Good morning, it's Paul here, with the placeholder to start off with at 7am. It's anybody's guess what happens next, in this bizarre new world we live in.

Probably like most people, I'm trying to figure out what the hell happens next? When not sure, I just try to do a base case, then an upside & a downside scenario.

In my head, it goes something like this;

  • Base case - short term economic shutdown, the like of which has never been seen before. Unknown outcome, but recovery at some point (unknown timing).
  • Downside scenario - CV19 might recur, or linger, or worsen, leading to unknown economic disaster
  • Upside scenario - CV19 peaks, then recedes, and economic activity resumes in the next few weeks.

We need to know which of the above it will be, in order to value shares.

Therefore, it's just guesswork right now.

Personally, I remember thinking to myself in Torremolinos in early Feb 2020, that this looked really bad, and hedging, only to be almost wiped out by a whippy movement in the indices. Since then, it gives me no pleasure whatsoever to say that my hedges protected me very well, and have provided lots of fresh cash to buy beaten down small and mid caps. It feels sick to talk like this. We lost John's mum yesterday, when the hospital turned off her life support, as this evil virus took over her body. We must have been one of the first households in London to be taken over by CV19. We battled it for 3 weeks, and sadly we lost Madeleine yesterday. I am just numb with it all. But we have to carry on.

What to look at next?

Housebuilders - generally really good balance sheets. Worried that I missed the +12% rise yesterday?

REITS - I could be wrong, but have gone big in Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) and small in Hammerson (LON:HMSO) - I think both should survive covenants, but we'll see

Retailers - could be a disaster, but I couldn't resist MKS at 100p. Says it has lots of liquidity.

That's probably it for now. I'm so tempted with Wetherspoons, Greggs, and others. Have bought Dunelm. I see this as an opportunity to move up to some better quality shares.


Well done to WH Smith, getting a placing away.

Many, even most, businesses need to raise money.…

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