Small Cap Value Report (9 Mar 2016) - LAKE, SRT, PNA, TRB, PMP, FOUR, ATQT, TND

In reply to post #123449

DOTD - yes indeed, I was very displeased to see the large Director sales at this company. I believe in following the money - they know the company better than any of us, so if they're ditching their shares, then I will follow suit. So I sold mine yesterday & this morning.

They included that ridiculous line about "satisfying Institutional demand", which is just laughable. Do they take us for fools?! They sold because they would rather have the cash, than hold the shares. The fact that there happened to be a willing Institutional buyer(s) is not in any way supportive. I'd say the Institution(s) are mugs for buying shares from people who know the company best.

Regards, Paul.

Hi Paul I would be interested in your thoughts on the ATTRAQT (LON:ATQT) results if you get the chance. I know you have said in the past you have met management and you were impressed with them.

Hi Paul, thought I'd get in early - if you get the chance I'd be really interested in your opinion on Penna Consulting (LON:PNA), they've been a takeover target for a while (part of the reason I own shares in them) and now Adecco want to buy Penna for 365p a share. Would be really interested in everyone's view on this - is it a good deal for shareholders or could there even be higher counter offers - though apparently any other offer would have to be 15% higher to be considered. Finncap have a current target of 390p.

Thanks, James

The RNS from SRT seems to be a very optimistic view of the quite challenging process to get the winnings from this supply agreement - first of all theyve got to get the large asian country to sign off on each double stage. Mr Tucker is a very likeable chap but he has given us very good reason to be sceptical of the company's hoped for achievements in real time.

Hi Paul

I would be very interested on your thoughts re no competing bid being considered unless it is at least 15% higher than today's agreed £3.65 bid.

If say a bid of £4 was received then PNA directors would then seem to me to be acting against the interests of shareholders in not considering it.

Thoughts welcome,

Thank you, Martin

In reply to post #123467

Hi Martin & Jimbojames,

I don't really have anything further to add on Penna Consulting (LON:PNA) as it's not a situation I know very well.

I suggest poring over the detail in today's announcement, if you have a financial interest in it. I don't, so have better use for my time, to be blunt!! ;-)

Well,I say that, only if you consider walking 2 unruly yorkshire terriers to a grooming shop to be a good use of time! (I've been roped into helping out a friend whose arthritis is playing up today!). What a glamorous life!!!

Regards, Paul.

Hi Paul, interested in your thoughts on results out this morning from Interquest (LON:ITQ) - they received a muted reception, although in line with expectations and with a good rise in the dividend. EPS (diluted) up 12%, net debt down 28% (to £6m so still quite high for a £30m market cap), dividends up 20% (2.5p to 3p for the year)

The results aren't on Stockopedia yet for some reason, you have to go to Investegate to find them. The business looks quite well-positioned to me, especially in the specialist recruitment areas in which they operate. This bit caught my eye:

"It is increasingly hard to identify a specialist resource, be they contract or permanent, who is either immediately available or actively seeking a new role.
It is more likely that the ideal candidate is currently engaged on an assignment or focused on the permanent role that they already have. At InterQuest we invest in building long standing relationships with prospective candidates, building trust and a clear picture of what their ideal next move would be in order for us to accurately match them to their next role.
This form of soft headhunting is an effective and proven recruitment technique at InterQuest and we are only able to do this through our focus on specialist skills."

I forget whether you hold - I think you felt the Balance Sheet was unduly poor? It's true that once you knock off goodwill and intangibles, net assets are negligible - £3.5m or so.

In reply to post #123455

Paul I did mention some time ago about large director sales in dotDigital (LON:DOTD), I did sell out around 45p which was a bit early but now does not look too bad. Its hard to judge sometimes on sales, some shares tank soon after like Solid State (LON:SOLI) but others keep on going up. Generally I find director sales a bit premature which is not surprising, they know well before the market usually does. Yes I think Solid State (LON:SOLI) used that excuse as well.

Paul,

We were discussing CAMB and car dealerships the other day. I notice Vertu have got away a £35m placing this morning to fund acquisitions at roughly a 7-10% discount. As per usual, small shareholders were excluded and diluted by ~15%. Clearly the Vertu directors are still extremely bullish on the UK car market and not least bit worried by the prospect of Brexit.

Also, good full year results from Portmeirion. It looks like a fair bit of earnings growth has come from positive currency effects with a third of sales in the US. Only 3% of sales are to EU.On the downside, sales to South Korea dropped 18%. A nice 13% increase in the dividend and some heart warming words too:

The Board is committed to a progressive dividend policy; we believe that this is what our shareholders expect of us, why they bought Portmeirion shares and why they continue to hold them. We aim to maintain a sustainable and fair level of dividend cover and to increase our dividends whenever our results, cash balances and prudent views of future trading and business investment needs allow us so to do. Our consistent policy is to increase the interim dividend each year by the same percentage as the final dividend of the preceding year, subject of course to prevailing conditions.

