Small Cap Value Report (Weds 2 Dec 2020) - BLV, LGRS, SAL, ANG, D4T4, EMR, TSCO

2nd Dec '20 by Paul Scott

127 comments 12220 reads

Good morning! It's Paul here with the SCVR for Wednesday.

Timing - I've got most of the day free today, so should be able to focus on this. As I mentioned in the comments yesterday, I'm a freelance writer here, and I publish what I can, when I can. It's not a full time job. Please bear that in mind, to keep expectations grounded. Maybe we should have made that clearer before, to prevent unrealistic expectations, if so, please accept my apologies. Today's report is now finished.

Agenda - these updates have caught my eye today;

Belvoir (LON:BLV) - share price up on a trading update

Loungers (LON:LGRS) (I hold, small position) - shares up on interim results

Angling Direct (LON:ANG) - shares up on a trading update

Spaceandpeople (LON:SAL) - huge % move up on this nanocap on an interesting announcement (I hold - a tiny position)

D4t4 Solutions (LON:D4T4) (I hold) - more contract extensions, building confidence for H2 outturn

Empresaria (LON:EMR) - solid trading update, low PER

Tesco (LON:TSCO) - readers are more cynical than me about it returning business rates relief monies to the taxpayer!

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Harry Hindsight

2nd Dec '20

Apparently a side effect is 'you can predict moving averages' something to do with some lobe or stuff.

Paul Scott

Hi Kaboom,

It seems that the decision was made back in 2018 by Philip Hammond [source] to reinstate crown preference. So looks like it pre-dates covid & Govt support schemes, although your theory does sound otherwise persuasive!

Regards, Paul.

Simon Rowan

My mum was not keen on getting us vaccinated back in the fifties. So we were probably pretty lucky thanks partly to the majority that were. Our kids had all the usual vaccines. Not so keen on the flu vaccine, partly because I'm pretty sure I react badly too it, and partly because it does not protect you from all strains of virus. I am a great believer in building up my own immunity through sensible dieting and sleep and not over stressing. However:

The big issue will of course be travel. A proof of vaccination against COVID will almost certainly be a condition to travel anywhere abroad by any means of transport. Have Governments even begun to think about how they are going to certificate or validate peoples vaccinations?

Mercia16

I’d agree with that if the vaccine was 100% effective. From memory the Oxford vaccine was about 60% effective so there’s a 40% chance it will be of no use to you. why should that give you VIP treatment?

MiserableJacktPotato

If you’ve been vaccinated why do you care if others choose not to.

I for one will be waiting for the Oxford vaccine or similar “old tech” vaccine - you can keep your experimental RNA vaccine.
Not everyone needs to have the vaccine to achieve immunity for everyone, the so called herd immunity.

That’s not what 60% effective means though is it? It was 100% effective at keeping patients out of hospital

Momoko Miyamoto

I bought Angling Direct (LON:ANG) during lockdown 1.0 but then sold for quick profit when I saw the numbers on stockopedia shows it makes next to no profit with non existent margins. Is it trying to become the Amazon of fishing? Perhaps it should offer a cloud based phishing service.

Thornabian

60% effective doesnt mean it has 40% chance it is no use...........try reading the actual studies and how they determine it before giving opinions like that.

why did Sourcebio International (LON:SBI) IPO in November 2020 if they're making stacks of cash from selling COVID tests?

Tortoise investor

Thanks for the write-up on Belvoir (LON:BLV) Paul. The free research note from FinnCap today puts Belvoir (LON:BLV) on 15.2p EPS for 12/2020 and 15.6p for 12/2021. I am assuming the '21 figure may be an underestimate given a) likelihood of government supporting property market post March to support the economy (I wouldn't be surprised if the stamp duty holiday gets extended) and b) given Belvoir (LON:BLV) is quite acquisitive I wouldn't be surprised to see further earnings-enhancing acquisitions over the next year.

Those who bought in on £BLV when there was peak gloom about lettings agents due to the ban on most letting agent fees have had a decent return here, especially when including the generous dividends.

Boon

Spaceandpeople (LON:SAL) must definitely be running low on cash atm.

Will need an equity raise I think in the new year, to reflate working capital.

GloucesterBob

Paul, great to see Paddy again, bout time we had a picture of the other pooch I believe you have, he will be getting jealous.

When our dog had an operation we got something similar to this that means they cannot get to the wound and gets to ditch the cone of shame.

https://www.direct-vet.co.uk/dogs/2309-medical-pet-shirt-protective-vest-for-dogs.html

PLS1nve5t

If it gets approval, that's good enough for me,

Dojosan

3rd Dec '20

£SBI TBH I am not sure FREng. I would imagine there would be an overhang if the II are seeking to sell. I am not sure if they want to (but I am not in a position to know). It appears that Lombard Odier took up 20%+ of the company during the IPO .

Did a bit more digging around, what I do know is that for all 3 other biotech companies that I am aware of that Harwood Capital has been involved in Renalytix Ai (LON:RENX), Sourcebio International (LON:SBI) and Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF), coincidentally, Lombard Odier is in there too. So most probably Christopher Mills shining the torch - I guess and Odier following. Andy Brough has mentioned for a few of his biotech investments has followed Mr Mills into certain companies. Not sure about Continental Investment Partners tho (they do not hold a holding > 5% in Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF) or Renalytix Ai (LON:RENX)) .

Mr Mills, when being interviewed by Paul Hill of Vox in reference to Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF), said that he definitely would not be selling his holdings at current prices (that's for Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF)). Similarly, for Sourcebio International (LON:SBI), there is no reason for Mr Mills to head for the exit so quick. The debt injected has been repaid back to the PE firm ( I guess it's Harwood Capital) and if he holds the same expectations for Sourcebio International (LON:SBI) as he holds for Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF) and there is no reason why he should not be having similar expectations, then he would not be heading out the door so early because it seems the Sourcebio International (LON:SBI) 's story has only just begun. Therefore IMO, unlikely for overhang...until II start decide to sell off ....when? If only I knew in advance!

mark1308

Agreed and i am sure certain things such as flights will want you to show your Vac cert or whatever and quite right too !

Yes but if no one has the vaccine ( thinking like you do !) we certainly will NOT get herd immunity

Bless ! Hope he makes it .

4351anf

I'm pretty sure you won't get to choose which vaccine you get

brianbathgate

Go Paddy! You're looking good

Bullsnbears

All this for a virus that until 2 weeks ago had directly killed 339 under 60 year olds since Feb of this year. Where the average age of those dying is 82 years 4 months - 2 years above life expectancy.

COVID deaths in London are currently running at 9 per day despite the mass protests and gatherings in summer and Eat Out to Help Out, leading many epidemiologists to believe that herd immunity had already been achieved early summer.

Until the vaccine has been demonstrably proven to be safe and effective I can understand entirely why people may be reluctant to get the jab and disagree that those people who may want more understanding of the vaccine's side effects before letting their children take the jab should be penalised.

Small Cap Value Report (Weds 2 Dec 2020) - BLV, LGRS, SAL, ANG, D4T4, EMR, TSCO

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Paul Scott

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