Small Cap Value Report (Wed 13 Feb 2019) - SOS, CWD, MLVN, SDI, OPTI, CER

Wednesday, Feb 13 2019 by

Good evening/afternoon, and indeed morning, it's Paul here!  (that sounds like a 1970s TV programme introduction, I like it, let's use that again!)

Tuesday was busy, as I had to interview management of Sosandar (LON:SOS) (which is my largest personal shareholding). As usual, questions were crowd-sourced from readers here - many thanks for lots of interesting questions, and sorry we didn't manage to cover all of them.

Here is the finished article;

Link to Sosandar audio interview


I'm getting ready for an important mission to do some charity work, next week.

As some of my friends here might know, I've become an increasing admirer of a tiny charity called ZANE which achieves a lot of good things, with very little money, helping people who might otherwise die, without medical help, in Zimbabwe.

Many of you already know about it, but if you don't then please do check it out.

To cut a long story short, I have been invited to join ZANE in a trip to Zimbabwe for a fortnight, from next week. The purpose is to experience first-hand what ZANE is doing on the ground, to help people there in desperate circumstances. On my return, I hope to help raise money for the people there, through ZANE.

I will be paying for my own flights, etc., and am already a monthly donor to ZANE, personally. Plus it's nice to bung the occasional £500 to them too, when something goes well on the markets.

Anyway, my feeling is that many readers are already incredibly generous with your own charity projects. So this is very far from virtue signalling. Going to Zimbabwe just seemed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and hopefully when I get back, I might be able to do some good. And maybe appreciate my own, comfortable life, a bit more? (instead of complaining all the time about things that don't really matter).

Let's see how it goes. Graham will be looking after you here, and I'll chip in as I can over the next 2 or 3 weeks. Should be interesting!

Countrywide (LON:CWD)

Share price: 10.15p (up 3.7% today, at 10:34)
No. shares: 1,638m
Market cap: £166.3m

Trading statement

This is a chain of estate agents, which…

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Sosandar PLC, formerly Orogen PLC, is a United Kingdom-based company that operates an online women’s wear platform. The Company’s clothing categories include dresses, jackets and coats, knitwear, shirts and blouses, tops, skirts, trousers, jeans, leggings, footwear, leather and suede, occasion wear, work wear, autumn trends, velvet and holiday shop. Its footwear products include Pewter Metallic Chelsea Boot, Red Leather Ankle Boot, Velvet Cylinder Heel Ankle Boot, Black Leather Stud Detail Ankle Boot, Black Suede Closed Toe Mule, Grey Velvet Court Shoe With Jeweled Brooch, Black Suede And Pewter Metallic Court Shoe, Black Leather Front Zip Ankle Boot, Leopard Print Leather Chelsea Boot, Steel Blue Leather Snake Print Ankle Boot And Black Suede Knee Boot. It also offers latest edit of day-to-night dresses, on-trend separates, luxe leather and outfit-topping shoes through its platform. more »

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Countrywide plc is an integrated, full service residential estate agency and property services company in the United Kingdom. The Company offers estate agency and lettings services, together with a range of complementary services, and has a presence in areas and property types which are promoted through locally respected brands. The Company operates through four segments: Retail, London, Financial Services and Business to Business (B2B). The Retail network combines estate agency and lettings operations. The London division revenue is earned from both estate agency commissions and lettings and management fees. The Financial Services division receives commission from the sale of insurance policies, mortgages and related products under contracts with financial service providers. Business to Business services comprise all lines of business, which are delivered to corporate clients, including Surveying Services, Conveyancing Services and revenue from Lambert Smith Hampton. more »

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Malvern International plc, formerly AEC Education plc, is an investment holding company, which is engaged in the provision of educational consultancy services. The principal activity of the Company is to provide an educational offering that is principally towards preparing students to meet the demands of business and management. The Company's segments include Europe and South East Asia/Middle East. The Company's Europe segment includes London and Cyprus operations. The Company's South East Asia/Middle East segment includes Malaysia and Singapore. The Company offers courses, including certificate, diploma and pre-university programs; university degree and postgraduate programs; preparatory courses for professional examinations; tuition services for secondary school students, and English language teaching. The Company's schools include Malvern House, London; Malvern International, Kuala Lumpur, and Malvern House, Cyprus. more »

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  Is LON:SOS fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »

50 Comments on this Article show/hide all

tony akram 13th Feb 31 of 50

In reply to post #447188

No not really !!!

