up as victims of the macro problems that are causing the panic in the first place.

My own portfolio is quite defensive. Here are my top 5 holdings, which together make up 85% of the portfolio, along with their total returns year-to-date:

• Volvere (LON:VLE) (33% of portfolio) (+20% year-to-date)

• Berkshire Hathaway (NYQ:BRK.B) (25% of portfolio) (+9% year-to-date)

• IG group (LON:IGG) (12% of portfolio) (minus 6% year-to-date)

• Next (LON:NXT) (10% of portfolio) (+18% year-to-date)

• Rightmove (LON:RMV) (5% of portfolio) (+3% year-to-date)

Volvere and Berkshire are defensive in the sense that they both hoard large amounts of cash on their balance sheets.

IG is defensive in the sense that they tend to benefit from market volatility, as it motivates customers to trade more frequently.

Some stocks that I am particularly interested to buy at the moment:

• Hostelworld (LON:HSW) - strongly positioned in a specific niche of the global travel market.

• Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (LON:DFCH) - its quality metrics should improve as this lender scales.

• Moonpig (LON:MOON) - market leader (much larger than competitors), well-known brand, reasonable valuation. A little risky due to their preference for buybacks rather than paying down debt.

• Cavendish (LON:CAV) - if the UK IPO market comes to life any time soon I believe that this could look very undervalued from current levels.

• International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) (I already own this) - I’d like to own more of this very cheap consumer lender.

• Pantheon International (LON:PIN) (I already own this) - I’d like to own more of this PE investor with a fabulous track record that trades at a steep discount to book value.

I agree that it can be tough watching a share portfolio fall in price every day. But if we are buying rather than selling, then I don’t think it matters. Ultimately I prefer to focus on the excitement of buying new bargains, rather than any disappointment that the existing portfolio hasn’t grown more in value yet.

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Roland

I haven’t enjoyed watching the market value of my portfolio fall in recent days. But I can say with complete truth that the main emotion I’m feeling is the desire to buy more shares in many of the companies I already own. I remain excited about the long-term opportunity I believe they offer.

Buying opportunities may also be opening up elsewhere in the market, but in situations like this I tend to focus on stocks I already own or have researched previously. I think familiarity and prior knowledge are a valuable aid when making decisions about valuation and opportunity against a volatile and uncertain market backdrop.

I aim to be (nearly) fully invested all of the time, so there’s limited cash in my portfolio to fund additional purchases right now. However, if current conditions continue for any length of time, I hope to be able to make some additional buys.

In terms of my own investing, the Stock In Focus portfolio fell by 4.5% in Q1 and has slid a further 4% since then (as of 7 April 25). I own most of the SIF shares in a portion of my personal portfolio, so my losses have been similar.

One recent highlight is the possible takeover offer for Bakkavor (LON:BAKK) from Greencore (LON:GNC). This has been supported by both boards and seems likely to go ahead, generating a nice profit for me to reinvest.

While there are some definite losers among the SIF stocks, two companies I expect to benefit financially during this volatile period are IG group (LON:IGG)  and TP Icap (LON:TCAP). Both provide financial trading services that tend to see strong demand during periods of market volatility.

IG is a SIF stock, but it’s also one of the largest and oldest holdings in my main personal portfolio, with a position size of around 8%.

In contrast to SIF’s shorter-term strategy, my main portfolio has a focus on long-term income and growth. The value of this portfolio has fallen by a mid-single digit percentage so far this year, but I haven’t (yet) seen any signs of dividend payouts coming under additional pressure.

I find that receiving cash income on schedule makes it far easier to ride out market slumps without making emotive decisions.

There’s always the risk of dividend cuts, of course. But it’s worth remembering that in general, dividends are far less volatile than share prices. A share price fall does not automatically mean that a company’s trading business is suffering from serious problems.

To sum up, I have not sold any shares as a result of recent events and am still excited about the potential of the shares I hold. If I do sell anything, it will only be to reinvest the cash in an alternative stock where I see greater opportunity.

