Small Cap Value Report (Wed 25 Mar 2020) - HFD, WGB, DTG, VCP
Good morning, it's Paul here with the SCVR for Weds.
Estimated timings - probably a little shorter report than usual, I should be done by the 1pm official finish time.
Update at 12:52 - today's report is now finished. Thanks for the kind reader comments, much appreciated.
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Coronavirus & me
Firstly though, apologies for my absence of late. I started to feel unwell 9 days ago. I've rented a bedroom in my best friend John's house in Islington for about 20 years now. 4 of us (including his Mum) share the house, and it's very convenient and pleasant for me to have a London base. One by one, we started to fall ill last week, with coronavirus-like symptoms. John's Mum is the eldest, at 74, and she had to be hospitalised. The hospital confirmed that she tested positive for coronavirus, therefore it stands to reason we've probably all got it. As things stand, she's in intensive care, on a respirator, with things looking dicey, we're desperately hoping that she pulls through. It's striking how much more serious the virus is for older people, and we're regretting not having properly isolated her. If any of your relatives are questioning the need for isolation, please forward them this article.
As regards for me, I've had a range of expected symptoms, but won't run through all of that. In a nutshell it's just like being hit by a bus. You don't have any energy or physical/mental capacity to do anything, except lie in bed almost 24/7. Today's the first day that I've felt up to writing a report, so my plan is to write sections slowly, then take naps! We'll see how we get on.
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Market conditions
Unprecedented, I've never known anything like it. There are echoes of what it was like after 9/11 (when all the travel shares crashed), and at the worst point in the 2008 financial crisis, but the speed & severity of this crash has been astonishing, and horrible to witness. I chronicled the early stages of coronavirus here in these reports. My strategy was to take it seriously, and hedge my longs with various short positions (on travel companies, and on the Dow Index). That back-fired initially, but over the last few weeks it has very much saved my bacon. Hence whilst my existing portfolio of long positions is basically smashed to pieces, I have at least had a flow of profits come from hedging positions (shorts) that has provided a fresh pot of money which I've been using to snap up bargains. Despite very difficult economic conditions, I think this is an amazing buying opportunity right now - very selectively of course. I say that because over the next few months we should see the virus peak, then recede, and economic activity return to more normal levels.
I think it might take a year or two for corporate earnings to recover, and all current forecasts have really gone out of the window. However, I'm looking at lots of fundamentally sound companies, and salivating over how cheap their shares have become. The various Govt schemes to pay wages, suspend business rates, guarantee loans, and allow time to pay for VAT/PAYE/NICs should enable most at risk companies to survive. So much stimulus is being thrown at economies by Govts worldwide, that it's bound to have some positive effects.
Therefore, I think this is a time to be bold, and pick up once-in-a-lifetime bargains.
EDIT: I should emphasise that I'm expecting 2020 to be a complete wipe-out for profits. So I'm expecting literally everything to warn on profits, that's a given. My point is that share prices have already adjusted for this, and once the market can see light at the end of the tunnel, then it begins pricing in a recovery. Also, we should expect dividends to be widely cut or pulled altogether. Hence lots more bad news, but I think we're getting to the stage where the bad news is now priced-in. Many companies will need to repair their balance sheets in due course too, so there is danger from dilutive fundraises.
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Halfords (LON:HFD)
Share price: 65p (up 8% today, at 08:14)
No. shares: 199.1m
Market cap: £129.4m
As a retailer, then obviously Halfords will be feeling the impact of Govt mandated store closures from recently. No surprise here then:
Whilst we are confident that the post-pandemic future of the business remains strong, trading in the near term is likely to be severely impacted....
This bit is noteworthy, as a positive;
We have been designated by the Government as a provider
of essential services and so we have the legal flexibility to remain open
across the entire business. [Paul: highly significant I would say]
As it currently stands, our Autocentres
garages and Mobile vans are open and, within Retail, we are working
through a plan to provide partial store coverage from later this week.
Current trading - this first bit is only of passing interest, because events have since moved on;
Recent trading has been in line with expectations, and, in fact, very
strong in the last couple of weeks, but delivery of the FY20 profit
outturn is dependent on sales performance in the final two weeks of the
financial year.
Given the latest Government
guidance we believe there is a high likelihood that sales will drop
sharply and, if so, that the shortfall will have an impact on
profitability, such that FY20 underlying profit before tax, on a 52-week
and pre-IFRS16 basis, could be at the lower end of, or slightly below, the
current guidance range of £50-55m.
Again, that doesn't really matter, because we're moving into different circumstances now.
Guidance -
At this early stage in the pandemic, it is not possible to provide
meaningful guidance on earnings in FY21. Our focus now is on taking every
step necessary to secure future value for colleagues and shareholders.
Despite an improvement in recent sales performance, we expect that volumes
could now see a material reduction. We have modelled a range of disruption
scenarios, with our median scenario assuming significant sales declines
for the three-month period from April to June, followed by weakness for
the remaining nine months. Over the course of the full year, this would
result in a sales decline of 25% (c. £300m) with the most material impact
being seen in the first quarter of the new financial year.
At least it mentions shareholders, and not stakeholders (which can often be code for meaning that shares might be worthless).
It's clear from the above that a 25% drop in sales would have a devastating impact on the bottom line. I think we're likely to see horrendous losses from retailers in 2020, and I'm really not tempted to punt in this sector. Other than Next, which I have bought recently at around 4000p per share, because it's the best in class and sells half online.
Cash is king in current circumstances. Looks like Halfords is OK for the time being;
The Group has access to substantial liquidity through a £180m revolving
credit facility (RCF) and a £20m overdraft facility, provided by a
syndicate of major banks, expiring in September 2022. We have drawn down
on the RCF in full and now have approximately £118m of cash on deposit.
Total liquidity is therefore £138m, including the overdraft facility. The
Group continues to expect that it will satisfy its covenant requirements
at the FY20 year-end. We are in active dialogue with our existing lending
syndicate to provide additional flexibility to support Halfords through
this period of uncertainty.
Sounds like it wants to increase bank facilities. Given the Govt guarantee scheme, hopefully that should be do-able.
The following are all common sense actions to preserve cash;
• Suspension of the dividend, resulting in a cash saving of
approximately £24m in FY21.
• As announced by the UK Government, business rate relief for the whole
of FY21. This currently applies to the retail estate only, saving
approximately £26m per year.
