Now live: Multi-bagger webinar replay & extended slide deck
We were delighted to see record attendance last night for our multi-baggers webinar (1,055 of you joined us live, which is amazing!). Thank you so much to everyone who attended and participated in the comments, it was a really engaging evening for everyone. Apologies again for the slight technical hitch - thankfully, we've been able to edit the replay and clip that out.
As promised, I have now emailed all registrants a copy of the replay and extended slide deck. For those who didn't register, a replay is below. The extended slide deck can also be viewed here, and a full written copy of the research report can be found here.
Your future multi-bagger predictions
We'd love to hear what you thought of the webinar in the comments below, but we're mostly fascinated to hear your predictions.
Based on the 'blueprint' from the webinar, which stocks do you think have the potential to multi-bag in the future?
Let us know. We'll create a watchlist of the stocks below and keep an eye on its performance.
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.
66 comments
Belvoir (LON:BLV) and Property Franchise (LON:TPFG) appeared on my list if you use loosen the criteria. Now they are one
I like Elixirr International (LON:ELIX) They have recently acquired an AI business in the USA and have made 5 acquisitions since listing in 2020. High insider ownership, some director buying and fairly low institutional ownership. Did do 250% and has dropped back since but still double IPO price. Looks to be thinly traded tho
Knights group (LON:KGH) looks promising. Scores highly on SR,Quality and Value. Revenues, margins, roce,earnings ps and profit growing. Making acquisitions and insider David Beech owns 22%. Price did touch 500p or so but a profit warning in March 2022 because of the Omicron variant meant the sp collapsed. Looks to be a good recovery play and if can hit 500p again would be a 5 bagger
The niggle in the back of my head is that 10 is such a small number of stocks from which to draw so many conclusions with such confidence.
@Indie - it's a fair point as, yes, it is indeed a small sample. If you want to read more on the subject I would recommend "100 Baggers" by Christopher Mayer. It's an easy read. He comes to many of the same conclusions as our study.
Thanks, Ed. I’ll add it to the basket with One Up on Wall Street.
One of the great hallmarks of Stockopedia is its large data studies, whether profit warnings or tipster success or anything else. (Seen all your films - love your work!)
This is my shortlist with a score assigned to things like insider ownership, RNS, acquisitions etc. Those in light blue have a score of 4 or more based on those unquantifiable data. I've assigned a score too for the criteria highlighted in Ed's video and is sorted on that score. Nexteq, the former Anexo looks interesting with Stocko giving it a price target of 153% above current price with high insider ownership, low institutional owners and margins increasing and director buys. Some really interesting companies on that list headed by Renold.
Strange that this article about Multi-baggers turned up in today’s Sunday Times
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/art...
Hope you can read it okay.
Great webinar! I created a screen based on Ed’s findings and initially had no hits, but by relaxing the Price to Book Value metric down to 1, I do get a hit for Billington Holdings (LON:BILN) which I intend to look at further.
Billington Holdings (LON:BILN) is very cyclical. It was 500p in 2007 then 38p in 2014. Operating margins are low. A lot will depend on China and the world economy.
Yes doesn’t look like a multi bagger at this entry point..looks a decent share in its own right though. Will tweet the screens dimensions in line with subsequent webinar in this area.
Really good presentation. Very well done to Ed and the Team.
A bit of fun with a healthy dose of confirmation bias as I hold the shares mentioned.
Given a 'normal' investment climate I would suggest that the following have the potential to double from their current share price in the next 3 to 5 years and some such as Volex (LON:VLX) and Avingtrans (LON:AVG) could do much better.
One or two are recovery plays and are unlikely to display many of the characteristics referred to by Ed, but the current share price relative to their potential is the allure.
Some have greater potential as bid candidates, notably M&C Saatchi (LON:SAA) Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP) and I think Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)
Volex (LON:VLX)
Avingtrans (LON:AVG)
Belvoir (LON:BLV)
Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)
Card Factory (LON:CARD)
Jet2 (LON:JET2)
M&C Saatchi (LON:SAA)
Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP)
Pressure Technologies (LON:PRES)
Ed, great presentation. I created a screen on a looser basis from your summary parameters, exported to a sheet, and assigned a value of 1 to other criteria and summed them to get a score for each stock, hopefully an easier way to get a decent ranking for each stock without having to adjust the screen each time. Some interesting results. I reckon Brickability (LON:BRCK) and Good Energy (LON:GOOD) from the list below could multibag.