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Toyin 13th Feb 32 of 50

In reply to post #447193


England is my first language, thank you. No retraction from me, I stand by what I said. No criticism of thoroughness, just criticism of sloppyness and bias. E.g. “revenues in H2 were up over 500% on H1 with further growth expected in 2019. But that wouldn’t fit with the hatchet job. Silly me.

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Toyin 13th Feb 33 of 50

In reply to post #447198

Oh well, no worries.

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herbie47 13th Feb 34 of 50

In reply to post #447128

OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) said "We anticipate further revenue growth in 2019 as existing deals contribute to full year revenues, and partners continue to grow sales."

So who is factually incorrect?

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Toyin 13th Feb 35 of 50

In reply to post #447218


Very good point. I would say that the word "further" means that growth is already happening, but currently England is being disputed as my first language, so I will leave that to the rest of these fine folks to decide.

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Gromley 13th Feb 36 of 50

In reply to post #447203

England is my first language, thank you.

I do not like to pick up on typos as they are so easily made, but when follows this up with :

but currently England is being disputed as my first language

it is hard to keep a straight face.

I hate to "play the man not the ball", but when you haven't really provided  'a ball' (ie a cogent argument) it is hard to do otherwise.

If you are convinced of the merits of OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) then surely Paul's negativity, if misplaced, is a boon - creating the opportunity to buy more shares at a discount?

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rick 13th Feb 37 of 50

In reply to post #447203

"England is my first language" .. said no English man ever.

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Toyin 14th Feb 38 of 50

In reply to post #447253

You really don't get sarcasm do you! LMAO.

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Toyin 14th Feb 39 of 50

One last point.

“The CEO seemed to suggest (in a video) that products were developed in Spain, by students who were paid £30k p.a. salaries.”

The £30k was for renting Lab space, nothing to do with salaries or students! It was for cost saving (labs in the UK are very expensive) but hey, lets not let facts get in the way.

Anyway I’m done. Sorry to criticise your prophet but he’s made a mistake, well quite a few actually.

“The mind is like a parachute, only of use when it’s open!”

If anyone would like to know the truth about OPTI I suggest you head over to lemming investors, it’s very informative. (I would mention Shareprophets but dont want to get abused!)

Hope my English has improved a little.

Ta ta

(Or should it be TATA one of those small companies OPTI does business with?)

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peterg 14th Feb 40 of 50

In reply to post #447128

2. The shake didn't work for him, he says "So any weight loss from using this product comes entirely from a shake having fewer calories than a regular meal." Again factually incorrect.

On what basis are you claiming this is factually incorrect, Toyin.

The whole point about OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI), and one reason I wouldn't touch it is that it is not a Pharma, and not covered by any of the regulation and requirements to prove efficacy that real drug companies have. As has been said it's a lifestyle company. It's selling dreams. That maybe profitable, or not, but that's a different issue. But I'd very much doubt they have any evidence that the mode of action of their shake is other than being fewer calories. 

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Toyin 14th Feb 41 of 50

In reply to post #447488


Seriously, do some research and stop taking one persons word for granted. I have over two hundred pages with data and facts on OPTI, yes facts! Please see below for one small snippet of information which blows your statement out the water. Stop defending, it’s getting embarrassing for you all now!

SlimBiome(R) granted medical device status and CE mark
OptiBiotix Health plc (AIM: OPTI), a life sciences business developing compounds to tackle obesity, high cholesterol and skin care, announces that its award winning SlimBiome(R) has been granted medical device status and a CE mark. This allows SlimBiome(R) to be :-
i. Freely marketed as a medical device to all countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) and markets with mutual recognition agreements (e.g. Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand)
ii. Follow shortened medical product registration procedures in other international markets (e.g. China, United Arab Emirates)
iii. Make medicinal or medical claims supported by clinical studies
iv. Extends the application of SlimBiome(R) from food products into high value medical products
CE marked products will be manufactured in Europe and sold in boxes of 30 single dose sachets as SlimBiome(R) Medical to pharmacies and major retailers as a clinically proven solution to promote weight loss. Independent clinical studies at a number of universities have shown that when compared to a control group, consumers who took SlimBiome(R) :-
-- Feel fuller and are less hungry
-- Experience less food cravings
-- Change their food choice to eat less sweet and fatty foods
In addition to clinical studies, independent consumer surveys have shown that 100% of customers who used SlimBiome(R) in OptiBiotix's GoFigure(R) products lost weight, on average 2-3lbs per week, but most importantly they experienced a relief from hunger pangs, leading to easier and more successful dieting.
SlimBiome(R) has attained two industry awards: Weight Management Ingredient of the Year (Vitafoods 2018) and the award for 'Best Functional Ingredient for Health and Well Being' (Food Matters 2017).
Stephen O'Hara, CEO of OptiBiotix, commented: "We are excited that after two years of working with manufacturers and European regulatory bodies, SlimBiome(R) has been granted medical device status and a CE mark. This is a significant achievement as it extends the application of SlimBiome(R) from food products into high value medical products and opens up access to consumer healthcare and pharmaceutical markets. SlimBiome(R) Medical can be used by itself, or as part of a calorie restriction diet to reduce hunger and food cravings to improve compliance, and help users achieve sustainable weight loss. We are delighted that we now have a number of clinical studies showing SlimBiome's(R) effectiveness, a large IP portfolio, two industry awards, and now a medical device registration and CE mark. These are clear differentiators from other weight loss products which we hope will contribute substantive revenues to OptiBiotix's growth in the months and years ahead."