Good luck with those dogs! Si

Paul, re Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) David Stredder was at the AGM, I don't know if you heard his interview about it? Also think they will be at Mello soon.

Hi Paul, any views on the interims yesterday from St. Ives (Lon: SIV) ? Many thanks.

In reply to post #123470

Hi Paul

Albeit I asked a question which related to the situation at PNA, I was trying, primarily, to raise another more general point.

Paraphrasing the text in the RNS, it states

"...the various irrevocable undertakings from Penna Directors and others will only cease to be binding if a third party makes a competing offer at a value which exceeds the value of the cash consideration per Penna Share under the Offer by 15 per cent. or more per Penna Share."

Given the bureaucracy around a bid, I would have no issue with setting (say) a 5% threshold for a higher bid but 15% is IMHO difficult to justify. 

In agreeing this condition, I do wonder if there is a general issue here as to whether, in agreeing this condition, the PNA BoD are acting in the best interest of shareholders, and indeed the extent to which the BoD are actually obliged to do so.

Thoughts welcome.

Regards, Martin

Yeah, good results from Portmeirion (LON:PMP) today (as expected) although shame about the decline in South Korea. This is just the kind of company I like - paying dividends out of excess cash (not borrowings); very solid balance sheet; very strong brands etc. Not something that will double in a matter of months but (hopefully) I nice get rich slowly share.

Many thanks Paul for covering ATTRAQT (LON:ATQT) as requested on what looks like a very busy day for you.

I took a look at Attraqt after reading your first few paragraphs, and decided to take a small position in it today. I don't disagree with any of your comments, but on a 3-5 year view I think there is a reasonable chance of a very decent profit and a relatively small chance of a wipe out. I liked the idea of being able to buy in at a huge discount to the institutional placing too, especially when there hasn't been any bad news to justify it. I can't imagine what they were expecting. OTOH, you might get a chance to buy at half yesterday's price since the losses will be higher in 2016 as they spend their new cashpile on growth. Thanks. 

I do hold Portmeirion long term and am pleased with results. I also bought product from them recently. I was very pleased with customer service including the handling of a return where I had the choice of my own courier or their courier at a reasonable price. It felt high quality all the way through and made me even more pleased to hold their shares long term

In reply to post #123500

If the buyer insisted on that condition (fair enough frankly, how frustrating to go through all the due diligence to be gazumped by someone offering 5% more...), do you think they should have refused point blank to talk to them?

Paul good afternoon.
Ref TND ......not your favourite company.
I think referring to the company as a distribution business does the company a disservice. Just like PM at DART the company always talks the business down ( I am told by them because the big accounts come at them for discount s etc if all in going well).
Pension issue not discussed at all.
I think in 4 weeks you will get the numbers for last year and the picture will be fully explained. You say 1.4 million was made last year but the 580 k had been taken off the top the year before.
With the two new companies (pro-rider) making 300k a year and ESC making 800k before any savings this means the group should make 2.5 million a year which is EPS 55p a share.
Now whilst you may not like it the attraction is it trades on under 4x earnings and after the fall probably about 2.25 x current year.
The bit I agree with you about is why is it listed? That's historic but I feel it could attract a bidder from the private sector who by removing the costs of listing 250k pa and trimming the Directors pay 800k you have a company that would be making 3.5 to 4.00 million a year.
At 200p a share ( double current price) that's 9 million plus debt 6 gives an outlay of 15 million less assets ( property etc) of 8 million giving 3.5/4.00 million profit on a cost of under 8 million.
Far too cheap and I seriously think it will go private in 2 years maximum.

With reference to Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) here is an extract from http://www.stockopedia.com/content/mark-slater-interview-a-masterclass-in-growth-investing-123686/#sthash.iLTpnxiq.dpuf

When there are problems you either sell or you have to do more. When we engage with management it’s typically because there is a problem. It could be a simple thing like they have suggested a new incentive scheme that we think is crazy, in which case we will say so. We have a reasonable track record of engaging with them and winning.

If the problem is more fundamental than that, and things really go wrong - such as a massive profit warning - then we are normally minded to get out. Sometimes you don’t want to get out because the price is too low and sometimes you think it can be fixed. Those are the situations where you then engage and become potentially much more active. We try and avoid it really, but if you have to do it you have to do it. Sometimes you have a position that you simply can’t sell because there is no market. In that case you just have to get it right as best you can.

hi Paul no idea if you still get notifications for old SCVP comments but i just went through 4imprint (LON:FOUR) accounts, last four years, and im not impressed at all. the balance sheet is as you say excellent with minimal intangibles, plenty of NTAV, no debt and a nice cash pile.

the problem here is the cash flow. in 2012 they actually made an operating loss. then again in 2014 free cash flow was actually negative. aside from these two years, FCF is no-where near reported net profit, its all over the place each year and in fact FCF barely covers the dividend (2015 FCF £10.6m, dividend £9.6m)

so whilst they report record revenues and profits each year the cash flow tells a different story.

i appreciate you probably wont want to go back over the figures now but maybe when you cover them next you can add your comments regarding this ?