Good morning, it's Paul here with Tuesday's SCVR.

Estimated timings - let's try for 1pm. I've started before 7am, and feel unusually perky this morning, so that should be do-able!
Edit at 12:03 - as usual, everything is taking longer than expected. How can 5 hours go by in the blink of an eye? It's looking more like 4pm finish time, as I need to do more work on G4M & Scapa.

Update at 15:57 - today's report is now finished.


Covid treatment/vaccine

Given that I have no medical knowledge, I've tended not to think about the likelihood of a vaccine appearing any time soon. Experts in the field told me a few months ago that a vaccine would probably be late 2021 (at best), and maybe not at all. This is similar to what the UK Govt said in its document about the lockdown a few months ago.

However, much more promising signs seem to be appearing. An article in the Telegraph today really gave me a jolt (in a positive way). This suggests that, admittedly only in a best case scenario, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine could be ready by this October. In a similar vein, Jim Cramer keeps saying on CNBC that the tone he's hearing direct from top US pharma company CEOs has become much more positive of late.

If effective treatments to suppress covid are only months away, then this changes everything. It means that humanity could get back to something like normal maybe by early 2021? That means travel, holidays, hospitality, retail, and every other sector can ramp back up to normal. Therefore I'm wondering if I should be pushing the boat out a bit more with some shares that could rise strongly if that scenario plays out. The key factor is whether companies have enough liquidity to survive into 2021? If they do, then the future for such shares could be much more positive than currently expected. Plus they could see pent-up demand, and less competition.

I appreciate it must be a bit frustrating for readers, because I change my mind on this topic more often than I change my socks!

We've got to balance up optimism over treatments/vaccines, with the negative of current resurgence in cases in some states in the USA, in Germany, and other places. It's certainly not under control yet, but if that's only months away, then…

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