I was looking at Good Energy (LON:GOOD) yesterday. Puzzled as to how something with such a high Quality score could also have high Earnings Manipulation risk. The real deal or too good to be true? I don’t have the balance sheet capability to tell. Any thoughts from the wise collective would be welcome.
Has 14% total insider ownership, high institutional ownership and making acquisitions, all key attributes of a multi bagger
I also like Brickability (LON:BRCK) and think it’ll do well if/when it takes off.
Same with BRCK
Excellent article. Will be looking closely at my portfolio to see if the companies have the right traits.
Thanks for an excellent webinar Ed. I’m going to wait for the follow on content before I comment on potential multibaggers that might either be in my portfolio or on my watchlist. For now, my main takeaway is a behavioural one, reinforcing the need to hold onto one’s winners as long as the investment thesis remains intact, even if at times, they might seem expensive.
If they've delisted, we don't have any current financial data. As Rusty2 says though - you can use the Print button to load historical PDFs on archived dates.
Interesting, but it's a real shame that companies that disappeared from the market in the period 2013-23 did so without a trace. This is a major bugbear of mine in that the historic data just completely disappears with the listing. Why is this? When a company gets acquired why can the historic data not be retained? Try finding a historic share price chart for the original listing of ARM Holdings pre-2016 for instance. I'm sure there is one somewhere in some internet backwater but Google does a pretty lousy job.
Of course, ARM was a major multi-bagger. I remember buying it for sub 40p in the midst of the tech crash and thinking I was dreadfully clever selling out at 120p when it looked expensive. But then, ARM always looked expensive. And as we all know it was acquired by Softbank in 2016 for £17 per share. Idiot!
We do have the delisted stocks, but they aren't available in the main site search (we need to solve that).
ARM is here - https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
There is a workaround. You can search for them in Portfolios by clicking "Add Stock".
We do have the delisted stocks, but they aren't available in the main site search (we need to solve that).
ARM is here - https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
There is a workaround. You can search for them in Portfolios by clicking "Add Stock".
Ed,
Just to be clear, my comment about lack of data history extends to all financial websites I use, not just Stockopedia. However, using the workaround you suggest to take a look back at three of my holdings that were taken over this year, none of them have any financial data - the Financial Summary is completely empty. So, when reviewing the year, I can't look back at the fundamentals that lead up to the takeover to learn any lessons for the future. Take EMIS Group, I'd love to be able to remind myself what the ROCE and Margins looked like over the past few years, but even though it only recently de-listed, all that data has disappeared. So I'd have to resort to reading the last Annual Report and RNS'es to calculate the numbers for myself.
It seems such a waste, particularly for exercises such as the study you have performed on multi-baggers.
You can select print on the Stock Report, then select a date and that should have the information. Here is Emis: https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws...
You can select print on the Stock Report, then select a date and that should have the information. Here is Emis: https://s3.eu-west-1.
Thanks. Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me - it takes me to an error page. I get the idea, but I still think it’s poor that data is actually deleted when a company delists. There’s nothing in the Financial Summary history that relies on current data. Why not just freeze the StockReport and remove it from screening? - seems fairly straightforward to me.
BTW the method outlined by Ed i.e. Searching for the company and adding it to a portfolio to access the old StockReport does not work in the App on my iOS devices. It seems this is only possible using a Desktop version or using a mobile web browser.
Ed you follow a 90/70 rule as I recall. Buy at SR90 and sell at SR70. How many of the multi baggers hit SR70, for how long and would you have sold?
You can check on the Stockreport. I did have a look yesterday, all will have dropped below SR70. Some were not that highly rated by Stockopedia, such as Burford Capital (LON:BUR, YouGov (LON:YOU)
JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) has a fairly consistent high rating. Others seems fairly mixed, if you sold at SR70, you would have been stopped for long periods.
