Small Cap Value Report (Wed 13 Feb 2019) - SOS, CWD, MLVN, SDI, OPTI, CER

13th Feb '19 by Paul Scott

50 comments 18233 reads

Good evening/afternoon, and indeed morning, it's Paul here! (that sounds like a 1970s TV programme introduction, I like it, let's use that again!)

Tuesday was busy, as I had to interview management of Sosandar (LON:SOS) (which is my largest personal shareholding). As usual, questions were crowd-sourced from readers here - many thanks for lots of interesting questions, and sorry we didn't manage to cover all of them.

Here is the finished article;

Link to Sosandar audio interview

ZANE

I'm getting ready for an important mission to do some charity work, next week.

As some of my friends here might know, I've become an increasing admirer of a tiny charity called ZANE which achieves a lot of good things, with very little money, helping people who might otherwise die, without medical help, in Zimbabwe.

Many of you already know about it, but if you don't then please do check it out.

To cut a long story short, I have been invited to join ZANE in a trip to Zimbabwe for a fortnight, from next week. The purpose is to experience first-hand what ZANE is doing on the ground, to help people there in desperate circumstances. On my return, I hope to help raise money for the people there, through ZANE.

I will be paying for my own flights, etc., and am already a monthly donor to ZANE, personally. Plus it's nice to bung the occasional £500 to them too, when something goes well on the markets.

Anyway, my feeling is that many readers are already incredibly generous with your own charity projects. So this is very far from virtue signalling. Going to Zimbabwe just seemed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and hopefully when I get back, I might be able to do some good. And maybe appreciate my own, comfortable life, a bit more? (instead of complaining all the time about things that don't really matter).

Let's see how it goes. Graham will be looking after you here, and I'll chip in as I can over the next 2 or 3 weeks. Should be interesting!

Countrywide (LON:CWD)

Share price: 10.15p (up 3.7% today, at 10:34)
No. shares: 1,638m
Market cap: £166.3m

Trading statement

This is a chain of estate agents, which…

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tony akram

13th Feb '19

No not really !!!

Toyin

rmillaree

England is my first language, thank you. No retraction from me, I stand by what I said. No criticism of thoroughness, just criticism of sloppyness and bias. E.g. “revenues in H2 were up over 500% on H1 with further growth expected in 2019. But that wouldn’t fit with the hatchet job. Silly me.

-9

Oh well, no worries.

herbie47

OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) said "We anticipate further revenue growth in 2019 as existing deals contribute to full year revenues, and partners continue to grow sales."

So who is factually incorrect?

herbie47

Very good point. I would say that the word "further" means that growth is already happening, but currently England is being disputed as my first language, so I will leave that to the rest of these fine folks to decide.

Gromley

England is my first language, thank you.

I do not like to pick up on typos as they are so easily made, but when follows this up with :

but currently England is being disputed as my first language

it is hard to keep a straight face.

I hate to "play the man not the ball", but when you haven't really provided 'a ball' (ie a cogent argument) it is hard to do otherwise.

If you are convinced of the merits of OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) then surely Paul's negativity, if misplaced, is a boon - creating the opportunity to buy more shares at a discount?

rick

"England is my first language" .. said no English man ever.

14th Feb '19

You really don't get sarcasm do you! LMAO.

One last point.

“The CEO seemed to suggest (in a video) that products were developed in Spain, by students who were paid £30k p.a. salaries.”

The £30k was for renting Lab space, nothing to do with salaries or students! It was for cost saving (labs in the UK are very expensive) but hey, lets not let facts get in the way.

Anyway I’m done. Sorry to criticise your prophet but he’s made a mistake, well quite a few actually.

“The mind is like a parachute, only of use when it’s open!”

If anyone would like to know the truth about OPTI I suggest you head over to lemming investors, it’s very informative. (I would mention Shareprophets but dont want to get abused!)

Hope my English has improved a little.

Ta ta

(Or should it be TATA one of those small companies OPTI does business with?)

peterg

2. The shake didn't work for him, he says "So any weight loss from using this product comes entirely from a shake having fewer calories than a regular meal." Again factually incorrect.

On what basis are you claiming this is factually incorrect, Toyin.

The whole point about OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI), and one reason I wouldn't touch it is that it is not a Pharma, and not covered by any of the regulation and requirements to prove efficacy that real drug companies have. As has been said it's a lifestyle company. It's selling dreams. That maybe profitable, or not, but that's a different issue. But I'd very much doubt they have any evidence that the mode of action of their shake is other than being fewer calories.

Seriously, do some research and stop taking one persons word for granted. I have over two hundred pages with data and facts on OPTI, yes facts! Please see below for one small snippet of information which blows your statement out the water. Stop defending, it’s getting embarrassing for you all now!

