Good morning, it's Paul & Roland here with the SCVR for Wednesday.
Timing - as I have visitors, we'll need to be finished here by late morning.
Update at 12:23 - visitors have gone home now, so I have an unexpectedly free afternoon! Hence I'll keep plugging away here until mid-afternoon.
Update at 17:12 - today's report is now finished.
Agenda -
Paul's section:
Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) (I hold) - deeply discounted placing will not please private shareholders.
N Brown (LON:BWNG) - (I hold) - Alliance family increasing stake again - Joshua Alliance RNSs an increase in his stake from 4.61% to 6.21%. I reckon there's a chance of a bid for the company by its controlling shareholders. No section below, this is just a quick note.
Electra Private Equity (LON:ELTA) (I hold) - a quick note to point out a new research note here has been published (yesterday) by Edison. As commissioned research, obviously this will be effectively the company itself talking to us. It's essential reading for all holders of this stock. It demonstrates that there's still strong upside potential once TGIs and Hotter Shoes are separately listed shares, with ELTA shareholders morphing into holders of those two stocks, through an in specie distribution, then what's left of ELTA turning into Hotter Shoes. My only criticism of this research note, is that it doesn't pull the valuation together, to arrive at a conclusion, it just leaves the individual valuations of TGI & Hotter dangling. Still, it's easy enough to work out sum-of-the-parts ourselves. As mentioned before, I'm coming out at 800p+ hence still upside here I reckon, and both TGI & Hotter Shoes are shares that I actually want to hold, as both are good growth companies. Hence ELTA remains, in my view, an attractively cheap back door into forthcoming TGI & Hotter Shoes floats. No section below.
Sdi (LON:SDI) - another positive trading update for FY 04/21. Guidance for FY 04/22 left the same, but upside potential on forecasts looks likely. Valuation seems about right to me.
Gym (LON:GYM) - a surprisingly strong trading update, which has read-across for other sectors such as hospitality, and travel, in my view. This is a smashing business, and expansion has resumed. My only quibble is the high valuation, which seems to already factor in re-opening recovery. Personally I'm not interested in chasing this any higher.
De La Rue (LON:DLAR) - a very impressive turnaround, and FY 03/2021 results out today are strong (a little above most recent guidance). However, the pension scheme planned cash outflows are gigantic, and put me off.
Roland's section:
Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) - This specialist foam manufacturer has upgraded revenue guidance but left profit expectations unchanged. There’s also encouraging news on a new product - but are the shares up with events?
Cohort (LON:CHRT) - a profit warning from this AIM-listed defence group. However, Cohort’s long-term track record is good and lumpy profits are not unknown. This stock remains on my watch list.
Paul's Section
Revolution Bars (LON:RBG)
(I hold)
33p (pre market open - expect a big drop today) - mkt cap £41m
Bombshell news last night on another deeply discounted fundraising by Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) (I hold). I'll be starting today with some comments on this, but have already made my views known that I see this as very damaging to the interests of small shareholders (I got wind of this deal late last week, and have been bracing myself for the flak ever since).
To be fair, they wanted to do a larger Open Offer (like last time), but apparently were prohibited from doing so due to some ridiculous rule that limits open offers to 8m euros per year. Surely a strong candidate to go on the bonfire of unnecessary & indeed harmful regulations? Hence only a £1m Open Offer this time, because £6m was done last time (summer 2020).
Share count is increasing from 125m to 230m - that's awful dilution - RBG had 50m shares in issue before covid, and look at things now, with 230m. All the extra have been issued at 20p.
On the upside, I think the company is probably worth c.30p post re-opening (that would be a market cap of £69m which looks about right). Hence 50% upside from the placing price. But of course that's not much consolation to existing holders, since the share price was 33p yesterday, hence their upside has basically disappeared.
The bottom line is that it's the institutions & HNWs who dictate placing prices, and RBG only has a few institutions on the shareholder register. I would have thought , being on the cusp of full re-opening, and with strong trading just reported, there would be great appetite for a fundraise, but apparently not. 20p was the level which generated enough demand, it seems. As I mentioned yesterday, placings now are a lot tougher, and we need to be very careful investing in anything that needs to raise cash.