• Negotiations with landlords regarding rent relief, including an
immediate switch to monthly payments from quarterly.
• Where stores and garages are closed, we will access Government support
on salary payments.
• Reduced purchases of goods not for resale (GNFR), including lower
marketing spend.
• Postponing capital commitments: Our capital spend for FY21 will be
well below current guidance of £40-60m. We are currently planning for
capital spend in FY21 to be in the range of £10-15m, but this will
remain under review as the situation evolves.
• Optimising working capital, including changes to the timing and amount
of stock purchases.
• Deferral of VAT payments to March 2021.
My opinion - I would have liked to have done some modelling of various scenarios for retailers & hospitality businesses, but haven't been well enough to slave over any hot spreadsheets.
Generally speaking, when unforeseen events force store closures, the financial impact is absolutely crippling - because a fixed cost base has nothing to fund it. That said, I think the Govt actions are probably enough to enable companies like Halfords to tread water, at least in terms of cashflow. What state their finances will be in, once business returns to normal, is anybody's guess.
I'm giving this one a wide berth for now.
Walker Greenbank (LON:WGB)
Share price: 31p (down 11% today, at 09:01)
No. shares: 71.0m
Market cap: £22.0m
(at the time of writing, I hold a long position in this share)
Walker Greenbank PLC (AIM: WGB), the luxury interior furnishings group, announces the following update in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, including the measures the Company is taking to protect its employees and mitigate risks to its business.
Its 2 UK factories, and some showrooms, are now closed.
Trading in the current financial year [Paul: 31 Jan 2021] started well and was in line with the Board's expectations but Covid-19, and government measures in our key markets to prevent the spread of the virus, is now impacting our trading outlook. It is difficult for us to quantify the likely impact of Covid-19 at this stage. The Company is, therefore, withdrawing financial guidance until visibility on the impact of Covid-19 improves.
I think it's safe to assume that current year results are likely to be terrible. I'm just assuming that to be the case for all companies.
Cost-cutting & cash preservation measures are being taken.
It sounds as if the company has access to aequate liquidity for now;
The Group had net cash as at 31 January 2020 of approximately £1 million, although this has now moved to a seasonal net debt position. The Group has headroom in its £12.5 million banking facility, an uncommitted £5 million accordion facility and discussions with its bank have been supportive. To further preserve cash, the Board does not intend to propose payment of a final dividend for the year ended 31 January 2020.
My opinion - as with most shares right now, it's not possible to value WGB on an earnings multiple basis.
The way I look at things, once the dust has settled and business has returned to normal, then this company should be worth several times the £22m market cap. It's soundly financed, hence I see little risk of it going bust.
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Trading or investing?
We're seeing some absolutely bizarre price movements at the moment, both up and down. The way I'm approaching things, is that my normal approach (which is generally buy & hold for 2+ years, for generally quite small & often fairly speculative shares) has really gone out of the window. I'm seeing this as an opportunity to buy higher quality shares, at bombed our prices. Hence I'm broadening out into some mid and even larger caps, as well as picking up irrationally cheap small caps.
For example, a share that's been on my wish list for a while, is Dart (LON:DTG) - a strange time to be buying an airline, you might quip. You'd be right! But my view is that DTG's balance sheet is so unusually strong, that it should survive without a Govt bailout. That could open up all sorts of positive opportunities, as competition flounders. I think people will be itching to go on holiday once coronavirus is in retreat, I know I am!
To me, DTG is the stand-out buy for recovery in that sector. As mentioned here in my disastrously early buying spree on 13 Mar 2020, I got it into my head that the market had bottomed out, closed all my shorts, and bought up lots of things that I thought looked cheap, including some DTG at about 880p per share. Anyway, that turned out to be the quickest quarter of a million quid that I've managed to blow recently - in just 2 days. Not just on Dart, that was the total damage to my Spreadex account in 2 days from my jumping the gun. Anyway, there we go.
Meanwhile Dart had absolutely plummeted, and was now down to something like 400p or less. Spreadex closed me out, as my account had moved onto margin call, and I wasn't well enough to answer the phone at the time. The next morning, DTG warned on profit (hardly surprising) and it dropped as low as about 200p. So by closing me out beforehand, Spreadex had actually helped. I read through the RNS, and concluded there was nothing particularly untoward. The price was now 300p, so I bought back in.
Anyway, where we are now, is that the price has doubled to about 600p. So I've sold. My point being that, if things do rebound unusually strongly, then I don't see any problem with banking the profits. Prices are so volatile, that we don't know where they're going. There's a lot to be said for being nimble and flexible in chaotic market conditions. It's quite normal for there to be extremely powerful rallies in bear markets. I don't think this is a time to be standing on principle. If the market presents a profitable selling opportunity, then I'm minded to grab it. The long term can look after itself.
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Victoria (LON:VCP)
Share price: 163p (up 9% today, at 12:32)
No. shares: 125.4m
Market cap: £204.4m
Victoria PLC (LSE: VCP) the international designers, manufacturers and distributors of innovative flooring...
Trading sounds OK, but bear in mind that coronavirus would probably only have just caught the tail end of this period, so this may not be a realistic overall view;
... despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which has impacted recent trading conditions, the Group expects that performance for the financial year ending 28 March 2020 will be broadly in line with market expectations.
It goes on to say that it's not possible to give guidance for FY 03/2021.
This part of the announcement reassures over the survival of the business. I think this is an excellent format, giving specific reasons. The point about bond financing, and operational gearing, are very important;
Not an Existential Threat
The Board, however, is clear that the situation does not present an existential threat to Victoria. Whilst short term trading will be affected, the long-term outlook for the Group remains positive.
There are a number of key reasons that underpin the Board's assertion in making this statement:
1. Victoria enjoys comparatively low operational gearing across its business. Of our annual operating cost base, approximately;
· 54% of such costs are wholly variable with revenue. This includes raw materials, energy, and freight.
· 36% is semi-variable (which the Board defines as being capable of being significantly changed within 60 days) such as direct labour, logistics, and marketing expenditure.
· 10% is fixed.
2. The Group's supply chain is highly diversified and invariably localised to the key manufacturing plants. Our access to raw materials is secure.
3. Victoria is fortunate to have a highly experienced and motivated operational management team who have a track record of successfully navigating through deep economic downturns. Many of our managers have been in the industry for 30 years or more and the value of this experience is enormous.
