Marubeni sees Japan aluminium premiums at $90-$135/T in 2021

Maruken Lease

07/12/2020 09:55

TOKYO, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The premiums that Japanese buyers
pay for aluminium are expected to rise toward a range of between
$90 and $135 a tonne next year thanks to recovering demand in
automobiles and construction segments, trading house Marubeni
said on Monday.
    Japan is Asia's top aluminium importer and the premiums
 PREM-ALUM-JP  for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each
quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the
benchmark for the region.
    Japanese buyers have paid premiums of between $79 and $88 a
tonne this year, compared with between $83 and $108 in 2019, as
the COVID-19 pandemic collapsed demand of the light metal.
 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N2GL16U urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N2GL17E
    But global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers
premiums of $138-$140 per tonne for January-March quarter next
year, up 57%-59% from the current quarter's $88, to reflect
solid demand and tighter supplies.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2II0K0
    Marubeni, a major Japanese aluminium trader, predicted the
premiums would rise to $115-135 a tonne in January-March and
stay at $90-130 a tonne for the rest of the next year.
    "The premiums will jump next quarter as local demand is
picking up to near pre-pandemic levels and a tight container
market is causing some delays in delivery," Hiroki Tomita,
general manager at Marubeni's light metals section, told
reporters.
    "The local market has tightened also because global
suppliers have increased shipments to elsewhere in Asia where
premiums had been higher than Japan," he added.   
    Driven by recovering industry demand and hopes for wider use
of the lighter and recyclable metal amid growing consumer
conscious over environment, London aluminium prices  CMAL3  have
risen to $2,080 a tonne last week, the highest since Oct 2018.
    "But the rally has been a bit overdone," Tomita said,
forecasting an average prices to stay between $1,850 and $1,900
a tonne in the first half, followed by $1,900-$1,950 in the
second-half. 

 (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi, editing by Louise Heavens)
 ((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4563-2761;))