Tue 15 May 2018 - CNKS, SPRP, G4M, ZYT, CAKE, ACRL, LOOK | Paul Scott

14th May '18 by Paul Scott

59 comments 23993 reads

Good afternoon/evening/morning, it's Paul here.

What a beautiful surge in temperature this week, which I have enjoyed very much, and hope you have too!

Hopefully I shall be able to report back to you shortly on a private matter, which has caused me immense anxiety. It concerns a guarantee I gave (foolishly) to a friend's pubs. I never imagined that the PG would actually kick in. It has. Hopefully it should get sorted out at some point.

Here in Bournemouth there was a terrible accident, some time ago, when a Red Arrows pilot tragically lost his life, in a display crash. Local children were invited to design a memorial. A local artist then took it further.

I spent 10 minutes today, just taking some time to ponder what a beautiful memorial it was to the Red Arrows pilot, called Jon Egging. Here it is - isn't this magnificient?

You can't see it in this picture, but there are coloured glass bubbles in the exhaust trails of each plane.

It's incredibly moving, when you see the memorial, with the light shining brightly through the coloured glass bubbles in the exhaust trails, on a vividly sunny day such as today.

There was another plaque nearby, which commemorated a Spitfire pilot, who also lost his life, when his plane crashed in the vicinity during the Battle of Britain.

Anyway, I think we have a busy day on the horizon - it's results from Gear4Music (in which I have a long position) - a costly growth stock, which institutions seem to want to buy.

Also, I think results from Zytronic (LON:ZYT) are out in the morning.

I'll be taking my time to amble through things. Graham has got a heavy cold, so you'll have to put up with me for the rest of the week! I'll do my best, we'll see what happens lol.

Book recommendation

I start lots of books, but rarely finish them. This is why I rarely trouble you with book recommendations.

Occasionally, maybe once per year, I'm gripped - and enjoy a book so much, that I don't want to put it down.

For me, such a book, the book of 2018, has been "Return To Go", written by Jim Slater, in 1977 - this…

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Andrew niven

15th May '18

Hi paul
Andrew here normally in barbados commenting on this and that re elegant hotels but today was also here in bournemouth !!! Looking forward to one day meeting you

Paul Scott

Oh you weren't that pissed welsh bloke in 'spoons, or the brummy chap in the Harvester, were you?
(I'm not joking, I chat to anyone lol!) in which case helloooo!!

PP.

xcity

I remember the '74 crash well. Prices just kept on going down. Top notch companies were unbelievably cheap - but were then a lot cheaper the next day. Institutions of course couldn't sell the market, just buy. Almost too mesmerising to trade. But when the bottom came, the bounce was huge.

Sorry to hear of your PG. I'm afraid I've heard of them being called in all too often.

threeputt

'Between a Rock and a Hard Place' by Aron Ralston has to be the most inspiring book I have read, he's the guy who had to cut his own arm off when he got stuck in the canyon

gus 1065

Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP) full final year results out giving a bit more clarity on impact of BRK settlement and current financial position. Also announcing change of company name to Fireangel Safety Technology Group - even more of a mouthful than before.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/sprue-aegis-plc--sprp-/rns/final-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2017/201805150700060423O/

Now that the unholy knot with BRK has been untied, I’m edging towards thinking this might be an interesting Contrarian play. The company has historically had strong quality metrics, notwithstanding warranty issues over dud batteries in some of their alarms, and now they have more control over their supply chain things may start to improve. Management will have to go some to restore investor confidence, but at this share price level there may be upside as the recent uncertainty unwinds.

Gus.

Lol
Funny thing is we walked past the harvester (old neptune bar) yesterday on marathan walk from southbourne to bournemouth .
Had lunch at west beach by the pier, bloody good food but pricey.
Love your advise paul , maybe mello next year if im in uk

Regards

Andrew

runthejoules

Morning! Interested in hearing views on Symphony Environmental Technologies (LON:SYM), revenues up 17% on this period last year, good but maybe not as good as investors might have wanted given the SP doubling in the last month or so.

TamzinPiworld

All the Electric Vehicle presentations now posted, with the final one today with Paul McNamara, Technical Director at Williams Advanced Engineering, who draws on his experience, to identify the opportunities for EVs going forward. His is presentations 6. Challenges of vehicle electrification.