4. The wide geographic spread of both our manufacturing operations and, more importantly, our customers means that the virus's impact on Group revenue (and its subsequent recovery) is likely to occur at varying times and not simultaneously. This is important.
5. Shareholders will recall that in July 2019 and again in January 2020 Victoria issued a total of €500 million of Senior Secured Notes ("bonds"). These bonds are not due before July 2024 and, in themselves, carry no maintenance financial covenants.
6. Victoria has a strong balance sheet with sufficient cash on hand to support the business in even the most severe scenarios we have modelled. That said, we are taking every precaution to protect the liquidity of the Group. In addition to direct internal actions, we are in the process of accessing various Government schemes in our different countries of operation to help increase our cost base flexibility and mitigate adverse cash flow impacts.
7. The output of our internal stress-testing of the business (discussed in more detail below).
As a result, the Group goes into the uncertainty of the next few months from a position of considerable strength. However, as Darwin stated, those who survive "are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change." Therefore, our managers have been willing to think the unthinkable and act decisively and promptly to protect their business - particularly its cash position - as the impact will, in the short term, be significant.
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For these reasons, I would actually be interested in considering a possible punt on Victoria. Its secure funding means that it should be able to trade normally through this crisis, without having to worry about potential insolvency. But the trouble is, what would earnings end up looking like? Probably pretty grim. It's likely to survive, but it wouldn't surprise me if FY 03/2021 is a write-off year, maybe even loss-making? So thinking about it, why get involved at all? I think I've just talked myself out of buying any of these!
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That's all I can manage for today. See you tomorrow!
Regards, Paul.
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107 comments
Hi Paul, Sorry to hear about you and your households plight; hearing about your situation is distressing but glad to hear you are better and back in action. Wishing your friend and his mum a speedy recovery.
You and Graham's efforts in producing the SCVP are HUGELY appreciated.
Great to have you back Paul, terrible timing to have positions moving violently when you are so ill. Could I suggest you get tested? I suspected already the daily numbers released on C19 are way understated, but by getting tested at least you would bring more accuracy to the figures if it was confirmed.
Hope you get stronger every day and feel heaps better....Also thoughts to your friend and his Mum....
Looking forward to tomorrow’s reports....Scary but interesting times...Makes stock watching almost compulsive
welcome back paul we all now know what we have to look forward to on a share point did you take out an suk2 - I did and i think it was your recommendation
Wonderful to have you back Paul and glad to see you are on the mend.
And to hear that you are bearing up in the current market and still have some dry powder.
I echo the thoughts of others in hoping all the best for your house mate.
It's not total lock down in the air. Checking Heathrow arrivals Rome, Madrid, Paris, USA, Sao Paulo , Newcastle upon Tyne and many more etc. Seems at odds with what's happening on the ground.
I am so sorry to hear of your and your household's illness. I pray you all make a full and speedy recovery. These truly are unprecedented, strange and scary times making it almost impossible to plan and structure any portfolio especially one with only 5 years to go until retirement. God bless and good luck to all.
Hi Paul,
Good to see you back up and running. Hope you and your love s make a full recovery.
Get well Paul and good luck to your friends.
Really appreciate the efforts you are making and your upbeat tone...........glass half full has got us through tough times in the past. SCVR is a great tonic in this lick down so, thanks to all and go carefully
Paul..So Sorry to hear you have been unwell and others close to you..Best wishes to all for a full recovery and thanks for all you do on here.
Paul,
Welcome back and best wishes to you, your friend and his mother for a full and speedy recovery. I have always enjoyed reading your and Graham's reports, particularly your more general comments, and have found them very useful in helping me make decisions about my own portfolio.
This is probably in the too-good-to-be-true box but is evidence of the amount of time, money and effort that is being put in to deal with this situation
https://theface.com/life/oxvent-prototype-ventilator-health-nhs-covid-19
I know Andrew Farmery and would be confident that their product works. Whether it will be the design that's selected is another matter. No doubt there are many others out there competing to provide solutions to other aspects of the problem. This doesn't feel like a problem that the human race can't solve with enough resources applied to it. We are inventive in ways that are almost unimaginable to people like me.
For that reason, I wouldn't want to be short as, absent this rather all-consuming current issue, the world economies were doing pretty nicely. and you can be sure governments will throw even more money at it once a solution appears.
so sorry to learn of your condition and I do hope your friend’s mother makes a good recovery. Being in the same age group myself, I am basically self isolating for as long as possible,no matter what the Government may advise.
Get well soon
There's a lot of talk about how China and South Korea have been dealing with this virus crisis. Here is a flavour of how the authorities are, according to the figures, dealing very effectively controlling and suppressing the outbreak in Vietnam.
https://vietnamnews.vn/society/654133/frontline-doctor-among-seven-new-covid-19-patients-total-hits-141.html
This degree of volatility seems to require day-trader mode mentality. I haven't got the funds or stomach for that. No skin in the game for quite a while.
Sorry to hear you have been unwell Paul - welcome back.
UK stimulus package = £330 bn. UK GDP 2018 = £2.4 trn. Stimulus / GDP = 14%
USA stimulus package = $2 trn. US GDP 2018 = $20 trn. Stimulus / GDP = 10%
Morgan Stanley predicted fall in US GDP in Q2 2020 = 30%
Goldman predicted fall in US GDP = 24%
St Louis Fed President predicted fall in US GDP = 50%
In the context of those predictions, the announced stimulus is a sticking plaster. US national debt is $23 trn. So any significant increase in that brings other risks. In the UK national debt is £1.8 trn so a similar problem.
The lesser of two evils may be to accept the inevitable overwhelming of the respective health services with all that entails in terms of politically unacceptable newsflow. We already have plenty of evidence that our medical resources are inadequate to cope even with this early stage of the pandemic. The current policies merely delay the inevitable unacceptable newsflow. That is why Trump is talking about ending the lock-downs even while the US growth rates are showing the steepest curve of any major economy.
I see interest rates low for a long-time.and probable stagflation caused by policies that harm industry at the same time as too loose a money-supply. In this environment, gold is the safest bet and with zero or negative real rates the cost of holding is negligible. The Royal Mint are quoting five days to open an account.
Welcome back, Paul. Best wishes for a full recovery soon.
I am not a complete newbie but in someways this market has made me feel so. A question: As I understand it one of the pressures that caused the severe drop in small caps was/is lack of buyers. So if you wanted to sell in the market (for whatever reason) you couldn’t get a price so stocks were marked down.