Sorry I didn't see this coming, I thought RBG would be able to get through to re-opening without another fundraise, but management has decided that they need to do what's best for the business, and to give them the firepower to do deals in a once-in-a-decade market for new sites, and of course bonanza trading imminently when restrictions lift. Plus they want to refurb a load of sites quickly, for peak trading.
Anyone buying in the market in recent days, paying 34p+ was being ripped off, and buying in a false market. The system really must be changed, it's absolutely outrageous that the share can keep trading at a false price, when a deeply discounted fundraising is underway. People who had been made insiders, knew not to buy in the market (and are not allowed to), giving an unfair advantage. Whereas most people who are not insiders, might decide to buy at say 35p in the market, completely unaware that a 20p placing is underway.
Urgent action is needed, to adopt the Australian system of suspending all shares whenever a placing is underway. We need to lobby for this, so let's get some letters in to our MPs, and to the financial authorities, otherwise nothing will ever change.
I'm really surprised that Peel Hunt & Finncap combined couldn't generate more buyers at a higher price for this placing. After all, we've seen a lot of interest, and high prices for other floats & fundraisings in the hospitality sector, e.g. Various Eateries (LON:VARE) , Restaurant (LON:RTN) placing at 100p, various pubcos like Marston's (LON:MARS) , Nightcap (LON:NGHT) , etc. So I'm flummoxed as to why investors could only be tempted into backing RBG at a deep discount. A city friend tells me that there's "deal fatigue" now, and not as much spare cash sloshing around as there was previously.
Contrast this heavily dilutive, discounted fundraise with the admittedly much smaller fundraise from Sosandar (LON:SOS) which was done at market price, with no discount, and only modest dilution. That was done by N+1 Singer, and achieved an excellent result.
EDIT at 08:06 - price has opened down 35% to 21.0p/22.0p - horrendous for existing holders. Although buying at around the 20p placing price would set up a good trade for the re-opening which is imminent, in my opinion. Hence not a time to panic.
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Sdi (LON:SDI)
176p (down 2%, at 08:37) - mkt cap £174m
SDI Group plc, the AIM quoted Group focused on the design and manufacture of scientific and technology products for use in digital imaging and sensing and control applications, is pleased to provide an update on trading for the year ended 30 April 2021.
Another strong update from this impressive little group of companies -
Following the Company's February Trading Update, March and April sales and order intake have been robust across all of our businesses, evidencing a further and welcome return towards normality in our served markets.
Subject to any audit adjustments, we now expect to report Revenue of approximately £35.3m and Adjusted* Profit Before Tax of approximately £7.4m, both of which are higher than those provided in our 10 February 2021 Trading Update.
* before amortisation of acquired intangible assets, reorganisation costs, acquisition costs and share-based payments
Guidance for the new financial year - see below, admirable in its clarity, if only all companies would report like this, it makes life so much easier for investors/commentators -
We have not changed our expectations for our current financial year ending 30 April 2022 compared with the update provided on 10 February 2021 (Sales > £42.0m, Adjusted PBT > £8.7m).
Valuation - many thanks to Finncap for a 1-page update note this morning, very helpful.
It pencils in 6.1p for FY 04/2021, and 7.1p for FY 04/2022, with a hint that there could be upside on the 7.1p forecast for this year.
PERs come out at 28.9 and 24.8 respectively - not exactly a bargain, but if it beats FY 04/22 by 1p for example, then 8.1p turns into a PER of 21.7 - which looks about right to me.
My opinion - an excellent company, that appears to be adept at making decent acquisitions.
Valuation looks fair to me.
Well done to holders. Top-slicing can sometimes be a good idea, as it banks some of the profit, and gives a cash buffer to deploy if the price subsequently sells off, as things can do over the summer. That’s obviously a personal decision for each individual shareholder. Running winners is also a good strategy, so who knows what the future holds?!
The only issue I can think of, is that previous updates mentioned large, one-off orders. So that could be flattering results perhaps? There again, winning large orders is inherently good, and may lead to follow-on orders possibly?
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StockRank is good - and it’s classified by the Stockopedia algorithms as: Speculative - Small Cap - High Flyer
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Gym (LON:GYM)
280p (up c.8% at 12:41) - mkt cap £464m
The Gym Group plc ("the Company"), the no-contract, nationwide operator of 187 low-cost gyms, announces a trading update following the re-opening of its gyms after the recent nationwide lockdown.
