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RNS Number : 6370Q  BP PLC  11 July 2025

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 11 July 2025
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Second quarter 2025 trading statement

The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.'s (bp) current
estimates and expectations for the second quarter of 2025, including data on
the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.

The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact
bp's group results for the second quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those
results. Also refer to bp's first quarter 2025 group results announcement on
29 April 2025 for second quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which
continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also
provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided
is subject to the finalization of bp's financial reporting processes and
actual results may vary.

bp's group results for the second quarter 2025 are expected to be published on
5 August 2025.

Updated 2Q25 guidance(a)

•      Reported upstream production(b) in the second quarter is now
expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter, with production higher in
oil production & operations, primarily in bpx energy, and slightly higher
in gas & low carbon energy.

•      In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c),
compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of
$(0.1) to (0.3) billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker
prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average.

•      In the oil production & operations segment, realizations(c),
compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact in the range of
$(0.6) to (0.8) billion, including the production mix effects and the price
lags on bp's production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.

•      In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior
quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:

◦     customers - seasonally higher volumes and stronger fuels margins.

◦     products - stronger realized refining margins in the range of $0.3
to 0.5 billion. There was a significantly higher level of turnaround activity.
The oil trading result is expected to be strong.

•      Other items:

◦     Net debt at the end of the second quarter is expected to be
slightly lower compared to the end of the first quarter.

◦     In other businesses & corporate, the underlying charge is
expected to be similar to the prior quarter.

◦     The second quarter results are expected to include post-tax
adjusting items relating to asset impairments in the range of $0.5 to 1.5
billion, attributable across the segments. These items are treated as
adjusting items and excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.

 

(a               ) All impacts influence bp's underlying RC
profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.

(b               ) Includes bp's share of production of
equity-accounted entities.

(c               ) Realizations are based on sales by
consolidated subsidiaries only - this excludes equity-accounted entities.

( )

Trading conditions

Brent averaged $67.88/bbl in the second quarter 2025 compared to $75.73/bbl in
the first quarter 2025.

US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.44/mmBtu in the second
quarter 2025 compared to $3.65/mmBtu in the first quarter 2025.

The bp RMM* averaged $21.1/bbl in the second quarter 2025 compared to
$15.2/bbl in the first quarter 2025.

WTI CMA* vs WCS, lagged 1 month averaged $10.01/bbl in the second quarter 2025
compared to $13.03/bbl in the first quarter 2025.

Further information on prices and bp's current rules of thumb can be found at
the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html)

( )

Cautionary Statement

In order to utilize the 'safe harbor' provisions of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the 'PSLRA') and the general
doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary
statement: The discussion in this announcement contains certain forecasts,
projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to
future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial
condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans
and objectives of bp with respect to these items. By their nature,
forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to
events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and
are outside the control of bp. Actual results or outcomes, may differ
materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of
factors, including (without limitation): price fluctuations in crude oil and
natural gas; changes in demand for bp's products; currency fluctuations;
drilling and production results; reserves estimates; sales volume and sales
mix numbers; supply and demand imbalances including as a result of direct or
indirect restrictions on production; regional pricing differentials and
refining margins; seasonal impacts on product demand and operating expenses;
resolution of trading and derivative positions for the quarter; the timing and
level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of
refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream;
natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public
expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of
terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage as well as those factors discussed under
"Risk factors" in bp's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024 as filed with the US
Securities and Exchange Commission. Furthermore, additional factors may exist
that will be relevant to bp's group results for the second quarter of 2025
that are not currently known or fully understood. Neither bp nor any of its
subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update, revise or supplement any
forward-looking statement contained in this announcement to reflect future
circumstances, events or information.

The contents of websites referred to in this announcement do not form part of
this announcement.