Could not the same apply on the other side. That at the moment people who were going to sell have sold (so there are relatively few sellers) and that there are some bottom fishers (I am not one at the moment people are in cash) and that relatively small buying requests could lead to large increases in price asked by MM’s.
Genuine question as I am struggling to see how sentiment (ie what has caused the change) to swing from where it was last Wednesday and where it is today?
Thx anybody?
Hi Purpleski,
If you haven't, and anyone else who hasn't id recommend this from PI World about how market markers operate.
For me a lot of the crazy price swings and the large spread is explained here.
https://www.piworld.co.uk/2019/11/29/the-market-maker-part-1-spencer-crooks-ex-director-of-market-making-at-winterfloods/
But even on the large caps crazy, 3i Infrastructure, very stable, having trades down 26% on 23rd & back up 25% yesterday. That I don't understand. Some huge ETF's had massive spreads, that I dont understand either. At points I think the market stopped functioning properly.
Thank you. Will check out the video.
Sentiment has changed because of the continued and latest actions at the Fed who yesterday essentially threw the kitchen sink at this problem. This rally could carry on for another day or so; it might, possibly, (but imho very unlikely) turn into something else but it is not a new bull market. I'd suggest that if you have any dross that has had a boost, to take the chance and sell it.
Glad you are back Paul and recovering. Sending best wishes to John's mum.
Welcome back Paul and great to hear you are over the worst and best wishes to your friends mum. Was hard getting her admitted? Was her local hospital coping?
On
“As regards for me, I've had a range of expected symptoms, but won't run through all of that. In a nutshell it's just like being hit by a bus. You don't have any energy or physical/mental capacity to do anything, except lie in bed almost 24/7. Today's the first day that I've felt up to writing a report, so my plan is to write sections slowly, then take naps! We'll see how we get on.”
Of the 6 people I know that have almost certainly contracted COVID19 the effects range from she did not know she had had it (and of course may not have done) but has lost her sense of taste, through a bit rough to bad flu sleeping 16 hours a day and taking paracetamol (don’t take ibuprofen). So I think for those under 60 (70?) the symptoms are very wide.
With regard to:
“I think this is an amazing buying opportunity right now - very selectively of course. I say that because over the next few months we should see the virus peak, then recede, and economic activity return to more normal levels.“
I hope you are right but at the moment I don’t have your confidence to go back in though I have remained partially invested and I think I have (at the moment I am doing little on investing front apart from read SCVR as I needed a break) recovered about a sixth of my losses from the bottom but I am not sure that markets are discounting what it will be like for the US (the world?) to have a contraction of GDP of 24% in the second quarter and will it be only 24%?
There has been a lot of strength in the market over the past two days but I struggle to see on what basis.
Best wishes.
Michael
Paul, just to echo everyone elses' sentiments, I'm glad your on the mend. We have all missed your contributions to the SCVR!
Glad to know that you are on the mend and all the best to you flatmates. Re your point about your cases being unreported the corollary of that is that the percentage death rates reported would be higher than the de facto percentage.
regards, Andyin
Sorry to hear about your problems Paul here's hoping you get better soon, and give our best regards to John's mum.
To everyone out there in Stockloland KEEP SAFE
Hi Paul
Sorry to hear you are in the wars and please pass on a wink to John's Mum from me! This viral pandemic sure is comparable to a war in more ways than one!
God help all of us but hey ho, looking at parts of the world, Syria, Yemen and Myanmar, Gaza strip, to name a few, we are very lucky considering.
I tend to agree with the bearish views below even though the world is throwing stimulus at the markets; it's just about keeping one's head above the water line. This may just give us enough time for the virus to subside, although the USA is next inline for the onslaught!
I thoroughly enjoy Graham's and your SCVR editorials and look forward to reading more in the future. Take care.
Best Simon
and Jack B's
Hey Paul, Best wishes with your recovery.
I would actually argue "its in the price" are very dangerous words. I think its impossible to know what exactly is in the price at the moment. For starters you need to understand who needs support and how it comes. SSP clearly don't want it... it will have implications for years.
Whilst I agree you can write off 2020, capex and discretionary spend, corporate and consumer, is likely to be affected into 2021. Despite govt activity capital will be scarce. Portfolios don't reflect these changes yet. I agree there are likely bargains already there but plenty more will emerge and make the years that follow, 2022 and onwards, very interesting indeed.
For now there will be rolling acceptance that positions held need to be altered, and the rallies offer up opportunities, to adjust to the new landscape.
Agree should bounce back strongly new wallpaper and bed linen for all!
Hi Paul, welcome back and best wishes for John's Mum.
All the best to you Paul and your loved ones.
I'm sorry to put a damper on the optimism today, but I think this bear market will continue for a long time. Until a vaccine has been found, tested and manufactured in huge numbers, which is probably at least a year away, there is no way to slow the spread of this terrible virus in the world's population apart from strict lockdown measures that will have to continue for many months and will devestate huge sectors of the global economy. That will be bad news for stock markets everywhere in the world. I don't think the recent falls in stock markets have fully discounted that yet.
"Until a vaccine has been found, tested and manufactured in huge numbers, which is probably at least a year away, there is no way to slow the spread of this terrible virus ... apart from strict lockdown measures"
That's not true. South Korea have not had strict lockdown measures and yet they have slowed the virus. They have done it through widespread testing and contact tracing. We still have the opportunity to learn.
It is also possible that other ways of tackling the virus will help to address the problem in advance of a vaccine, particularly drug treatments using existing drugs.
This is not Donald Trump seaking and I don't claim that all is rosy, but things are not quite as bad as you describe.
Edit: Yesterday saw the release of a new report from a key team based at Imperial called
Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
The team said:
“At this difficult time, these results suggest that, after containment, a carefully managed and monitored relaxation of effective large-scale lockdowns may be possible even before an effective vaccine is available,”
They also stressed that success was critically dependent on widespread testing and contact tracing.
"This is not Donald Trump speaking and I don't claim that all is rosy, but things are not quite as bad as you describe."
I hope you're right, but I fear that stock markets will be below their present levels in a year's time. Of course, they will eventually recover over the years ahead as they always have from previous bear markets.
Please note that I wasn't attempting to predict the stock market. But yes, for my money it is more likely to be higher in a year's time than lower, even though we probably haven't seen the absolute low yet.