Outperforming expectations since re-opening
I’m keen to cover re-opening trading updates here, to get a feel for how customers are behaving, as that has wider read-across for many other shares.
12 April - gyms in England re-opened
26 April - Scotland followed suit
3 May - Wales next
17 May - group exercise permitted to restart
Social distancing restrictions still in place.
Key highlights - this is impressive, and seems a lot better than I would have guessed -
Trading since re-opening has outperformed the Company's expectations, reflecting strong demand for the return to gyms; total membership has increased from 547,000 at the end of February 2021 to 729,000 by 24 May 2021 versus 794,000 in December 2019.
All members are now paying, with the free freeze option having been removed upon re-opening.
- Customer satisfaction scores are high
- Average weekly visits per customer is also high, at 1.5 vs 1.1 comparative in 2019 (I wonder how long this honeymoon period will last?)
- Summer months are seasonally quiet, expecting to see that pattern return
- 4 new sites opened recently, all trading “extremely well”
- Opportunities to acquire new sites on affordable rents
- New joiner rates “at record levels”
Net debt - admirable clarity here on stretched creditors -
Net debt at the end of April was £63.1 million, with outstanding deferred rent and VAT of a further £9.4 million, versus a total bank facility of £100.0 million.
At current levels of membership, in May the Company expects to be cash-flow positive pre-expansionary capex and therefore expects to generate cash flow towards its new site rollout…
...Now that all gyms are open and trading, we have commenced discussions with our lending banks to increase our financial flexibility as we look to accelerate our new site opening programme.
My opinion - people of all ages go to gyms, but it’s probably fair to say that the bulk of the customers are 18-50. Therefore I see this bullish update today as strong evidence that younger/fitter/healthier people seem ready to get back to normal. Maybe older people are too, who have been vaccinated?
The market cap is nearly £500m though - for a company that had pre-pandemic (FY 12/2019) revenues of £153m, and only made adj post tax earnings of £10.57m (per results RNS), and adj EPS of 7.7p in 2019.
Also bear in mind dilution - it issued fresh equity in April 2020: 27.4m new shares issued at 150p, and still has a lot of debt on top of that.
Overall, this update is clearly very good, but I do question whether the price might be getting ahead of reality? It’s a roll-out, so some investors might be happy to over-pay, given that new sites should hit the ground running in terms of profitability and what the members do!
Overall, I think the price already reflects re-opening & recovery in earnings. Therefore, I struggle to see much upside. It could easily run to an over-valuation though, so who knows what the share price will do? The chart certainly looks well set up for continuing strong momentum, so maybe it's a good shares for momentum traders? Whereas I tend to view shares through a value/GARP (growth at reasonable price) prism, hence generally value things lower than some other investor/traders might do. It takes all sorts to make a market! Please remember we're not short term traders here at the SCVR, so we have no idea what Mr Market will do in the short term. We're looking at the fundamentals, and the longer-term. Lots of shares run to excessive valuations in a bull market.
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De La Rue (LON:DLAR)
194p (down c.3% at 15:25) - mkt cap £380m
De La Rue plc (LSE: DLAR) ("De La Rue", the "Group" or the "Company") announces its full year results for the year ended 27 March 2021 (the "period", "FY" or "full year"). The comparative period was the twelve months ended 28 March 2020.
I’ve reported on De La Rue (LON:DLAR) several times this year, so for background reading here are my notes from 29 Jan 2021 (ahead of expectations trading update, and a slightly ahead of expectations update here on 11 April 2021. Those reports also cover the elephant in the room - £15m p.a. cash outflows into the pension scheme deficit (growing to £24.5m pa).
It’s a very impressive turnaround, which has been reflected in a big recovery in share price. Taking into account the pension deficit, I thought the price looked about right.
Moving on to today’s results, it looks in line with expectations, with adjusted operating profit of £38.1m (up an impressive 60.8% on last year) - versus most recent guidance of c.£37m, so actually that’s a beat of about 3%, pretty good so far.
This result is all the more impressive because revenues were down 10.2% to £388.1m. A combination of higher gross margin, and deep cost-cutting in overheads, drove the increase in profitability.
A further £7m of cost savings are in the pipeline for FY 03/2022.
