Good morning, it's Paul here with the SCVR for Wednesday.

Estimated timings - there's very little news in my sphere today, so it should be possible to finish by 1pm.
Edit - I got carried away with macro stuff, so need more time to finish the company sections, say by 3pm.
Edit at 15:03 - today's report is now finished.


The Re-opening Trade

This is a theme that I am currently focusing on. As the economy re-opens, then companies are coming alive again, and there could be some bargains around, if the consumer comes out and starts spending again. The market is clearly becoming more optimistic that consumers may be more prepared to get out and spend money, than previously thought. I think that seems correct, for these reasons;

Many people are tired of lockdown. Younger people in particular seem to be realising that (if they have no existing medical conditions and are normal weight) CV-19 presents little to no risk to them. Bournemouth beach was very busy yesterday evening, in the glorious sunshine. I don't see any fear in people's eyes any more, and my hunch is that people could flock to the shops once they re-open, having been deprived of an enjoyable activity for over 2 months. I also think people are getting used to queuing, distancing, and wearing a face mask if they want to. Plus there will be terrific bargains, as fashion retailers rush to clear out excess spring/summer inventories. I reckon we could see a surprisingly strong re-opening of the High Street, but of course that's guesswork at this stage.

Evidence from the USA - is that whilst sales are down, they're not down as much as feared, particularly in apparel I hear.

Bank balances - a friend kindly sent me an interesting article from Bloomberg, stating that during lockdown, Britons have been hoarding cash - because we've got nothing to spend it on! Other than takeaways, beer, and buying random junk on Amazon after consuming the beer! Oh, and gambling online. In March & April, household bank balances rose by £30bn. What's the betting that this fuels a spending spree from 15 June? That sounds plausible to me, and share prices are reflecting the increased likelihood of that happening.

Property REITS - going bananas at the moment, I was a little early to this trade, buying Hammerson (LON:HMSO)

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