Small Cap Value Report (Fri 20 Sep 2019) - CLP, EVE, SOG, FCRM

Friday, Sep 20 2019 by
42

Good morning!

I'm in an airport restaurant, hoping that nobody notices I haven't ordered anything. There's only a few minutes until I have to go to the departure gate - let's see how much I can cover.



Clear Leisure (LON:CLP)

Interim Results

This name has been knocking around for a long time. It's now an investment company with NAV of just E1.5 million (denominated in Euros because of its investments in Italy). It's highly leveraged,  borrowings on today's balance sheet of over E6 million.

Unless it raises a lot of new money, I don't see how it can stay listed for that much longer. The Board has the authority to issue shares with nominal value of up to £500k, but the share price as of last night is trading below nominal value (0.25p). Doesn't that make issuing new shares sort of tricky?



eve Sleep (LON:EVE)

  • Share price: 4.9p (pre-market)
  • No. of shares: 261 million
  • Market cap: £13 million

Cessation of merger talks, trading update and lifting of suspension

This company sells mattresses online. It has a strong track record of unprofitability.

Merger - abandoning merger talks, and its shares can trade again.

Trading update- it says brand awareness has improved by 50%, from 10%. So I guess that means we are at 15% now.

Then it gives us the bad news:

...overall trading has been more challenging than previously anticipated owing to the uncertain economic outlook and continuing low levels of consumer confidence. This economic backdrop combined with heavy discounting and promotional activity from our competitors has led the board to conclude that 2019 revenues are now likely to be in the range of £25m-£27m.

According to the StockReport, 2019 revenues were supposed to be £35.3 million (up from £34.8 million in 2018). If that is the most recent forecast, this is a savage sales miss.

Through cost-cutting, the company still hopes to make a reduced loss this year, compared to 2018.

CEO comment:

The opportunity to create a leading sleep wellness brand remains undiminished and I am confident that eve's rebuild strategy, centred around a differentiated brand…

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Disclaimer:  

All my own views. I am not regulated by the FSA. No advice.

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StatPro Group plc is a United Kingdom-based company engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of software systems and the provision of Web-based portfolio analysis and asset pricing services to the global asset management industry. The Company's segments include Europe, South Africa and Asia Pacific (EMEAA), North America and Central. The Company offers the StatPro Revolution, which is a portfolio analytics service. Its StatPro Revolution is a platform, which allows users to access portfolio performance, attribution, contribution, allocation, risk and compliance analytics. Its StatPro Revolution covers over 3.2million global securities, including equities, fixed income, mutual funds, listed futures contacts, inter-bank deposits and options. Its StatPro Revolution supports various data models, which include holdings-based, market values, pre-calculated weights and returns from StatPro Seven, or pre-calculated weights and returns from other performance systems. more »

LSE Price
229p
Change
0.4%
Mkt Cap (£m)
150.2
P/E (fwd)
24.6
Yield (fwd)
1.3

Clear Leisure plc is an investment company, which is engaged in creating a portfolio of companies within the leisure, entertainment, interactive media and financial services sectors. The Company invests in real estate and service companies within the leisure sector. The Company's properties are based in Italy. The Company owns interests in a sushi restaurant chain (Sosushi), a water theme park (Ondaland), and an approximately 670,000 square meters tract of real estate, over 10 Villas in the Porto Cervo Area in Sardinia. Mediapolis S.p.A. is the leisure investment based on a theme park in northern Italy between Milan and Turin. Ondaland Water Park covers approximately 40 acres. more »

LSE Price
0.21p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
1.4
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a

eve Sleep PLC, formerly eve Sleep Limited, is an e-commerce company. The Company is focused on direct to consumer European sleep brand which designs and sells eve-branded mattresses and other sleep products. The Company has six products, including foam mattress, topper, pillow, sheets, protector and duvet. The Company’s foam mattress made are up of three layers: a base layer of high-density foam, which provides support and durability; a middle layer of open-celled foam, which encourages air flow; and a top layer of next-generation memory foam, which moulds around pressure points and then springs back once the pressure is released. The Company's protector product is made of 100% cotton and a Neotherm membrane. The Company’s sheets product offers unbeatable comfort and sublime softness. more »

LSE Price
2.6p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
6.8
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a



  Is LON:SOG fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


16 Comments on this Article show/hide all

MrContrarian 20th Sep 1 of 16
15

My morning smallcap tweet: EVE crashes out of bed with merger partner

eve Sleep (LON:EVE), ULS Technology (LON:ULS), Thomas Cook (LON:TCG)

Eve Sleep (EVE) guides FY rev only £25m-£27m. F/C is £35.3m. Blames everything but themselves. Still expects smaller FY EBITDA loss. Merger is off, unsuspended.
ULS Technology (ULS) a contract is no renewed, will cut £0.4-0.5m off FY21 pretax. Only minor hit this FY.
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) confirms bailout inc to £1.1bn as it needs £200m seasonal standby facility. Recap "expected to result in existing shareholders' interests being significantly diluted, with significant risk of no recovery." I'm short.

