Good morning, it's Paul here with the SCVR for Tuesday.

Estimated timings - lots already done, so plenty up by 1pm. I might do more in the afternoon, or might crash out in my hammock, it depends. Today's report is now finished. Thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated.

I've just ploughed through this 60-page Government publication, issued yesterday, 11 May 2020. I'll summarise it below, so that you don't have to!

I've followed the layout & headings in the original document (hyperlink below, in blue), so you can easily consult that particular section of the report if you want more detail.

If you're short of time, jump to "Section Four" below, which has the information that's most relevant to investors.



The UK Government's COVID-19 recovery strategy

Section 1 - the current situation

Phase 1 - this is what has happened until now. Graphics showing how the lockdown strategy was to reduce the peak to within what the NHS could cope with. Explains the principle of getting R (reproduction number) below 1, to prevent exponential growth. SAGE believes R is currently between 0.5 and 0.9, hence number of infected people is falling over time. Statistics & charts provided of number of people infected, and daily tests. Outlines economic risks of high unemployment & large fall in GDP.

Moving to the next phase - worried about risk of triggering a second peak of infections, so will only lift restrictions cautiously. These are the five tests for easing measures, as announced on 16 April:



Graphic showing big falls in critical care beds being used for Covid (peaked at c.54% in England, c.12 April, now c.26%)

The challenges ahead - Covid-19 is likely to be a long term, recurring problem. No drastic changes (to restrictions) can be done in short term. No quick or easy solution. Vaccine and/or effective treatment is long-term solution. Herd immunity approach would overwhelm the NHS. Still learning about the virus. Difficult to detect because covid can spread without people having symptoms. Winter flu in 2020/21 will complicate matters, as symptoms similar to covid. Needs widespread compliance of the public to Govt measures, which so far has been the case. Graph showing large reduction in public travel, by all means, but car use now rising, public transport…

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