 

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 11 July 2025
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Appendix: Guidance issued in 1Q25 Stock Exchange Announcement(a)

 Guidance Area                                 Full Year 2025                                                                   2Q25 vs 1Q25
 Reported and underlying* upstream production  Reported upstream production to be lower and underlying upstream production to   Reported upstream production to be broadly flat
                                               be slightly lower than 2024, of which oil production & operations broadly
                                               flat and gas & low carbon energy lower
 Customers                                     Growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy    •       seasonally higher volumes
                                               and a higher contribution from TravelCenters of America; earnings growth to be

                                               supported by structural cost reduction; fuels margins to remain sensitive to     •       fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of
                                               the cost of supply; earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative        supply
                                               strength of the US dollar

 Products                                      Broadly flat refining margins and stronger underlying performance underpinned    •       a significantly higher level of planned refinery turnaround
                                               by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery; improvement   activity
                                               plans across the portfolio; similar levels of turnaround activity, with

                                               phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards 1H25, with the   •       refining margin environment to remain sensitive to the
                                               highest impact in 2Q                                                             economic outlook
 OB&C                                          Around $1bn charge
 DD&A                                          Broadly flat compared with 2024
 Underlying effective tax rate*(b)             Around 40%
 Capital expenditure*                          Around $14.5bn
 Divestment and other proceeds                 Around $3-4bn weighted towards 2H25
 Gulf of America oil settlement payments       ~$1.2bn pre-tax, of which $1.1bn 2Q

(a               ) Refer to bp's first quarter 2025 group
results announcement and bp.com for full text.

(b               ) Underlying effective tax rate is sensitive
to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and
its impact on the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses.

*        See Glossary.

Contacts

                     London                Houston

 Press Office        Rita Brown            Paul Takahashi
                     +44 (0) 7787 685821    +1 713 903 9729

 Investor Relations  Craig Marshall        Graham Collins
 bp.com/investors    +44 (0) 203 401 5592  +1 832 753 5116

Glossary

Capital expenditure is total cash capital expenditure as stated in the
condensed group cash flow statement. Capital expenditure for the operating
segments, gas & low carbon energy businesses and customers & products
businesses is presented on the same basis.

Replacement cost (RC) profit or loss reflects the replacement cost of
inventories sold in the period and is calculated as profit or loss
attributable to bp shareholders, adjusting for inventory holding gains and
losses (net of tax). RC profit or loss for the group is a non-IFRS measure.
The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is profit or loss attributable
to bp shareholders.

The Refining marker margin (RMM) is the average of regional indicator margins
weighted for bp's crude refining capacity in each region. Each regional marker
margin is based on product yields and a marker crude oil deemed appropriate
for the region. The regional indicator margins may not be representative of
the margins achieved by bp in any period because of bp's particular refinery
configurations and crude and product slate.

Technical service contract (TSC) - Technical service contract is an
arrangement through which an oil and gas company bears the risks and costs of
exploration, development and production. In return, the oil and gas company
receives entitlement to variable physical volumes of hydrocarbons,
representing recovery of the costs incurred and a profit margin which reflects
incremental production added to the oilfield.

Underlying production - 2025 underlying production, when compared with 2024,
is production after adjusting for acquisitions and divestments, curtailments,
and entitlement impacts in our production-sharing agreements/contracts and
technical service contract*.

Underlying RC profit or loss before interest and tax for the operating
segments or customers & products businesses is a non-IFRS measure and is
calculated as RC profit or loss including profit or loss attributable to
non-controlling interests before interest and tax for the operating segments
and excluding net adjusting items for the respective operating segment or
business. The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis for segments and
businesses is RC profit or loss before interest and taxation.

Underlying effective tax rate (ETR) is a non-IFRS measure. The underlying ETR
is calculated by dividing taxation on an underlying replacement cost (RC)
basis by underlying RC profit or loss before tax. Taxation on an underlying RC
basis for the group is calculated as taxation as stated on the group income
statement adjusted for taxation on inventory holding gains and losses and
total taxation on adjusting items. Information on underlying RC profit or loss
is provided below. Taxation on an underlying RC basis presented for the
operating segments is calculated through an allocation of taxation on an
underlying RC basis to each segment. bp believes it is helpful to disclose the
underlying ETR because this measure may help investors to understand and
evaluate, in the same manner as management, the underlying trends in bp's
operational performance on a comparable basis, period on period. Taxation on
an underlying RC basis and underlying ETR are non-IFRS measures. The nearest
equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is the ETR on profit or loss for the
period.

WTI CMA - The WCS differential to WTI calendar month average is based on a
quoted Platts differential and used as a generic indicator. Actual crude
differentials captured by bp's refineries may vary significantly due to a
variety of factors, such as apportionment, rationing or operational issues on
third party crude logistics infrastructure.

 

BP p.l.c.'s LEI Code 213800LH1BZH3D16G760

 

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