This virus has spread far too widely in countries such Italy, Spain, UK, France, Switzerland, USA etc. to even attempt to do anything like South Korea did. This has not been contained, it is too late, only thing to do is delay.
South Korea did "the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain,"
I hope you are wrong. It will be interesting to see if China's strategy works which seems to be:
1) 'lockdown' to massively reduce the level of new infections
2) quarantine everyone who enters the country
3) follow South Korea (tracking contacts of any new infections, mass testing)
If it does, we could follow suit and wait for the vaccine
herbie,
Yes, CV19 has certainly spread too far now in Europe, and elsewhere for the S Korean model to be used now. However, we can be fairly confident that current measures taken will lead to a signficant drop in new cases in some weeks. At that point we have to tackle the issue of how to relax restrictions without leading to a second peak, as they are doing now in China. Their experience will be key, and hopefully learnt from by the UK and other, govts. But it's at that time that using the S Korean testing and tracing model may well prove to be particularly valuable - if we are prepared by then to test on the scale needed. Better still, of course, would be a viable antibody test, which would allow identification of those who had been infected and were now immune.
totally agree, I can’t see this as anything but a relief rally in a bear market. I had reduced by ftse short at 4850 but have been buying back in on the way back up. US job figures could be significant tomorrow. Only small caps I’m in at the moment are Covid-19 related.
I think if the indices rally much more, then I'll probably be re-opening some shorts to hedge my longs again. As you say, big rallies are the norm in a down market, and we could yet re-test the lows, I have no idea. It's definitely worth being flexible right now, rather than fixating on one expected outcome.
Paul could you give some examples as to how you do this, what levels you place orders at ie how far from the actual indice level etc - would be very useful - glad you are on the mend sounds awful
Steve
which instruments do you use: spread bet or buying option contracts?
Liquidity bad in small caps currently- you can get in ,but might not get out so quickly
Best wishes Paul - don't overdo things. I lost my mum about 4 weeks ago when storm Dennis was about and in some ways she was lucky to miss the current carnage.
Glad to hear you are on the mend Paul, take it easy and all the best to you and yours.
NM
Good morning Paul
Sorry to hear that you and your friends have been unwell and in particular I sincerely hope that John's mother makes a good recovery. Clearly the imperative at the moment is and has always been, as we, the investment community often forget, health over wealth.
Unfortunately one cannot ignore the economic impact, which brings me back to investing, mainly in small caps. I also hold Walker Greenbank (LON:WGB), principally for the intrinsic value of its brands. The projected NAV is somewhere in excess of 90p. At some point it is my intention to add to my holding and in general I agree with your assessment. The nagging negative is the defined benefits scheme which according to Edison had stated liabilities of £77m at year end 2019 and to which the company makes an annual £2m contribution. Given the reduction in yields and decline in equity valuations this is a concern.
Having said that I have no intention of selling and will likely add if Mr Market makes me what I think is a very silly offer.
All the best for a continuing return to health.
Glad you feeling better and hope everyone in the house makes it though the other side.
The market feels in a better place but cant see me buying until we have a clearer picture of how things are in the UK and US. The NHS building a 2000 bed hospital feels like we have not hit the peak yet, i think we should know if we going become closer to Italy in next 7-10 days.
Felt lots of support at 5000 on FTSE is that the low point but would not be surprised see it slip back.
A Dr I know on the front line in Whitechapel tells me they are currently expecting peak time to be mid May, though that might change it’s the current thinking. They also said that the hospital is dealing with loads young people.
Paul, I’m glad you’re on the mend, thank you for putting the efforts in when you’re not feeling fully fit and I very much hope Johns mother recovers soon.
For my 2c I think this is a long term bear market, there is going to be much financial hardship and liquidation of assets to pay bills and living leading to personal assets plunging in value . I’m hoping for a good rally to go back to cash heavy.
Hi Paul, Glad to see that you are recovering and I hope John's Mum makes a speedy recovery. Cadbury's Caramel it it for the next few days (i.e. take it easy).
Best wishes
Welcome back Paul and good luck with your recovery. Also sincere best wishes to John and his mum, I hope she pulls through.
Best wishes, Paul and I hope your mate's Mom pulls through. I am in lockdown for three months as part of this shielding programme. My biggest worry at present (apart from the stock market) is getting my hands on some milk to put in my tea. Compared to your situation I have it easy.
Is this current stock market exuberance the real thing and a start of recovery or just a bear market rally? I have dipped a toe or three in the water to buy a couple of bargains, but I can't commit to going all in just yet.
Glad you're back and on the mend
Minervini's view as of yesterday.
"Today is bottom fishers bliss... IF you were fortunate enough NOT to fall for the previous 4 head fakes. Will the real low please stand up? We were due for a bounce. Let's see if the rally can hold and if it has any legs in coming days. Still just a rally within a bear market."
I have nibbled and taken a few long positions. Still 80% in cash.
Hi Paul,
Best wishes for your continued recovery and your whole house.
James
An announcement from Yourgene Health (LON:YGEN) seems to have escaped attention.
They have agreed on a manufacturing deal for a COVID-19 quick test kit.
Hi Paul,
Welcome back, and I'm so pleased to read that you are slowly on the mend. I do hope that John's mum recovers well too.
Please take things slowly and don't feel under any pressure to write more than you feel comfortable with. Health must come first. The markets will recover later - they always do.
Take care,
Steve
Welcome back Paul-true testimony to a professional ..
Keep safe and easy on yourself over the coming days and weeks. As an observer, much of what you are writing about now will be digested by the loyal Stocko members and therefore abbreviated synopsis are sufficient as you say DYR...
On a personal note, I would be interested to know what investing strategies you used to access your short positions -as it would seem many investors fail majestically when it comes to exiting such positions?
Keep safe.
Mark
Very best wishes to you all. And well done to the team for keeping SCVR going.
Paul. I hope you recover quickly. I have always appreciated your opinions and advice.
I am sorry to hear about your friend's mum. She is just a year or so younger than me. My scientist daughter tells me that only a small percentage of us oldies actually die from having it, so it is not a hopeless situation. I wish her well.
My wife and I have been self isolating for some weeks and we are glad we have.
Keep safe.