In that case the rules based approach of SR90/70 would be at odds with the retention of businesses that multibag.
Yes. As Ed, showed most of these stocks had significant falls from peaks, one was around 90%. Falls in share price usually trigger falls in the SR., probably why the top ranked shares out perform. I don't think the 90/70 rule fits holding shares for 10 years or more, than is more coffee can strategy.
However as many have not done well in the last few years, it can be a good idea to sell, wish I had sold all my Burford Capital (LON:BUR) at 2000p, holding onto winners does not always work. You could say the same for Boohoo (LON:BOO) and ASOS (LON:ASC), when to sell is tricky.
I think Ed commented on the webinar that his own style isn't particularly suited to multi-bagging, or something along those lines. One qualitative factor in multi-bagging (or not) must be the investor!
Thanks Ed to you and the team for this research and webinar. Really useful insights.
Looking at the 13 (I think) suggestions from subscriber posts below, and thanks to them all:
I hold ME International (LON:MEGP) , Warpaint London (LON:W7L) which I rate as potential multi-baggers together with Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) and Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS) which I am less confident about and currently consider as shorter term positions.
I have held Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) and Jet2 (LON:JET2) in the past and for whatever the reason (probably needed the money!) sold which I now regret. They are now on my 'do more research' list together with Volex (LON:VLX) , Cerillion (LON:CER) and Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.) which I have looked at in the past together with XPS Pensions (LON:XPS) which is a new one to me.
My only current multi-bagger holding is 4imprint (LON:FOUR) .
I would be interested in the same study on the US market, a quick look shows Apple (NSQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NSQ:MSFT) around 11 bags, NVIDIA (NSQ:NVDA) about 150 bags, Tesla (NSQ:TSLA) around 78 bags,
I will suggest 3; one on a low PE and the other 2 on moderate PEs
1.Jet2 (LON:JET2) on a forward PE of 7 - Previous multi-bag form loved by travellers, but unloved by the market.
2. Warpaint London (LON:W7L) median PE with operational gearing and export sales scalability,
3. Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.) median PE with operational gearing with a clever low asset rental model.
I own all 3 and will confess to finding it frustratingly difficult to predict which of my various holdings will become winners, let alone multi-bag! Always surprises in the stock market!
A great outcome would simply be that there are multi-bagger learnings and insights that improve overall portfolio performance.
To add to my earlier suggestion of Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) for further research I'm going to also propose ME International (LON:MEGP) , not small cap but not long since it was one. This weekend as a starting point I think I'll run my portfolio and watchlists through Ed's quantitative indicators and see how each of my holdings fare.
[I hold Ramsdens and ME International]
Hi Ian,
I agree with your 3 suggestions. As you know I already own Warpaint London (LON:W7L) and Ashtead Technology Holdings (LON:AT.). I've been wanting to buy Jet2 (LON:JET2) since the start of November. However, due to me recently going 100% back into the stock market this has left me with no more surplus cash to invest. I would also add XPS Pensions (LON:XPS) to the list of possible multi baggers, which I hold.
I hold all 4, so I hope you are right.
David - As of your post last week, I now hold a starter position in XPS Pensions (LON:XPS), but I haven't enough background yet to have the conviction to suggest it will multi-bag. Thanks again for bringing to my attention.
Tein - Yes agree about the need for more research. For interest ME International (LON:MEGP) is one of my largest holdings and Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX) is a smaller position. Interesting thought similarities, that may be confirmation bias! Ian
Franchise Brands (LON:FRAN) Looks interesting to me
The Stocko ranks arent good - but I suspect thats due to them making a large aquisition.
Fits most other metrics though and the management team is proven.
Also its consumer and essential but not glamourous.
Dear Ed, you have a very natural and engaging presentation style, helped obviously by in-depth knowledge of investing, and by your understandable evangelism and passion for Stockopedia. The multi-bagger presentation was perfectly timed given how tough things have been, a dose of optimism right now is just the ticket!