Adj EPS is up 32.4% to 14.7p (a PER of 13.2 - cheap due to the big pension deficit cash outflows of £15m pa, remember)
Net debt down 49% to £52.3m, again that’s in the right ballpark compared with guidance of c.£53m.
Outlook - April & May 2021 said to be in line with management expectations.
The rest of the outlook section is a bit too vague for me -
We have a target of returning the Company to a strong financial position and an operating platform which will deliver sustainable growth at high operating margins and strong cash generation in the medium term. Following an initial period of cash outflow to fund the Turnaround Plan, we continue to aim for the Group to be generating cash flow capable of supporting sustainable cash dividends to shareholders by the end of the Turnaround Plan in FY 2022/23.
Pension Deficit - the accounting entries are best ignored, because they’re total nonsense & dramatically understate the real world deficit and huge recovery payments agreed.
All that matters is the cash outflows, read this and let it sink in -
On 31 May 2020, the Trustee and the Company agreed the terms for a schedule of contributions and a recovery plan, setting out a programme for clearing the UK Pension Scheme deficit (the "Recovery Plan"). The last actuarial valuation of the UK Pension Scheme was at 31 December 2019, which was based on intentionally prudent assumptions, revealed a funding shortfall (technical provisions minus the value of the assets) of £142.6m. The Recovery Plan makes an allowance for post-valuation market conditions up to 30 April 2020 (at which point there is an estimated funding shortfall of £190m), including the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets to that date.
The £190m deficit is addressed by payments of £15m per annum (payable quarterly in arrears) under the Recovery Plan payable from 1 April 2020 until 31 March 2023 and then payments of £24.5m per annum (payable quarterly in arrears) from 1 April 2023 until 31 March 2029 (whereas under the recovery plan agreed with the trustee in 2016 ("2015 Recovery Plan"), the payments would have been £22.2 million between 1 April 2020 and 31 March 2021, £23.1 million between 1 April 2021 and 31 March 2022 and £23 million per annum thereafter until 31 March 2028). Additional contingent contributions in exceptional circumstances will become payable by way of an acceleration of the contributions due in later years where: (i) the leverage ratio (consolidated net debt: EBITDA) is equal to or greater than 2.5x in either FY 2021/2 or FY2022/23, up to a maximum of £4m in each financial year and £8m in total and/or (ii) the Company or any its subsidiaries take any action which will cause material detriment (defined in section 38 Pensions Act 2004) to the UK Pension Scheme, of £23.3m (£7.2m in FY 2020/21, £8.1m in FY 2021/22 and £8m in FY 2022/23) over the period up to 31 March 2023.
These are massive planned cash outflows. It’s possible that something might change in future, which could trigger those payments to fall. Since the actuarial valuation is based on April 2020 figures, when equity markets were below current levels, then the next valuation might show a lower deficit. This is so highly material, that properly researching the pension scheme is just as important as analysing the company's prospects.
For me, there’s not really much point in doing more research on the company’s prospects & turnaround, given the sheer scale of the pension scheme cash outflows planned.
Balance sheet - looks OK. Although if we were to replace the absurd £20.5m accounting deficit shown on the balance sheet with what it actually is, £190m actuarial deficit, then NAV would become negative.
My opinion - I recognise this is a very impressive turnaround. However, for me, the cash outflows into the pension scheme are so enormous, that it’s difficult to see much upside in the equity.
DLAR shares might become more appealing if something happened which greatly reduced the cash outflows into the pension scheme. Or, if profitability rose greatly, thus diluting the impact of the pension scheme.
Dilution - pre covid it had about 112m shares in issue. It's now 195.1m, so you need to take that into account when looking at the chart, and valuing this share.
As things stand now though, it doesn’t stack up as an investment for me. Good luck to holders.
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Roland’s section
Zotefoams (LON:ZTF)
405p (pre-open) - market cap £196m
Specialist foam producer Zotefoams has issued a trading update this morning, reporting record monthly revenues and guiding for revenue to be “significantly ahead of market expectations for the full year”. Profit expectations remain unchanged, due to planned capex and cost inflation, but this still looks like a strong update to me.
Zotefoams has been a popular small cap in recent years, but the share price chart suggests growth hasn’t always lived up to expectations:
Does today’s news signal new momentum? Let’s take a look.
