Gordon Haskett sees mixed year for US restaurants in 2026, Yum Brand up after upgrade

Brinker International

08/01/2026 17:48

** Gordon Haskett expects mixed year for U.S. restaurants in 2026, says lower‑income and younger consumers to remain under pressure while companies with strong same‑store sales (SSS) drivers to outperform

** Brokerage says consumer demand will stay soft in 2026, with reduced visit frequency among lower‑income diners, weaker job market, inflation outweighing stimulus

** However, brokerage says the One Big Beautiful Bill Act stimulus to be greater income growth tailwind for middle and upper-income cohorts

** Gordon Haskett favors Brinker International EAT.N, Dutch Bros BROS.N and Shake Shack SHAK.N, as they were the only top‑20 restaurant stocks to post more than 2% SSS, expects them to repeat in 2026

** Says global franchise models like Domino's DPZ.N, McDonald's MCD.N and Yum Brands YUM.N offer the best cash‑flow visibility amid persistent traffic declines

** Brokerage upgrades YUM to "buy" from "hold, sees the potential Pizza Hut divestiture along with strong SSS and unit growth to benefit co, shares up 1.2% at $152.23

** Downgrades Chipotle CMG.N to "hold" from "buy", sees traffic continue to decline in 2026

** S&P 500 Restaurants sub index .SPLRCREST down 1.3% in 2025 vs a 17.3% rise for the broader S&P 500 index .SPX

 (Reporting by Sanskriti Shekhar in Bengaluru)

 ((Sanskriti.Shekhar@thomsonreuters.com))