I normally type up lengthy year end reviews, but have decided this year to make a video instead.

It's a warts & all review of how 2021 unfolded for me, and what I've learned from my mistakes this year. I'll aim to do this every year from now on.

I hope you find this interesting! The slides are also copied below, if you don't have time to watch the video.

(I've just set up a vimeo channel, which is vimeo.com/paulypilot for my shares videos)

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EDIT:

Something I forgot to mention in the video, was that my hedging strategy (shorting US indices when I'm nervous about the market overall) was a complete disaster in Q4 2021. It's worked really well in the past, especially in early 2020. However, this time, in Q4 2021, the nightmare scenario unfolded - my geared longs (UK small-mid caps) plummeted, generating heavy losses. At the same time, the US market soared to new highs, thus incurring heavy losses on my "hedges" (short positions on US indices).

Going forwards, I think the better idea is to just de-gear, rather than faffing around with so-called hedges, especially ones which don't have a direct correlation to UK small caps.

End of edit.

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Boohoo

  • Disastrous share price performance, but I remain of the view this is likely to be a much larger business in 5-years.
  • Sector sell-off: Asos has fallen similar %, and other eCommerce businesses also de-rated (e.g. AO.com). Upside for sector in 2022-23 (possibly)?
  • 1, or 2-year growth rates?
  • Problems in 2021 look fixable - supply chain related, especially outbound freight cost. Overseas markets declined, due to long delays in delivery (7-10 days)
  • Increased competition
  • Overshot on downside in my view

QUIZ

  • Strong turnaround underway - stores now trading at/near pre-pandemic sales, but with greatly reduced costs (on turnover rents after pre-pack administration)
  • Last man standing with retail stores
  • Sees 2-year boom in special occasionwear
  • Experienced mgt, and long-standing online operations
  • Strong balance sheet with net cash
  • Overseas expansion via franchisees
  • Tiny market cap
  • Family still hold c.50%, and motivated to turn it around



Redde Northgate (REDD)

  • Superb recent results
  • Strong balance sheet
  • Sector tailwinds
  • Low PER & big dividend yield



Revolution Bars (RBG)

  • Turbulent during pandemic (2 placings at 20p =…

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