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Keelan

The past few months have been a real eye-opener for me. As my UK portfolio took a hit, I’ve searched for more international opportunities further afield. There’s no doubt UK stocks are cheap, but I’ve learned the hard way that cheap doesn’t always mean an imminent rebound is due. So, for now, I’m watching and waiting.

The UK & European Markets: Bargain Basement, But Timing Is Important

UK stocks are dirt cheap, there’s no question about it. It’s tempting to go on a buying spree when valuations are this low, but I’ve seen too many names—like Jet2 (LON:JET2), JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) and Greggs (LON:GRG) —continue to slide despite their seemingly strong fundamentals. It’s a stark reminder of the old adage: don’t try to catch a falling knife.

I’ve got a long watchlist of UK stocks I’d love to own, but I’m holding off on most temptations for now. The key for me is seeing a shift in momentum. When sentiment starts to turn and companies show signs of executing strong turnaround strategies, that’s when I’ll be ready to dive in.

Europe is in a similar boat to the UK—tonnes of cheap stocks, but without a clear catalyst yet. At times, I feel like I want to build a portfolio of 100 European stocks as I'm finding enormous value everywhere. But the reality is, being cheap isn’t enough. Without momentum or a clear strategic turnaround in place, a stock can stay cheap for years.

So, just like in the UK, I’m waiting for a signal. Whether it’s earnings improving across the board, investor sentiment shifting, or companies making bold strategic moves (I expect there will be a few winners who emerge out of sector consolidation), I want to see some kind of confirmation before I commit more capital.

The US Market: A Waiting Game

On the flip side, I’ve felt that the US market has been too expensive for quite some time (I only had 10% of my portfolio in US shares over the past year, missing out on much of the rise). But things are starting to look a little more interesting now. I still think there’s more pain to come, which is why I’ve been cautious, but I did nibble at Micron Technology (NSQ:MU) and PayPal Holdings (NSQ:PYPL) last week. Maybe I jumped in too soon, but I see long-term potential in both.

Micron’s appeal is all about the demand for its memory products (DRAM) from data centres, which are fuelling the AI revolution. PayPal, meanwhile, has a massive buyback programme worth $20 billion that could help provide substantial support to its stock price. If prices remain around where they are currently—under $60 a share—the company will be able to buy back 1/3rd of its market cap.

Still, I’m not going all-in yet. My plan is to dollar-cost average into the US market over time. I'm not going to try and pinpoint the low as there is too much volatility in the US markets. History tells us that the US always bounces back, though, and when it does, it tends to do so in a big way.

One thing I’m watching closely is where Warren Buffett puts his $300 billion cash pile. He’s a master of finding value when markets are jittery, so if he starts making big moves in sectors I haven’t considered yet, that could be a strong signal for where to look next.

China: Surprisingly Resilient

Chinese stocks have long been a tricky space for investors, weighed down by years of underperformance and constant geopolitical risk. But until Monday, April 7th, China and the Hang Seng had been among the best-performing markets this year, largely shrugging off tariff talk. What’s been especially interesting is the resilience of China’s biggest domestic names — Alibaba Holding (NYQ:BABA), Baidu (NSQ:BIDU), JD.Com (NSQ:JD) — that had been holding up well despite global market volatility.

Right now, about 25% of my portfolio is in Chinese equities via US ADRs — and they’ve actually been my best performers over the past six months. It’s a deliberate but measured bet — I’m still wary of historical risks. That said, I think Trump’s potential new tariffs could ironically work in China’s favour in the long term, as Europe and other regions may lean closer to China. On top of that, there are big stimulus packages in the works that could give Chinese equities a serious boost in the next couple of years.

Safe Havens & Commodities

In uncertain times, safe-haven assets like gold and silver can be a lifeline. They’ve historically hedged against inflation and volatility — and I see them playing a bigger role in my portfolio moving forward.

I’ll be looking to build a position in gold and silver on any notable pullbacks. Some of the more interesting plays I’m watching include Greatland Gold (LON:GGP) and Metals Exploration (LON:MTL), both of which offer good exposure to gold. Additionally, I’m evaluating opportunities in Australia and Canada—both regions with strong mining sectors and favourable regulatory environments.

