Good morning!

Further to Friday's report on Chapel Down (OFEX:CDGP) I tracked down my nearest stockist (Waitrose), and we had a family Scrabble and English wine tasting evening last night. The overall verdict (FWIW) was that we thought the Flint & Bacchus white wines were pleasant, but not something we'd go out of our way to buy. Not a bargain at £10 per bottle either. Although the 33% shareholder discount (if you prove ownership of 2,000+ shares) would bring it down to a more acceptable price.

However, the Chapel Down champagne was delicious, and to my unsophisticated taste seemed just as good as most mainstream French champagnes. So a very real contender, at £20 per bottle.

We also sampled the Chapel Down beer, Curious Brew, which was excellent, I thought.

Part of the problem seems to be that they are hidden in the "Rest of World" section of Waitrose, with no prominence, and very little stock on display. So I would say Chapel Down's main challenge is to promote its wines better, and persuade retailers to display them more prominently & with greater shelf space allocation.

Anyway, on to today, and I see at least 3 bad situations, looking at the top fallers table.


Share price: 124p (down 45% today)
No. shares: 142.1m shares
Market cap: £176.2m

Trading update (profit warning) - the share price is down a brutal 45% today, so that immediately indicates that this is a serious profit warning. A regular profit warning usually sees a share price down 30%, and a mild profit warning is more like 10% down.

The company describes its activities as marketing services, which seem to be based mainly around print. So mailshots, and similar things, I imagine.

The group has a 31 Jul 2016 year end. For the first 8 months of this year, things seem to have gone alright:

Trading overall in the eight months ended 1 April 2016 has continued to be broadly in line with management expectations, with Group revenue running approximately 5% ahead of the equivalent period last year.  

Unfortunately though, storm clouds are gathering:

However, the outlook for the final quarter, and for the following financial year, has deteriorated. noted within our half-year results, the current global economic uncertainty is leading to greater caution in the allocation of marketing budgets. Recently, and within the digital segment…

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