Good afternoon!

Apologies for my running late today, but there are plenty of interesting things to report on, so here goes.


Goals Soccer Centres (LON:GOAL)

Share price: 133p (down 13% today)
No. shares: 58.5m
Market cap: £77.8m

Profit warning - checking the archive here, I reported on 9 Sep 2015 here when GOAL shares dropped 20% on a profit warning. The company publishes a range of estimated current year profit, which is extremely helpful, and something that all companies should do. It takes the guesswork out of their profit warnings.

So, last time the company indicated that calendar 2015 was heading for the £9.3m to £9.8m range, for profit before tax. Today this has been lowered again;

As previously reported at the Interim results on 9 September 2015, trading in the UK business over the summer holiday period had been challenging.
Whilst we have made progress since 9 September, delivering week-on-week sales improvements, the speed of this recovery has not been at the level anticipated. In view of this, the Board now anticipates that profit before tax for the current financial year will be in the range of £8.2m to £8.6m, predicated on the absence of adverse weather conditions.

The mid-point of the profit ranges given, has fallen 12.0% from £9.55m to £8.4m. Whilst that may not sound a huge amount, bear in mind that most of the year has already gone. So it's rather concerning to see another material drop in forecast profits this late in the year.

My opinion - last time I reported on this share, at 155p per share, I was beginning to get interested, but it was actually the discussion with readers in the comments section below that article which put me off, so it's worth recapping on those comments here.

It's all very well blaming the weather all the time, but this is Britain - we have erratic weather.

GOAL remains nicely profitable cash generative, so it's worth a look I think. There's also the takeover potential. The main downside seems to me that expansion is so capital-intensive, and slow. Also possibly the popularity of this service may be waning somewhat? Two profit warnings in rapid succession suggests that all is not well, but the shares have come down a lot in price, so maybe disappointment is now in the price, and it could be a good…

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