Paul -Welcome back and sorry to hear that you have been unwell but pleased you are recovering.Hope Johns mother recovers soon.Thanks once again for your stock market views.Your early anticipation of the severity of this virus and the possible financial consequences have helped me through this mess-I sold everything in February.Now I am looking to start to buy back but when-ever the problem!I am sure your views and the extremely well informed views of other contributors on this site will help me make good timing decisions.Best wishes for a full recovery .
Get well soon Paul. Thank you for doing this post, even though you are still not fully recovered.
Morning Paul,
Very pleased to read that you are recovering now.
Really hope John's mum pulls through soon.
Was wondering if you would take a look at Shearwater Group update today.
Pleasing TU including "new contract wins and existing customer upgrades"
Benefitting from the "seismic shift towards remote working".
I know you have a decent holding in IGP which operates in the same sector.
I hold both companies
Michael (AKA Focusrite!)
https://www.investegate.co.uk/...
Paul - best wishes for a speedy recovery to you all. Malta is in complete lockdown but i look forward to hosting you at the yacht club when normality retuns. Get well
Welcome Paul and great to have you back....I hope John's mum improves, and best wishes to you all here whose relatives and friends might be suffering right now.
Paul, I hope you are right about market conditions.
Yesterdays news.....PMI, worst data ever, (until June), half a billion in dividends cancelled in one day, and Britain on course for recession 'not seen in modern history'. Fortunately the markets are forward looking, the surge yesterday very welcome, and possibly anticipating a rapid recovery.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKBN21C0JE?rpc=401& - sell the rip!
Things can only get better according to Trump, it'll all be over by Easter. It's so under control there he's asking South Korea for help....he'll be asking North Korea next.
Crisis Over, Completely Detached from Reality, or Market Manipulation! Anyway, not to worry, whatever the forces influencing the markets are, we can take solace that there is a vaccine for the virus on the way called massive federal intervention.
Take care, stay safe.
Worth a read.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012049
glad you are on the mend paul , and best wishes to johns mum .
My partner is cancer sufferer and she ( which includes me ) has been grounded for 12 weeks and listening to your experiences, brings home the seriousness of this bloody virus.
Fantastic that you are upbeat for the future and see buying opportunities
Hope your recovery continues, and take as many naps as you need !!!
Great to hear you have recovered but I am sure you will be very fatigued for a few weeks, so take it easy. Hope John's mother is improving.
With best wishes
Best wishes to you Paul for a speedy recovery for all in your household
My morning smallcap tweet:
Victoria (LON:VCP) £K3C Sumo (LON:SUMO) Volution (LON:FAN) DFS Furniture (LON:DFS) Fastjet (LON:FJET) Animalcare (LON:ANCR) Biffa (LON:BIFF) Quarto Inc (LON:QRT) VP (LON:VP.) Wincanton (LON:WIN) Halfords (LON:HFD) Clipper Logistics (LON:CLG) Keller (LON:KLR) McBride (LON:MCB)
Victoria (VCP) guides FY to end March broadly in line with market expectations. Co has sufficient cash to support the business in even the most severe scenarios modelled. €500m of bonds not due till 2024.
K3 Capital (K3C) rev for first 10 months of FY up 29%, adj EBITDA £6.5m up 59%. Now fully expects a slowdown in revenues, suspending guidance & cutting costs. "Unlike 2009, the Company is in a very strong financial position with over £7m in bank reserves and no debt."
Sumo Group (SUMO) guides FY rev up 27%, adj EBITDA slightly ahead of expectations at £14.1m. Move to home working has caused some disruption and loss of efficiency but early indications are encouraging. Reasonable to expect some improvement in royalty income on games already published. Covid exposure primarily on the supply side with some potential loss of efficiency during the unprecedented restrictions delaying milestone payments.
Volution Group (FAN) has £74m undrawn credit maturing December 2022. Suspending div.
DFS Furniture (DFS) £70m of credit unused. Will seek additional financing facilities to cover the risk of an unwind of customer deposits. Cancelling div.
Fastjet (FJET) hit by S Africa lockdown. Zimbabwe banned non-essential travel. Only $2m cash.
Animalcare Group (ANCR) many veterinary practices in core markets that treat pets animals now handling emergency cases only. The Farm sector (25% of rev) appears to be less affected. Deferring div.
Biffa (BIFF) expects significant disruption to its operations which is expected to continue for several months. Expects very significant reduction in demand for Industrial & Commercial collection services plus reductions in volumes into some processing facilities in the Resources & Energy division. Extremely difficult to predict the impact of COVID. Guides end FY cash & unused credit of 150m. Cutting costs, passing div.
Quarto Group (QRT) gudes FY to end Dec rev down 9%, pretax $2.9m (-$0.6m). 'Pleased'. Not seen any material impact in trading but order volumes in the USA and UK have been dropping in recent days. Going concern - downside scenarios which may indicate the existence of a material uncertainty.
Vp (VP.) has traded satisfactorily since H1 but revenues have reduced in the latter part of March, expects this to continue. Has 'substantial headroom' in credit facilities.
Wincanton (WIN) guides FY U/L profit will be in line with market expectations. 64% of contracts are open book with Retail at over 80%. "This gives us a strong level of commercial protection against significant swings in Retail volumes." Has very substantial headroom in covenants. No guidance for this FY yet.
Halfords (HFD) trading in the near term is likely to be severely impacted. Recent trading was in line. FY U/L pretax could be at lower end or slightly below guidance of £50-55m. Has £118m of cash after drawing on credit line. Talks with existing lending syndicate to provide additional flexibility. Confident can operate within existing debt facilities throughout FY21.
Clipper Logistics (CLG) getting more business requests. "Group's contract mechanisms in the logistics sector both in the UK and Europe provide a good degree of profit protection and cash generation in the event of volume reductions, and this has resulted in only a modest impact on the Company's performance to date." Guides end FY credit headroom £30m and very substantial headroom against net debt covenant of 2.5x EBITDA.
Keller Group (KLR) In late March market conditions deteriorated swiftly but expects overall group performance in Q1 broadly in line with mgmt expectations. The situation becoming more challenging in North America. End Dec net debt £213m, EBITDA ratio of 1.2x cf covenant 3.0x. Substantial borrowing facilities available.
McBride (MCB) increased sales of cleaning producs. "Revenue improvements in the short term are likely to be tempered by reduced factory efficiencies, although we expect to see some benefit from lower raw material input costs in Q4...but as Europe progressively 'locks down' we may see further restrictions on our ability to operate factories to match demand levels." Cutting costs.