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brballs 14th Feb 42 of 50

In reply to post #447513

While I don't currently agree with the investment case or your tone here, I've decided to try some scuttlebutt and ordered some shakes. Will report back.

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peterg 14th Feb 43 of 50

In reply to post #447513

I hope you're not relying on studies like this one?

Where the placebo group started with lower food cravings than the experimental group, and ended at the end of the trial with roughly comparable results? And the placebo fat intake at an ad libitum breakfast for the placebo group increased by about as much as the trial group decreased, but in both cases far less than the standard deviation. This stuff meaningless, and highlights the difference between real studies and getting CE because you can show it's not likely to make things any worse.

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Flitty 14th Feb This post has been moderated
Flitty 14th Feb 45 of 50

That was tweeted today 2 hrs ago by shareprophets I have screenshots.

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mojomogoz 14th Feb 46 of 50


I know nothing about OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) ....

I have no interest in finding out. Its not possible to be informed on everything and in markets opinions are often under-informed, however...

The vociferousness and spite with which some people are seeking to defend OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) is real red flag to me. I would now only be interested in doing work on this stock in the event that either revenues increase astronomically or share price falls a lot (with some revenue growth too).

My experience tells me when people get this angsty there's something amiss.


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Flitty 14th Feb This post has been moderated
Edward Croft 14th Feb 49 of 50

I do think the OptiBiotix drama is all quite fun.

We've got it labelled as a Speculative Sucker Stock, on a StockRank of 7. So clearly it's a future value play... but near term returns are going to be highly volatile.

Paul is entitled to whatever view he wants. Tom is entitled to whatever view he wants.

Buyers/Sellers make a market. There's no need to argue about it - just buy and sell at each other!

I'm closing this thread.

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Jack Owen 14th Feb 50 of 50

I have been following OPTI for years and have been to few of its lunch meetings. Deal after deal have been announced for as long as I can remember, but no material revenue has been forthcoming... Perhaps the lack of meaningful revenues is partly due to miniscule amounts used in the production process. As for Tom W he is just an uncouth bully, who just gets personal and insulting if anyone disagrees with his views, which is pathetic. Of course OPTI is over valued, insanely so, for where it is in its development cycle.

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This article is now closed. No new comments may be posted.

 Are LON:SOS's fundamentals sound as an investment? Find out More »

About Paul Scott

Paul Scott

I trained as an accountant with a Top 5 firm, but that was so boring that I spent too much time in the 1990s being a disco bunny, and busting moves on the dancefloor, and chilling out with mates back at either my house or theirs, and having a lot of fun!Then spent 8 years as FD for a ladieswear retail chain called "Pilot", leaving on great terms in 2002 - having been a key player in growing the business 10 fold. If the truth be told, I partied pretty hard at the weekends too, so bank reconciliations on Monday mornings were more luck than judgement!! But they were always correct.I got bored with that and decided to become a professional small caps investor in 2002. I made millions, but got too cocky, and lost the lot in 2008, due to excessive gearing. A miserable, wilderness period occurred from 2008-2012.Since then, the sun has begun to shine again! I am now utterly briliant again, and immerse myself in small caps, and am a walking encyclopedia on the subject. I love writing a daily report for on most weekday mornings, constantly researching daily results & trading updates for small caps. Cheese! more »


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