I know also that Megan, Lawrence and others will have done loads to make this happen so thanks to them also for this and previous presentations. Finally it's good that other great articles are topical at the same time, Mark Simpson's article on exceptional returns for example.
I've been interested to start comparing the traits in the presentation with those in other screens and reference materials, (including '100 Baggers' by Christopher Mayer which you featured (also it's a good audio listen), and the Alta Fox Capital study) - financial health, competitive advantage, room to grow and invested owners/ management are traits worth finding in combination.
As you've asked for it Lawrence I'll stick my neck out and highlight one company that meets a lot of the quantitative measurements from the webinar and some qualitative too, Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX), [I hold]. I'd want to think further about it's multi-bagging potential before quadrupling my holding but it's a reassuring screening outcome nonetheless.
Interesting that you mention the Alta Fox multi-bag study from 2020. It contained 16 UK listed companies that had previously multi-bagged. Because multi-baggers have always intrigued me, back in Oct 20 I set up a dummy Stocko portfolio with a nominal £1K in each of the 16 companies to track their future progress.
I just looked again and my dummy Alta Fox portfolio is down £7.2K from inception with the best company up 14% (Yougov) and the worst down 90% (Frontier Developments). 15 of the 16 are currently showing a loss. Of course the stock market has not been easy in the intervening 3 years, but even allowing for this the 45% portfolio loss from previously successful UK companies is a bit of a shocker.
One could argue that the 16 were grossly overpriced at that stage of the market cycle or prep-haps that as a group that they were unlucky. Ed and the team might be able to use their historical 2013 metrics (pre-multi bag) to 2020 for the 16 companies to determine their characteristics and whether any further lessons can be drawn?
That's an interesting piece of research iwright7. It might be interesting to also build a screen using the quantitative traits featured in the webinar and measure 'the 16' against it at the time of inception and now.
I'm interested that the Stockopedia research (as one might expect) offers more quantitative insight than other research, but which can be added to that quantitative and qualitative observation already available.
For interest I include below a screenshot of the Alta Fox 16 company previous multi-bagger portfolio I created in Oct 2020. I see Games Workshop (LON:GAW) which is the only 1 of the16 own, has crept back into profit this morning ....
Its a eyesight test too!
Yes some have not done so well, I do hold some of them. In the last 3 years there have been some 10 baggers, Yu (LON:YU.) is one, there must have been others. Timing is key. Some previous 10 baggers such as Boohoo (LON:BOO) and ASOS (LON:ASC) have lost all their bags. I think the UK market is less consistent than the US where some stocks there just keep on multi bagging.
Lack of technology was mentioned by Ed, but is this not because ours get taken over by foreign companies?
My interpretation of the Alta Fox research was not to pick multi-baggers going foreward but to try and gain insights into what characteristics a top performing share has. In much the same way as Ed and the team were trying to do.
I may have misinterpreted you point and if I have apologies.
I still own Games Workshop (LON:GAW) and Bioventix (LON:BVXP) in the list and have owned Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) and Boohoo (LON:BOO) (for my sins) in the past.
BTW to see the list more easily right-click and open the image in a new tab.
Regards
Michael
Micheal,
You are right that the Alta Fox dataset contained past multibaggers. These became more expensive over time and the PE multiple increased. They are likely to have had competitive moats which I would hope would continue for a while, but the UK Alta Oct 20 to date multi bag group have weakened considerably. During the last 3 years most lost money and none have bagged again.
Part of this weakness reflects the poor market conditions, part a swing from growth to value, earnings and other issues. Perhaps some of the companies in the portfolio will become 100 baggers yet?
My suggestion is Warpaint London (LON:W7L)
* WARPAINT LONDON PLC - RESULTS FOR YEAR ENDING 31 DECEMBER
2023
NOW EXPECTED TO BE AHEAD OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS
Thanks Ed, Lawrence, Megan, and all the team involved. This must have been a huge team effort. I have returned to Stocko recently having had around a year away, partly due to work (we were completing a difficult acquisition including competition clearance which was a challenge but we got there…) & also as I had too many investor subs. I continued to listen to Pauls podcasts & now have 2 subs only including this one. Paul is an inspiration!. I managed to listen to this live and think it was fantastic. Full compliments to Ed which made an hour feel like 15 minutes.