Many thanks for the sterling work!
I went through my portfolio several weeks ago and decided that Biffa (LON:BIFF) would be hardly affected - we still produce rubbish - and Clipper Logistics (LON:CLG) would be badly affected as so many of its customers aren't selling. Ho hum - wrong. Surprises at every turn.
Paul - sorry to hear that and hope all four of you make a good recovery. In your absence there has been much talk of statistics here. You say that John's mum tested positive on admission. Do I take it the other 3 of you weren't tested and so represent the unreported (the part of the iceberg beneath the water)?
Hi sharw,
That's right, the 3 of us here have not been tested, and are not included in any official statistics. Therefore, I reckon the official stats are probably greatly under-estimating the real number of coronavirus cases out there. Who knows how many householders there must be like ours, where we're in lockdown, just slowly recovering naturally from coronavirus without being on any official stats.
Regards, Paul.
Hi Paul, I think this will interest you.
An announcement from Yourgene Health (LON:YGEN) seems to have escaped attention.
They have agreed on a manufacturing deal for a COVID-19 quick test kit.
Not anymore looking at the chart!!
The statistics are completely unreliable for the reasons you mention.
An interesting study in the British Medical Journal 2 days ago - from Italy -already has firm evidence of 50-75% of coronavirus patients are completely asymptomatic! In addition a paper in JAMA (american) that looked at Italy, has strong evidence that the crazy high mortality percentages over there (currently 10%) are due to them testing only the very high risk and ill!! Go figure!
The statistics are completely unreliable for the reasons you mention.
It has been evident from day one that the numbers were total rubbish and this is part of the reason people have been behaving as they have, leading to Monday's lockdown. I had a phone discussion with my other half's 83 year old mother last weekend and she told me there were only 50-100 odd cases in the whole of the North West of England and so it didn't matter if she went to the shops on her own. What were her chances of getting it? Sometimes too much information is bad and the published number of cases are extremely misleading.
To be honest, from what I have read, they dealt with the Ebola virus outbreak in 2014 in West Africa better than we've reacted to and coped with Coronavirus, with extremely diligent and thorough contact tracing. Some people have been warning about this epidemic for years and making clear how unprepared most developed economies were for it. They were right, many governments were complacent and arrogant; assuming these things only ever happened in Africa and the Far East, and here we are.
I'm glad to hear you're on the mend Paul, and best wishes to your friends Mum. I had a flu-like illness very similar to the symptoms of Covid-19 in mid-January. Not so much of a fever but a really bad cough, muscle aches and it got onto my chest, it took ages to go and on its way I had 4-5 days where I could not taste and smell properly. I didn't give it to anyone else to my knowledge and so it probably wasn't Covid, but it does make me wonder when it first came to the UK? I bet it was weeks earlier than the first reported case.
All the best, Si
I agree and suspect the virus has been around for ages. There were over 4m people who travelled from the Hubei province, and at least some of these were in Europe in early Feb for Chinese New year. I know. I saw and co-mingled with many of them on a European winter break.
If many were asymptomatic, as was gradually being discovered in Wuhan, I don't know how any Govt could reasonably prepared for spread in those circumstances, though? It like it is the invisible man, and even early signs probably were mistaken for winter influenza.
So, in my view its has been spread around the tourist hot spots in Europe from Feb, and the galloping figures seen recently probably indicate we are much further along the curve than is realised. Only widespread antibody testing, which is urgently needed, will tell us the true denominator factor.
I came back from my trip, and suffered a 'cold' on return. This was the second cold of the winter which was unusual. I have asthma but it is well managed. But a cold usually means for me a cough, but this cough was harder to get off my chest. But no fever. So hard to tell. But I was well exposed for hours in the European hotel, and no doubt inadvertently in airport transit hubs on my return.
I will certainly buy a testing kit, if one becomes available. It will also be interesting to see how the Govt applies the testing programme for the 3m antibody testing kits it has purchased. It must want to ensure it understands the full statistical set of infection.
Forgive me for being a bit cynical. Has the government actually bought 3m testing kits?
I heard the Health Minister say he has "ordered 3.5m" but unfortunately the interviewer didn't ask when the first quantity would be delivered and when the order would be completed? The manufacturers might well have said something like "Thanks, we'll try and get the first 10,000 delivered by June".
Vague statements from politicians may prove to be meaningless. I hope we will be given clearer answers. This is the time when we need to be told the full truth on issues like this.
And the facts on PPE protection clothing are clear so far. Despite promises around two weeks ago that they were being delivered throughout the NHS, they were obviously incorrect as the equipment still hadn't arrived in many locations to WHO standards by yesterday.
I know the government have a difficult task. But they have to be careful to be making credible statements.
Potter12 etc You are right about ordering versus buying. I guess the supplier wanted money or at least promises up front. The experts I listened to at lunch time said that some form of antibody testing be available in weeks bur probably a few months....and then there is what the results will actually tell us. Immunity after a positive result? Partial immunity? Etc Etc. I don't want to sound depressing but I do want to be realistic. We are all more likely to beat it if we are realistic.
Forgive me for being a bit cynical. Has the government actually bought 3m testing kits? ... I know the government have a difficult task. But they have to be careful to be making credible statements.
In the last 30 minutes:
"Thousands of 15-minute home tests for coronavirus will be delivered by Amazon to people self-isolating with symptoms or will go on sale on the high street within days, according to Public Health England (PHE), in a move that could restore many people’s lives to a semblance of pre-lockdown normality.
Prof Sharon Peacock, the director of the national infection service at PHE, told MPs on the science and technology committee that mass testing in the UK would be possible by next week."
https://www.theguardian.com/wo...
timarr
"Thousands of 15-minute home tests for coronavirus will be delivered by Amazon to people self-isolating with symptoms or will go on sale on the high street within days, according to Public Health England (PHE), in a move that could restore many people’s lives to a semblance of pre-lockdown normality.
Prof Sharon Peacock, the director of the national infection service at PHE, told MPs on the science and technology committee that mass testing in the UK would be possible by next week."
Absolutely.
Many people are looking to government for explanation and clarity. I think they should be getting PHE to comment much more. The time for examining what went wrong and why will come much later, but in the meantime surely PHE should be explaining what test kits and PPE have been ordered, when they were ordered and when they will be delivered. I get the impression that the politicians are having to take the flack for PHE failings.