Trading
Due to the impact of the pandemic, I feel that comparing performance for the first four months of 2021 with the equivalent period in 2020 is not always very meaningful. So I’ve got into the habit of looking back at 2019 as well.
Happily, Zotefoams’ management has done this work for us today, presenting comparative figures for the last two years.
Revenue for the first four months of 2021 is said to be 60% ahead of the same period in 2020 and c.14% ahead of 2019. Zotefoams generated record monthly revenues in March and April.
Two of the company’s three divisions are reporting strong growth:
High-Performance Products (36% of revenue in 2020): Sales are up by 133% vs 2020 (up 61% vs 2019)
Strong demand for footwear has offset weaker aviation demand.
Polyolefin Foams (62% of revenue in 2020): Sales are up by 32% vs 2020, but down 7% vs 2019.
A good recovery in most markets except aviation. Lower sales in January due to Brexit uncertainty are blamed for the fall vs 2019.
MuCell Extrusion (c.2% of revenue in 2020):Sales up 36% vs 2020 and up 76% vs 2019.
A strong start with good momentum on licence fees, but this division appears to be a startup, making minimal contribution to revenue.
MuCell’s focus is now on a new product, ReZorce packaging. This appears to be a new material for beverage cartons - the photos on Zotefoams’ website look like the ‘Tetra Pak’ type cartons used for products such as fruit juice and UHT milk. However, Zotefoams says that ReZorce solves the recycling problems associated with these laminated products.
The company says that ReZorce could be a circular economy product, whereby used packaging is fully recycled and used to make new packaging. I know this goal is being targeted by a number of larger packaging companies at the moment.
According to today’s update, independent analysis has demonstrated ReZorce’s recyclability and low-carbon footprint. MuCell has now identified commercial partners and is carrying out “market positioning and engagement with potential customers”. A pilot production line is being built.
I’ve not looked into this in any detail, but the best-case scenario appears to be that ReZorce could replace Tetra Pak packaging in some markets. I’d guess that might be a significant growth opportunity, albeit at a very early stage. I’m not sure what other competitors might exist, either.
Outlook
Management are confident in the outlook for the year, despite continuing currency headwinds and Covid-19 impacts. The order book was said to be strong at the end of April, although comparatives for the remainder of the year are tougher.
While it is still early in the year and we are mindful of the volatile macroeconomic environment, we anticipate Group revenue to be significantly ahead of market expectations for the full year, which will offset the short-term inflationary impacts on margins, the weaker US dollar and our planned increase in product and commercial development costs. Consequently, we are comfortable with current market expectations for growth in profit and reduction in leverage for the year and remain confident about the long-term prospects of the business."
My view
Today’s update looks promising to me. However, I think it’s worth taking a quick look back at the 2019/20 figures for a sanity check.
Zotefoams’ 2020 figures were refreshingly free of adjustments and showed only one measure of earnings, which came in at 14.6p per share (diluted).
If this is the correct EPS measure to use, then growth expectations this year (as referred to in today’s outlook) appear to be fairly minimal:
Based on today’s upgrade to revenue expectations, it looks like we can expect Zotefoams’ profit margin to fall this year. Profit margins have been fairly consistent in recent years, but returns on capital have fallen since 2019:
I’d have to do more research to understand the moving parts here, but I assume that the falling ROCE is due to growth capex that has yet to deliver returns. This may pay off over time.
However, as Jack commented in January, cash generation has been consistently poor. Leverage also remains quite high. Net debt was 2.1x EBITDA at the 2020 year end.
Summary: Zotefoams is not a company I’ve followed in detail, but it does seem to be an interesting business with growth potential.
However, earnings are expected to be broadly flat this year and leverage is still relatively high, in my view.
After today’s gains, the stock is trading on 29 times 2021 forecast earnings. That seems high enough to me. Stockopedia’s algorithms are also struggling to find much value:
Zotefoams’ strong rating appears to rely on a much stronger growth performance in 2022. At this stage, it’s not clear to me how likely this is.
On balance, I’d say the share price is up with events at current levels.
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Cohort (LON:CHRT)
592p (-11.6%) - market cap £243m
This AIM-listed group of six defence companies has issued a subtle profit warning and is one of today’s biggest fallers. I’ve started to follow this business over the last year and have had a favourable impression of it so far.
