Small Cap Value Report (Fri 19 July 2019) - DPP, VANL,

19th Jul by Paul Scott

67 comments 11539 reads

Good morning (alright, afternoon…),

It’s Jack here. Paul is otherwise engaged right now so I’m stepping in.

Domino’s Pizza Poland (LON:DPP)

Share price: 8.63p
No. of shares: 249 million
Market cap: £19.36m

Domino’s Pizza Poland has updated on first half trading. As the name suggests, this is the Master Franchise holder of the Domino’s Pizza brand in Poland. When it comes to this small cap, a picture tells a thousand words:

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No surprises that what was once a High Flyer is now classified by Stockopedia’s algorithms as a “Speculative Micro Cap Sucker Stock”.

Ouch.

It has been a bumpy ride for shareholders in a company that promises much but has so far failed to deliver a single year of net profit after almost a decade as a listed enterprise.

We can see that management has been busy growing the top line quite consistently, however:

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DPP has been busy rolling out its store estate and this rapid growth continues to result in losses. The question is whether or not you believe there is still a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. When it works, the Domino’s model can be almost ludicrously profitable - but it doesn’t always work, and the market today is different from when it conquered the UK in the 90s and Noughties.

Online food delivery aggregators, for example, have their eyes firmly set on the takeaway market these days, and this new breed of competition has been explicitly listed by management as a risk going forward.

It appears as though the group has turned a corner and is moving on from a period of negative like-for-like sales (definitely a phrase that a small cap growth stock is not supposed to say), with like-for-like (LfL) sales ‘building from March 2019’. Breaking that down a bit, the group had -1% LfL growth in system sales January-June 2019 on January-June 2018 but LfL growth in system sales were +5% in the March-June 2019 period (vs. same period last year).

The difference between these two figures are a set of tough January and February comps in 2018 that were boosted by a successful trial of nationwide TV advertising which has not been repeated this year (presumably DPP thinks it has not yet got the geographic…

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spantick

19th Jul

I think Paul needs a spanked bottom bending over the bonnet of his new car! Then post on his twitter, now that would be fun !

-6

Ben Hobson

Hello everyone - I'm one of the editors at Stocko, so probably one of the people you should be yelling at for intermittent SCVR service, rather than Paul.

Obviously I have a bit more of a 360 degree view of the editorial and content plans here, and we should really have prepared better for all eventualities. The paywall was a very carefully considered development for us, but it could never - and was never meant to ever - guarantee that Paul and/ or Graham would be infallible. So our in-house team need to be better at covering them when need be and keeping up the continuity, so we will. Jack's stepped in late today and done an excellent job, and I'm here to help too.

Sorry for the frustration. We're on a learning curve and we learnt a lesson today. We'll put it right.

Thanks, Ben

elviron

Everyone (myself included) seems to be in agreement that Paul's insight into the daily RNS is always an excellent read.

However, to those who say that this is not the place to criticise as it is "off-topic" (most of the criticism has been backed up by sound argument today), I would say: firstly, there was no share "topic" to discuss either yesterday or today (until Jack stepped in for a last-minute job) and secondly, if that argument were to stand, then those who post "off-topic" praise for Paul and Graham, should do so privately too.

Paul is salaried. He is paid to produce daily content. Those who suggest he doesn't "need" the money, are mistaken, I believe. He is not doing this for charity - yes, I've no doubt he enjoys the work and enjoys helping others steer clear of investing pitfalls, but he is renumerated for it nevertheless, doubtless fairly handsomely. He previously had his own website before moving to Stocko I believe...the migration resulted in the receipt of a reliable salary for his musings. Incidentally, Graham also has his own website now, whilst retaining his job at Stockopedia...

Investments can go up as well as down, and some of Paul's favoured investments have suffered this year, with the change in market sentiment. I have no doubt that there is great comfort in having his Stockopedia salary in the background, paying the day-to-day expenses and some.

johnsmith68

The honesty and integrity of Stocko in general, of SCVR in particular, of Paul, Graham, Ed and amply illustrated by Ben's comment, are the reasons why I love Stocko and the SCVR. Haters will hate but it's gratifying that so many subscribers who comment below the line here see the real value of what is done here and the monumental effort that Paul and Graham put into this week after week. Best wishes Paul, please don't be put off and please carry on writing whatever you like, whenever you feel like it.