Here's the link to the page with all the EV presentations:
http://www.piworld.co.uk/categ...

iwright7

Paul,

Thanks for the book recommendation Return to Go, by Jim Slater. I have just Googled it and brought a signed 1st Edition from Oxfam Online for £14. Am looking forward to reading it.

I too was inspired by Jim Slater's approach and his Company Refs database - An ahead of its time prequel to Stockopedia. Its remarkable that he figured out his Zulu selection procedure before the days of back testing and complex statistical analysis. Ian

martin576

Morning Paul. If you have time you may want to look at Xpediator (LON:XPD) Xpediator (£71m mcap) who presented at Mello
They are a freight management company who have been doing very well in Eastern Europe. Company is run by the founder who still owns a large stake. There were some good results this morning. Revenue up 60%, PBT and EPS nearly doubled and they are introducing their first dividend.

GrahamF

Hi Paul. I know you have been partial to some Patisserie Holdings (LON:CAKE) in the past. Results today are good and inline. The niche they fill seems to be that of an affordable luxury. While there’s more to them than the the shops/cafes, it does look as though their expansion should be helped by the availability of new premises at knock down rents due to the carnage in other sectors of retail. Be interested to get your take on cake!

Wol

Good morning Paul
The Red Arrows sculpture looks beautiful. I will be in Bournemouth on Saturday evening, taking my partner out to a circus / acrobatics performance for a birthday treat (https://youtu.be/9z-xuEwvO7c).
If you have time I’d be interested in your thoughts on the Animalcare (LON:ANCR) results. I sold out soon after the reverse acquisition of Ecuphar because the acquisition had made the investment into a punt on the management’s ability to merge the two businesses. I had no way of knowing whether they could make a success of it.
And of course I’ll be interested in your thoughts on £G4M .
Your willingness to give a personal guarantee to a friend (while knowing the risks) says a lot about your generosity - another reason you richly deserved your Mello 2018 awards. Although not strictly an investment matter, I am looking forward to hearing more when you want to include it in this blog.

Tristan_Treacy

Also interested in thoughts on Patisserie Holdings (LON:CAKE) . It is an impressive example of a roll out funded from operating cash flow. One detail point from the results which caught my eye is that their average fit out costs per store are £250k which they pay back in two years. That is a key metric and obviously speaks of a high degree of management control. In my banking experience I've seen companies which simply do not track things like this...and they only go one way!

Vsihv

Also interested in Patisserie Holdings (LON:CAKE) which I hold.
Would buy more but it is too expensive - thought this way previously and been wrong - fortunately I have not sold on grounds that it is too expensive.
I thought results were solid and think they are on course for a slight beat to Stocko , although they might have said as much if this was the case.

andrea34

A second vote for Xpediator (LON:XPD) please - I think the results look great... just not sure how how of the growth is organic

cafcash49

It was great to see you again at Mello. I do hope the PG sorts itself out in your favour. The memorial looks fantastic, thanks for bringing it to our attention. There are things more important than just share analysis and I enjoy your comments on life in general. Keep it up. On shares just bough back into BOO and broken my golden rule by averaging down on Trifast, will it prove to have been a wise or foolish decision?
All the best, Charles

spotono

Return To Go - £84.95 on Amazon, £8.90 on eBay. My tip of the day (!)

davidjhill

I am inclined to agree Gus, though I am thinking I may wait for the green shoots to appear before buying.

There is £2.9m disappearing from fixed costs now BRK distribution agreement has gone but I haven't quite been able to figure out if all this drops to bottom line in 2019 or if some of it gets swallowed in variable outsourced manufacturing costs but that makes a material difference to the investment case.

As Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP) are now actually in control of quality control, innovation and distribution and with a distinct brand to promote I can see them returning to circa 11p EPS plus some component of the afore mentioned £2.9m. Management should be purely focused on returning to profitability after the series of inter-connected hiccups that have screwed up the last couple of years and it feels as though this set of results and outlook draws a line under that.

My sense is to wait until I get a feel of how H2 is going and if this is according to internal expectations buy then assuming the price is in the current range.

john652

Also Patisserie Holdings (LON:CAKE) please, results look very good to me, steady, and the comments from chairman/ceo have the usual clarity. An aspect I like, and each report seems to show this, is the focus on cost management. So not cheap but executing on strategy. Although slater would be selling, if not shorting, at that PEG of 2.2

Tue 15 May 2018 - CNKS, SPRP, G4M, ZYT, CAKE, ACRL, LOOK

Book recommendation

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Paul Scott

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