I don’t own Cohort shares, but they are on my watch list, so I’m keen to understand what’s upset investors today.
Today’s trading update covered the financial year ended 30 April and includes an outlook statement for the current year. It’s this part which has disappointed the market, I think.
- FY21 update: performance in line with expectations for the year
- FY22 outlook: Order delays mean that the revenue mix will change. Although revenue expectations are unchanged, profit growth is now expected to be lower than previously thought.
Some businesses are prone to lumpy order flow. In my experience this can sometimes present buying opportunities for long-term holders. I think this might be the case here.
FY21 trading
Let’s skim over the FY21 numbers. Trading is said to be in line with expectations. I’ve not been able to find a recent broker forecast for this year, so I’ve extrapolated the numbers below from Cohort’s FY20 results and the consensus forecasts shown in Stockopedia:
- FY21 revenue +8% to £141m
- FY21 Adjusted earnings -10% to 33.5p per share
The supporting year-end metrics provided in today’s update look more positive:
- Year-end net cash of £2m (FY20 net debt £4.7m)
- Record order intake of £210m (FY20 £124.4m)
- Closing order book of £240m (FY20 £183.3m)
- The closing order book underpins 60% of FY22 revenue forecasts, in line with historical performance.
FY22 outlook
Despite the increased closing order book, some expected orders with Cohort’s EID subsidiary have been delayed and are now expected to be secured in “2022 and 2023”.
EID is a Portuguese company that makes communications systems. Cohort acquired a controlling stake in 2016.
These delays are expected to result in lower margins and reduced profit growth during the year to 30 April 2022:
While the overall performance of the Group's other businesses means the Group's revenue expectations are unchanged, leading to good revenue growth, the mix of revenues is expected to see a reduction in the Group's overall margin and accordingly a lower rate of profit growth.
Management have not provided any numerical guidance with today’s update, so we’re left guessing about the potential impact of this shortfall.
Assuming that Cohort’s earnings will be 10% lower than expected this year, this leaves the stock trading on around 20 times earnings, with a forecast dividend yield of c.1.8%.
EID problems
I’ve had a look back at Cohort’s results for 2019 and 2020. Both sets of results suggest that EID has been underperforming for a while:
- 2019: “weaker performance at EID” caused by “lower naval activity and slippage of deliveries on a major contract in its Tactical division”.
- 2020: “EID had a stronger year” but COVID-19 caused “delays to orders and deliveries, particularly at EID and SEA”
To put these comments in context, EID generated 17% of group operating profit in 2020, roughly one-sixth of the total. So it’s a material business to Cohort.
Cohort’s business model is built around giving its operating subsidiaries a high degree of autonomy, supported by financial infrastructure and strategic guidance.
I’d imagine Cohort’s board is taking an active interest in the problems at EID, but this isn’t a fully-owned subsidiary - Cohort only owns a majority stake. So the group’s ability to make changes may be limited.
Today’s guidance that the delayed orders “are now expected to be secured in 2022 and 2023” seems fairly broad. My impression is that the cause of these delays may not be resolved that quickly.
My view
As I mentioned, I’ve had a favourable impression of Cohort until today. Has that changed? Not necessarily.
Today’s news is disappointing and Cohort’s acquisitive growth strategy will always carry some risks. But I think the company’s track record to date is good and supports confidence in the firm’s management:
Looking further back, the 10-year stats (available here on Stockopedia) tells us that revenue has doubled since 2011, while net income has risen by 250%.
Cash flow has always been strong too, albeit a little lumpy.
Cohort’s dividend has risen every year since its flotation in 2006:
The balance sheet looks consistently strong and there has been no dilution. I think the firm’s performance has created genuine value for shareholders:
This successful performance may partly be explained by the concentrated shareholder structure with insider ownership.
Fund manager Liontrust is the biggest holder, with over 30%. Cohort’s founder Stanley Carter owns 22% of the stock and remains on the board as a non-executive director:
I try not to invest in companies immediately after a profit warning, because the research shows that the situation often gets worse before it improves.
However, I’m still interested in Cohort and will be watching the firm’s progress closely. Although I think the share price is up with events, I’m impressed by this group’s steady progress over many years.
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