REG - Geiger Counter Ltd Geiger Counter - GCS - Monthly Factsheet- February 2025

Geiger CounterAnnouncement

27/03/2025 13:45

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RNS Number : 5543C  Geiger Counter Ltd  27 March 2025

 

 

Geiger Counter Limited Plc

 

Monthly Investor Report - 27(th) March 2025

(All Factsheet data is at 28 February 2025)

 

The full monthly factsheet is now available on the Company's website and a
summary can be found below.

 

NCIM - Geiger Counter Ltd - Fund Page for Geiger Counter Ltd
(https://ncim.co.uk/geiger-counter-ltd/)

 

 

Enquiries:

 

For the Investment Manager

CQS (UK) LLP

Craig Cleland

0207 201 5368

 

For the Company Secretary and Administrator

R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited

Jane De Barros/Katie De La Cour

01534 825259/01534 825337

 

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Fund Description

 

The objective of Geiger Counter Limited is to provide investors with the
potential for capital growth through investment primarily in the securities of
companies involved in the exploration, development and production of energy,
predominantly within the uranium industry. Up to 30% of the value of the
Company's investment portfolio may be invested in other resource- related
companies from outside the energy sector.

 

Portfolio Managers

 

Keith Watson and Robert Crayfourd

 

 

Key Advantages for the Investor

·      Access to mining assets in the uranium sector

·      May benefit from embedded subscription share

·      Low correlation to major asset classes

 

 

 

Key Fund Facts(1)

 

 

 Total Gross Assets                   £68.0m
 Reference Currency                   GBP
 Ordinary Shares:
   Net Asset Value                    42.06p
   Mid-Market Price                   39.60p
 Net gearing(4)                       20.99%
 Discount                             (5.85%)

 

 

Ordinary Share and NAV Performance(2)

 

                One Month    Three Months    One Year    Three Years    Five Years
                (%)          (%)             (%)         (%)            (%)
 NAV            (21.92)      (33.86)         (38.47)     (16.66)        250.79
 Share Price    (22.81)      (26.67)         (25.56)     (29.29)        208.17

 

 

Commentary(3)

 

 

 Sentiment towards uranium mining equities was negatively impacted by the
potential for a

possible Russia-Ukraine cease-fire and possible easing in Russian energy
sanctions, including the US ban on importing Russian enriched fuel. Equities
fell 20%, although this was in stark contrast to the minor 1.2% decline in the
spot U3O8 (Uranium) price in February. Given bi-partisan support to implement
the US ban on Russian fuel imports, the U3O8 price reaction appears the more
appropriate response. In addition, a ceasefire could ease tightness in the
nuclear fuel supply chain, as Russia controls 22% of global conversion
capacity, the current bottleneck. We believe the more recent spot price
weakness has been driven by geopolitical uncertainty and a sale of Kazakh
material. In comparison the term price, on which 75% of uranium is sold, has
remained stable and we believe provides a better basis on which to value
uranium equities.

 

An escalation in US-led trade tariffs that dampened the outlook for economic
growth was also

accompanied by news that US President Trump and Russian President Putin could
meet in Saudi Arabia. This raised the possibility of an end to the conflict in
the Ukraine and that sanctions against Russian energy exports, including
uranium, could be lifted. Energy markets were also weighed down ahead of the
scheduled OPEC+ gathering in early March, at which the oil producing countries
could commence unwinding of its voluntary production quotas. Over the month,
crude oil and Asian liquified natural gas (LNG) benchmark prices declined
between 4-5%. However, while energy commodities were broadly softer, the U3O8
(Uranium) price was less affected, and the spot price ended February down a
modest 1.2% at $63.75/lb. The market appeared to be shrugging off any prospect
that the US ban on the importation of enriched Russian reactor fuel could be
rescinded. Also notable was the increase in US regional gas prices as the
threat of tariffs being applied to Canadian imports, during a period of
unusually low seasonal inventory, contributed to a jump in the US natural gas
prices of c.25%. Importantly, although the Trump administration has dispensed
with any net zero messaging, it does appear to view all energy resources as
strategic, particularly stable forms of energy generation such as nuclear
power. The US-led trade war may only serve to heighten the requirement to
secure energy, motivating ongoing life extensions across the existing global
reactor fleet in established markets. This will likely support China's
significant new build pipeline which will see reactors rolled-out at a rate of
up to 10 per year.

 

During the month, Denison announced that it had been informed that a court
hearing date to ratify its Wheeler River project is scheduled to take place in
mid-December 2025. Assuming a prompt approval decision, construction for the
project could start in early-2026. Markets interpreted a similar outcome
occurring for NexGen's Rook I project, equivalent to a year's delay versus the
Q1- Q2 2024 guidance. The news weighed on sentiment with both stocks declining
c.20% over the month. We believe the delay in production will add significant
tension to the market which is already in deficit. This may be extremely
relevant to prospective western utilities whose fuel inventories, at
approximately 2 years requirements, are running at close to "just-in-time"
levels, equivalent to the time it takes to produce reactor fuel.

 

Despite U3O8's spot price proving relatively stable in February, related
equities experienced a significant sell-off as speculative holders focussed on
a potential relaxation in the US-Russian ban. As a result, the Company NAV
declined 21.9% over the month compared to a 16.5% sterling decline registered
by the Solactive Pure Play Uranium Index.

 

Though uranium mining equities performance is highly correlated with the spot
U3O8 price, the majority of product is sold under longer-term contracts. In
this context, it is notable that the February-end spot price of $63.75/lb
compared to a term price in excess of $80/lb. It is worth noting that there is
press speculation that the wind-up of the Kazakh Physical Uranium Fund holding
of 2.6Mlbs may have contributed to the recent spot price weakness. Normally
these markets are closely linked as traders can buy spot material and sell via
the term market, crystalising a risk-free gain. This relationship appears to
have broken down in February, which has frozen broader volumes as utilities
are reticent to pay higher than spot and sellers unwilling to sell below term.
In general, uncertainty has historically caused utilities to sit on the side
lines, which appears to be evident today.

 

 

                       Gross Leverage(6)  Commitment Leverage(7)

                       (%)                (%)
 Geiger Counter Ltd    121                121

 

 

CQS (UK) LLP

4th Floor, One Strand, London WC2N 5HR, United Kingdom

T: +44 (0) 20 7201 6900 | F: +44 (0) 20 7201 1200

 

CQS (US), LLC

152 West 57th Street, 40th Floor, New York, NY 10019, US

T: +1 212 259 2900 | F: +1 212 259 2699

 

Tavistock Communications

18 St. Swithin's Lane, London EC4N 8AD

T: +44 20 7920 3150 | geigercounter@tavistock.co.uk

 

Sources: (1)R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited, as at the last business
day of the month indicated at the top of this report. (2)R&H Fund Services
Limited/DataStream, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the
top of this report, total return performance net of fees and expenses based on
bid prices. These include historic returns and past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as
well as up. Please read the important legal notice at the end of this
document. (3)Market data sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The
Fund may since have exited some or all of the positions detailed in the
commentary. (4) BMO, UxC, Company data September 2023. (5) www.eia.gov
(http://www.eia.gov) . (6)CQS, as at the last business day of the month
indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3)
of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 7, 9 and 10 of Delegated
Regulation 231/2013. (7)CQS, as at the last business day of the month
indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3)
of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of Delegated
Regulation 231/2013.

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