Hi, it's Paul here, with the SCVR for Tuesday.
Estimated timings - most of the report is ready for the 1pm email, but I'll keep going until about 4pm with extra sections.
Today's report is now finished.
Market thoughts
As always the macro/virus picture is very uncertain, and I'm constantly grappling with this, as I'm sure you are too. How do we balance up catastrophic short term economic damage, offset by unprecedented Govt support & stimulus? Lockdown is far too expensive (in economic & human costs) to continue, as shown in the recent OBR report.
There's big potential upside if/when an effective treatment, and then probably later, a vaccine, is created.
There's big downside potential, if/when subsequent waves of the virus happen before there's a treatment for it.
It's all down to timing really. Nobody knows with any accuracy how this is going to pan out, hence why I am wary of anyone that expresses their views/predictions with too much certainty. It's not "will", it's "might".
In the shorter term, now that the virus seems to be peaking & starting to reduce in many countries, then that is increasing demands for lockdown to at least be eased in stages. I'll be closely monitoring how that goes, as it's likely to be a key driver of share prices. It's also important to look at data, as this very often gives a different true picture, compared with the media attention given to tragic, but often atypical, cases.
Taking all that into account, I'm trying to position myself in shares where I see good recovery potential that hasn't yet been fully baked into the current price.
Recent purchases have been housebuilders (done well), car dealerships (only a small recovery in price so far), on the basis that they're likely to get back to business very soon. I foresee pent up demand for both.
Property REITS are another area I've bought, but made a loss, having jumped the gun.
These are more trades than investments, and I'm trying to buy liquid mid caps in those sectors, so I can ditch them any time, as the facts change.
Looking forwards, I think H1 company results could be so dire, that we might see another move downwards in the markets in the summer, once people see the full enormity of many companies' losses. Or investors might look through short term losses, I…