The other good thing with this is it helps you “play” with screens. Late last night I set up my own multi bagger screen (eg mkt cap 40m to 500m; stock rank 70; quality 70; value 50; momentum 54; then also with sales, PE, ROCE, net gearing metrics. Now I feel confident to play with screens where I hadn’t a clue before. I played with benchmarks to vary the stocks. Gave a list of 48. I never listened to the masterclasses before but will now. I also never read the books so have bookmarked the Profit Survival Guide.
So for me this wasnt only a great session but it also showcased brilliant elements of Stocko. I am hooked for life now! Thanks again to all the team.
Many thanks Stocko team for a thoroughly enjoyable presentation! Family commitments meant I missed the live event but I happily enjoyed the video today. Very insightful and well presented Ed!
Ed - you are a fantastic presenter & make ‘investing in stocks’ such a fun, interesting process. Please continue these kinds of videos!
what happened to the Stocko stock club where you would pitch stocks & then buy : sell and we could see the results?
Thanks for the kind words!
Basically the banking system (and regulatory system) is stacked against investment clubs. HSBC closed our banking account with no notice. So we ended up brokered, but unbanked. We had to shut the club down. We were all so disappointed as it was really fun as all our staff were investing together. Not only that, but it seeded some great editorial for subscribers. We haven't been able to find a bank that will let us open an investment club account... we've tried every single one.
Have you tried Monzo Ed?
What about a community account. I don't know the rules now , but I had a investment club and we used a community account. It was over 10 years ago though.
Have you thought about approaching Burnley Savings & Loans?
I'm aware that they cant offer current accounts as such at the moment but there is nothing Mr Fishwick likes more than ruffling the feathers and getting under the skin of the big banks ... he doesn't mind a bit of publicity either.
Hi Lawrence/Ed.
“Multibaggers were 8x more likely to report “ahead” than “behind” expectations “.
Given the importance of this to long term outperformance is it possible to incorporate a traffic light metric/scale to the Stock Report?
ie below/behind expectations would be red, meeting/matching amber and ahead would be green.
Hi Ed. Ran through your screen and with only a little dilution of criteria managed to return Celtic (LON:CCP) . Must be a certainty for half of Glasgow
Celtic - ha! Probably doesn't qualify on the qualitative criteria!
Thanks Lawrence. I hope you and Ed can sort out why I didn't receive the notification email so it's good to be ale to access the replay. It seems it was a great success and Ed is a really great presenter so I don't want to miss out on any other presentations
Hi Lawrence,
Firstly excellent presentation yesterday. I'm a big fan of Zulu and beyond Zulu by Jim Slater, excellent books that have stood the test of time.
Here goes my suggestions for Multi baggers at some point in the next 10 years -
1. Cerillion (LON:CER)
2. Beeks Financial Cloud (LON:BKS)
3. Plexus Holdings (LON:POS)
4. Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP)
5. Team17 (LON:TM17)
6. Volex (LON:VLX)
Cheers
Andy
Andy - thanks for these suggestions
Definitely agree re Cerillion (LON:CER) . This is now starting to win bigger contracts, which is a big vote of confidence in the product. I hold.
I agree about Cerillion (LON:CER) I have held for a number of years.
Agree Cerillion (LON:CER) is an excellent company but on 28 forward PE you aren’t going to get much PE multiple improvement, so to 10 bag it will likely need to achieve 10x current earnings.
Thanks Andy,
I also hold Cerillion and Volex - and am "hopeful"
Your list is lacking consumer though - and they seemed to be the big winners.
Who knows if in the next 10 years consumer will dominate again - but Id want a couple in my "bag" of potential "multibaggers"
Thanks Ed. I did not receive any invitation for this. Just checked my spam folder and not there either. I do regularly get stocko emails, so email details are correct. Disappointing, but good to get access to video.
OzzieTom - apologies about that - we'll have a look at our emails and ensure you are invited the next time. In the meantime do check out the recording.
Thanks. Excellent presentation. Looking forward to follow up master classes