Laughton

Bit harsh there elviron.

Maybe you know a lot more than me (I have no idea what Paul or Graham's arrangement is with Stocko. Maybe they pay him a lot or maybe they just pay him a token).

I'm sure it just needs managing a bit better and hopefully Ben will take care of this going forward.

A lot of the problem is frustration. We've come to rely on our daily fix of Paul and/or Graham and when it isn't there then we are "disappointed". I'm sure everyone would have been happy with just a "Sorry, I'm not up to it today" message at the top of the page. Then we all know to move on and stopp checking back to see if there are any write-ups.

andrewjames

Filing daily reports is undoubtedly a significant chore and commitment, but that is the basic job description. The fact that this has become a material topic says it all and speaks volumes. You either sign up for that package or do something else, Either option is just fine, but you have to decide what works best for you. This is not a blog where anything goes.People legitimately expect daily analysis, whether they agree with it or not.

clarea

Would love to see the momentum master Robbie Burns dropping in for a once a week ramble his style of analysing companies is done in minutesbut so effective where his big skill is though is planning whats going to happen before he even gets into the ttrade, Money management in my opinion is 50% of this game and Mr Burns has that side of things nailed fingers crossed he can be tempted.

Roland would be a good call also his posts don't get the recognition they deserve and he also goes into great detail showing how he uses Stocko for research.

Jack Brumby

Thanks, Nico!

purpleski

Can’t reply to Julianh’s comment but absolutely brilliant and I agree whole heartily. Brilliantly put.

xcity

Yes, the Reply function seems to have been removed from this thread.

The key for me is Julianh's comment that there is only one Paul Scott. I've read many commentators/analysts - as will have many here - but there is still only one Paul. Stocko can have a hundred commentators on every small company announcement, but Paul would still be reaching parts the others cannot.

I don't always agree with him and I'm not interested in all the companies he comments on - but every now and then he makes me think differently about a company or an investment. And I check here every day just to see if today is one of those days.

Steves cups

Ben
Thanks for your informative comment earlier. Good to know.
Jack
Thanks for stepping into the breach

Martin5760

Thanks Jack for stepping in at such short notice and under pressure. You have done an excellent job.

Chris.Brown

I've been on here for 7 years, and this is easily the least interesting period for small caps - well stocks generally - that I can remember.

Everything decent is fully priced. The quality small co's of a few years ago are now mid-caps on 30-plus p/e ratios. There are no Globo's or Quindell's to rail against.

I think it's entirely appropriate the reports become more sporadic.
We're all just waiting for the music to stop on this market...

pka

20th Jul

"There are no Globo's or Quindell's to rail against."

I bet there are - even if we don't know who they are yet!

brileen

Easy to poke fun at Investors Chronicle and Simon Thompson but after not subscribing for many years now find it to be better more informed magazine than previously. I have renewed my subscription recently and have found that Simon has brought to my attention a number of good opportunities that I had overlooked. He is not always right but neither is any analyst/commentator on the stock market. Paul’s failings are there for all to see as are the many times he has steered in the right direction. Overall I continue to subscribe to this site for in my mind its unparalleled statistical coverage and its daily (most days) SCVR.

Trident

Sometimes when your stocks are down. so is your spirits with them. When they are performing well, you buzz with anticipation.

Paul seems to have quite a lot of growth stocks in his portfolio from my understanding. In these markets that's pretty demoralising, and maybe saps enthusiasm.

Paul strikes me as someone who needs this buzz of excitement, and when that goes, the world feels a lot flatter and duller. So routine is not for him. That does not sit well with delivering daily updates on a market when he is not feeling it, or his latest enthusiasm does not chime with the crowd, or worse gets criticised.

I find his style of writing pretty unique in the financial markets, but unfortunately he is prone to missing deadlines.and commitments, and this tendency has grown more noticeable as time has gone on. A loose brief I think would suit him better, but at the end of the day for all of us, becoming unreliable in any area of life has some consequences, and not least perhaps in this instance is people who you may nether care for or respect, publicly commenting on your apparent shortcomings.

