Good morning, it's Paul here with Friday's SCVR.

It's quiet for results/TUs today, so I'll circle back to a couple of stragglers that I didn't have time to look at earlier this week.

Estimated time of completion is 1pm

Edit at 12:26 - today's report is now finished.

I'm pleased to see that Elon Musk has followed up on my suggestion, to take advantage of the crazy rise in share price at $TSLA to do a fundraising of c.$2bn. Apparently this is a fortnight after he had confirmed that there wasn't going to be a fundraising. He gets away with murder, doesn't he! Anyway, it's most pleasing to note that he obviously reads the SCVR ;-)

This is a point worth emphasising actually, about fundraisings in times of share price strength. Any company that has a soaring share price, and a stretched valuation, should take advantage of that to do a top-up fundraising. Bull markets present a golden opportunity to fix balance sheets, pay off debt, and protect a business in advance of the next recession.

Yet hardly any management teams seem to anticipate the economic cycle. This is very strange. Why is it, that in the sphere of finance/economics, humans keep making the same mistakes without learning from them? Despite events following very clear cycles - both in terms of the stock market, and the economy as a whole.

Conditions now are looking increasingly similar to the boom conditions in 1998-99, and 2006-7. In both those times, I remember stock market valuations becoming very high, especially for growth companies. Optimism seemed boundless, people who warned about trouble ahead were ignored (because they had been consistently wrong for at least 5 years, so people stopped listening - even though we all knew that we were in a bubble!). Corporates and individuals were borrowing too much, leading to inflated asset prices, over-investment, and over-consumption.

Then something happens to prick the bubble, and economies slide into recession, stock markets tumble, and lenders start withdrawing credit.

I can't help feeling that we're nearing the end of this current bull cycle. Maybe another year or two before it all blows up? It feels like that to me.

Trifast (LON:TRI)

Share price: 166p (down 4%, at 08:36)
No. shares: 123.9m
Market cap: 205.7m

Trading update (mild profit warning)

International specialist in the design, engineering, manufacture and…

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

or Unlock with your email

Already have an account?
Login here