I note that there have been some complaints that some masks that were delivered had gone past their expiry date and that a new date had been added after testing to check the stock was still ok. I think that this just illustrates that it is pretty difficult to hold vast stockpiles of supplies when large quantities of it potentially may need to be binned because it doesn’t get used before it expires.
If an epidemic strikes and you’re not prepared you look like idiots. If an epidemic doesn’t strike and you have to write off vast amounts of stock you look like idiots. I seem to recall a lot of controversy about purchasing large quantities of Tamiflu that either didn’t work very well or never got used.
Thanks, Timar. This is good news. And so sensible to get Amazon to deliver. Given the supply of tests, I guess they are much the best at this kind of logistics.
Timar
Having checked the report you quoted, it looks like another very optimistic forecast, not a fact.
Watching Newsnight tonight, they showed clips of the minister a week or so ago confidently stating that large numbers of ventilators had been delivered. Then this week, it transpires that the figures were substantially exaggerated.
The promises on PPE are also being exposed as wishful thinking.
The public are being fed optimistic political spin rather than actual facts. This isn't good enough. It's a bit like hearing wildly optimistic sales forecasts from a company that we know won't deliver.
Simoan - From your description I would have thought it was Covid-19
Simoan - From your description I would have thought it was Covid-19
Whatever it was that I had, it was nowhere near as contagious as Covid-19 seems to be. I don't know anyone else that got it including my other half and colleagues at work. However, I can't remember ever having normal seasonal flu with such a bad dry cough. My other half commented at the time that it's the first time in the 20 years she's known me that I've used Benylin or any form of cough mixture.
It would be nice to get a test to find out though wouldn't it? No chance of that happening if they haven't even tested Paul.
All the best, Si
Si
In your opinion has the response (with the knock on effect of trashing the world economy for x quarters/years) been wrong? For example should self isolation have only applied to over 60’s or 70’s. If cases are out by a factor of 100 then we have in the UK a mortality rate of 0.05% (via Johns Hopkins data).
Bill Gates talked of the need to prepare 5 years ago at TedX and even now it has only had 16m views.
https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI
Si
In your opinion has the response (with the knock on effect of trashing the world economy for x quarters/years) been wrong?
No. If my parents and my friends in their 60's and 70's got seriously ill or died it would be horrific. The economy will recover in time, but you can't bring good people who had many years of useful life in front of them back from the dead. Trump is an idiot.
Bill Gates talked of the need to prepare 5 years ago at TedX and even now it has only had 16m views.
Yes, governments even ignored the richest man in the world. Isn't it pathetic that somewhere in the UK there wasn't a massive warehouse full of protection equipment for medical staff ready to go should a pandemic strike? How ridiculous that front line medical staff were having to go to DIY stores to buy decorators masks...
All the best, Si
Si
“Isn't it pathetic that somewhere in the UK there wasn't a massive warehouse full of protection equipment for medical staff ready to go should a pandemic strike? How ridiculous that front line medical staff were having to go to DIY stores to buy decorators masks...”
I think there is a large stockpile but it seems that at least part of the problem has been inefficient logistics getting the kit to the front line. I don’t think staff have been to DIY stores for masks.
Those stores sold out many weeks ago. I made some checks of on line stores myself several weeks ago and found some that had already said that supplies were being held back for the NHS. But the stores had almost universally sold out already anyway (e.g Screwfix, Wickes etc).
It appears that the Health Care Supply Association (HCSA) did tweet asking for help with visors and glasses though.
I think we need to be a bit careful that the media reporting may not be accurate.
I suspect that another issue is that as this progresses the need for PPE inevitably rises exponentially with the infection rate. Ministers and co may be right that they are delivering large numbers more, but they could be doing so and standing still. And it would be no surprise if hospital managments were looking down the road and much greater need and being very cautious about what they hand out.
I think there is a large stockpile but it seems that at least part of the problem has been inefficient logistics getting the kit to the front line.
That's all part of the same problem though isn't it? If the logistics aren't sorted then nothing else matters. The UK government were caught with their pants down is the long and short of it. It's not good enough.
I think we need to be a bit careful that the media reporting may not be accurate.
No need to tell me! I've been struck by how much the BBC has been used as part of the government propaganda machine this week. After all the youngsters were out and about last weekend, not a day has gone by this week without videos of 30 year old's pleading with others from hospital beds with tubes coming out of them, or even yesterday where there was a headline that a 21 year old girl had died. Of course, you're always going to get outliers, but if it works on the kind of brain dead young people that it was targeted at, then so be it.
Being cynical... maybe the BBC have seen this as an opportunity to help out UK Gov to ensure the scrapping of the license fee gets kicked into the long grass...
All the best, Si
So, nothing to do with PHE then?
Thx Si. Agreed.
Hi Dan,
Very interesting comment on the numbers and to be fair the Gvt have long being saying the numbers infected are understated by an order of magnitude - is there a title to the BMJ article you mentioned? I did a search but could not find it on the BMJ site - may be my unfamiliarity with the site navigation. Thanks
Is this it?
https://www.bmj.com/content/36...
yes
Thanks appreciated.
Hi Paul,
Glad to see you back.
A colleague of mine recently sent me this article from USA Today stating that Covid-19 remained on surfaces for up to 17-days on board the Diamond Princess which is considerably longer than the information being provided by government officials/experts at present which I believe is approx. 3-days.
"The CDC found traces of COVID-19 on surfaces in the cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship — 17 days after passengers had left the cabins."
USA Today Article - Diamond Princess Covid-19
Just more information to consider for the ongoing Covid-19 issue.
Likewise my anecdotal evidence (people I know) is 6 unreported cases (and Dr’s not being interested in gathering info let alone getting people into be tested to ensure better data for the decision makers to work with.)
I have no idea whether one can work out the likely number of cases from a sample?
Wishing you all a fast and full recovery .
Welcome back. Finger's crossed for John's mum.
My mother in a law is in a critical care unit at King's College. We're praying she pulls through.
Personal and poignant observation as always Paul, hope everyones outcome is a return to full health
As I seem now to sign off with everyone,
Keep Well
That's a very humbling post. Best wishes. Take care.
Good to have you back, much missed, there is no rush. Look after yourself and hopefully John's mum will be ok
Hi Paul,
Many thanks for updates please pass on all of my very best wishes to John and his Mum - some things are more important to worry about than shares and values at this point in time.
Take Care.