The Week Ahead (5-9 May): interest rate cuts and trade talks?

After a volatile start to April courtesy of tariff Liberation Day, most major indices ended the month broadly flat – perhaps a good argument in favour of buy-and-hold investing.

Despite relative calm in the markets this was a busy week for UK company news, with 130 UK company updates summarised at the top of our daily reports!

Across a broad range of companies reporting, we noted mixed results from the big UK banks and encouraging progress for pharma giant GSK (LON:GSK). An AGM vote at Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) also revealed strong shareholder support for maintaining the FTSE 100 miner's London listing. 

Housebuilders Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.)  and Persimmon (LON:PSN) both left full-year expectations unchanged. Meanwhile, comments from Lloyds Banking (LON:LLOY) suggested it was a strong quarter for mortgage lending, with buyers racing to complete before Stamp Duty returned to pre-2022 levels on 1 April.

For smaller and mid-sized UK firms, tariff uncertainty was a key theme, contributing to a number of profit warnings and uncertain outlook statements. 

This uncertainty now also seems to be affecting companies in the US. Mcdonald's (NYQ:MCD) reported a 3.6% drop in like-for-like sales for the first quarter – apparently the biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic. The fast-food group’s CEO said its customers were “grappling with uncertainty”.

However, Meta Platforms (NSQ:META) and Microsoft (NSQ:MSFT) reported quarterly earnings ahead of expectations this week, perhaps suggesting that some areas of the US economy remain healthier – and that the tech boom may not be over yet.

Next week’s news could provide more insight into the actual and expected impact of tariffs on major US firms, with a broad range of businesses due to report. Names such as Ford Motor Co (NYQ:F), Walt Disney Co (NYQ:DIS)  and Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (NYQ:BUD) may provide further insight into the health and sentiment of US consumers.

Several major US oil and gas companies are also reporting, providing further context to this week’s mixed updates from UK–listed BP (LON:BP.) and Shell (LON:SHEL).

After another long weekend here in the UK, next week's newsflow from the London market looks likely to be a little quieter. However, there should be some interesting small and mid-cap names to discuss in the daily report.

Economic news could also prove interesting. Press reports suggest that China is considering whether to begin trade talks with the US, providing a possible boost to investor sentiment. 

Meanwhile, interest rate decisions are due from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England next week. Current expectations suggest that the Bank of England could cut the Bank Rate by 0.25% to 4.25% on Thursday, while the Fed is expected to leave its main policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% on Wednesday. 

Economic Calendar

Companies Reporting