Good morning, it's Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday.

(As usual, this is initially a placeholder post, for readers to add your comments from 7am, as I write the article section by section throughout the morning/afternoon. We aim to get most of the report done by 1pm.)

Estimated completion time today - 4pm (as I don't have anything else on today, I'll spend most of the day on this).
Edit at 16:55 - I've been delayed, due to feeling tired & stressed, probably like many of you too. It's not much fun watching our portfolios tumble. So I'm re-starting now, with 2 more companies to add. Revised finish time is 7pm.
Edit at 19:12 - today's report is now finished.

My thinking on coronavirus has, if anything become even more bearish. I've been watching quite a lot of CNBC this week, for views from across the pond. It strikes me that financial people seem incredibly complacent about the impending pandemic of coronavirus. One commentator even said he thought this could all be over (as in no longer an issue) in a fortnight! When you think through the consequences, of even a few months disruption, it's actually very serious. Lots of smaller businesses could fold, contract wins could be delayed or cancelled in many sectors, and the inevitable cost-cutting would result in higher unemployment, hence weaker consumer spending, hence recession. I think it's a big mistake to imagine this as a short term blip. Once things start to snowball downhill in a recession, it's difficult to stop.

That said, Governments can borrow at historically cheap rates (e.g. US 10 year is only 1% - which seems crazy for a country that is already borrowing at an alarming level).So maybe they can keep throwing money around like confetti, and keep it all propped up? I think we're globally building up conditions for another massive credit crunch, and major recession, once this credit bubble pops. Subjectively, to me conditions seem even more extreme than before the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

I think things look poised for coronavirus to trigger recession, in the UK, USA, and many other countries. That's only my opinion, based on the evidence we currently have, and could of course, as with any opinion, turn out to be wrong. Let's hope I am wrong.

As such, I think we can tear up broker forecasts for 2020, and I'm very…

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