I personally find marriage with its daily dose of critical analysis usually helps me find the motivation to get in the car and go to work :-) !

Santawani

I have really tried to sit on my hands and not get involved in Thursday and Friday’s debates other than to ‘like’ some excellent support for Paul.

However, as the comments rumble on I just want to say a personal Thank You to Paul.

Paul has single handedly taught me how to read profit and loss accounts, balance sheets and cash flow statements, not only in the written reports but at times by recording his comments as you see him going through the results on camera. An enormous effort. He has also knocked a lot of sense into me regarding investments and enabled me to construct a portfolio that seems to shine in the good times and be fairly resilient in the bad times.

He has made me understand much more about analyst notes, gearing and avoiding (most if not all) blue sky stocks. Sometimes one really does just need a steadying hand.

Recently there was a You Tube recording that has helped me to see how to work my way through an IPO document and sometimes there are excellent interviews with small cap companies. Thank you for all that Paul.

I remember that Paul’s back history did used to state somewhere that he found 9 to 5 wasn’t for him, so I get it that this is the case and as a loyal follower am just delighted that he bothers to share his ups and downs and all his advice with us. After all he could just present us with a dry run down of what is happening each morning like most other commentators. Nowhere else have I found the advice, common sense and investing nous that Paul has given me.

Please let Paul do what works for him so that he can weave his magic.

Finally, as I seem to have let myself loose on the Comments section, I would like to put in a good word for all at Stockopedia and the outstanding contribution the website, all the key players like Ed, Graham, Ben, Roland and Jack – by the way nicely done yesterday Jack, stepping in like that - and the unsung heroes behind the scenes make to an everyday investor like me. I find Stockopedia seems to be there for its customers in the way that other investor websites often are not (I’m tempted to name names but had better not).

Please keep up the good work all at Stockopedia.

Finally (again), please don’t give up on us Paul. Nowhere else have I ever found the depth of detail on accounts or the amount of advice that I have on this Small Cap Report. And believe me I’ve looked! Your contribution is absolutely invaluable and truly appreciated.

Santa

garbetklb

Annoying that the "Reply" button seems to have disappeared on this thread as I'd use it in this case to point out that the author of post 53 "andrewjames" is not me!

Simply so some of the people who know that's my name don't get confused!

Gnome2

21st Jul

Firstly, I’d like to add my appreciation of all the hard work that Paul and Graham do. If anything, the daily reports have become longer and more detailed as time’s gone on and I’ve wondered for a while how sustainable this can be. How about a change of approach? Do we really need a detailed analysis of every small cap that announces news that day? MrContrarian summarizes these every morning (maybe he should be on the pay role!).
Basically, I think we’re all looking for investment ideas and at the same time, trying to avoid the duds. Maybe Paul and Graham could write a single post per week focusing on one or two shares that they feel positive about and highlight one or two that they think are overrated - Green flags and red flags. No doubt this wouldn’t suit everyone but that’s my tuppence worth.

jonesj

I'm perfectly happy with irregular reports that have ranged from good to brilliant.

Over the last few years, they have had everything, including a lot of educational content, hilarious criticism of some dogs and some outstandingly profitable ideas (DYOR).
As has been pointed out, they are often quite long & must take a lot of writing.

I wouldn't think many of the people who have written comments here could manage to produce such good quality content on a daily basis.
For those who want regular content, there are regular publications with career journalists who don't have any of their own money on the line.

I would rather read higher quality irregular content from people who are managing their own money & even better, if they are doing it successfully. A similar philosophy to Charlie Munger who said he would rather have someone who is already rich managing his money (Li Lu). I like to learn from people who have skin in the game.

Besides, as investors, all we need is to learn more daily (from anywhere) and have only 1 good investment idea a year on average.
So no changes to SCVR required. [Well maybe specify 15 reports a month, or something like that, rather than daily. Then there are no grounds for whinging].

Small Cap Value Report (Fri 19 July 2019) - DPP, VANL,

Domino’s Pizza Poland (LON:DPP)

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Paul Scott

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