Good morning!
Brand new Stockopedia charts
The technical guys at Stockopedia HQ have been busy working on completely new charting software, for a long time now. Well, today is launch day! I had a preview last night, and it's a massive improvement on the existing charts on this site.
Ed is doing the launch in a webinar at 1pm today. The webinar sign up link is here. There are already a large number of people signed up, so there's clearly lots of interest in the new charts.
Whatever you think of charting, it does measure investor sentiment. So combining some analysis of the chart, with strong fundamental analysis, makes a lot of sense to me. I've certainly been more willing to run my winners, and tolerate more stretched valuations (in certain circumstances) recently, after reading the excellent Mark Minervini book on super-performance stocks - don't be put off by the spivvy-sounding title to the book, as it's an excellent read, highly recommended. He relies on some simple charting techniques to time his buy & sell points.
There are a lot of interesting trading updates & results out today in our small caps universe. Therefore both Graham & I will be writing reports today. I know it's a pain when we deliver 2 separate reports, but the logistics of it currently necessitate that, otherwise chaos will ensue if we try to merge lots of sections into one report.
Graham's report is taking shape here.
This is our plan of action today:
I intend reporting on
Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) - in line interim results & outlook
Boohoo.Com (LON:BOO) - due to popular demand, I'm continuing to report on this, even though it's now a mid-cap. Yet another positive trading update, and completion of Nasty Gal acquisition.
Graham intends reporting on;
Waterman (LON:WTM) - interim results
Redde (LON:REDD) - interim results
Avanti Communications (LON:AVN) - interim results
Swallowfield (LON:SWL) - interim results
Then, if there's time, we'll try to more briefly mention:
Johnson Service (LON:JSG) - interim results
Avingtrans (LON:AVG) - interim results + acquisition
Concerns seem to focus on slowing LFL sales for Revolution Bars (LON:RBG), but it's not as if this is a trend which is unique to RBG - it's affecting much of the sector. I'd recommend reading the Langton capital note issued earlier in the month for more of a sector overview. It makes the point that total sales rather than LFL sales are what brings in cash, and that margins (which RBG are thus far managing to maintain) are just as important in converting sales into profits. I'd be more concerned if LFL starts to go negative or is noticeably worse than the competition, but I don't think that applies here. In my opinion focus on shorter term headwinds risks losing sight of the longer term picture. 5 or 6 new sites each year for the next 10 years or more will easily outweigh the effect of flat LFL sales, and the management have flagged up previously that operational gearing effects will kick in as the estate grows.
Re: RBG
You are right, the numbers do look good. As a double check Look at a few Triladvisor reviews and these left me quite concerned. Lots of almost identical reviews for several different bars - essentially the same review but with all the names changed. It looks as if RBG have paid someone to put in lots of favourable reviews. Probably RBG are not the only company doing this. But when the TripAdvisor reviews seem to be fabrications how can I trust the accounts and profit forecasts. And the few reviews that did not look as if they came from the same pen often mentioned poor quality food.
I'd very much like to join in on this one - a self funded retail roll-out is almost a free ride. But not until I can feel confident in the numbers, the forecasts and that the bars are good enough to make a successful roll-out.
RBG is on my watchlist but I do not hold.