On the industrial side, I already have copper exposure through Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) and am considering BHP (LON:BHP), the world’s largest copper producer. I still see copper as a solid thematic play that could deliver strong returns over the coming years (unless the world does entirely come to a grinding halt).

Final Thoughts: Balancing Patience and Opportunity

If the past year has taught me anything, it’s that investing is as much about patience as it is about opportunity. Here’s what I’m taking away from my recent experiences:

• Cheap stocks can get cheaper – Valuation alone isn’t a buy signal; you need a reason for sentiment to change, otherwise, you risk buying value traps.

• Dollar-cost averaging is a good way to navigate uncertainty – The US market is still pricey, but scaling in gradually reduces the risk of mistiming.

• Buffett and large fund moves could be interesting signals – If Buffett and other large investors or institutions start deploying cash, I’ll be paying close attention as it could signal opportunities in certain overlooked sectors and potential signs that we’re near a bottom.

• China could surprise to the upside – Between stimulus and shifting trade relationships, there’s a case for a strong rebound in the next few years.

• Europe and the UK require patience – While the value is undeniable, I need to see momentum before shifting the portfolio focus. So, I have some cash sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of this.

• Commodities and safe havens offer stability – Gold and silver provide a hedge in uncertain times, and I’ll be increasing my exposure to these areas on weakness.

Investing is never easy, but moments like these—when sentiment is weak but opportunities are forming—are often the best times to position for the future.

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Mark

Like many other investors, 2025 has been a difficult time. My portfolio is typically invested in cheap stocks with conservative finances and asset-backing. Despite many of the businesses that I own having these qualities, this has not protected me from large sell-offs in my holdings. Sometimes, the falls have been due to economic conditions, such as the large profits warning for one of my “12 Stocks of Christmas” picks, IG Design (LON:IGR) . Often, it has just been persistent sellers driving the share price down far more than any deterioration of trading, such as with Billington Holdings (LON:BILN)  or Ingenta (LON:ING) .

I am a natural tinkerer. Short-term market volatility often provides an opportunity for me to enhance my returns. A stock may rise unexpectedly, making it overweight in my portfolio compared to the business valuation and outlook. This allows me to top slice and redeploy that capital into a new opportunity. If I sell shares in something that has gone up 20% on no news and buy something that has sold off by 20% with no discernible change in outlook, I have potentially generated a 40% uplift in expected returns, all things being equal. The hardest part of the current market malaise is that the sell-off is so widespread that nothing is going up to provide that opportunity. I tend to be fully invested, so the opportunity to take advantage of severe down days in the market is also limited.

In times like these, I take solace from three things:

The market is often wrong

With much of the selling driven by fear, a desire for liquidity, stop losses triggered, or leverage, the market becomes much less efficient at these times. I don’t think it is a coincidence that many of the biggest fallers on Monday were the most popular stocks amongst individual investors. For those willing to go against the crowd, there is often an opportunity to enhance returns by being a liquidity provider in times of trouble.

The selling is often at odds with the news flow. For example, Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) sold off over the last few days despite being the type of business that benefits from weaker economic conditions and a strong gold price. Today, management issued an ‘ahead’ statement, and the share price has (at least partially) recovered.

My expected returns are higher

It may seem strange when my portfolio is falling in value, but if the share prices have fallen less than any decline in the long-term returns of the businesses I own, my expected future returns have gone up, not down. The weighted forward P/E of my own portfolio (adjusted for cash or debt on the balance sheet of the companies) is now below five, and it drops to below four for the following year. Assuming that not all of these earnings forecasts collapse, it would seem that time is my friend at these valuations.

Cash-rich businesses have more options

If I invest in a conservatively financed business, particularly one with excess cash on the balance sheet, it can take advantage of current market conditions. Such businesses can repurchase their own stock, make bargain acquisitions, or pay out large dividends for me to reinvest. This doesn’t make every dividend-payer or company buying back stock a buy, but it is definitely a factor I consider more when buying something in current market conditions.