SlimBiome(R) granted medical device status and CE mark
OptiBiotix Health plc (AIM: OPTI), a life sciences business developing compounds to tackle obesity, high cholesterol and skin care, announces that its award winning SlimBiome(R) has been granted medical device status and a CE mark. This allows SlimBiome(R) to be :-
i. Freely marketed as a medical device to all countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) and markets with mutual recognition agreements (e.g. Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand)
ii. Follow shortened medical product registration procedures in other international markets (e.g. China, United Arab Emirates)
iii. Make medicinal or medical claims supported by clinical studies
iv. Extends the application of SlimBiome(R) from food products into high value medical products
CE marked products will be manufactured in Europe and sold in boxes of 30 single dose sachets as SlimBiome(R) Medical to pharmacies and major retailers as a clinically proven solution to promote weight loss. Independent clinical studies at a number of universities have shown that when compared to a control group, consumers who took SlimBiome(R) :-
-- Feel fuller and are less hungry
-- Experience less food cravings
-- Change their food choice to eat less sweet and fatty foods
In addition to clinical studies, independent consumer surveys have shown that 100% of customers who used SlimBiome(R) in OptiBiotix's GoFigure(R) products lost weight, on average 2-3lbs per week, but most importantly they experienced a relief from hunger pangs, leading to easier and more successful dieting.
SlimBiome(R) has attained two industry awards: Weight Management Ingredient of the Year (Vitafoods 2018) and the award for 'Best Functional Ingredient for Health and Well Being' (Food Matters 2017).
Stephen O'Hara, CEO of OptiBiotix, commented: "We are excited that after two years of working with manufacturers and European regulatory bodies, SlimBiome(R) has been granted medical device status and a CE mark. This is a significant achievement as it extends the application of SlimBiome(R) from food products into high value medical products and opens up access to consumer healthcare and pharmaceutical markets. SlimBiome(R) Medical can be used by itself, or as part of a calorie restriction diet to reduce hunger and food cravings to improve compliance, and help users achieve sustainable weight loss. We are delighted that we now have a number of clinical studies showing SlimBiome's(R) effectiveness, a large IP portfolio, two industry awards, and now a medical device registration and CE mark. These are clear differentiators from other weight loss products which we hope will contribute substantive revenues to OptiBiotix's growth in the months and years ahead."

brballs

While I don't currently agree with the investment case or your tone here, I've decided to try some scuttlebutt and ordered some shakes. Will report back.

I hope you're not relying on studies like this one?

https://optibiotix.online/pages/slimbiomescience

Where the placebo group started with lower food cravings than the experimental group, and ended at the end of the trial with roughly comparable results? And the placebo fat intake at an ad libitum breakfast for the placebo group increased by about as much as the trial group decreased, but in both cases far less than the standard deviation. This stuff meaningless, and highlights the difference between real studies and getting CE because you can show it's not likely to make things any worse.

Flitty

This comment has been moderated

-4

That was tweeted today 2 hrs ago by shareprophets I have screenshots.

mojomogoz

WOW!

I know nothing about OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) ....

I have no interest in finding out. Its not possible to be informed on everything and in markets opinions are often under-informed, however...

The vociferousness and spite with which some people are seeking to defend OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) is real red flag to me. I would now only be interested in doing work on this stock in the event that either revenues increase astronomically or share price falls a lot (with some revenue growth too).

My experience tells me when people get this angsty there's something amiss.

Ciao

-1

Elrico

Meanwhile, a more measured approach.

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2019/02/optibiotix-health-paul-scott-hatchet-job.html

Edward Croft

I do think the OptiBiotix drama is all quite fun.

We've got it labelled as a Speculative Sucker Stock, on a StockRank of 7. So clearly it's a future value play... but near term returns are going to be highly volatile.

Paul is entitled to whatever view he wants. Tom is entitled to whatever view he wants.

Buyers/Sellers make a market. There's no need to argue about it - just buy and sell at each other!

I'm closing this thread.

Jack Owen

I have been following OPTI for years and have been to few of its lunch meetings. Deal after deal have been announced for as long as I can remember, but no material revenue has been forthcoming... Perhaps the lack of meaningful revenues is partly due to miniscule amounts used in the production process. As for Tom W he is just an uncouth bully, who just gets personal and insulting if anyone disagrees with his views, which is pathetic. Of course OPTI is over valued, insanely so, for where it is in its development cycle.

Small Cap Value Report (Wed 13 Feb 2019) - SOS, CWD, MLVN, SDI, OPTI, CER

ZANE

Countrywide (LON:CWD)

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Paul Scott

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