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fredericktug 20th Sep 2 of 16
4

Good Morning,

Slightly complicated but reasonably good results from £FCRM this morning. SP well down following earlier PW's. - beginning to look good on quality and value metrics, notwithstanding cyclicality? Would appreciate a look Graham if you have time?

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greenhat2 20th Sep 3 of 16
3

Can you take a look at £FCRM Fulcrum Utility Services?  

Long delay in posting results which are now out today. 

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ezlifeme 20th Sep 4 of 16
2

Disciplined time management of the best order Graham - AND some interesting comments! 

"So many deals happening recently - the combination of weak GBP and low small-cap valuations, in my view."

I agree with your final comment - which one(s) to pick?

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Nothingventured 20th Sep 5 of 16
2

Any time to look at Fulcrum? Been waiting for the delayed results for ages.

The accounts have been restated but detail in the report makes the historic adjustments seem minor - but I'm not an accountant. Although profitability is treading water underlying turnover in many of the company's business devisions seems to be climbing rapidy.

My take is that the shares are cheap.

J

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DMG2305 20th Sep 6 of 16
2

Hi Graham, 

It would be great to hear your thoughts on APGN's interim results.  Huge growth led by acquisition and fueled by debt.  You did a great analysis of SDI's ROCE and I've attempted to do the same with APGN but it's difficult to calculate when they are making so many acquisitions so quickly.  Share price is only up 2% and has been sliding all year.  I suspect net profit is not growing quickly enough for Mr Market and the large debt is likely a worry too. 

Best

DG

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Edward John Canham 20th Sep 7 of 16
4

In reply to post #515141

Fulcrum Utility Services (LON:FCRM)

The house broker Cenkos has issued a note which is available on ResearchTree. It is forecasting a reduction in adjusted EPS from 3.6p to 1.5p in 2020, although back up to 2.7p in 2021.

Phil

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AlanJenkins2 20th Sep 8 of 16

Off-topic apols,but where is the search feature for this column on the new site ? [all I can find is the general stock search].

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millen 20th Sep 9 of 16

Interesting comment this morning from FCA saying MiFID II rules have saved investors £70m.
I thought some here were sceptical about the pricing out of much small company research.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-markets-research/uk-markets-watchdog-says-research-rules-saved-investors-70-million-pounds-idUKKBN1W4114

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FREng 20th Sep 10 of 16
1

In reply to post #515226

You could go to the stock reort for the company you want to find and then click on "discussions". That will find any SCVRs that mention it in the heading.

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Bonitabeach 20th Sep 11 of 16
1

ALUMASC LON:ALU

It's a slow news day so this caught my eye: Directorate Change. Did he jump or was he pushed? I don't think it matters too much: ALUMASC is finding it tough and I think this is a sign things will get worse before they get better.

I have made money on this one in the past but I think it needs to be around 70p before I feel seriously tempted again.

Bonitabeach


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LeoInvestorUK 20th Sep 12 of 16
12

eve Sleep (LON:EVE)

"strong track record of unprofitability", "despite being backed by a well-known fund manager" - I love the deadpan humour!

Woodford isn't somebody I'd want to get into bed with and even if the shares might be due a bounce, I don't think I'd be able to sleep at night. Some would say investors were caught napping and this was never my idea of a dream investment, but...(wait for it)...

...holders must be foaming at the mouth!

Blog: LeoInvestorUK
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Private_Investor_Blog 20th Sep 13 of 16

Graham & others,

Just to say Carillion was easy to understand - as in don't go anywhere near it !

I did part of a webinar on it if anybody is interested - go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t523lhvRJPM&t=45s with the financial analysis starting at about minute 24 and going onto about minute 45. I use Stockopedia as my main source of financial analysis (with their permission).

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jombaston 20th Sep 14 of 16
3

I hope none of you have £SOG......its a Momentum Trap according to Stockopedia!

Is it time to bin these ridiculous categories?

Surely the idea is to provide info so we can make our own minds up 

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hayashi22 20th Sep 15 of 16
1

Well another one set to go...Low and Bonar. (£LWB) After hours cash offer from a German private company. May suggest its worth hanging onto some poor performers in the hope of a bid. Currency situation stacks up well for approaches to UK companies

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Jeffvshep 20th Sep 16 of 16
1

In reply to post #515271

cut the pillow talk please.

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About Graham Neary

Graham Neary

Full-time investor and independent analyst. Editor at Cube.Investments, small-cap writer at Stockopedia. Previously a fixed income analyst in the City and institutional fund manager. I'm a CFA charterholder and have the Investment Management Certificate and STA Diploma in Technical Analysis for good measure. When I'm not talking about finance, I enjoy recreational poker, chess and Mandarin Chinese. more »

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